Dolphins win total odds after Week 2: Miami lost 35-13 at San Francisco and is 0-2, and a ladder that was already harsher than the AI panel went lower again. The four-win contract, 46¢ at the midpoint on September 14, sits at 34¢ bid, 35¢ ask. Five wins fell from 28.5¢ to 22¢ bid, 23¢ ask. Add every rung and the market carries 3.12 expected Dolphins wins, down from the 3.3 this page read nine days ago; the seven blind AI models put the season at four wins and 3.9 expected, and those numbers stay on the record.
Prices as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026, 7:31 a.m. ET, Kalshi bids and asks before fees. The panel numbers are from its September 14 run.
| Miami wins at least | Kalshi now | September 14 | Panel |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 games | 53¢ bid, 54¢ ask | 61.5¢ | 73% |
| 4 games | 34¢ bid, 35¢ ask | 46¢ | 53% |
| 5 games | 22¢ bid, 23¢ ask | 28.5¢ | 35% |
| 6 games | 13¢ bid, 17¢ ask | 15.5¢ | 21% |
A 34.5¢ contract pays $1.00 if Miami gets to four wins and nothing if it does not; the midpoint reads as the crowd's percentage chance. New to season-long contracts? Our guide to betting NFL futures on Kalshi walks through how they pay and when.
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What The Second Loss Did To The Ladder
Miami went to San Francisco priced at 10¢ bid, 12¢ ask to win and lost by 22. The season market treated that as confirmation, not news: the Dolphins were 32nd of 32 before the game and still are, at 3.1 expected wins on the board that tracks every ladder, behind Tennessee at 4.5.
The rung that moved most since this page's first read is four wins, down eleven and a half cents from a 46¢ midpoint to 34.5¢, one cent wide on both dates. Three wins went from 61.5¢ to 53.5¢, so the ladder now crosses 50 cents at 3.18 wins. The far end tightened too: the eight-win contract was quoted 1¢ bid, 25¢ ask on September 14, too wide to read, and is now 4¢ bid, 7¢ ask, a 5.5¢ midpoint against the panel's 6.5%.
History, on the record from September 14, said the first loss was worth less than the market charged for it: the 38 team-seasons since 2011 that came off a losing year and lost Week 1 by 14 or more reached four wins 78.9% of the time and five wins 63.2%. That cut was made after one game and is not re-cut here. The market now sits 44 points under it on four wins and 41 on five; the panel started from that table and marked Miami down for the roster losses.
The roster is the case for the low number: a 7-10 team that released Tua Tagovailoa with $99.2 million in dead money, traded Jaylen Waddle, released Tyreek Hill and Bradley Chubb, and changed general manager and head coach. ESPN put the dead cap at $180 million and called it the youngest roster in the NFL; its matchup predictor made Miami the underdog in all 17 games before the season.
The Board
Each row is a separate yes-or-no contract that pays if Miami finishes the regular season with at least that many wins; ties and playoff games do not count. The panel column is the September 14 median of seven models.
| Miami wins at least | Bid | Ask | Mid | Panel (Sept 14) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 game | 90¢ | 92¢ | 91¢ | 96.5% |
| 2 games | 67¢ | 73¢ | 70¢ | 88% |
| 3 games | 53¢ | 54¢ | 53.5¢ | 73% |
| 4 games | 34¢ | 35¢ | 34.5¢ | 53% |
| 5 games | 22¢ | 23¢ | 22.5¢ | 35% |
| 6 games | 13¢ | 17¢ | 15¢ | 21% |
| 7 games | 8¢ | 12¢ | 10¢ | 12% |
| 8 games | 4¢ | 7¢ | 5.5¢ | 6.5% |
| 9 games | 2¢ | 4¢ | 3¢ | |
| 10 games | 0¢ | 7¢ | 3.5¢ | |
| 11 games | 0¢ | 2¢ | 1¢ | |
| 12 games | 0¢ | 2¢ | 1¢ | |
| 13 games | 0¢ | 1¢ | 0.5¢ | |
| 14 games | 0¢ | 1¢ | 0.5¢ | |
| 15 games | 0¢ | 1¢ | 0.5¢ | |
| 16 games | settled no | 0¢ | ||
| 17 games | settled no | 0¢ |
The panel numbers on this page are estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Every number in this piece gets graded in public once the market settles, on the full graded scoreboard.
Read the three-, four- and five-win rows first; each is one cent wide, and that is where the season is decided. Add the bids and the market implies 2.93 wins; add the asks, 3.31; the midpoints, 3.12. Against the panel's 3.9, the gap has grown from 0.6 wins to 0.8 in nine days, and it grew on the rung that matters: four wins is 18.5 points under the panel now and was 7 under on September 14.
More from the same panel: all 32 NFL win totals · the worst-record contract · the Giants' win total.
Every Seat's Number
Seven models scored this season on September 14, after the Las Vegas game and before any saw a price, then read each other anonymously and revised or held. The market has since moved under every one of them on four wins, ChatGPT included.
| Seat | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 8+ | Median wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Sonnet | 79% | 62% | 44% | 28% | 8% | 4 |
| Claude Opus | 77% | 60% | 42% | 27% | 9% | 4 |
| Claude Fable | 75% | 57% | 39% | 25% | 8.4% | 4 |
| Grok | 73% | 53% | 35% | 21% | 6.5% | 4 |
| Gemini | 71% | 49% | 31% | 17% | 3.5% | 3 |
| Kimi | 62% | 41% | 26% | 13.5% | 3.5% | 3 |
| ChatGPT | 62% | 39% | 21% | 10% | 2% | 3 |
| Panel median | 73% | 53% | 35% | 21% | 6.5% | 4 |
| Kalshi mid, Sept 23 | 53.5¢ | 34.5¢ | 22.5¢ | 15¢ | 5.5¢ |
Every seat is graded against real settlements; records to date: Gemini 86% on 9,496 graded calls, Grok 84% on 7,920, Kimi 86% on 4,894. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
The split was clean: the three Claude seats and Grok at four wins, ChatGPT, Gemini and Kimi at three. On September 14 ChatGPT's 21% on five wins was the only seat below the market's bid on that rung; today the 22¢ bid sits one cent above it and under everyone else.
