One week of the 2026 NFL season moved 21 of the 32 win-total lines on Kalshi by at least half a win. Arizona gained a win and a half by beating the Chargers. Chicago gained 1.29 wins by scoring 59 points in Carolina. The Los Angeles Chargers lost a win and a half in one afternoon, and Dallas, the team this page opened its last edition with, lost 1.46.
The pair that opened that edition, the Cowboys and the Patriots, were priced three hundredths of a win apart on September 2. Both lost on opening weekend, Dallas by 28-20 to the Giants and New England by 13-10 in Seattle, with Denver at Kansas City still to play on Monday night. At the ten-win rung the exchange still cannot tell them apart: Dallas's ten-or-more contract is bid 39¢ and offered at 45¢, New England's 44¢ and 47¢.
The eight AI models that priced this board without seeing a quote have not moved, because they cannot. Their numbers are frozen from the September 2 run and will be graded against the season as they stand. What one week did was move the board toward them on some teams and away from them on others, and the more useful thing it did was change what the board itself can and cannot say. That starts with the shape of the ladders, and it ends with a Colts contract that traded at 52¢ on Saturday and 37¢ on Sunday night.
Updated September 14, 2026 · 18 min read · by Jake Hari
The Board Went One-Sided On The Far Rungs
Every team on this board is priced as a ladder: 17 separate yes-or-no contracts running from one-or-more wins up to 17, each with its own bid and its own ask. On September 2 every ladder carried a two-sided quote at the rungs that mattered, and the previous edition of this page added up every ladder at the midpoint of every rung. A week into the season that arithmetic no longer works, and the reason is worth a paragraph because it changes how every number below should be read.
Twenty-nine rungs have already settled, and one more, the Rams' 17-or-more, had not been marked final at this fetch. A team's one-or-more contract pays out with its first win, and its 17-or-more contract dies with its first loss. Of the 515 still trading, 193 are quoted 10¢ wide or tighter, and 245 have no bid at all or no offer at all. The Colts' 11-or-more contract is bid at nothing and offered at 45¢. Dallas's nine-or-more is bid at 7¢ and offered at 57¢, one rung below a ten-or-more contract bid at 39¢. A midpoint of those quotes is not a price. It is the average of two absences.
So this edition reads every rung through its neighbors. A team cannot win ten games without winning nine, so the nine-or-more contract is worth at least whatever anyone will pay for ten-or-more, and no more than anyone is asking for eight-or-more. Applying that to all 17 rungs turns Dallas's nine-or-more from 7¢ to 57¢ into 39¢ to 57¢. The line is where that tightened ladder crosses even money; the ladder cost is the tightened ladder added up at its bids and again at its asks, the two ends of what the order book will actually accept. Where the previous edition's line and this one differ by more than a game result explains, this is why: Detroit's raw quotes put its line at 10.83, its neighbors put it at 11.43, and 11.43 is the number in the table. It also means this edition's moves are measured against a yardstick that changed: on the raw quotes, like for like, 24 lines moved at least half a win, and the smaller tightened count is the one in the title.
Add the tightened ladders up and the board projects between 235.3 wins at the bid and 311.7 at the ask, with 272 available in a 17-game season. On September 2 that range was 264.6 to 285.0. The midpoint, 273.5, lands a win and a half above the arithmetic ceiling, but a range 76 wins wide is no longer a test of anything. The panel's constraint has not changed. Each model had to land its 32 numbers between 270 and 274 wins, and the eight boards came in between 270.0 and 273.5. The 32 medians add to 272.4. What has changed is that the band test has gone soft. The panel now sits above the board's tightened ceiling on 5 teams and below its floor on 6, with 21 inside a band that in most cases is two or three wins wide. The comparisons this page can still make honestly are line against median for every team, and the band only where it still bites, and the table carries both.
