Dallas Goedert scored twice on Sunday, cashing both our 30-cent and nickel 2+ TD tickets. Tonight we see one of Denver's newest and most expensive investments pay off on the field. That anytime TD is just one of three must trades for MNF.
GEM
Jaylen Waddle, 1+ touchdown — Broncos @ Chiefs, Mon 9/14, 8:15 PM ET
| Book (DraftKings) | Kalshi 1+ (bid / ask) | Kalshi 2+ (bid / ask) |
|---|---|---|
| +180 (35.7¢) | 30¢ / 31¢ | 4¢ / 5¢ |
Stamped Monday, September 14, 2026, 8:56 AM ET. Re-checked 9:32 AM ET: unchanged.
The live order book on Waddle 1+ touchdown, real screenshot of the tool: 30¢ bid, 31¢ ask, $797K resting.
Yes, we are fully aware the Chiefs secondary is a formidable opponent, but the Broncos are going to get Waddle rich or go broke trying. They dealt three picks including a first for him, so expect a heavy target share with Waddle all over the field. Don't be shocked if you see some creativity in the red zone.
The one people will talk themselves out of is next.
UPSET
Denver Broncos to win — Broncos @ Chiefs, Mon 9/14, 8:15 PM ET
| Kalshi (Bid / Ask) | NoVig | Polymarket book |
|---|---|---|
| 44¢ / 45¢ (About 47¢ After Fees) | +120 (45.5¢) | 44¢ / 45¢ (view-only, flagged stale) |
Stamped Monday, 8:56 AM ET. Re-checked 9:32 AM ET: unchanged. A cent worse than Friday.
Both books on Denver to win, real screenshot of the tool: Kalshi 44¢ / 45¢ (47¢ effective after fees) with $8.3M resting; Polymarket's book, view-only and flagged stale, at 44¢ / 45¢.
+2.5 is a dead number. When this line is honest it lives at 3; when it gets bet, it walks to 2.5. That's the move, every time.
The Chiefs are hosting a familiar foe and they are not full strength. Patrick Mahomes is back for the first time since last year's knee injury, and Kansas City is light at the one spot that takes pressure off him. New arrival Kenneth Walker headlines a thin backfield with nothing behind him instilling much confidence against this menacing Broncos D.
Kalshi has Denver at 45 cents to ask, about 47 after fees, a cent worse than Friday. NoVig is 45.5. Polymarket is 44.5. Our number is Denver -4. The market is still Kansas City -2.5.
If you're buying a side, buy the side. Don't dress it up as a hook.
The last ticket is the one that isn't on TV.
PROP
Denver, 3+ sacks — Broncos @ Chiefs, Mon 9/14, 8:15 PM ET
| Kalshi 3+ (Bid / Ask) | Book |
|---|---|
| 61¢ / 66¢ | OPEN (no sportsbook posts a Denver team-sacks line) |
Stamped Monday, 8:56 AM ET. Re-checked 9:32 AM ET: unchanged.
Josh Simmons is out and that's a problem for the Chiefs, especially their quarterback. This is the wrong game to start a rookie in place as the Broncos netted 4 sacks per game last season, with KC giving up nearly 3 per game with a healthier unit. Oh, did we mention that Mahomes is coming off surgery and won't be scampering around much? That seems kind of important. Kalshi 61 / 66. At 66 cents the market already knows but we can't look a gift horse in the mouth.
My Take
Strip the line to neutral: the better team on the field last year is getting points on the road against a club coming off a real drop, starting a quarterback who is just back from a serious knee injury. The market still has Kansas City as the favorite. That's the brand doing the pricing, not the roster in front of you. Don't trust the name on the helmet.
Waddle at 31 cents is the one I want. They paid a first for him. They're going to throw it.
Denver at 45 cents is the side I want. Not +2.5. The moneyline.
Denver 3+ sacks at 66 cents is the one I want if the left tackle looks like a left tackle in Week 1.
The AI panel's board on this game, nine seats graded in public, is here.
These are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
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More on this: NFL 2026 on Kalshi: 49 Live Boards, 10 Days To Kickoff · Five Anytime Tickets and Two First TDs for Monday Night · Broncos-Chiefs Picks: The Moneyline Is the Boring Ticket
