Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Thursday, September 17, 2026. DraftKings betting splits as of Thursday evening; Friday's final injury reports were not out when this was written.
Aaron Rodgers went 0 for 9 on throws of 20 or more air yards in Week 1. Drake Maye threw three interceptions in the fourth quarter of a Super Bowl rematch, the last one in the end zone with 21 seconds left. One of those quarterbacks is 41 and one of them is about to play his second game since a Super Bowl. If you just want the pick, it is at the bottom.
The Game Lines
Kalshi in cents, bid and ask. Sportsbook column is the consensus line.
| Line | Kalshi | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread: Patriots Win By 6 Or More | 48-49¢ | Patriots −5.5 |
| Total: Over 41.5 Points | 49-51¢ | 41.5 |
| Moneyline: Patriots Win | 68-69¢ | Patriots -225 / Steelers +185 |
The spread has held at 5.5. On Kalshi, the Patriots winning by six or more is 48 to 49 cents. The money leans hard to the home team: 66% of DraftKings' spread tickets and 85% of the handle on the Patriots, and the under holds 92% of the money at 41.5, the lowest total of the early window. Rain is in the Foxborough forecast at 67%.
Tale of the Tape
Pittsburgh Won On Defense And Nothing Else
The Steelers beat Atlanta 20-13 and covered as a 6.5-point favorite because of the defense: minus 0.32 EPA a play allowed, four sacks sending extra rushers only 7% of the time, two interceptions of Cooper Rush including T.J. Watt's pick-six. The offense was gross. A 33% success rate, 3.39 a carry with a 28% stuff rate, 3 of 12 on third down.
Rodgers went 24 of 40 for 221. DK Metcalf saw 10 targets at a 20-yard average depth and caught four for 40, with drops. Pittsburgh threw 68% of the time in neutral situations because the run game had nothing. Atlanta's defense is not half of New England's, and that is the offense that has to travel.
Things Could Not Have Gone Worse For New England
New England lost 13-10 in Seattle without Sam Darnold on the other side, which is the part that stings. Maye went 23 of 33 for 178 with a touchdown and three picks, 0 for 4 on deep balls, three interception-worthy throws by FTN's charting. Rhamondre Stevenson ran 18 times for 51. A.J. Brown caught three passes and went to injured reserve with a high ankle sprain for about six weeks.
The defense did everything it could. It sent five or more rushers on 46% of dropbacks, held Seattle to 47 plays, and kept a 10-0 lead through three quarters before the picks started. Mike Vrabel called the fourth-quarter throws aggressive, not reckless, and he rested every starter all preseason and stood by that too.
Why I Reversed Course
There was a version of this where I took Pittsburgh at plus-5.5 off a Patriots team that just lost its best receiver and watched its quarterback throw three picks. Then I looked at what Pittsburgh's offense actually did against a worse defense than this one. Rodgers could not connect deep, the run game could not move, and the Steelers went 3 of 12 on third down. The Patriots can win this on defense alone, and Maye is not going to be that bad again.
Pittsburgh's defense is respectable. Watt is dominant and there are pieces around him. It is not Seattle's defense, and it is not Seattle in Week 1 in front of a Super Bowl crowd. Give me the Patriots laying the 5.5.
The Number I'd Take
Patriots -5.5.On Kalshi, that is the Patriots winning by six or more, 48 to 49 cents.
I am not betting the total. Both offenses were under 42% success and 92% of the money is already on the under.
What Moves The Number From Here
- Carlton Davis III. New England's top corner did not practice. Metcalf's 10 deep targets go at his replacement if he sits.
- Troy Fautanu. Pittsburgh's right tackle did not practice. Rodgers took four sacks behind a full line last week.
- Joey Porter Jr. Limited for Pittsburgh. Without Brown, Maye's outside targets thin out fast, and Porter is the corner they have to beat.
- Rain in Foxborough. 67% with drizzle. Wet ball, fewer deep shots. That pushes the total down before it moves the side.
My picks for the rest of Week 2 are in NFL Week 2 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Aaron Rodgers photo by Cramerwiki, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; Drake Maye photo by Tennessee Titans, licensed CC BY 3.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