The Board: All 32 Teams
The line column is where a team's tightened ladder crosses even money, and since Sept 2 is how far it moved from the previous edition. The panel column is the seat median: the middle of eight independent numbers, not their average, frozen since September 2. Where the panel lands inside the ladder's bid-to-ask cost the quoted spread can still explain the difference; where it lands outside, it cannot, and this week that band is wide enough that only 11 teams land outside it. Teams the panel sits above the ask lead the table and teams it sits below the bid close it, each ordered by how far outside the band they sit; the 21 in between are ordered by the panel's distance from the line, and the out-of-band rows carry that distance too.
| Team | 2025 | Week 1 | Kalshi line | Since Sept 2 | Ladder cost, bid to ask | Panel | Panel vs ladder |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 14-3 (+170) | L 10-13 at SEA | 9.74 | -0.64 | 8.09 to 9.58 | 11.75 | +2.17 above ask (+2.01 vs line) |
| Houston Texans | 12-5 (+109) | L 31-36 vs BUF | 10.33 | -0.57 | 9.00 to 10.14 | 11.25 | +1.11 above ask (+0.92 vs line) |
| Atlanta Falcons | 8-9 (-48) | L 13-20 at PIT | 6.07 | -1.05 | 4.25 to 7.38 | 8.45 | +1.07 above ask (+2.38 vs line) |
| Los Angeles Rams | 12-5 (+172) | L 7-27 vs SF (Melbourne) | 11.42 | -1.11 | 9.92 to 11.60 | 12.00 | +0.40 above ask (+0.58 vs line) |
| Miami Dolphins | 7-10 (-77) | L 13-27 at LV | 3.58 | -0.63 | 3.10 to 4.21 | 4.50 | +0.29 above ask (+0.92 vs line) |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8-9 (+54) | L 23-41 vs BAL | 8.34 | -0.22 | 6.35 to 9.54 | 9.50 | +1.16 vs line, inside |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 13-4 (+138) | W 34-10 vs CLE | 10.26 | +0.41 | 7.93 to 11.13 | 11.00 | +0.74 vs line, inside |
| Cleveland Browns | 5-12 (-100) | L 10-34 at JAX | 5.15 | -0.59 | 4.04 to 6.38 | 5.50 | +0.35 vs line, inside |
| Seattle Seahawks | 14-3 (+191) | W 13-10 vs NE | 11.48 | +0.05 | 9.28 to 11.75 | 11.50 | +0.02 vs line, inside |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 11-6 (+28) | L 14-26 vs ARI | 9.00 | -1.52 | 7.99 to 9.80 | 9.00 | +0.00 vs line, inside |
| Denver Broncos | 14-3 (+90) | Mon. night at KC, unplayed | 10.54 | +0.15 | 8.49 to 10.70 | 10.50 | -0.04 vs line, inside |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6-11 (+34) | Mon. night vs DEN, unplayed | 10.59 | +0.13 | 8.55 to 10.63 | 10.30 | -0.29 vs line, inside |
| Tennessee Titans | 3-14 (-194) | L 10-23 vs NYJ | 5.34 | -1.10 | 3.93 to 5.93 | 5.00 | -0.34 vs line, inside |
| Carolina Panthers | 8-9 (-69) | L 37-59 vs CHI | 7.04 | -0.51 | 5.59 to 8.65 | 6.60 | -0.44 vs line, inside |
| Dallas Cowboys | 7-9-1 (-40) | L 20-28 at NYG | 8.89 | -1.46 | 7.45 to 10.10 | 8.25 | -0.64 vs line, inside |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 10-7 (+10) | W 20-13 vs ATL | 9.21 | +0.58 | 7.44 to 10.09 | 8.50 | -0.71 vs line, inside |
