Two weeks of the 2026 NFL season have moved 22 of the 32 win-total lines on Kalshi by at least half a win since this page's September 14 edition, 12 up and 10 down, and the moves ran away from the price-blind panel far more often than toward it. On 22 teams the gap between the market's line and the panel's number grew; on 10 it shrank. The average gap was 1.09 wins on September 14 and is 1.34 now.
The three biggest risers: New Orleans, from 8.07 wins to 9.72 after winning in Baltimore; Las Vegas, from 6.87 to 8.27 at 2-0; and Kansas City, from 10.59 to 11.86 with the Monday night win over Denver and a 33-30 escape against the Colts both in the book. The three biggest fallers: the Giants, from 8.94 to 6.50 after scoring six in Los Angeles; the Chargers, from 9.00 to 7.23 at 0-2; and Chicago, from 11.06 to 9.34, the team whose 59 points led the last edition, after scoring three at home against Minnesota.
The panel's numbers are frozen from September 2 and will be graded as they stand. Where the market ran toward them it was by falling: Chicago's gap went from 2.56 wins to 0.84, the Giants' from 1.94 to 0.50. Where it ran away it was by rising: Cincinnati is now the widest split on the board at 3.12 wins above the panel, Las Vegas is 3.02 above and New Orleans 2.72, three teams the panel priced off last season's point margins and the market has repriced on two results each.
Prices as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026, 7:31 a.m. ET, Kalshi quotes before fees.
Updated September 23, 2026 · 9 min read · by Jake Hari
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The Board: All 32 Teams
Every team is priced as a ladder of 17 yes-or-no contracts, one-or-more wins through 17-or-more. The line is where that ladder, read through its neighbors as the last edition read it, crosses even money, so the move column compares like with like. Two weeks tightened the book: on September 14, 193 of the 515 open rungs were quoted 10¢ wide or tighter; now 475 of 480 are, and at midpoints the 32 ladders add up to 272 wins, the number a 17-game season pays out, where the September 14 sum ran from 235.3 at the bid to 311.7 at the ask. The 50¢ rung is the contract sitting on the line. The panel is the seat median, frozen since September 2, and the gap is panel minus line: positive, the panel sits above the market; negative, below. Sorted by the move.
| Team | W-L | Line 9/14 | Line now | Move | 50¢ rung, bid / ask | Panel | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | 1-1 | 8.07 | 9.72 | +1.65 | 9+ · 56¢ / 57¢ | 7.00 | -2.72 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 2-0 | 6.87 | 8.27 | +1.40 | 8+ · 53¢ / 54¢ | 5.25 | -3.02 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 2-0 | 10.59 | 11.86 | +1.27 | 11+ · 59¢ / 60¢ | 10.30 | -1.56 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 2-0 | 9.62 | 10.75 | +1.13 | 10+ · 60¢ / 61¢ | 8.50 | -2.25 |
| Cleveland Browns | 1-1 | 5.15 | 6.22 | +1.07 | 6+ · 53¢ / 54¢ | 5.50 | -0.72 |
| Buffalo Bills | 2-0 | 11.83 | 12.69 | +0.86 | 12+ · 61¢ / 63¢ | 10.75 | -1.94 |
