Injury designations updated Sunday morning, September 20. Monday night is the last game on the board: the Giants at Rams pick is Rams -6.5, with Puka Nacua questionable and trending the wrong way.
We're back. My read on the 15 games left this week. Tell me where I'm wrong before kickoff, not on Tuesday. That's what makes this fun.
| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi to win | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers at Falcons | Sun 1:00 PM | Panthers 57¢ | Panthers −2.5 | 43.5 |
| Saints at Ravens | Sun 1:00 PM | Ravens 79¢ | Ravens −8.5 | 46.5 |
| Vikings at Bears | Sun 1:00 PM | Bears 66¢ | Bears −4.5 | 48.5 |
| Bengals at Texans | Sun 1:00 PM | Texans 59¢ | Texans −2.5 | 46.5 |
| Steelers at Patriots | Sun 1:00 PM | Patriots 69¢ | Patriots −5.5 | 41.5 |
| Packers at Jets | Sun 1:00 PM | Packers 63¢ | Packers −3.5 | 44.5 |
| Browns at Buccaneers | Sun 1:00 PM | Buccaneers 79¢ | Buccaneers −8.5 | 41.5 |
| Eagles at Titans | Sun 1:00 PM | Eagles 77¢ | Eagles −7 | 39.5 |
| Jaguars at Broncos | Sun 4:05 PM | Broncos 59¢ | Broncos −2.5 | 45.5 |
| Raiders at Chargers | Sun 4:05 PM | Chargers 73¢ | Chargers −6.5 | 43.5 |
| Seahawks at Cardinals | Sun 4:25 PM | Seahawks 66¢ | Seahawks −3.5 | 41.5 |
| Commanders at Cowboys | Sun 4:25 PM | Cowboys 66¢ | Cowboys −4.5 | 50.5 |
| Dolphins at 49ers | Sun 4:25 PM | 49ers 90¢ | 49ers −13.5 | 44.5 |
| Colts at Chiefs | Sun 8:20 PM | Chiefs 74¢ | Chiefs −6.5 | 46.5 |
| Giants at Rams | Mon 8:15 PM | Rams 75¢ | Rams −7 | 47.5 |
Panthers at Falcons, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Gross game, which is where the money is. Carolina gave up 59 points and got run over: two Caleb Williams rushing touchdowns, Kyle Monangai over 100, D'Andre Swift over 120 with three scores. Now it gets Bijan Robinson, who had 54% of Atlanta's carries and targets against Pittsburgh. The Falcons' defense held Aaron Rodgers to 0-for-9 on deep balls. Michael Penix Jr. is out after knee surgery and Tua Tagovailoa is doubtful, so it is Cooper Rush. again. Home dog in the division. Falcons +2.5. The full breakdown is here.
Saints at Ravens, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
I do not have a strong read here. Zay Flowers is out with the hamstring after 150 yards before halftime against the Colts, and Nnamdi Madubuike is out too. Derrick Henry ran for 203 and never ages. If Flowers sits, I lean Saints +8.5 because that is a huge number without him. I am not betting this one. The full breakdown is here.
Vikings at Bears, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Brian Flores sent five rushers 80% of the time and tormented Jordan Love. The other side: Minnesota gave up seven completions of 20-plus yards in one game after allowing 32 all of last season, last in the league. Chicago's line is better than Green Bay's, so if it holds up, the Bears win by a touchdown. Kyler Murray was ruled out Friday, so Carson Wentz starts, and Wentz is a backup with no mobility. Bears −4.5, with the honest caveat that if the line fails, Minnesota can win this outright. The full breakdown is here.
Bengals at Texans, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Houston's defense looked nothing like the unit that allowed the fewest yards in football last year. C.J. Stroud was fine outside of two turnovers, the last one at the 18 with 16 seconds left. Cincinnati was pedestrian, Ja'Marr Chase was a ghost, and four takeaways carried a one-score win. I like the bounce-back spot at home. Joe Burrow cannot beat you with his legs the way Allen did, and that pass rush does not stay quiet two weeks. Texans −2.5. The full breakdown is here.
Steelers at Patriots, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
I wanted Pittsburgh. New England lost A.J. Brown for about six weeks and Drake Maye threw three picks in a 13-10 Super Bowl rematch loss. Then I looked at Pittsburgh. Rodgers went 24-for-40 for 221, 3-for-12 on third down, 0-for-9 on throws of 20-plus yards, with DK Metcalf dropping some. Atlanta's defense is not half of New England's. The Patriots can win this on defense alone, and Maye will not be that bad again. Patriots −5.5. The full breakdown is here.
