Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Thursday, September 17, 2026. DraftKings betting splits as of Thursday evening; Friday's final injury reports were not out when this was written.
Dallas spent the offseason selling a rebuilt defense and then let the Giants convert 9 of 10 third downs. Jaxson Dart had wide-open sideline throws as the half wound down and Isaiah Likely scored twice. I do not understand that defense yet, and until I do, I am not laying more than a field goal with it. If you just want the pick, it is at the bottom.
The Game Lines
Kalshi in cents, bid and ask. Sportsbook column is the consensus line.
| Line | Kalshi | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread: Cowboys Win By 5 Or More | 47-48¢ | Cowboys −4.5 |
| Total: Over 50.5 Points | 49-51¢ | 50.5 |
| Moneyline: Cowboys Win | 65-66¢ | Cowboys -218 / Commanders +180 |
The spread has moved from 3.5 to 4.5 since Tuesday, which I like better. On Kalshi, Dallas winning by five or more is 47 to 48 cents. The splits point the other way from the move: 54% of DraftKings' spread tickets on Washington and 58% of the money on Dallas, while 58% of the moneyline handle is on the Commanders at +180. The over is 53% of tickets and 56% of the money at 50.5.
Tale of the Tape
Nine Of Ten On Third Down
Dallas lost 28-20 in New York as a 3-point favorite. Dak Prescott went 22 of 34 for 175 with two touchdowns and a pick, 0 for 6 on deep balls, zero completions of 20 or more, zero sacks taken. The Cowboys went 8 of 11 on third down themselves but ran it only 18 times, Javonte Williams 12 for 41. CeeDee Lamb caught 5 of 8 for 44 and a touchdown; George Pickens 3 for 28 at a 17-yard depth.
The defense allowed 0.37 EPA a play, a 60% success rate and 5.0 a carry, and the Giants converted 9 of 10 third downs. Prescott's back-foot throw into Jevon Holland's sliding pick near the sideline with under a minute in the half gave New York a score before the break and another to open the third. It might take this defense time to gel. Fine. I am not paying for it while it does.
Washington Was A Shovel Pass From Overtime
The Commanders lost 24-22 in Philadelphia, covered plus-6, and did not turn it over. Jayden Daniels went 18 of 35 for 164 and two touchdowns, 1 of 6 on deep balls, and did not look great early before the offense got going. Jacory Croskey-Merritt ran 16 for 63 and a touchdown. Stefon Diggs caught 4 of 9 for 55 and a score; Terry McLaurin had two catches for 14 against Quinyon Mitchell, which is going to happen against Mitchell and will not happen against Dallas.
Down 24-22 with about a minute left, David Blough called a shovel pass to John Bates for the tying two-pointer and Moro Ojomo stuffed it while Rachaad White stood open in the flat. Dan Quinn and Daniels both called it the right call. Washington's defense had 10 tackles for loss and three sacks against a good line, and it allowed 6.0 a carry and three completions of 20 or more.
The Weapons Are Real, And So Is The Defense
Dallas has Prescott, Williams, Lamb, Pickens and Jake Ferguson, and I have a ton of respect for all of them. I am just not convinced this team can pull away from anybody until the defense shows me something, and Week 1 showed me the opposite. Daniels is healthy, he is still a fantastic runner, and McLaurin gets more room here than he did in Philadelphia.
Washington is getting more than a field goal now. That is the number I want against a favorite whose defense just let a rookie quarterback go 9 of 10 on third down.
The Number I'd Take
Commanders +4.5.On Kalshi, that is the Cowboys not winning by five or more, 52 to 53 cents.
I am not betting the total. Both defenses leaked last week and 50.5 already prices that in.
What Moves The Number From Here
- DeMarvion Overshown and Malik Hooker. Both out of practice for Dallas. The defense that allowed 60% success is missing two starters.
- Frankie Luvu. Washington's best pass rusher did not practice. Ten tackles for loss last week ran through him.
- Chig Okonkwo. Did not practice. Daniels' tight end on third down.
- The roof. Ninety-nine degrees outside at AT&T Stadium. If it opens, the pace read changes for a 50.5 total.
My picks for the rest of Week 2 are in NFL Week 2 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Jayden Daniels photo by All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA, licensed CC BY-SA 2.0; Dak Prescott photo by All-Pro Reels, licensed CC BY-SA 2.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