| Carolina Panthers | 1-1 | 7.04 | 7.89 | +0.85 | 7+ · 62¢ / 63¢ | 6.60 | -1.29 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 1-1 | 8.89 | 9.63 | +0.74 | 9+ · 59¢ / 60¢ | 8.25 | -1.38 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 2-0 | 11.29 | 11.97 | +0.68 | 11+ · 65¢ / 66¢ | 10.00 | -1.97 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 2-0 | 11.48 | 12.08 | +0.60 | 12+ · 50¢ / 52¢ | 11.50 | -0.58 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 2-0 | 11.55 | 12.12 | +0.57 | 12+ · 51¢ / 53¢ | 9.00 | -3.12 |
| New England Patriots | 1-1 | 9.74 | 10.28 | +0.54 | 10+ · 54¢ / 55¢ | 11.75 | +1.47 |
| New York Jets | 1-1 | 6.69 | 7.04 | +0.35 | 7+ · 50¢ / 51¢ | 5.80 | -1.24 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 1-1 | 11.42 | 11.68 | +0.26 | 11+ · 58¢ / 63¢ | 12.00 | +0.32 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 1-1 | 5.93 | 6.00 | +0.07 | 6+ · 49¢ / 51¢ | 4.50 | -1.50 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2-0 | 11.37 | 11.38 | +0.01 | 11+ · 56¢ / 57¢ | 10.00 | -1.38 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 1-1 | 10.26 | 10.11 | -0.15 | 10+ · 51¢ / 52¢ | 11.00 | +0.89 |
| Green Bay Packers | 1-1 | 9.57 | 9.32 | -0.25 | 9+ · 53¢ / 54¢ | 8.25 | -1.07 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0-2 | 6.07 | 5.81 | -0.26 | 5+ · 54¢ / 59¢ | 8.45 | +2.64 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0-2 | 8.34 | 8.00 | -0.34 | 8+ · 49¢ / 51¢ | 9.50 | +1.50 |
| Detroit Lions | 1-1 | 11.43 | 11.03 | -0.40 | 11+ · 50¢ / 51¢ | 10.00 | -1.03 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0-2 | 3.58 | 3.18 | -0.40 | 3+ · 53¢ / 54¢ | 4.50 | +1.32 |
| Denver Broncos | 1-1 | 10.54 | 10.03 | -0.51 | 10+ · 50¢ / 51¢ | 10.50 | +0.47 |
| Houston Texans | 0-2 | 10.33 | 9.76 | -0.57 | 9+ · 60¢ / 62¢ | 11.25 | +1.49 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 1-1 | 12.12 | 11.50 | -0.62 | 11+ · 57¢ / 60¢ | 10.00 | -1.50 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0-2 | 5.34 | 4.72 | -0.62 | 4+ · 58¢ / 65¢ | 5.00 | +0.28 |
| Washington Commanders | 0-2 | 7.22 | 6.26 | -0.96 | 6+ · 53¢ / 54¢ | 6.50 | +0.24 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0-2 | 8.65 | 7.57 | -1.08 | 7+ · 55¢ / 57¢ | 7.75 | +0.18 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 1-1 | 9.21 | 7.66 | -1.55 | 7+ · 59¢ / 62¢ | 8.50 | +0.84 |
| Chicago Bears | 1-1 | 11.06 | 9.34 | -1.72 | 9+ · 54¢ / 57¢ | 8.50 | -0.84 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0-2 | 9.00 | 7.23 | -1.77 | 7+ · 53¢ / 54¢ | 9.00 | +1.77 |
| New York Giants | 1-1 | 8.94 | 6.50 | -2.44 | 6+ · 57¢ / 58¢ | 7.00 | +0.50 |
Every 2-0 team rose and every 0-2 team fell. The column that changed shape is the gap. On September 14 the panel sat above the market on 9 teams; it sits above on 14 now, because the market fell through the panel's number on seven teams (the Giants, Chargers, Steelers, Broncos, Buccaneers, Commanders and Titans) and rose through it on two (Cleveland and Seattle). The disagreement did not get smaller. It moved down the table.
Four of the eight seats on this panel carry public graded records against real market settlements: Gemini 86% on 8,779 graded calls · Kimi 86% on 4,394 graded calls · GLM 83% on 4,020 graded calls · DeepSeek 84% on 4,083 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
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More live boards from the same panel: NFL playoff odds · best regular-season record · worst record.
