Which NFL team is favored to finish with the worst record in 2026? The Miami Dolphins, one week in. They lost their opener at Las Vegas by two touchdowns, and Kalshi bettors now give them about a one-in-three shot at finishing last (37¢, about +170).
The Arizona Cardinals held that spot all summer. Then they went to the Chargers as the biggest underdog of Week 1 and won, and their price fell by more than three quarters overnight.
The Titans and Browns sit right behind Miami. Tennessee's price nearly tripled and Cleveland's doubled, but on Sunday only one of those moves had real money behind it.
Every Team's Price
What it costs to buy each team on Kalshi as of Friday morning, September 18. Every team not listed costs two cents or less.
| Team | Price to buy, Sept 18 | In August | Week 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 37¢ | 23¢ | Lost 27-13 at Las Vegas |
| Cleveland Browns | 19¢ | 9¢ | Lost 34-10 at Jacksonville |
| Tennessee Titans | 17¢ | 6¢ | Lost 23-10 to the Jets |
| Arizona Cardinals | 7¢ | 26¢ | Won 26-14 at the Chargers |
| Atlanta Falcons | 6¢ | 4¢ | Lost 20-13 at Pittsburgh |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 6¢ | 8¢ | Won 27-13 over Miami |
| New York Jets | 5¢ | 11¢ | Won 23-10 at Tennessee |
| Carolina Panthers | 4¢ | 3¢ | Lost 59-37 to Chicago |
| Washington Commanders | 4¢ | 3¢ | Lost 24-22 at Philadelphia |
| New Orleans Saints | 3¢ | 3¢ | Lost 31-30 in overtime at Detroit |
| Indianapolis Colts | 3¢ | 2¢ | Lost 41-23 to Baltimore |
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Why Miami Is the Favorite
The Dolphins lost 27-13 in Las Vegas, and the way they lost moved the price as much as the score did.
Malik Willis, the quarterback Miami turned to after releasing Tua Tagovailoa, ran for a 14-yard touchdown, the longest by a Dolphins quarterback in more than 20 years. He was also sacked five times and threw an interception, and Miami did not score again after his touchdown.
Bettors changed their minds during the game. Early on, with the Raiders building a lead, most of the money was still betting against Miami finishing last. By the final whistle that had flipped, and Miami's price jumped by more than half in about two hours. It bounced around overnight and settled close to where it sits now. No team on the board drew more betting that day.
In August fewer than 30 thousand bets were open on Miami. Now there are nearly a hundred thousand.
Why Arizona Fell
Arizona was still the favorite a few minutes before its own kickoff on Sunday. By the time the late games ended, almost nobody wanted the bet.
The Cardinals went to the Chargers as 9.5-point underdogs, the biggest spread of Week 1, and won 26-14. Jacoby Brissett, the veteran who took over after the team moved on from Kyler Murray, threw for 277 yards and a touchdown. Mike LaFleur became the first full-time Cardinals head coach to win his debut since Don Coryell in 1973.
The selling started while the game was still on. In its final hour, more than a thousand bets changed hands on Arizona, and all but a handful were people getting out.
Over the summer, the case for Arizona was a quarterback change that looked like a step down and one of the hardest schedules in the league. One game answered the first part: Brissett played well on the road. The schedule is still hard, which is why Arizona still has a price at all.
Tennessee: A Big Jump on Little Money
No team's price has climbed more since August than the Titans'. At first it was also the move to trust least.
Tennessee lost 23-10 at home to the Jets, its sixth straight loss in a season opener. Cam Ward, in his second year, threw for 140 yards, and his only touchdown came in the closing minutes with the game already gone. "I'm very disappointed," Ward said afterward. "We're better than what we showed offensively." Head coach Robert Saleh said he "expected a better performance, for sure."
Bettors agreed, but at first not many of them. Late Sunday the price shot up to nearly a coin flip on a few dozen bets, then spent the night swinging between where it is now and about twice that. Real betting has arrived since. The price has held through the week, and over the past day only Miami drew more action.
Cleveland's Move Had Money Behind It
The Browns are second on the board, just ahead of the Titans, and got there on far heavier betting.
The price started climbing in the first half at Jacksonville, while the Browns were being shut out. By about halftime it was closer to 30 cents than ten. Cleveland lost 34-10. Deshaun Watson threw for 205 yards with a touchdown and an interception, and Trevor Lawrence threw four touchdowns the other way.
Only Miami has more open bets than Cleveland. This is a price people actually paid.
A sportsbook may pay more than Kalshi on the same bet. The OddsShopper live odds screen shows every major book's NFL prices side by side.
The Long Shots: Carolina and Atlanta
Carolina lost 59-37 to Chicago in the highest-scoring season opener in NFL history. Bryce Young threw for 361 yards and three touchdowns and still lost by 22. That points at the defense, and a team that can score usually finds a few wins. The price jumped on Sunday night and by Friday was back near where it sat in August.
Atlanta went up and came all the way back down. After a 20-13 loss at Pittsburgh, every bet on Sunday evening was someone buying. Overnight, every bet was someone selling. The Falcons ended the weekend cheaper than they started it, and have crept back up since.
What Our AI Panel Said in August
In August we asked six AI models for each team's chance of finishing last, without showing them the prices. They agreed with bettors on the favorite, Arizona, and after one week both look wrong. Where the panel split from bettors, it went one for three. It was right to be lower on the Jets, who won. It was wrong to be lower on Miami and higher on the Raiders, who beat Miami. Every August number is graded on the full scoreboard.
How the Bet Settles
Kalshi pays out on the final 2026 regular-season standings. If teams tie for the worst record, the NFL's tiebreakers decide it, and if those can't, the tied teams split the payout. Kalshi expects to settle by February 8, 2027, and can close early once the worst record is locked in.
What to Watch in Week 2
One game out of 17 moved these prices more than four months of offseason news did. The second will show which moves were real.
Carolina goes to Atlanta on Sunday, so unless they tie, one of the two long shots gets a win. Tennessee hosts the Eagles with a price that has only just settled. Miami goes to San Francisco. Its price has the most money behind it and should move the least on one result. Arizona hosts Seattle, and Cleveland goes to Tampa Bay.
For the picks our people are making each day, see the free expert picks page.
Nothing here is financial advice.
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