Kalshi prices and sportsbook lines as of Thursday, September 17, 2026. DraftKings betting splits as of Thursday evening; Friday's final injury reports were not out when this was written.
Jordan Love was sacked four times and hit 15 times in Minnesota and still threw for 387 yards. Seven of his completions went for 20 or more. When he had a clean pocket he was excellent, and the Jets' defense does not bring what Brian Flores brought. I can look dumb here, and you can tell me if I am. If you just want the pick, it is at the bottom.
The Game Lines
Kalshi in cents, bid and ask. Sportsbook column is the consensus line.
| Line | Kalshi | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread: Packers Win By 4 Or More | 47-48¢ | Packers −3.5 |
| Total: Over 44.5 Points | 49-50¢ | 44.5 |
| Moneyline: Packers Win | 62-63¢ | Packers -192 / Jets +160 |
The number has held at 3.5. On Kalshi, the Packers winning by four or more is 47 to 48 cents. The money is one-sided in a strange way: 68% of DraftKings' spread tickets are on the Packers but only 47% of the money, and 61% of the moneyline handle is on the Jets at +160. The under has 64% of the money at 44.5. Rain is in the MetLife forecast at 83%, which matters for a team whose offense is chunk plays.
Tale of the Tape
A Row Of Turnstiles, And Seven Bombs Anyway
Green Bay lost 39-22 in Minnesota and the line was the story: a 41% sack-plus-hit rate on charted dropbacks, 3.14 a carry with a 24% stuff rate. Left guard Aaron Banks was inactive and the Jennings-and-Monk combination started, and Matt LaFleur is weighing changes after one week. Josh Jacobs is on the exempt list with a suspension pending, so the backfield is Lloyd, Brooks and Kaleb Johnson.
Love went 21 of 42 for 387 because the shots connected: Watson 6 for 147 and two touchdowns with an 81-yarder, Golden 12 targets for 6-95 and a 31% target share, Kraft back and involved. The defense was actually good, 36% success allowed, 3.55 a carry, three sacks. The game turned when LaFleur took a made field goal off the board on an offside penalty, went for it on fourth-and-1 from the 22 up 22-17, and Love's sneak came up six inches short. Strip-sack, tipped pick, 22 straight Vikings points. He stands by it.
The Jets Beat Tennessee The Way You Beat Tennessee
New York won 23-10 and covered as a 1.5-point dog. Geno Smith went 19 of 24 for 215, sacked zero times, hit once, efficient and unspectacular. The Jets ran 36 times, Breece Hall 22 for 102 and a touchdown, and threw only 45% of the time in neutral situations. Third downs were 2 of 11. Garrett Wilson is the man, and he did his thing.
The defense sent five or more rushers on 30% of dropbacks, got three sacks, and allowed zero completions of 20 or more, which is the number the Packers have to break. It also gave up 4.86 a carry with a 0% stuff rate, and Green Bay without Jacobs ran for 3.14. Neither run game is trustworthy.
Why I Have To Lay It
The Jets' defense is not Minnesota's and the Jets' offense is still liable to be bad. I would be shocked if LaFleur did not give this team an earful about going into New Jersey and not beating the brakes off this Jets team. Green Bay has more talent at every skill spot and a far better quarterback, and it did not need a run game to score 22 against a better defense last week.
This is one of two games this week where I would look at a bigger alternate spread if the price is there. The rain is the reason to be careful with that: a wet ball takes the deep shots down, and the deep shots are the Packers' offense right now.
The Number I'd Take
Packers -3.5.On Kalshi, that is the Packers winning by four or more, 47 to 48 cents.
I am not betting the total. Rain at 83% and a Jets offense that ran 36 times make 44.5 a slow game on paper, and the under money agrees.
What Moves The Number From Here
- Rain at MetLife. 83% and heavy drizzle. Green Bay's offense is the deep ball; a wet ball is the one forecast that moves this side.
- Aaron Banks. Limited Wednesday. He was inactive when the line gave up 19 sacks and hits.
- Minkah Fitzpatrick. Did not practice for the Jets. The safety behind Watson's 81-yarder matters.
- Green Bay's defensive line. Hargrave, Wyatt and Brinson all on the report. Hall ran for 102 last week.
My picks for the rest of Week 2 are in NFL Week 2 Predictions for Every Game.
Nothing here is financial advice.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Jordan Love photo by All-Pro Reels, licensed CC BY-SA 2.0; Breece Hall photo by New York Jets, licensed CC BY 4.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