| Washington Commanders | 5-12 (-95) | L 22-24 at PHI | 7.22 | +0.22 | 5.13 to 8.34 | 6.50 | -0.72 vs line, inside |
| New York Jets | 3-14 (-203) | W 23-10 at TEN | 6.69 | +0.66 | 5.53 to 7.88 | 5.80 | -0.89 vs line, inside |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-9 (-31) | L 27-33 at CIN | 8.65 | -0.24 | 6.93 to 9.91 | 7.75 | -0.90 vs line, inside |
| New Orleans Saints | 6-11 (-77) | L 30-31 (OT) at DET | 8.07 | -0.32 | 5.73 to 8.79 | 7.00 | -1.07 vs line, inside |
| Buffalo Bills | 12-5 (+116) | W 36-31 at HOU | 11.83 | +0.69 | 10.25 to 11.88 | 10.75 | -1.08 vs line, inside |
| Minnesota Vikings | 9-8 (+11) | W 39-22 vs GB | 9.62 | +0.04 | 6.70 to 10.65 | 8.50 | -1.12 vs line, inside |
| San Francisco 49ers | 12-5 (+66) | W 27-7 vs LAR (Melbourne) | 11.29 | +0.73 | 9.59 to 11.71 | 10.00 | -1.29 vs line, inside |
| Green Bay Packers | 9-7-1 (+31) | L 22-39 at MIN | 9.57 | -0.67 | 7.98 to 10.65 | 8.25 | -1.32 vs line, inside |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 11-6 (+54) | W 24-22 vs WSH | 11.37 | +0.42 | 8.24 to 11.84 | 10.00 | -1.37 vs line, inside |
| Detroit Lions | 9-8 (+68) | W 31-30 (OT) vs NO | 11.43 | +0.00 | 9.99 to 12.33 | 10.00 | -1.43 vs line, inside |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6-11 (-78) | W 33-27 vs TB | 11.55 | +0.77 | 9.88 to 11.54 | 9.00 | -0.88 below bid (-2.55 vs line) |
| Chicago Bears | 11-6 (+26) | W 59-37 at CAR | 11.06 | +1.29 | 9.34 to 11.29 | 8.50 | -0.84 below bid (-2.56 vs line) |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 3-14 (-191) | W 27-13 vs MIA | 6.87 | +0.54 | 6.01 to 8.24 | 5.25 | -0.76 below bid (-1.62 vs line) |
| New York Giants | 4-13 (-58) | W 28-20 vs DAL | 8.94 | +1.18 | 7.58 to 9.47 | 7.00 | -0.58 below bid (-1.94 vs line) |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3-14 (-133) | W 26-14 at LAC | 5.93 | +1.50 | 5.04 to 7.21 | 4.50 | -0.54 below bid (-1.43 vs line) |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8-9 (+26) | W 41-23 at IND | 12.12 | +0.69 | 10.02 to 12.38 | 10.00 | -0.02 below bid (-2.12 vs line) |
The row worth a second look is Chicago. The panel's eight seats put the Bears between 8.0 and 8.8 wins, one of the tightest spreads on the sheet, and the board was within a game and a half of them on September 2 at 9.77. Chicago's 59 points in Carolina, in the highest-scoring season opener in league history at 96 combined, moved the line to 11.06, and the 11-or-more contract that closed September 2 quoted 34¢ to 36¢ is bid 47¢ and offered at 55¢ now. One game moved the market 1.29 wins away from a panel it had never been more than a win and a half from.
One reminder on the since Sept 2 column: it compares this edition's tightened line with the line the previous edition printed from raw midpoints, so a little of each move is the yardstick rather than the week, and Detroit is the one team whose direction that changes.
