Six AI models that priced Week 3 without ever seeing a price had Denver at 62% to beat the Rams. Kalshi had the Rams favored, Denver at 45.5¢ on Saturday. Denver won 30-26. The models priced from the card, not the price: Denver went 14-3 last season and Bo Nix was not on the injury list, while the list the models saw Tuesday carried Puka Nacua, Jordan Whittington and Kamren Kinchens for the Rams, and Monday night's 28-6 over the Giants was the result the market was paying for. The 16.5-point gap was the widest on the board, and by 8 p.m. Sunday the market had come about a third of the way to the panel's number, 50.5¢ at kickoff. The second widest ran the other way: the Saints were 61.5¢ at home against the Raiders, the panel made that game a coin flip, and the Raiders won 35-27.
Through three weeks the market has been closer to the result on 29 of 48 games and the panel on 19; Week 3 went panel 9, market 7.
The Board: All 16 Games
The board runs by the size of the gap, widest first, so the disagreements come before the agreements. Every row is settled: Kalshi is the last price on this page before kickoff, Saturday's for the Sunday and Monday games and Tuesday's for Thursday night, and the last column says which side, the market or the panel, sat nearer the $1 or $0 the contract paid. The Thursday row, priced Tuesday, sits last. Gemini did not return a board; the blend is the other six.
| Game (Away @ Home) | Final | Kalshi: home (Sat) | Polymarket US 🎁: home (Sat) | ProphetX 🎁: home (Sat) | Panel: home | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams @ Broncos | Final: DEN 30-26 | 45.5¢ → $1 | 47.2¢ | 46.5¢ | 62.0% | panel closer by 16.5 |
| Raiders @ Saints | Final: LV 35-27 | 61.5¢ → $0 | 63.6¢ | 62.5¢ | 47.7% | panel closer by 13.8 |
| Vikings @ Buccaneers | Final: MIN 23-16 | 47.5¢ → $0 | 49.3¢ | 48.1¢ | 38.5% | panel closer by 9.0 |
| Patriots @ Jaguars | Final: JAC 35-6 | 59.5¢ → $1 | 61.2¢ | 59.8¢ | 52.3% | market closer by 7.2 |
| Ravens @ Cowboys | Final: BAL 34-31 | 37.5¢ → $0 | 39.7¢ | 39.2¢ | 43.8% | market closer by 6.3 |
| Chiefs @ Dolphins | Final: KC 24-10 | 14.5¢ → $0 | 15.9¢ | 15.6¢ | 20.2% | market closer by 5.7 |
| Panthers @ Browns | Final: CLE 21-18 | 44.5¢ → $1 | 46.3¢ | 45.5¢ | 49.2% | panel closer by 4.7 |
| Eagles @ Bears | Final: CHI 27-7 | 35.5¢ → $1 | 37¢ | 36.8¢ | 31.7% | market closer by 3.8 |
| Bengals @ Steelers | Final: PIT 30-27 | 38.5¢ → $1 | 40.2¢ | 39.2¢ | 42.0% | panel closer by 3.5 |
| Texans @ Colts | Final: IND 19-17 | 46.5¢ → $1 | 48.3¢ | 47.4¢ | 43.8% | market closer by 2.7 |
| Chargers @ Bills | Final: BUF 24-16 | 75.5¢ → $1 | 76.8¢ | 76.2¢ | 77.5% | panel closer by 2.0 |
| Seahawks @ Commanders | Final: WAS 33-31 | 24.5¢ → $1 | 25.3¢ | 24.2¢ | 26.5% | panel closer by 2.0 |
| Titans @ Giants | Final: NYG 12-7 | 55.5¢ → $1 | 57.8¢ | 56.3¢ | 57.3% | panel closer by 1.8 |
| Jets @ Lions | Final: DET 31-24 | 72.5¢ → $1 | 74.4¢ | 73¢ | 70.7% | market closer by 1.8 |
| Cardinals @ 49ers | Final: SF 36-30 | 77.5¢ → $1 | 79.2¢ | 79.1¢ | 77.3% | market closer by 0.2 |
| Falcons @ Packers | Final: ATL 35-14 | 71.5¢ (Tue) → $0 | — | — | 70.0% | panel closer by 1.5 |
Graded Wednesday, September 30, 2026. Kalshi is the page's last pre-kickoff price, Saturday, September 26, 2026, 12:56 p.m. ET, with the two exchanges from 12:55 p.m. ET that day; the Packers row is graded at Tuesday's price, the last one on this page before Thursday's kickoff. The panel's numbers never moved. These are estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
What Moved Since Saturday
The games did. Week 3 finished panel 9, market 7, the first of three graded weeks the panel has won, and it won it on the upsets: eight of Saturday's favorites lost, and on six of the eight the panel was the side nearer the result. The Broncos row that leads this page paid $1. Denver beat the Rams 30-26 on Sunday night from 45.5¢ on Saturday against the panel's 62.0%, and the market's 16.5-point miss is the widest on this week's board. The second widest gap paid the panel too: the Saints were 61.5¢ at home against a panel number of 47.7%, and the Raiders won 35-27.
