| Week 1 Grade | ||
|---|---|---|
| #1 — Dolphins To Win, 39.5¢ (9 Of 9 Seats) | MISS | Raiders 27-13. |
| #2 — Colts To Win, 39.5¢ (8 Of 9) | MISS | Ravens 41-23. |
| #3 — Buccaneers To Win, 35.5¢ (7 Of 9) | MISS | Bengals 33-27. |
| Wednesday — Patriots To Win, 38.5¢ (2 Of 9) | MISS | Seahawks 13-10. |
Sunday is on the board above, and it was ugly: three consensus dogs, three losses. The board is the product, so it stays up. Tonight is one game and nine seats, each asked to price it this morning before it saw the number.
Tonight: Broncos @ Chiefs
Picks as of September 14, 2026, 12:08 PM ET. Nine seats priced this game blind this morning (asked 8:29 a.m. ET, one revision round, final numbers 8:31 a.m. ET), then met the live Kalshi number. A seat picks a side only when its final probability sits at least 5 points from the price; anything closer and the seat passes.
Broncos @ Chiefs · Kickoff 8:15 p.m. ET · Kalshi mid: Broncos 45.5¢ / Chiefs 54.5¢
| Seat | Pick | Seat Probability | Kalshi Price | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable | Broncos | 54.0% | 45.5¢ | +8.5 |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro | Broncos | 54.0% | 45.5¢ | +8.5 |
| Grok | Broncos | 53.0% | 45.5¢ | +7.5 |
| GLM 5.2 | Passes | 50.0% on Broncos | 45.5¢ | +4.5 |
| Claude Sonnet | Passes | 48.0% on Broncos | 45.5¢ | +2.5 |
| DeepSeek V4 | Passes | 57.0% on Chiefs | 54.5¢ | +2.5 |
| Claude Opus | Passes | 46.0% on Broncos | 45.5¢ | +0.5 |
| ChatGPT (GPT-5.5) | Passes | 46.0% on Broncos | 45.5¢ | +0.5 |
| Kimi K3 | Passes | 46.0% on Broncos | 45.5¢ | +0.5 |
Consensus: 3 of 9 seats on the Broncos; 6 pass, none on the Chiefs.
The winner market is the one line above. The same nine seats' read on every spread and total rung is on the Broncos vs Chiefs model verdict.
Eytan's three tickets on this game are a different product, one name on three plays: Don't Buy Denver +2.5; Take These Three Instead.
These are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
The Track Record
Disagreeing with the market only means something if the disagreements are graded, not just made. This is the same ledger the Wednesday loss above landed in — recomputed from scratch every time this page refreshes, not a stat we're remembering.
Every seat's picks are graded in public against market settlements. The record below is recomputed from the graded ledger on every refresh, by one mechanical rule applied per market: same 5-point divergence test, against the price stored when the panel was asked, graded when the market settled. Net is per $1 contract bought at that stored price — a seat can lose the W-L on cheap sides and still be net positive, so both are shown. Records since 2026-07-20.
| Seat | Sports Picks W-L | Hit | Net | All Picks W-L | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable | 168-205 | 45% | +10.6u | 271-347 | +19.1u |
| Claude Opus | 182-209 | 47% | +6.5u | 270-368 | -2.1u |
| Claude Sonnet | 195-252 | 44% | +13.7u | 314-536 | +3.4u |
| ChatGPT (GPT-5.5) | 213-332 | 39% | +7.9u | 595-1106 | +19.5u |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro | 193-237 | 45% | +9.1u | 366-498 | +12.8u |
| Kimi K3 | 186-256 | 42% | +7.8u | 286-553 | -7.4u |
| GLM 5.2 | 173-257 | 40% | +7.5u | 335-638 | -0.8u |
| DeepSeek V4 | 187-224 | 45% | +0.1u | 423-595 | -2.4u |
| Grok | 144-244 | 37% | +7.6u | 290-767 | +4.3u |
No record here is a promise about the next pick; the point of grading in public is that you never have to take the panel's word for it.
The Bottom Line
Tonight: 3 of 9 seats on the Broncos at 45.5 cents, 6 pass, none on the Chiefs. Sunday's three consensus dogs all lost, and they're graded at the top of this page, not hidden. This page rebuilds every week and last week's record stays on it, here and on the AI model vs. market scoreboard. New to the exchange? How to bet NFL on Kalshi covers fees and settlement. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice. 18+, eligible states only.
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