Four of the eight seats on this panel carry public graded records against real market settlements: Gemini 86% on 8,779 graded calls · Kimi 86% on 4,394 graded calls · GLM 83% on 4,020 graded calls · DeepSeek 84% on 4,083 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
Underneath each of those lines is a 17-rung ladder. Here are the two teams this page opened its last edition with, across the nine rungs that surround the line, quoted as bid and ask rather than as a midpoint, because after one week the midpoint would hide what the book is doing:
| Wins | New England, bid / ask | Dallas, bid / ask |
|---|---|---|
| 6+ | 64¢ / 99¢ | 63¢ / 100¢ |
| 7+ | 43¢ / 83¢ | 32¢ / 100¢ |
| 8+ | 70¢ / 75¢ | 44¢ / 89¢ |
| 9+ | 59¢ / 67¢ | 7¢ / 57¢ |
| 10+ | 44¢ / 47¢ | 39¢ / 45¢ |
| 11+ | 29¢ / 38¢ | 21¢ / 29¢ |
| 12+ | 21¢ / 24¢ | 6¢ / 26¢ |
| 13+ | 9¢ / 26¢ | 13¢ / 39¢ |
| 14+ | 1¢ / 6¢ | 2¢ / 42¢ |
On September 2 both teams' ten-or-more contracts sat at 54.5¢. Both lost their openers and both contracts fell to the two quotes at the top of this page, a few cents apart on the one rung where both books are tight. Everything else in the table is the one-sided market described above. New England's seven-or-more is bid 43¢ under an eight-or-more bid at 70¢, which is why the tightening exists, and Dallas's nine-or-more has no real bid at all. Read that way the Cowboys' line is 8.89 and the Patriots' is 9.74; read at the ten-win rung, the exchange still cannot split them. The Cowboys win total board breaks down the Dallas half on its own, and the Patriots win total board does the same for New England.
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More live boards from the same panel: NFL playoff odds has Buffalo at 78¢ and Baltimore at 76¢ to reach January · best regular-season record has Baltimore alone on top at 20¢ · worst record has Miami at 36¢, with Cleveland and Tennessee at 20¢. Prices fetched September 14, 2026.
Every Seat's Number
| Team | Fable | Opus | Sonnet | ChatGPT | Gemini | Kimi | GLM | DeepSeek | Panel median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 11.5 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 12 | 12 | 12.5 | 12.00 |
| New England Patriots | 11.5 | 11.5 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12 | 11.5 | 12 | 11.5 | 11.75 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.50 |
| Houston Texans | 11 | 11 | 11.5 | 11 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11 | 11.25 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 10.5 | 10.5 | 11.3 | 11.2 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10.5 | 11.00 |
| Buffalo Bills | 10.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 11 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 11 | 10.75 |
| Denver Broncos | 10.5 | 10.5 | 11.2 | 10.6 | 10 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 10.50 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10 | 10.5 | 10.1 | 10 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10 | 10.5 | 10.30 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 10 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10.00 |
| Detroit Lions | 10 | 10 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10.00 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 10 | 10 | 9.6 | 10.4 | 9 | 10 | 9.5 | 10 | 10.00 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 9.5 | 10 | 11 | 9.3 | 10 | 9.5 | 10 | 10 | 10.00 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 9.5 | 9 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 10 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.50 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 9 | 9 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.5 | 9.00 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 9 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.5 | 9.00 |
| Chicago Bears | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8 | 8.50 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.50 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 9 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 9 | 8.50 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 8.5 | 8 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 8 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.45 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 8 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 8 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8 | 8.5 | 8.25 |
| Green Bay Packers | 8.5 | 8 | 9.3 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.25 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.75 |
| New Orleans Saints | 7 | 7 | 5.8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5.5 | 7.00 |
| New York Giants | 7 | 7.5 | 7 | 7.1 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5.5 | 7.00 |
| Carolina Panthers | 7 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 7 | 6 | 6.5 | 6.60 |
| Washington Commanders | 7 | 7 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 7 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.50 |
| New York Jets | 6 | 6 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5.80 |
| Cleveland Browns | 5.5 | 5 | 5 | 5.5 | 6 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 5.50 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 5 | 5 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 6 | 5.5 | 5 | 5.5 | 5.25 |
| Tennessee Titans | 5 | 5 | 4.6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 5.00 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4 | 3.5 | 4.50 |
| Miami Dolphins | 5 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4 | 4.50 |
Prices as of September 14, 2026, 08:44 UTC. The panel's numbers are frozen from its September 2 run and will be graded as they stand. It ran price-blind: each model received a data card of 2025 records, point differentials, injury reports current to that date, 2026 schedules and the offseason transaction ledger, and no market number of any kind.