Where The Panel Changed Its Mind
On the record from September 14. The revision round moved three of the seven models, and the biggest move was a seat catching its own arithmetic. Opus opened at a median of five wins, with 59.5% on the five-win rung, the highest number on the panel, and came down to 42%:
Opus"A per-game win chance near 0.19 is consistent with ESPN's preview, where Miami's best single game is 33%. My round-1 median of 5 needed about 31% per game, which is higher than that best game. That was an internal inconsistency, not a matter of conformity."
Gemini went the other way, from 22% on five wins to 31%: "I realized my initial drop of the 5+ rung to 22% effectively double-counted the offseason teardown penalty." Kimi nudged its middle rungs up a point after another seat noted that Kansas City and Cincinnati were 6-11 teams last season. Fable held every number, and its reason is the cleanest statement of the panel's view:
Fable"It is a smaller teardown charge than the record $180M dead-cap purge and simultaneous QB/HC/GM/WR1/WR2 churn support, and I already price Willis's rushing inside 'replacement, not worse.' No peer surfaced a fact outside the card, so I keep my ladder unchanged."
Where The Four Wins Come From
On the record from September 14. Every model named nearly the same short list, and that list is the whole case for the three- and four-win medians. Seven of the remaining 15 games are against teams that won 10 or more last season: New England twice, Buffalo twice, Denver, Chicago and the Chargers; San Francisco was the eighth and is played. The softer half on paper was Kansas City (September 27) and Cincinnati (October 11), both visiting after 6-11 seasons, the Jets twice after a 3-14 year, then Minnesota, Detroit, Indianapolis and Green Bay.
Two weeks in, the soft half is not soft. Kansas City is 2-0 and its ladder carries 11.2 expected wins, fifth in the league; Cincinnati is 2-0 at 11.4. The Jets' five-win contract sits at 78¢ bid, 80¢ ask, three and a half times Miami's midpoint on the same rung. The two Jets games and the two home games every seat counted are not the gifts they look like on a 2025 schedule, and the market prices them lower now than when the panel ran.
The sportsbook side of the same number lives on our Miami Dolphins win total over/under page.
Week 3: Kansas City At Miami
The Chiefs visit Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, September 27, at 1:00 p.m. ET, and Miami is priced at 14¢ bid, 15¢ ask to win, with Kansas City at 85¢ bid, 86¢ ask. Kansas City to win by more than 7.5 points sits at 59¢ bid, 61¢ ask, and by more than 10.5 at 52¢ bid, 53¢ ask; Miami to win by more than 1.5 is 12¢ bid, 13¢ ask. On the total, the 46.5 rung is the coin flip, with the over at 49¢ bid, 50¢ ask.
At 0-2 with 15 games left, four wins needs four of the rest. Win Sunday and it needs three of the last 14, and the three-win contract, 53¢ bid, 54¢ ask today, reprices first. Lose and it needs four of 14, and the ladder barely moves, because a home loss priced at 85¢ is already in every rung. Last week a Miami win was priced at 11¢ and did not come; this week it is 14.5¢, so a win moves the ladder a lot and a loss moves it almost nothing.
What Moves The Ladder Next
- Sunday, September 27, against Kansas City. The first of the two home games every seat counted, now against a 2-0 team carrying 11.2 expected wins. A win puts the four-win seats back in the argument; a loss confirms a price that already assumes it.
- Sunday, October 11, against Cincinnati. The second counted home game, before the Week 6 bye. Lose both and the three-win seats, ChatGPT, Gemini and Kimi, are the ones the market is closest to, and it is already under them.
- Sunday, October 25, at the Jets. The Jets are 1-1 and their ladder carries 6.9 expected wins. A Miami win there is the first result that would move the five-win rung back toward the panel.
Settlement Timeline
| Date | What happens |
|---|---|
| Sunday, September 27, 2026 | Week 3 vs. Kansas City, Miami 14¢ bid, 15¢ ask to win |
| Sunday, October 11, 2026 | Week 5 vs. Cincinnati, the second counted home game |
| Week 6 | Bye |
| Sunday, October 25, 2026 | At the New York Jets, the first of two |
| Sunday, November 29, 2026 | Vs. the New York Jets, the second |
| Week 18 | At New England, the last game that counts |
| Monday, January 18, 2027 | Listed expiration of every KXNFLWINS-27MIA contract |
A fourth Miami win in December settles the four-win contract early. This board is re-scored when the story moves; prices last read September 23, 2026, 7:31 a.m. ET.
The Bottom Line
Seven models that never saw a price agreed the teardown was real and put the season at three or four wins. Traders went lower on September 11 with nothing in the news, lower again after Las Vegas, and lower still after San Francisco: four wins at 34.5¢ is under every seat on the panel, and five wins at 22.5¢ is under all but one. The market bounced a tenth of a win on Wednesday. Sunday against Kansas City, at 14.5¢, is the first result that can move it more than that.
More on this: Browns Win Total 2026: The Panic Lasted One Week · Cardinals Win Total 2026: The Ladder Kept The Chargers Win · Giants Win Total 2026: The Buying Lasted One Week · Patriots Win Total: The Books Agree On The Number. The Machines Don't · Chase And Higgins Decide It: Bengals vs Dolphins Picks
