Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Thursday, September 17, 2026. DraftKings betting splits as of Thursday afternoon; Friday's final injury reports were not out when this was written.
Kansas City has been favored by six or more points 48 times since the start of 2020. It won 44 of them and covered 19. The Week 1 numbers say the Chiefs should be laying more than 6.5 on Sunday night, and six years of results say laying it has been a losing habit. If you just want the pick, it is at the bottom.
The Game Lines
Kalshi in cents, bid and ask. Sportsbook column is the consensus line.
| Line | Kalshi | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread: Chiefs Win By 7 Or More | 50-51¢ | Chiefs −6.5 |
| Total: Over 46.5 Points | 48-49¢ | 46.5 |
| Moneyline: Chiefs Win | 72-74¢ | Chiefs −285 / Colts +230 |
The spread has not moved off 6.5 since the number opened. The total has, from 47.5 on Tuesday to 46.5, and the money explains it: 65% of DraftKings' total bets are on the over and only 23% of the money, which means the under holds 77% of the handle. The spread is one-sided the other way, 80% of bets and 80% of money on Kansas City, and the moneyline is 94% of bets. On Kalshi, Kansas City winning by seven or more is a coin flip at 50 to 51 cents.
Tale of the Tape
Kansas City Is Running It Like Philadelphia Ran Barkley
The strongest take I had all summer was that the Chiefs signed Kenneth Walker III to use him the way the Eagles used Saquon Barkley in 2024. Neither franchise pays running backs, and when one of them does, it is not for a timeshare. Week 1 was the proof: 23 carries for 173 yards and a touchdown, plus a receiving score, against a Denver defense that was very good last year. Kansas City ran it 35 times at 6.4 a carry with five runs of 10 or more, and the game was 31-10.
Nine months off the ACL, Patrick Mahomes went 15 of 27 for 184 yards, two touchdowns and an interception on a deep ball, and he completed passes at a rate 12 points under what the throws called for at an average depth of 4.9 yards. It was good to see him run for a score. I am not ready to say he is all the way back. Travis Kelce caught three balls for 71, most of it one 59-yarder, and Rashee Rice scored and was quiet otherwise.
The defense allowed minus 0.34 EPA a play, 37% success, four sacks, two takeaways and not one completion of 20 yards. Bo Nix's average throw traveled 3.3 yards. That unit made a quiet Mahomes irrelevant.
Indianapolis Got Beaten Up, And Said So
The Colts lost 41-23 at home to Baltimore, and the locker room's own words afterward were that they got their ass whupped. Daniel Jones went 19 of 31 for 166 with a touchdown and a pick and was hit nine times. Jonathan Taylor was fine, 19 carries for 98 and two scores. The defense was the problem: 6.03 yards a carry, six runs of 10 or more, and three completions of 20-plus, two of them Zay Flowers for 49 and 54 on his way to 150 yards before the game was decided. Derrick Henry ran 24 times for 144 and three touchdowns.
Taylor caught a pass, Marlon Humphrey punched the ball out, and Henry scored from 32 yards on the next drive to make it 28-6. After the opening touchdown march, Indianapolis gained 23 yards on its next four possessions. Lucas Oil booed.
It Wins. It Just Doesn't Cover.
Since the start of 2020, Kansas City has been a favorite of six or more points 48 times, playoffs included. It is 44-4 in those games and 19-27-2 against the spread. It covered fewer than half of them in 2020, 2022 and 2024, and the last two seasons are the sharpest version: 10-0 straight up, 3-7 against the number, with the seven misses wins by 1, 7, 7, 6, 2, 3 and 2. The three covers in that stretch were last year's blowouts of the Giants, the Raiders and the Commanders, all bad teams at the time. This is a team that finds a way to win and lets the other side back door the number, and Sunday night is a prime-time game where 80% of the money is on the favorite.
Indianapolis is better than it looked. Shane Steichen's teams are well coached, the offensive line should still be good, and Jones was in the MVP conversation last season before the injury. If the injury is why he looks like this now, I am wrong and I will say so on Tuesday. At 6.5, after a week where the Chiefs' passing game did not do much and the Colts got embarrassed in front of their own fans, I think Indianapolis hangs around.
The Number I'd Take
Colts +6.5.On Kalshi, that is the Chiefs not winning by seven or more, 49 to 50 cents.
I am not betting the total. The money says under at 46.5 and Mahomes' Week 1 arm says the same, so there is no price to argue with.
What Moves The Number From Here
- Josh Simmons. The Chiefs' left tackle did not practice Wednesday. If he is out, the pressure rate against Mahomes is the first thing to reprice.
- Chris Jones. Limited Wednesday. Kansas City's pass rush against Indianapolis's line is the matchup that decides whether 6.5 is enough.
- Keenan Allen. Limited Wednesday for the Colts, with Ashton Dulin already out. Jones needs someone to throw to on third down.
- Sunday night weather at Arrowhead. Wind is the one forecast item that moves a 46.5 total. Check it Sunday afternoon.
My picks for the rest of Week 2 are in NFL Week 2 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Patrick Mahomes photo by All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; Jonathan Taylor photo by All-Pro Reels, licensed CC BY-SA 2.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
