NFL Win Totals 2026: All 32 Teams On Kalshi, Scored

Win totals are the definitive August football market, and for the first time you can trade every one of them on a CFTC-regulated exchange. Kalshi lists a full ladder of "N or more wins" contracts for all 32 teams (544 contracts in all, with about 931,000 contracts already traded across the series), and those ladders imply a market line for every franchise. We put the entire league in front of an eight-model AI panel that never saw a price, asked each model for an expected win total for every team, and compared the panel's board to the market's. NFL win totals 2026 is a crowded genre; scoring the whole league against live exchange ladders, price-blind, is the version of it this page exists for.

The Quick Answer

Kalshi's ladders and our eight price-blind models agree on most of the league and split hard in a few loud places. The panel's biggest over is New England at 11.8 expected wins against a 10.5-win market line, its biggest under is Baltimore at 9.2 against a market line of 11.5, and it fades Tennessee (5.2 vs 7.5) and Green Bay (8.4 vs 10.5) nearly as hard. On Denver, the panel's own regression math lands at 10.5, exactly the market's number. The full 32-team board, every model's number for every team, and the one bounce-back the market has already fully priced are below.

The Market At A Glance

Venue	Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (18+; availability varies by state, as of August 2026)
The Markets	32 team events in the KXNFLWINS series (e.g. KXNFLWINS-27KC), each a ladder of 17 yes/no contracts from 1+ through 17+ wins
The Contract	Per the fetched rules: "If the Kansas City Pro Football team wins at least 9 games in the 2026-27 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes"
Settlement	Regular-season wins only; ties are not wins; playoffs do not count. Season runs September 9, 2026 through January 10, 2027; listed contract expiration January 18, 2027
Prices As Of	August 1, 2026, 12:01 UTC (order-book midpoints, with sparse rungs filled from recent trades)
Verdicts Generated	August 1, 2026, in two rounds (independent, then a Delphi cross-read)

These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Kalshi event contracts trade on a CFTC-regulated exchange; you must be 18 or older and in an eligible state to participate.

How This Board Was Built

The method matters more here than on a single game, so it gets three sentences. Each of the eight models (Claude Fable, Opus, and Sonnet, GPT, Gemini, GLM, Kimi, and DeepSeek) received the same fetched data card: final 2025 standings with point differentials, the Super Bowl LX result, and the league's documented offseason coaching, trade, free-agency, and retirement lists, with no prices anywhere in it. Each model produced one expected win total per team in a single call, under a coherence constraint that its 32 numbers must sum to roughly 272, because the league's 272 games produce at most one winner each; that keeps a model from calling 20 teams an over. The market's line for each team is read off its ladder as the rung where the price crosses 50 cents (Seattle's 11-plus contract trades at 51.5 cents and its 12-plus below 50, so the market's line is about 11.5), and after round one, every model read the other seven boards anonymized and could revise with evidence, which is the round the headline blend comes from. Both rounds are stored, and every number is graded against settled results in our backtest ledger when the season ends.

All 32 Teams: The Full Board

Sorted by the panel's blend. "Market line" is the 50-cent crossing rung of each team's ladder plus a half win, which is the exchange's equivalent of a sportsbook total. Lean is the direction of the gap; anything inside three quarters of a win is closer to agreement than edge.

Team	Market Line	Panel Wins	Lean
Los Angeles Rams	12.5	12.0	Lean Under
New England Patriots	10.5	11.8	Over
Seattle Seahawks	11.5	11.6	Market's number
Jacksonville Jaguars	9.5	10.6	Over
San Francisco 49ers	10.5	10.6	Market's number
Houston Texans	10.5	10.6	Market's number
Denver Broncos	10.5	10.5	Market's number
Buffalo Bills	11.5	10.5	Under
Detroit Lions	11.5	10.2	Under
Kansas City Chiefs	10.5	9.9	Lean Under
Philadelphia Eagles	10.5	9.8	Lean Under
Baltimore Ravens	11.5	9.2	Under
Los Angeles Chargers	10.5	9.1	Under
Cincinnati Bengals	10.5	9.1	Under
Indianapolis Colts	8.5	9.0	Lean Over
Minnesota Vikings	9.5	9.0	Lean Under
Green Bay Packers	10.5	8.4	Under
Pittsburgh Steelers	8.5	8.3	Market's number
Chicago Bears	9.5	8.2	Under
Atlanta Falcons	7.5	8.2	Lean Over
Dallas Cowboys	9.5	8.1	Under
Carolina Panthers	7.5	7.5	Market's number
Washington Commanders	8.5	7.3	Under
New York Giants	8.5	7.3	Under
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8.5	7.0	Under
New Orleans Saints	8.5	6.8	Under
Las Vegas Raiders	6.5	6.0	Lean Under
New York Jets	5.5	5.8	Market's number
Tennessee Titans	7.5	5.2	Under
Cleveland Browns	6.5	5.1	Under
Miami Dolphins	4.5	4.9	Market's number
Arizona Cardinals	4.5	4.7	Market's number