| Game (Away @ Home) | Kalshi Saturday | Kalshi at kickoff | Final | Panel: home | Closer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams @ Broncos | 45.5¢ | 50.5¢ | DEN 30-26 | 62.0% | panel closer by 16.5 |
| Raiders @ Saints | 61.5¢ | 62.5¢ | LV 35-27 | 47.7% | panel closer by 13.8 |
| Panthers @ Browns | 44.5¢ | 45.5¢ | CLE 21-18 | 49.2% | panel closer by 4.7 |
| Eagles @ Bears | 35.5¢ | 36.5¢ | CHI 27-7 | 31.7% | market closer by 3.8 |
| Bengals @ Steelers | 38.5¢ | 39.5¢ | PIT 30-27 | 42.0% | panel closer by 3.5 |
| Texans @ Colts | 46.5¢ | 47.5¢ | IND 19-17 | 43.8% | market closer by 2.7 |
| Seahawks @ Commanders | 24.5¢ | 22.5¢ | WAS 33-31 | 26.5% | panel closer by 2.0 |
| Falcons @ Packers | 71.5¢ (Tue) | — | ATL 35-14 | 70.0% | panel closer by 1.5 |
Only two prices moved 2 cents or more between Saturday's stamp and kickoff, and they went opposite ways. The kickoff price is the last hourly close before the game started. Denver sat at 45.5¢ from Saturday noon until 4 p.m. ET on Sunday, then climbed five cents in four hours while the early games played, 46.5¢ at 5 p.m., 48.5¢ at 6, 49.5¢ at 7 and 50.5¢ at 8, about a third of the way to the panel's number. By kickoff the market had Denver a slight favorite, half a cent over even; the panel had been there since Tuesday, and a reader who waited paid a coin flip for the side the six models had at 62. Washington went the other way, 24.5¢ on Saturday to 23.5¢ by Saturday evening and 22.5¢ from 10 a.m. Sunday to the 1 p.m. kickoff, further from the panel's 26.5%, and beat Seattle 33-31. The other 13 prices moved a cent or less.
The market's widest wins came where Saturday's favorite held. Jacksonville at 59.5¢ beat New England 35-6 and the market was closer by 7.2, the week's widest win for the price; Dallas at 37.5¢ lost to Baltimore 34-31, Miami at 14.5¢ lost to Kansas City 24-10, and on both the panel had the home dog too high. The market also took two of the upsets, the Bears at 35.5¢ and the Colts at 46.5¢, where the panel had the home dog lower still. Those five rows kept the week from being a rout.
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The Widest Gaps
Rams at Broncos, final DEN 30-26. Kalshi 45.5¢ → $1, panel 62.0%, panel closer by 16.5. The market had the Rams as a road favorite; the models had Denver as a clear home favorite, and the six numbers sat inside a three-point band from 60 to 63. The card said why, and the opening paragraph has it: the 14-3 season, a healthy Bo Nix, three Rams names on the injury list. The panel was paying for the roster and the injury list, and the market was paying for a 28-6 Monday night. Puka Nacua, doubtful on Friday, did not play, Denver won by four, and by kickoff the market had already come a third of the way to the panel's number at 50.5¢.
Raiders at Saints, final LV 35-27. Kalshi 61.5¢ → $0, panel 47.7%, panel closer by 13.8. New Orleans was coming off a win at Baltimore and the market had made the Saints a solid home favorite. The models would not go past a coin flip: the highest of the six was at 52% and the lowest at 44%. Las Vegas had Kirk Cousins at quarterback and had beaten the Chargers on the road in Week 2, and the Saints' quarterback room was Spencer Rattler, Tyler Shough and Zach Wilson. Two teams that finished 6-11 and 3-14 last year were being separated by 23 cents on the strength of one road win each, the panel did not see the difference, and the Raiders scored 35 on the road.