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Where Week 1 Moved The Board Toward The Panel
Dallas was the widest gap on the low side on September 2, a ladder costing 9.48 to 10.05 wins against a panel median of 8.25. Then the Giants beat the Cowboys 28-20 in John Harbaugh's first game as their coach, and the ten-or-more contract that sat at 54.5¢ on September 2 is bid 39¢ and offered at 45¢. The line is 8.89, the tightened ladder costs 7.45 to 10.10, and the panel's 8.25 sits inside it. The case for the market was real: Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, nine home games, a neutral 0.4931 schedule, and an offseason that added Rashan Gary, Von Miller and, in the last days of August, the tackle Broderick Jones from Pittsburgh. The case against it was that 511 points allowed was the whole season, that Dallas then traded the interior defensive lineman Osa Odighizuwa to San Francisco, and, as of Sunday, that the defense gave up 28 more.
"471 points scored says the offense was fine and 511 allowed says the defense was everything, and while Gary, Von Miller, Durant and Thompson arrived, trading Odighizuwa subtracts from the exact unit that lost them the season." — Opus
One seat went much lower, and the reason it gave does not survive a check. Sonnet held Dallas at 6.5 on the grounds that "the card places Micah Parsons on Green Bay's roster — Dallas lost its best defender." [Editor's note: Parsons is a Packer, but he has been one since August 28, 2025, before Dallas played a snap of last season. The 7-9-1 record and the -40 differential were produced by a defense that did not have him, so his absence is already in the price rather than a new subtraction from it. Two other seats objected to the same reasoning at the time.] Drop that seat entirely and the panel's Dallas median rises to 8.50, which the board now quotes comfortably inside its ladder. The gap the previous edition led with closed in one game, and it closed from the market's side.
Green Bay was the second-widest at 8.25 against a floor of 9.25. The Packers lost 39-22 in Minnesota, where the Vikings closed the game with 29 straight points, and the line moved from 10.24 to 9.57. The panel's reasoning there was a roster ledger rather than an argument: Micah Parsons on the physically-unable-to-perform list, Josh Jacobs absent (he was not in the Week 1 box score; MarShawn Lloyd and Chris Brooks split the Green Bay backfield), and Rashan Gary, Elgton Jenkins, Romeo Doubs and Rasheed Walker all gone, against the 0.5381 schedule the card scores as the third-hardest in the league. The Parsons entry now has dates on it: he misses the first four games on reserve/PUP, the Packers can open his practice window after Week 2, and general manager Brian Gutekunst said on September 1 that once the four-week window ends the team expects him to be "pretty close" (Pro Football Talk).
Cincinnati is the one that went the other way. The panel and the market were arguing about which fact matters: Joe Burrow listed active, Dexter Lawrence arrived from the Giants for a first-round pick, Jonathan Allen signed out of Minnesota, and the third-easiest slate on the card at 0.4498, against 6-11 with a -78 differential, a 6.8-win Pythagorean profile, and Trey Hendrickson gone to Baltimore. The board read the schedule; the panel read the margin. On Sunday the Bengals forced four turnovers and beat Tampa Bay 33-27, the line moved from 10.78 to 11.55, and the panel's 9.00 now sits 0.88 of a win below the ladder's tightened bid of 9.88, the widest gap on the low side of the board.
The High Side, And A Colts Contract That Fell 15 Cents
Jacksonville was the second-widest split on the high side on September 2, 11.00 against a ceiling of 9.73. The Jaguars beat Cleveland 34-10 on four Trevor Lawrence touchdown passes, the line moved from 9.85 to 10.26, and the panel's 11.00 is now inside a ladder costing 7.93 to 11.13. Every seat had them at 10.5 or better. One game moved the market most of the way there.
Atlanta went the wrong way for the panel. The Falcons went 8-9 with a -48 differential and the exchange would not quote them above 7.25 wins; every seat put them at 7.9 or better. Then they lost 20-13 in Pittsburgh, on a late T.J. Watt interception return, and the line dropped from 7.12 to 6.07, the fifth-largest fall on the board. The panel's 8.45 now sits 1.07 above the tightened ask of 7.38.