Packers at Jets, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
I can look dumb here. Green Bay's line was a row of turnstiles and Matt LaFleur is already talking about changes after one week. But a clean Jordan Love had seven completions of 20-plus yards, and the Jets cannot bring Minnesota's pressure. Matthew Golden drew a 31% target share, Christian Watson is healthy, Tucker Kraft is back. Packers −3.5, and this is one of two games I would look at a bigger alternate spread. The full breakdown is here.
Browns at Buccaneers, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Baker Mayfield went 23-for-28 for 216 and ran one in, then fumbled three times and lost all three. Bucky Irving lost one too. Tampa still lost by a score, and Mayfield circled this game. Cleveland got annihilated by Trevor Lawrence, Myles Garrett is gone, and Deshaun Watson's vision is what it has been since he got there. Quinshon Judkins cannot do it alone against this run defense. Big number, but it is inside 10. Buccaneers −8.5. The full breakdown is here.
Eagles at Titans, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Cam Ward cannot throw downfield right now, and Tennessee could not move the ball against the Jets' defense. Landon Dickerson went on Philly radio and said he played terribly. The Eagles put him on injured reserve while he was still on the air, and he did not even know it. That line cannot be worse than it was. Jalen Hurts' deep ball was on point and he scrambled out of heavy pressure. The Eagles might score 14 and still cover. I am not betting it, but it is Eagles −7. The full breakdown is here.
Jaguars at Broncos, Sunday 4:05 PM ET
Jacksonville was unstoppable against Cleveland: Lawrence 18-for-23 with four touchdowns, five sacks and eight hits on Watson, under four yards an attempt allowed. Denver got destroyed in Kansas City in Davis Webb's play-calling debut, and Sean Payton could have the sheet back by October. Altitude is real. I think Jacksonville is the better team because of Lawrence. Jaguars +2.5, but if it moves to +3 I love it. The full breakdown is here.
Raiders at Chargers, Sunday 4:05 PM ET
The Chargers lost outright to Arizona in Mike McDaniel's first game with that offense. Ashton Jeanty was dominant and Kirk Cousins is an upgrade, but Las Vegas has no weapons if Brock Bowers sits, and he is doubtful after missing practice all week. At 6.5 with Bowers out, Chargers −6.5. If he plays, he is worth about a point and I look at this again. The full breakdown is here.
Seahawks at Cardinals, Sunday 4:25 PM ET
Arizona's win over the Chargers was its Super Bowl, and I target the opponent of a team coming off an emotional upset with a new head coach. Drew Lock is not Sam Darnold, but he is not the worst backup in the league either, and he has this defense, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jadarian Price behind him. Seattle is a much better team. I was surprised the number is only 3.5. Seahawks −3.5. The full breakdown is here.
Commanders at Cowboys, Sunday 4:25 PM ET
Dallas spent all offseason selling an improved defense, then gave Jaxson Dart wide-open sideline throws and let Isaiah Likely score twice in a loss to the Giants. Jayden Daniels was fine against a good Philadelphia defense; convert the shovel-pass two-pointer and that game goes to overtime. Terry McLaurin gets more room here than he did against Quinyon Mitchell. Dallas has the weapons, but I am not laying more than a field goal until that defense shows me something. Commanders +4.5. The full breakdown is here.
Dolphins at 49ers, Sunday 4:25 PM ET
Everything points to San Francisco rolling, with George Kittle back and the backfield split between Kaelon Black and Christian McCaffrey. I still want no part of 13.5. De'Von Achane and Malik Willis can turn one drive into a backdoor cover, and the 49ers stayed in Australia a long time before coming home. If you make me pick, it is a lean to Dolphins +13.5, and I am not betting it. The full breakdown is here.
Colts at Chiefs, Sunday 8:20 PM ET
Kansas City is using Kenneth Walker the way Philadelphia used Saquon Barkley in 2024, and he nearly beat a good Denver defense by himself. Patrick Mahomes looked shaky. Indianapolis was dreadful: Flowers went off, Henry ran for 140-plus and three scores. Even so, this is a prime-time spot where the Chiefs will be a massively popular bet, and as a favorite of six or more they win a lot and cover a lot less. Daniel Jones was in the MVP conversation before his injury. Colts +6.5. The full breakdown is here.
Giants at Rams, Monday 8:15 PM ET
Puka Nacua did not practice Friday or Saturday, and the number moved from 7 to 6.5 while he sat. The Rams flew to Australia, tried to bend time, and got annihilated by a division rival. This is the kind of team that comes home and lights it up, and Sean McVay fixes problems fast. Dart, Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers are real, but I am not buying the Giants yet. With Nacua, 7 was not enough; without him, 6.5 is the market pricing the loss and it is still the side. Rams −6.5. The full breakdown is here.
Lines move. Check the number at your book before you bet, and the Kalshi price before you buy.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Patrick Mahomes photo by All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; Justin Herbert photo by All-Pro Reels, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
Nothing here is financial advice.