Vikings at Buccaneers, final MIN 23-16. Kalshi 47.5¢ → $0, panel 38.5%, panel closer by 9.0. One of the wide gaps where the panel had the home team cheaper than the market did. Minnesota had just won at Chicago; Tampa Bay had lost at home to Cleveland, a 5-12 team last season. The six numbers ran from 34 to 41. Tampa Bay listed Josiah Trotter and Rueben Bain Jr. out on Friday, the price, a cent above Tuesday's 46.5¢ since Thursday, never came back down, and the Buccaneers lost by seven.
Patriots at Jaguars, final JAC 35-6. Kalshi 59.5¢ → $1, panel 52.3%, market closer by 7.2. Jacksonville went 13-4 last year and the market had the Jaguars as a home favorite; the models had the game close to even. New England went 14-3 with Drake Maye, and the models that leaned New England named its defense. The injury list the models saw Tuesday carried Mike Onwenu and Carlton Davis III as out; Davis played, and it did not matter. Jacksonville won by 29, the largest margin on the board.
Ravens at Cowboys, final BAL 34-31. Kalshi 37.5¢ → $0, panel 43.8%, market closer by 6.3. This gap was 2.3 points on Tuesday morning and was the market's doing: the price fell from 42¢ to 38¢ during Tuesday. Friday's report added P.J. Locke, Cobie Durant, Malik Hooker and DeMarvion Overshown out on the Dallas defense. The six models ran from 40 to 46, priced Tuesday off a card with the Cowboys' 37-20 win over Washington and the Ravens' home loss to the Saints on it. Baltimore's own report had Ronnie Stanley out. Dallas lost by three, and the market's lower number was the nearer one.
Chiefs at Dolphins, final KC 24-10. Kalshi 14.5¢ → $0, panel 20.2%, market closer by 5.7. Miami's quarterbacks were Malik Willis, Kyle McCord and Brady Cook, and the models were not arguing the Dolphins were good. They were arguing that any home team against a Chiefs side that finished 6-11 last year and needed overtime to beat Indianapolis was worth more than the market's one in seven. Grok, at 16%, came closest to the market. Kansas City won by 14, its third straight win over a team the panel liked more than the market did, after Denver 31-10 in Week 1, the widest miss in the Week 1 recap below, and the Colts in overtime in Week 2.
Panthers at Browns, final CLE 21-18. Kalshi 44.5¢ → $1, panel 49.2%, panel closer by 4.7. Cleveland was the home underdog on Kalshi and a toss-up for the models. The Browns had just won at Tampa Bay, the Panthers had just beaten Atlanta 34-3, and Tuesday's card had Carolina's Jonathon Brooks doubtful. The models were not high on Cleveland so much as unconvinced Carolina should be favored on the road with a 2025 record of 8-9, and Cleveland won by three.
Every Model's Number
Each model's probability that the home team wins, in percent, priced Tuesday morning and unchanged since, with Kalshi's Tuesday price beside the blend.
| Game | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | ChatGPT | Grok | Kimi | Blend | Kalshi (Tue) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ GB | 71% | 74% | 72% | 68% | 67% | 68% | 70.0% | 71.5¢ |
| CAR @ CLE | 50% | 51% | 52% | 47% | 45% | 50% | 49.2% | 40.5¢ |
| CIN @ PIT | 43% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 41% | 42% | 42.0% | 37.5¢ |
| HOU @ IND | 48% | 47% | 43% | 43% | 40% | 42% | 43.8% | 42.5¢ |
| KC @ MIA | 19% | 20% | 22% | 22% | 16% | 22% | 20.2% | 13.5¢ |
| LAC @ BUF | 79% | 82% | 78% | 75% | 73% | 78% | 77.5% | 74.5¢ |
| NE @ JAX | 54% | 52% | 48% | 52% | 53% | 55% | 52.3% | 58.5¢ |
| NYJ @ DET | 70% | 73% | 69% | 68% | 72% | 72% | 70.7% | 73.5¢ |
| TEN @ NYG | 58% | 58% | 57% | 57% | 58% | 56% | 57.3% | 62.5¢ |