"-48 diff, but Stefanski replaces the fired Morris, Tua signed with Penix (ACL) hopeful for Week 1 … and the schedule is a soft 0.4654 with nine home games." — Opus
Each of those is the kind of input a preseason board is bad at pricing: a head coach with a six-season record replacing a fired one, a quarterback room that changed shape in August, and one of the five easiest schedules in the league, tied with Indianapolis at 0.4654. None of it was tested by one road loss to a team the panel has at 8.5, and the panel's number does not move on it. The market's did.
Houston is the second-widest gap on the whole board now, and it got there by losing 36-31 to Buffalo on a late Josh Allen touchdown pass. The line moved from 10.90 to 10.33; the panel's 11.25 sits 1.11 above the tightened ask of 10.14, where on September 2 it sat 0.78 above.
Indianapolis is the same species of argument as Atlanta, 9.50 against an 8.63 ceiling on September 2, and the panel's only stated hesitation was that nobody had named a starting quarterback. That resolved. Daniel Jones started against Baltimore and went 19 of 31 for 166 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while Lamar Jackson threw for 324 yards and Derrick Henry ran for three touchdowns in a 41-23 Ravens win. The nine-or-more contract, the rung a 9.50 median says is worth more than half, tells the week's story in a handful of prints. It traded at 46¢ at the close of September 2. It took two buy-side blocks of 1,000 and 1,200 contracts on September 3 and reached 48¢. On the morning of September 9 it absorbed 1,357 contracts of selling that took it to 43¢ and a 40¢ close, and nobody reported a reason, so this page will not supply one. It was bought back to 52¢ by Saturday. At 5:03 PM Eastern on Sunday, after the loss, it traded at 37¢, and it is bid 35¢ and offered at 40¢ now. The line moved only 0.22 on the week, from 8.56 to 8.34, and the panel's 9.50 is inside a ladder that now costs 6.35 to 9.54. That is what a one-sided book does to a disagreement: it does not settle it, it stops being able to measure it.
What Moves These Numbers
Where The Panel Changed Its Mind, And What Week 1 Did To It
Ten of the 32 medians moved after the seats read each other, and the most useful revisions were corrections of fact rather than changes of opinion. One week of football has now tested three of them. Two seats independently caught a third seat docking Seattle for a coaching change that belongs to a different team.
"Forecaster C: 'SEA … Despite firing Pete Carroll.' Wrong team. The card's coaching-change list shows Carroll fired after being hired in 2025, which is Las Vegas (now Klint Kubiak). Seattle's head coach is Mike Macdonald, entering season three, and there is no Seattle coaching change on the card." — Opus
The largest single move on the board came from the seat that had made the opposite Seattle mistake. Sonnet opened at 14.7 on the Seahawks and finished at 12.0, a 2.7-win correction. Seattle then beat New England 13-10, and its line moved from 11.43 to 11.48, which is to say it did not move: the correction held, and the panel's 11.50 sits on top of it.
"PIT's injury entry — 'DK Metcalf WR: Questionable… expected to be ready for Week 1 against the Falcons' — places Metcalf on Pittsburgh, which I hadn't caught round one; Charbonnet is out on ACL." — Sonnet
That was the third correction Week 1 tested, a roster fix: Sonnet had DK Metcalf on the wrong team in round one. Pittsburgh then beat Atlanta 20-13 on the late Watt interception and its line moved from 8.63 to 9.21, three-quarters of a win above the corrected 8.50.
And the most valuable revision on the board was a refusal, and it is the one Week 1 embarrassed. Kimi held San Francisco at 9.5 while five of the other seven sat between 10.0 and 11.5.
"The +66 diff is a 9.9-win pythagorean base, and the card shows the league's worst injury list: Pearsall's season-ending PCL surgery, Kirk and Hobbs on IR, '+33 further current entries.' Evans and Deebo are 30-something patches, not multipliers." — Kimi
San Francisco beat the Rams 27-7 in Melbourne and its line moved from 10.56 to 11.29, away from Kimi and past every seat on the panel. One game does not settle an injury-list argument, but the refusal's first test went the other way.