These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. One structural note before reading the gaps: the panel's unders outnumber its overs. That is not pessimism, it is arithmetic. The market's 32 implied lines sum to 292 wins, and a 272-game season can only pay out 272, because a rung clears 50 cents on whichever side has slightly more buyers. A projection forced to sum to 272 has to take wins away from someone.

Every Seat's Number

The full per-model board, expected wins per team, round-two numbers. The blend is the simple mean of the eight.

Team	Line	Fable	Opus	Sonnet	GPT	Gemini	GLM	Kimi	DeepSeek	Blend
Los Angeles Rams	12.5	11.7	11.9	11.8	11.8	12.4	12.1	12.3	11.7	12.0
New England Patriots	10.5	11.7	11.7	11.9	11.8	12.1	11.6	11.8	11.5	11.8
Seattle Seahawks	11.5	11.5	11.7	11.6	11.5	11.6	11.6	11.7	11.4	11.6
Jacksonville Jaguars	9.5	10.7	10.7	10.6	10.6	10.4	10.6	10.9	10.7	10.6
San Francisco 49ers	10.5	10.4	10.3	10.8	10.5	11.1	10.6	10.6	10.4	10.6
Houston Texans	10.5	10.5	10.5	10.6	10.5	10.6	10.6	10.7	10.6	10.6
Denver Broncos	10.5	10.6	10.6	10.5	10.5	9.9	10.6	10.7	10.4	10.5
Buffalo Bills	11.5	10.5	10.4	10.5	10.5	10.6	10.4	10.6	10.2	10.5
Detroit Lions	11.5	10.1	10.1	10.0	10.0	10.3	10.6	10.0	10.1	10.2
Kansas City Chiefs	10.5	9.9	9.7	9.4	9.8	10.5	10.1	10.0	9.9	9.9
Philadelphia Eagles	10.5	10.1	9.7	9.7	9.8	9.7	9.4	10.0	10.0	9.8
Baltimore Ravens	11.5	9.3	9.0	9.3	9.2	8.8	9.1	9.5	9.5	9.2
Los Angeles Chargers	10.5	9.3	9.3	9.2	9.1	8.8	9.1	9.1	9.2	9.1
Cincinnati Bengals	10.5	8.9	8.8	8.7	9.1	9.1	9.1	9.3	9.6	9.1
Indianapolis Colts	8.5	9.0	9.0	9.0	9.0	9.2	9.1	9.0	8.9	9.0
Minnesota Vikings	9.5	8.9	8.7	9.0	9.1	9.6	9.1	8.7	8.6	9.0
Green Bay Packers	10.5	8.4	8.4	8.3	8.5	7.9	8.0	8.1	9.1	8.4
Pittsburgh Steelers	8.5	8.3	8.2	8.2	8.2	8.1	8.0	8.2	8.7	8.3
Chicago Bears	9.5	8.6	8.4	8.6	8.3	7.6	8.0	8.0	8.3	8.2
Atlanta Falcons	7.5	8.3	7.8	8.1	8.2	8.6	8.0	8.0	8.2	8.2
Dallas Cowboys	9.5	8.2	8.3	8.0	8.0	7.9	8.0	8.1	8.4	8.1
Carolina Panthers	7.5	7.7	7.5	7.6	7.4	7.3	7.5	7.5	7.4	7.5
Washington Commanders	8.5	7.3	7.5	7.2	7.1	6.6	7.5	7.5	7.6	7.3
New York Giants	8.5	7.1	6.8	7.2	7.2	7.6	7.5	7.3	7.3	7.3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8.5	7.3	7.2	6.9	6.8	6.6	6.8	6.7	7.7	7.0
New Orleans Saints	8.5	6.6	6.7	6.7	6.7	6.9	7.5	6.4	6.9	6.8
Las Vegas Raiders	6.5	5.8	6.0	6.2	6.2	6.9	6.0	5.8	4.9	6.0
New York Jets	5.5	5.7	5.8	5.7	5.8	6.6	6.0	5.5	5.0	5.8
Tennessee Titans	7.5	5.2	5.6	5.2	5.1	5.1	5.0	5.2	5.3	5.2
Cleveland Browns	6.5	5.0	5.4	5.0	5.1	5.1	5.5	4.8	4.7	5.1
Miami Dolphins	4.5	5.0	5.1	5.0	5.0	4.0	4.5	5.0	5.3	4.9
Arizona Cardinals	4.5	4.8	4.9	4.6	4.6	4.6	4.5	4.7	4.7	4.7

These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. The single thread running through every board: point differential over raw record. Teams that won more games than their scoring supported get pulled down, teams that lost close and often get pulled up, and the offseason lists amplify or dampen the correction.