| ARI @ SF | 76% | 79% | 79% | 78% | 76% | 76% | 77.3% | 78.5¢ |
| MIN @ TB | 38% | 40% | 34% | 41% | 40% | 38% | 38.5% | 46.5¢ |
| BAL @ DAL | 45% | 43% | 40% | 46% | 43% | 46% | 43.8% | 41.5¢ |
| LV @ NO | 50% | 52% | 44% | 47% | 46% | 47% | 47.7% | 62.5¢ |
| LAR @ DEN | 63% | 62% | 63% | 60% | 61% | 63% | 62.0% | 44.5¢ |
| PHI @ CHI | 30% | 33% | 32% | 34% | 28% | 33% | 31.7% | 36.5¢ |
| SEA @ WSH | 28% | 23% | 28% | 28% | 25% | 27% | 26.5% | 27.5¢ |
Week 2, Graded
All 16 rows. Kalshi is the price on this page before kickoff (Tuesday's for Thursday night, Monday afternoon's for Monday night, Sunday 7 a.m. ET for the rest); closer means nearer to the $1 or $0 the contract paid. The final count: market 10, panel 6. Five favorites lost, Texans at 58.5¢, Buccaneers at 78.5¢, Bears at 65.5¢, Ravens at 78.5¢, Chargers at 72.5¢, and on 4 of the 5 the panel was the side nearer the result; the exception was the Texans, where the panel had Houston at 61.6% against the market's 58.5¢. The market took the favorites that won easily: the 49ers by 22, the Cowboys by 17, the Seahawks by 24. Sunday night the Chiefs won (KC 33-30 OT); the market was closer by 3.4.
| Game (Away @ Home) | Final | Kalshi: home | Panel: home | Closer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions @ Bills | BUF 41-31 | 67¢ → $1 | 66.3% | market closer by 0.7 |
| Panthers @ Falcons | CAR 34-3 | 42.5¢ → $0 | 43.1% | market closer by 0.6 |
| Bengals @ Texans | CIN 20-6 | 58.5¢ → $0 | 61.6% | market closer by 3.1 |
| Browns @ Buccaneers | CLE 23-19 | 78.5¢ → $0 | 70.0% | panel closer by 8.5 |
| Packers @ Jets | GB 20-17 OT | 38.5¢ → $0 | 37.3% | panel closer by 1.2 |
| Vikings @ Bears | MIN 9-3 | 65.5¢ → $0 | 59.4% | panel closer by 6.1 |
| Saints @ Ravens | NO 24-17 | 78.5¢ → $0 | 75.9% | panel closer by 2.6 |
| Eagles @ Titans | PHI 24-20 | 24.5¢ → $0 | 23.6% | panel closer by 0.9 |
| Steelers @ Patriots | NE 20-3 | 68.5¢ → $1 | 64.0% | market closer by 4.5 |
| Jaguars @ Broncos | DEN 20-13 | 58.5¢ → $1 | 50.6% | market closer by 7.9 |
| Raiders @ Chargers | LV 26-14 | 72.5¢ → $0 | 66.4% | panel closer by 6.1 |
| Dolphins @ 49ers | SF 35-13 | 89.5¢ → $1 | 77.4% | market closer by 12.1 |
| Seahawks @ Cardinals | SEA 31-7 | 34.5¢ → $0 | 43.4% | market closer by 8.9 |
| Commanders @ Cowboys | DAL 37-20 | 65.5¢ → $1 | 53.9% | market closer by 11.6 |
| Colts @ Chiefs | KC 33-30 OT | 71.5¢ → $1 | 68.1% | market closer by 3.4 |
| Giants @ Rams | LAR 28-6 | 74¢ → $1 | 69.4% | market closer by 4.6 |
Giants at Rams was the test of the whole panel at once: the Rams at 74¢ on Monday afternoon, the panel at 69.4%, every model under the price. The Rams won 28-6, the market was closer by 4.6, and the week finished 10-6 the market's way. The player props for the same game are on Giants vs Rams Player Props, and the game price with the spread is on Giants vs Rams odds. Week 1, priced August 20 by the same method, went 12-4 the market's way, with 4 favorites losing (Rams at 64.5¢, Titans at 51.5¢, Chargers at 80.5¢ and Cowboys at 60.5¢) and the widest miss at Broncos at Chiefs, where the panel had Denver at 54.5% and Kansas City won 31-10.
What Comes Next
All 16 Week 3 rows are graded on the board, and the Week 4 board, priced by the same six models before they see a price, comes next on this page. The live odds screen puts every sportsbook's moneyline next to these prices, the spread version of this board is on AI NFL spread picks, and Stokastic's NFL win projections carries the season-long board.
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