What Would Change The Panel's Mind
Four things, all checkable, each with the direction it pushes:
- A Named Indianapolis Starting Quarterback. The panel's 9.50 was a discount for an unresolved room; name a starter and the number goes up, it said. Resolved: Daniel Jones started Week 1. The market took the 41-23 loss instead and moved the other way.
- Micah Parsons Off Green Bay's PUP List On Schedule. Return on time and Green Bay's 8.25 rises; a setback pushes it toward the bottom of the panel's range. Dated: four games on reserve/PUP, a practice window that can open after Week 2, and a general manager saying "pretty close" after that.
- Anything That Resolves New England's Schedule. The Patriots draw a 0.5311 slate, the sixth-hardest in the league and the toughest faced by any team the panel puts above 11 wins. Three September results against it will move this number more than any roster news. One of three in: 13-10 in Seattle on the season's opening night, Drake Maye intercepted three times.
- Dallas's Defensive Front Through Four Weeks. Points allowed is the entire disagreement. A defense that holds up early closes the gap from the market's side; another 30-point Sunday closes it from the panel's. One Sunday in: 28 allowed to the Giants, and the gap closed from the market's side.
Settlement Timeline
| Contracts | 32 team ladders, 17 rungs each, 544 in the KXNFLWINS series; 29 rungs already settled |
| Settles On | Regular-season wins only. Ties are not wins; playoff results do not count |
| Week 18 | January 10, 2027 |
| Listed Expiration | January 18, 2027 |
| Traded SO Far | 4,632,539 contracts, 3,179,047 still held open |
| Prices As Of | September 14, 2026, 08:44 UTC |
This page is rebuilt on the same URL when the board moves, and it gets a scored retrospective when the season settles: which splits were right, which were wrong, and what the misses had in common. Three of these 32 ladders have a page of their own: New England, where the panel sits furthest above the market, Dallas, and the Giants, where the two sides agreed on the line and split on the ceiling. For how the same numbers look next to sportsbook win totals rather than next to a model, we keep a separate comparison of Kalshi against DraftKings and FanDuel. Week-by-week, the panel prices every game on the AI NFL predictions board.
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The Bottom Line
New England is the widest gap above the market's ask on this board, it was the widest in the previous two editions of this page, and one loss made it wider. Atlanta sits further from its line, 2.38 to New England's 2.01, but Atlanta's ladder is quoted four rungs wide and the Patriots' is quoted ten; the Patriots gap is the one the book can actually price.
The tightened Patriots ladder costs between 8.09 and 9.58 wins. The panel's median is 11.75, and the important part is the distribution rather than the median: the lowest of the eight seats is 11.5, which is above the price of the whole ladder at the ask. No seat in the panel agrees with the market here, and none did before. The gap was 1.82 of a win in August and 1.58 on September 2. It is 2.17 now, after opening night in Seattle on September 9: 13-10, three Drake Maye interceptions, and a ten-or-more contract that closed at 58¢ the night before the game and 44¢ the day after.
The reasons every seat cited are the same as they were: a +170 point differential that was the third-best in football, Mike Vrabel still in charge and Drake Maye listed active, A.J. Brown acquired from Philadelphia, and Romeo Doubs added. The counter is a real one, and it is why nobody on the panel went past 12.2: 14-3 teams regress, and New England draws the 0.5311 schedule while doing it. Seattle was the first of those games.
So the two teams this page opened its last edition with both lost their openers, and at ten wins the exchange still prices them a few cents apart, the two quotes in the ladder table above. The panel separates them by 3.5 wins and it will not move. By January the season will have shown which side was closer, and that record will be on this page.
Prices as of September 14, 2026, 08:44 UTC. The panel numbers on this page are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Event contracts on Kalshi are available to users 18+ and are regulated by the CFTC; availability varies by state.