New England Patriots: The Biggest Over On The Board

The panel's loudest disagreement with the market is on the team that just lost the Super Bowl. New England's ladder crosses 50 cents at the 10-plus rung (55 cents), a market line of about 10.5 wins. The panel blends to 11.8, and the spread across eight models is the tightest of any big gap on the board, 11.5 to 12.1, meaning every seat independently landed a win or more above the market.

The case stacks three fetched facts. The Patriots went 14-3 with a +170 point differential, a record the underlying scoring fully supported. They reached the Super Bowl and lost it to a Seattle team the panel also rates elite. And then they added A.J. Brown from Philadelphia in a June trade, plus Romeo Doubs, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Dre'Mont Jones, and Kevin Byard in free agency, a haul the round-two cross-read specifically elevated: "multiple boards correctly emphasized that Garrett/McDuffie and A.J. Brown are unusually large premium-position additions to already elite teams" — GPT. A market line of 10.5 asks the crowd to believe a 14-win Super Bowl team with a stronger receiver room got three and a half wins worse. The panel does not.

Baltimore Ravens: The Biggest Under On The Board

The market prices Baltimore's ladder like the down year never happened: the 11-plus rung trades at 51.5 cents, a line of about 11.5 wins for a team that just went 8-9. The panel blends to 9.2, a fade of more than two full wins, and no seat reached higher than 9.5.

Here is the honest shape of the disagreement: the panel actually agrees Baltimore improves. An 8-9 season with a +26 differential reads as bad luck, Lamar Jackson is still the roster's center, and the offseason added Trey Hendrickson from Cincinnati. What the panel will not buy is the size of the bounce the market is charging for, because the same offseason ended John Harbaugh's 18-year tenure, sent him to the Giants, and handed the team to first-time NFL head coach Minter, while Tyler Linderbaum, Isaiah Likely, Patrick Ricard, and Jordan Stout all walked. One seat put the balance neatly: "treating Minter's arrival in Baltimore as soft support for holding the Ravens at 9.5" — Kimi, and 9.5 was the panel's ceiling, not its center. Paying 11.5 wins for a coaching transition off a losing season is the single most expensive assumption on the exchange's NFL board.

Three More Teams Where The Panel Splits From The Money

Tennessee Titans: Two Full Wins Below The Line

The market asks 7.5 for a team that went 3-14 with a −194 differential, fired its coach mid-season, and is starting over under Saleh, whose own last head-coaching run produced no playoff appearances. The panel blends to 5.2 with every seat between 5.0 and 5.6, the most unanimous fade on the board. A two-win improvement is priced as the baseline; the panel sees the baseline as staying bad.

Green Bay Packers: The Quiet Teardown

Green Bay's 10-plus rung trades at 54 cents, a 10.5 line for a 9-7-1 team. The panel says 8.4, and the round-two revision arc explains why: "trimmed Green Bay (D and G catalogued a clear net talent outflow — Gary, Jenkins, Doubs, both Walkers, Willis out against only Zaire Franklin in)" — Kimi. Rashan Gary to Dallas, Elgton Jenkins to Cleveland, Romeo Doubs to New England, Quay Walker to Las Vegas, and Rasheed Walker to Carolina is a lot of starter-quality departure for one offseason, and the market's line does not appear to have digested it.

Jacksonville Jaguars: The Over Nobody Is Talking About

The market gives a 13-4 division champion with a +138 differential a line of just 9.5 (the 9-plus rung trades at 56 cents). The panel blends to 10.6, every seat at 10.4 or higher. Unlike the teams above, nothing dramatic happened to Jacksonville in the offseason lists except losing Travis Etienne to New Orleans and Devin Lloyd to Carolina; the panel reads the market as over-charging for regression to a team whose record was differential-supported. A full win of gap on a good team's ladder is rarer than it sounds.

The Trap On The Board: Kansas City Chiefs

Every model's round-one write-up named the same favorite bounce-back: "a 6-11 record with a POSITIVE point differential (+34) is the single loudest regression signal on the board" — Fable. Kansas City at 6-11 with a positive differential is the cleanest positive-regression profile in football, plus Kenneth Walker III and L'Jarius Sneed arrived in the offseason. So is the 10-plus rung at 55.5 cents a buy?

