Injury designations updated Sunday morning, September 20.
If there was one true disaster for a new play-caller in Week 1, it was the Chargers losing outright at home to Arizona as an 8.5-point favorite in Mike McDaniel's debut. Nice work, fellas. The number for this one opened at 7 and sits at 6.5, and the half point is the whole difference in how I see it. If you just want the pick, it is at the bottom.
The Game Lines
Kalshi in cents, bid and ask. Sportsbook column is the consensus line.
| Line | Kalshi | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread: Chargers Win By 7 Or More | 50-51¢ | Chargers −6.5 |
| Total: Over 43.5 Points | 49-50¢ | 43.5 |
| Moneyline: Chargers Win | 72-73¢ | Chargers -305 / Raiders +245 |
Six and a half after opening at 7. On Kalshi, Los Angeles winning by seven or more is 50 to 51 cents. The splits are lopsided in money: 58% of DraftKings' spread tickets on the Chargers but 86% of the handle, and 72% of the moneyline money at -305. The under holds 54% of the money at 43.5. It is a dome, so weather is not part of this one.
Tale of the Tape
An Embarrassment Of Riches, And An Embarrassment
Los Angeles lost 26-14 to Arizona. Justin Herbert went 17 of 27 for 209 with a touchdown and a deep interception, six points under expected completion, minus 0.19 EPA a dropback, sacked three times and hit four. The offense was 2 of 8 on third down with two turnovers and a 39% success rate despite motion on 86% of snaps. Ladd McConkey caught 5 for 82 and a touchdown and hurt his ribs; Quentin Johnston and Tre Harris combined for five catches on 12 targets. Omarion Hampton ran 12 for 43.
Jim Harbaugh went for it on fourth-and-goal from the 3 with 1:55 left in the half, down 10-7, and Herbert was sacked for minus-10. The second half went punt, blocked punt, Herbert pick, and two turnovers on downs. Harbaugh called it sloppy and uncharacteristic. It was his first opening-day loss as a head coach. I am not going to overreact to it, and I am not going to pretend Arizona's defense is smothering either.
Jeanty Was Dominant, And Cousins Had Nobody To Throw To
Las Vegas beat Miami 27-14 and covered. Ashton Jeanty ran 23 times for 102, caught six passes for 45 and scored twice, and did it against 7.35-man boxes with a 27% stuff rate. Kirk Cousins went 21 of 30 for 160 with three touchdowns and two picks and took no sacks. He is an upgrade on last year at quarterback because he makes fewer mistakes, and he still threw two picks against the Dolphins.
Brock Bowers sat after a meniscus trim on September 1 and did not practice Wednesday or Thursday. Without him the receiving corps is Jack Bech, Jalen Nailor, Tre Tucker and Michael Mayer, who saw seven targets. The defense sacked Malik Willis five times, hit him nine, held Miami to 34% success, and still allowed five completions of 20 or more.
The Half Point Is The Side
At 7 I was taking the Raiders. You get the key number and a team coming off a dominant win against a Chargers team that just embarrassed itself. At 6.5 I think the spot is Los Angeles, if Bowers is out. Without him this is the Jeanty show, and that works against Miami's defense in a way it does not work against a Chargers front that can stack the box without fear of the passing game.
If Bowers plays, he is worth about a point and I look at this again. The complication on the other side is McConkey's ribs and a Chargers defense missing Khalil Mack and two defensive tackles on Wednesday's report, so this is a Friday-report game on both sides.
The Number I'd Take
Chargers -6.5 if Brock Bowers is out.On Kalshi, that is the Chargers winning by seven or more, 50 to 51 cents.
If Bowers plays, I am not laying 6.5. I am not betting the total; Cousins threw for 160 and the Chargers' offense went 2 of 8 on third down.
What Moves The Number From Here
- Brock Bowers. Doubtful after a limited Friday. He is the side; unless he is active at 4:05, this is the Chargers.
- Ladd McConkey. Questionable with the chest. Herbert's other receivers caught 5 of 12 last week.
- Khalil Mack, Teair Tart, Trey Pipkins. Mack and Tart are off the report. Pipkins is out, and so is corner Elijah Molden. The right side of the line is the thing that protects Herbert, and it plays without its tackle.
- Darien Porter. Out with the foot. Whoever covers McConkey, if he plays, is a replacement.
My picks for the rest of Week 2 are in NFL Week 2 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Ashton Jeanty photo by All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; Justin Herbert photo by All-Pro Reels, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