Every Seat's Number
| Team | Fable | Opus | Sonnet | ChatGPT | Gemini | Kimi | GLM | DeepSeek | Panel median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 11.5 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 12 | 12 | 12.5 | 12.00 |
| New England Patriots | 11.5 | 11.5 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12 | 11.5 | 12 | 11.5 | 11.75 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.50 |
| Houston Texans | 11 | 11 | 11.5 | 11 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11 | 11.25 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 10.5 | 10.5 | 11.3 | 11.2 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10.5 | 11.00 |
| Buffalo Bills | 10.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 11 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 11 | 10.75 |
| Denver Broncos | 10.5 | 10.5 | 11.2 | 10.6 | 10 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 10.50 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10 | 10.5 | 10.1 | 10 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10 | 10.5 | 10.30 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 10 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10.00 |
| Detroit Lions | 10 | 10 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10.00 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 10 | 10 | 9.6 | 10.4 | 9 | 10 | 9.5 | 10 | 10.00 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 9.5 | 10 | 11 | 9.3 | 10 | 9.5 | 10 | 10 | 10.00 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 9.5 | 9 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 10 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.50 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 9 | 9 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.5 | 9.00 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 9 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.5 | 9.00 |
| Chicago Bears | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8 | 8.50 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.50 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 9 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 9 | 8.50 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 8.5 | 8 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 8 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.45 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 8 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 8 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8 | 8.5 | 8.25 |
| Green Bay Packers | 8.5 | 8 | 9.3 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.25 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.75 |
| New Orleans Saints | 7 | 7 | 5.8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5.5 | 7.00 |
| New York Giants | 7 | 7.5 | 7 | 7.1 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5.5 | 7.00 |
| Carolina Panthers | 7 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 7 | 6 | 6.5 | 6.60 |
| Washington Commanders | 7 | 7 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 7 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.50 |
| New York Jets | 6 | 6 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5.80 |
| Cleveland Browns | 5.5 | 5 | 5 | 5.5 | 6 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 5.50 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 5 | 5 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 6 | 5.5 | 5 | 5.5 | 5.25 |
| Tennessee Titans | 5 | 5 | 4.6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 5.00 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4 | 3.5 | 4.50 |
| Miami Dolphins | 5 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4 | 4.50 |
Prices as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026, 7:31 a.m. ET. The panel's numbers are frozen from its September 2 run and will be graded as they stand. It ran price-blind: each model received a data card of 2025 records, point differentials, injury reports current to that date, 2026 schedules and the offseason transaction ledger, and no market number of any kind.
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The Two Biggest Risers Meet In New Orleans On Sunday
New Orleans lost its opener 31-30 in overtime in Detroit and the line sat at 8.07 on September 14. Then the Saints won 24-17 in Baltimore and the ladder added 1.65 wins, the largest gain on the board. The nine-or-more contract is bid 56¢ and offered at 57¢; the seven-or-more contract, the rung that carries the panel's 7.00, is 79¢ to 80¢. Six of the eight seats had the Saints at exactly 7.0 and the other two lower, at 5.8 and 5.5. None of them had a number the market would quote at even money today.
Las Vegas is the same story with a better record. The Raiders beat Miami 27-13 and the Chargers 26-14, the line went from 6.87 to 8.27, and the eight-or-more contract is 53¢ to 54¢. The panel's high seat was Gemini at 6.0; its median of 5.25 sits 3.02 wins below the market, the second-widest gap on the board. On September 2 the market was within a win and a half of that median. Two wins moved it to three.
The Raiders visit the Saints on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET, and the market has New Orleans at 60.5¢ to win it. One of the two ladders settles its second win on Sunday night. The panel's two numbers stay where they are.
The Giants Gave Back More Than Week One Bought
Beating Dallas added 1.18 wins to the Giants' line in Week 1. Losing 28-6 in Los Angeles on Monday night took 2.44 off, the largest fall on the board, and the nine-or-more contract that sat on the line nine days ago is bid 18¢ and offered at 20¢. The line is 6.50, and the seven-or-more contract, the panel's number, is 42¢ to 43¢. Nine days ago the panel's 7.00 sat 1.94 wins below the market; it sits 0.50 above it now. The Giants host Tennessee on Sunday at 57.5¢.
The Chargers were the one exact match on the September 14 board, 9.00 against 9.00. Two home losses by the same 26-14 score, to Arizona and then Las Vegas, took the line to 7.23, and the panel now sits 1.77 wins above the market, the largest gap any single team opened in two weeks. Sunday is in Buffalo, where the Bills are 75.5¢.