The panel says no, and that is what makes this row a trap: the market already bought the bounce, and then some. A 10.5-win line prices in a four-and-a-half-win improvement, and the blend lands at 9.9, slightly under it. The round-two cross-read sharpened the case: "every board cited Kansas City's +34 and the Walker/Sneed adds while ignoring that KC shipped McDuffie to the Rams for picks, so I hold at 9.6" — Opus. When your best argument for an over is one the whole market made months ago, you are not early, you are paying retail. The same logic applies in miniature to Cincinnati (panel 9.1 against a 10.5 line): the panel loves the Bengals' defensive rebuild around Dexter Lawrence and Jonathan Allen, and still cannot get to the price.

Where The Panel And The Market Agree

Calibration is the boring half of honesty, so here it is. On seven of the 32 teams the blend lands within a quarter of a win of the market's line, and the agreements are more interesting than they look:

• Denver Broncos, 10.5 vs 10.5. The panel fades last season's 14-3 AFC top seed hard ("14-3 on only +90 is the flimsiest 14-win profile in the league" — Opus), and the market's ladder already prices exactly that regression. One model moved a full win in round two on this exact logic: "the panel's near-unanimous Denver fade convinced me my round-1 number was too generous to a 14-3 record over a +90 differential, so I pulled Denver from 11.2 to 10.5" — Opus.
• Seattle Seahawks, 11.5 vs 11.6. The champions lose Kenneth Walker III, Tariq Woolen, Boye Mafe, Coby Bryant, and their offensive coordinator, and the panel still rates them elite off a +191 differential; "hard to repeat 14-3 with that much departed talent" — Sonnet is why 11.6 and not 13.
• Houston Texans, 10.5 vs 10.6, San Francisco 49ers, 10.5 vs 10.6, Carolina Panthers, 7.5 vs 7.5, Pittsburgh Steelers, 8.5 vs 8.3, and Arizona Cardinals, 4.5 vs 4.7 round out the clean agreements, with the Jets and Dolphins only fractionally further out, both rebuilds the market and the models price in the fours and fives.

Dark Horses The Panel Won't Dismiss

A blend hides its outliers, and three seats filed minority reports worth reading on their own:

• Miami at 4.0 wins (Gemini). The board's lowest number for anyone. DeepSeek's round-one case for the direction: "lose Tua and Waddle, replace with Malik Willis, with a new head coach taking over a stripped-down roster." If that seat is right, even the market's modest 4.5 line is too high.
• Las Vegas at 4.9 (DeepSeek). A full win below the panel and market. Its reasoning discounts the Kirk Cousins signing against a first-time head coach and a 3-14 roster that carried a −191 point differential: "a multi-year rebuild, not a leap."
• Green Bay at 9.1 (DeepSeek). The same seat is the lone Packers defender, nearly a full win above its peers, which is the row to watch if Green Bay's outflow matters less than the panel thinks.

One more panel artifact worth surfacing because it shows the process working: in the revision round, one seat rejected another's Jets optimism on factual grounds, "I declined Forecaster F's Jets over because its stated evidence is factually wrong on the card — Saleh was hired by Tennessee, not the Jets" — Fable. Cross-examination is the point of running eight seats instead of one.

Win Totals You Can Trade All Season

The structural difference between these ladders and a sportsbook futures ticket is the exit. A win-total bet at a book is dead money until January; a Kalshi ladder reprices every week, so a 4-1 start moves your September rung price immediately and you can sell into the move without waiting for the season to resolve. That cuts both ways, of course, and the ladder format adds a second option a book does not offer: choosing your threshold. If you like the Patriots over but not at our panel's number, the 11-plus and 12-plus rungs are separately priced contracts with separately sized payouts. The Kalshi NFL picks hub tracks every scored NFL board as the season approaches, and Week 1 game markets are already live and priced if you want the short-dated version of the same exercise.

Kalshi Win Totals Vs Sportsbook Numbers

A sportsbook posts one number per team with juice on both sides; the exchange posts seventeen separately priced thresholds. That difference is exploitable in both directions. When a book's total and the ladder's 50-cent crossing disagree, one venue is mispricing the team, and when they agree, the rungs above and below the line still frequently disagree with the book's alternate totals. The habit to build is pricing both venues before taking either: our live NFL odds screen shows every major book's NFL prices side by side, and the full comparison of Kalshi and sportsbook NFL futures walks the fee-and-vig math for this exact market family. Remember the settlement wrinkle when comparing: most sportsbook totals push on the exact number, while the exchange's "N or more" contract has no push, it simply resolves No, which makes the exchange rung slightly cheaper to be wrong on by half a game.

