Thursday Night - Falcons at Packers
Week 3 opens at Lambeau Field, where the Green Bay Packers are 5.5-point favorites over the Atlanta Falcons. Michael Penix Jr. is back under center for a Falcons offense that desperately needs him, netting just 16 points in two games without him. The Packers are without Josh Jacobs and, most likely, Jayden Reed.
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MNF RECAP: Nothing cashed. Jaxson Dart got hurt on the Giants' first drive, so Likely's comfort blanket caught 5 of 10 targets for 33 yards from Jameis Winston, and New York never got past two field goals in a 28-6 loss. Kyren Williams did score, on a 10-yard catch, but Davante Adams had already taken the Rams' first touchdown.
Anytime TD
| Player | Game | Bet | FanDuel | Kalshi ask | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | ATL at GB | Anytime | +155 | 38¢ (+163) | Three of Green Bay's four touchdowns this season, from 81, 2 and 3 yards out, on a team-high 19 targets. Reed is doubtful, and Atlanta just put cornerback A.J. Terrell on IR. |
| Tucker Kraft | ATL at GB | Anytime | +200 | 34¢ (+194) | Atlanta has allowed four offensive touchdowns, all through the air, and three went to tight ends: Pat Freiermuth once and Darren Waller twice. Kraft has 5 catches for 80 yards on 9 targets. |
| Drake London | ATL at GB | Anytime | +195 | 33¢ (+203) | Green Bay has given up three touchdowns to wide receivers, Justin Jefferson twice and Garrett Wilson once. London leads Falcons wide receivers with 10 targets, and that was with Cooper Rush and Jack Strand throwing. |
| Jonnu Smith | ATL at GB | Anytime, long shot | +700 | 14¢ (+614) | The long shot rides the same tight end hole. Smith is Green Bay's No. 2 tight end and caught passes of 43 and 7 yards in Week 1. |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL at GB | 2+ TDs, small stake | +410 | 35¢ (+186) | His anytime is -155 at FanDuel, which breaks this sheet's plus-money rule, so the plus money is at two touchdowns. He has Atlanta's only touchdown this season on 37 carries and 14 targets, and Green Bay has allowed three rushing touchdowns to running backs. Keep this one to a fraction of what you put on the anytime names. |
Best Play: Call me boring, but I'm taking the guy right atop this list. It's hard for me to comprehend how Christian Watson is north of +150 — or really plus money at all — when the Packers are so one-dimensional. They don't just flip the script and push for 150 yards on the ground.
Watson is a magnet for the football, and Jordan Love has already established the connection this season. The best part, as mentioned above: two of Watson's three TDs have come from inside the 4-yard line. He's a threat from 50 or 5 yards out.
First Team Scorer
| Player | Game | Kalshi ask | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL: Kyle Pitts | ATL at GB | 13¢ (+669) | Penix is back, and Pitts is still the top tight end on Atlanta's depth chart. Green Bay has already given up a tight end touchdown, T.J. Hockenson's 16-yarder in Week 1. Kalshi's bid is 2¢, so the ask is wide. |
| GB: Matthew Golden | ATL at GB | 13¢ (+669) | He's right in line with Christian Watson through two games: 10 catches each, 18 targets to Watson's 19, and 153 yards. The Packers are last in the NFL in rushing yards per game (64.5), and all four of their touchdowns have come through the air. Kalshi's bid is 7¢, so the ask is wide. |
FanDuel prices (anytime and 2+ touchdowns) checked 12:21 p.m. ET, Wednesday, September 23, 2026. Kalshi asks (1+ and 2+ touchdowns, and both first-team-touchdown contracts) stamped 12:21 p.m. ET, before fees. FanDuel has no team-first touchdown market for this game.
Hero photo: Michael Penix Jr. by Miguel Martinez/AJC; cropped.
These are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. 18+, eligible states only.
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