Chicago is the mirror. The 59 points in Carolina moved the Bears' line to 11.06 on September 14, two and a half wins above a panel whose eight seats sat between 8.0 and 8.8. Three points at home against Minnesota moved it back to 9.34. The 11-or-more contract, 47¢ to 55¢ nine days ago, is 27¢ to 31¢, and the gap to the panel's 8.50 went from 2.56 wins to 0.84, the largest closure on the board. It closed from the market's side. Philadelphia visits on Monday night at 68.5¢.
Cincinnati Is The Widest Split On The Board
The panel and the market have disagreed about one Bengals fact since August: whether 6-11 with a -78 point differential matters more than the third-easiest schedule on the card. The panel read the margin and put Cincinnati at 9.00, no seat above 9.5. The market read the schedule. Two games in, the schedule side is 2-0, with a 33-27 win over Tampa Bay and a 20-6 win in Houston, and the line is 12.12. The 12-or-more contract is 51¢ to 53¢; the nine-or-more contract, the panel's number, is 85¢ to 86¢. The gap is 3.12 wins, the widest on the board in either direction, up from 2.55 nine days ago. Sunday is in Pittsburgh, where Cincinnati is 63.5¢ and the Steelers' own line has fallen 1.55 wins in two weeks.
On the high side, Atlanta has taken the spot New England held for three editions. The Falcons are 0-2 after losing 34-3 at home to Carolina, the line is 5.81, the five-or-more contract is 54¢ to 59¢, and the eight-or-more contract, the rung nearest the panel's 8.45, is 19¢ to 20¢. The gap is 2.64 wins. The panel's case was a new head coach, a quarterback room that changed shape in August and one of the five easiest schedules in the league; two games have tested it and the market has priced the two games. Thursday night is in Green Bay, where the Packers are 70.5¢.
New England closed some of its gap the way the panel expected, by winning. The Patriots beat Pittsburgh 20-3, the ten-or-more contract that was 44¢ to 47¢ on September 14 is 54¢ to 55¢, and the line is 10.28. The panel's 11.75 is 1.47 wins above it, down from 2.01, and the lowest of the eight seats, 11.5, still sits above a 12-or-more contract offered at 28¢. Sunday in Jacksonville puts the two teams the panel likes most against the market head to head: the Jaguars' median is 11.00 against a line of 10.11, and the market has Jacksonville at 59.5¢.
What Moves These Numbers
Three checkable things the last edition named, and where each stands:
- A named Indianapolis starting quarterback. Resolved on September 13, and the Colts are 0-2 after 41-23 and 33-30 losses. The line went from 8.34 to 8.00; the nine-or-more contract, the panel's rung, is 32¢ to 34¢. The panel said a named starter would lift its number. The market took the two results instead.
- New England's schedule. Two of the three September tests are in: 13-10 in Seattle, 20-3 over Pittsburgh. Jacksonville on Sunday is the third.
- Dallas's defensive front. 28 allowed to the Giants, then 20 to Washington in a 37-20 win. The line is 9.63 against a panel of 8.25, and Baltimore visits on Sunday at 61.5¢.
The Bottom Line
The market and the panel disagree about what they disagreed about in August: whether last season's point margin or this season's schedule tells you more about a team. Two weeks of results pushed the market further from the panel on 22 teams, and the three widest gaps on the board, Cincinnati, Las Vegas and New Orleans, are all teams the panel priced off differentials of -78, -191 and -77 and the market has priced off two games each. The panel does not move. The results will, 15 more times per team through Week 18 on January 10, 2027, and this page will carry the score.
Three of these 32 ladders have a page of their own: New England, Dallas and the Giants. For the same numbers next to sportsbook win totals rather than next to a panel, we keep a separate comparison of Kalshi against DraftKings and FanDuel. Week by week, the panel prices every game on the AI NFL predictions board.
Prices as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026, 7:31 a.m. ET. The panel numbers on this page are estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Event contracts on Kalshi are regulated by the CFTC; availability varies by state.
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