How To Read These Prices

A Worked Example: The Patriots At 10-Plus

Take the board's biggest gap and price it end to end. New England's 10-plus rung costs 55 cents, so the crowd calls it a 55% proposition that the Patriots win at least 10 games. The panel's blend says New England's expected wins are 11.8. To turn an expected-wins number into a probability for one rung, we model each team's season as a normal distribution around its expected wins with a standard deviation of 1.6 wins, which is the method note for every stored verdict on this board: with a mean of 11.8, clearing 10 wins comes out near 92%. If you think preseason uncertainty is wider than 1.6 wins, stretch it to 2.5 and the same mean still prices 10-plus around 82%. The gap versus 55% survives any reasonable spread assumption, which is exactly what "biggest over on the board" should mean. Note what the conversion does and does not claim: it turns a mean into a rung probability under an assumed spread, so it is sharpest on big gaps like New England's and nearly meaningless inside the agreement zone, where a Denver blend of 10.5 and a Denver market line of 10.5 are simply the same center read two ways.

A few honest frictions before acting on any of this:

• The models can be wrong together. All eight seats read the same card, so a blind spot in the inputs (a camp injury after August 1, a holdout, a trade) is a blind spot eight times over. Prices move on news; this page's numbers are stamped.
• Sparse rungs are softer. 462 of the 544 contracts had live two-sided quotes at fetch time and another 19 priced off their most recent trade; the deep tails (a 3-14 team's 14-plus rung) price on rare trades, and a few mid-ladder rungs on thin books carry wide spreads, so treat single prints with caution.
• Fees and spread. Kalshi charges trading fees and you cross a bid-ask spread on entry and exit; a two-cent edge on paper is not an edge after costs.
• Time and capital. These settle in mid-January 2027. An exchange position can be exited early, but a full-season hold ties up capital for five months.
• Not advice. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.

The Settlement Retrospective

This board is a public experiment, and it grades itself. Every one of the 512 stored verdicts (32 teams, eight models, two rounds) sits in our backtest ledger with the market price it disagreed with, and when the regular season ends January 10, 2027, this page gets a same-URL retrospective scoring the panel against the closing standings: the Patriots and Jaguars overs, the Ravens, Titans, and Packers fades, and the Kansas City trap call. If the market was right and the models were wrong, that result publishes here too.

FAQ

When do Kalshi NFL win-total markets settle? At the end of the 2026 regular season, which is scheduled to finish January 10, 2027; the contracts carry a listed expiration of January 18, 2027. Each contract settles Yes if the team wins at least its stated number of regular-season games. Playoff wins do not count.

Do ties count toward a Kalshi win total? No. The contract language pays on games a team wins, so a tie adds nothing to the count. A team that finishes 8-8-1 has 8 wins for settlement purposes, which is one reason an exchange ladder can price the same team differently than a sportsbook total that pushes on the number.

The Bottom Line

The 2026 win-total board splits into three honest reads. The panel's conviction plays are concentrated where rosters and records point the same way and the price does not: New England and Jacksonville over, Baltimore, Tennessee, and Green Bay under. Its calibration shows in the agreements, where Denver's regression and Seattle's champion tax are priced identically by silicon and crowd. And its discipline shows in the trap it refused: the Kansas City bounce-back everyone can see is already in the price. If this method is new to you, start with how to bet NFL on Kalshi for the mechanics, then the Week 1 board for the short-dated version of the same discipline.

Hottest Prediction Markets Right Now

• 2028 Democratic presidential nominee · $166M traded
• Rocket Classic Winner · $85M traded
• 2027 Pro Football Champion · $52M traded
• Pro Baseball Champion · $41M traded
• Bitcoin price at the end of 2026 · $30M traded
• 2027 Pro Basketball Champion · $19M traded

Every market above links to our full AI model verdict; browse them all on the OddsShopper prediction markets hub.

Verdicts generated August 1, 2026, in two rounds by Claude Fable, Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, GPT, Gemini, GLM, Kimi, and DeepSeek, price-blind, from a fetched data card (2025 standings via the ESPN standings API; offseason facts via Wikipedia's 2026 NFL season page, both fetched August 1, 2026). Prices as of August 1, 2026, 12:01 UTC, from Kalshi order books and candlesticks. Headline numbers are round-two blends, generated after each model read the others' anonymized reasoning. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.