MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet: Kalshi & Polymarket Contracts (September 20, 2026)
Board updated September 20, 2026 · 03:10 PM ET · 33 hitters with a contract on at least one exchange. This page rebuilds from the live board throughout the day at this same address.
These are event contracts, not sportsbook props: every market here is two-sided, so you can take either side of a hitter's night — and you can sell your position before first pitch instead of riding a locked ticket. One thing to hold onto before any table: home run contracts resolve no far more often than yes.
Why an exchange?You can sell before first pitch. A sportsbook ticket is locked until the last out — here you hold a position, not a bet. And home runs are longshots, which is where a book's cut is widest. That's the case for it, not a proven fact, and plenty disagree. It's also not a better price — we checked, and you usually don't get one.
Tonight's Name: Pete Alonso (BAL)
punishes four-seam fastballs 15% of the time, and that is 59% of what this starter throws · homers every 17 PA against righties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips.
Trades at Polymarket +337 · our model reads 15.3% — a model read on why the name is interesting tonight, not a pick and not a claim any price is wrong.
The Board, Game By Game
Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles
| Hitter | Kalshi | Polymarket | Model % | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (BAL) | — | +337 | 15.3% | punishes four-seam fastballs 15% of the time, and that is 59% of what this starter throws |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | — | +337 | 9.2% | bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL) | — | +500 | 8.0% | punishes four-seam fastballs 16% of the time, and that is 59% of what this starter throws |
| William Contreras (MIL) | — | +465 | 7.2% | homers every 31 PA against righties |
| Coby Mayo (BAL) | — | +381 | 7.1% | 33% of his damage flies pull-side |
Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels
| Hitter | Kalshi | Polymarket | Model % | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kody Clemens (MIN) | — | +337 | 13.9% | 25% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind |
| Mike Trout (LAA) | — | +319 | 12.6% | 18% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind |
| Josh Bell (MIN) | — | +381 | 11.9% | 20% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind |
| Zach Neto (LAA) | — | +381 | 11.6% | punishes four-seam fastballs 15% of the time, and that is 27% of what a slumping starter (harder contact allowed than 73% of MLB starters over his last 5 starts) throws |
| Walker Jenkins (MIN) | — | +539 | 9.9% | 32% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind |
| Moisés Ballesteros (LAA) | — | +465 | 8.6% | 21% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | — | +381 | 8.5% | 22% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind |
| Emmanuel Rodriguez (MIN) | — | +434 | 8.3% | 32% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind |
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
| Hitter | Kalshi | Polymarket | Model % | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernández (LAD) | +351 | +286 | 12.3% | on the bat alone — homers every 21 PA against lefties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way |
| Mookie Betts (LAD) | — | +381 | 8.6% | punishes four-seam fastballs 15% of the time, and that is 59% of what a slumping starter (harder contact allowed than 73% of MLB starters over his last 5 starts) throws |
| Josue De Paula (LAD) | +755 | — | 8.5% | 35% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind |
| Scott Bandura (SF) | — | -10426 | 8.2% | 35% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind |
| Jonah Cox (SF) | +841 | — | 7.9% | 30% of his damage flies pull-side |
New to Polymarket?Deposit $10, get a $20 trading bonus with code OS4 — how to claim it. We're paid for this referral; 18+/21+ and eligibility vary by state. The Kalshi links on this page carry no code — we have no Kalshi deal.
Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres
| Hitter | Kalshi | Polymarket | Model % | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | — | +301 | 11.3% | homers every 19 PA against righties |
| Griffin Conine (MIA) | +529 | — | 10.5% | punishes four-seam fastballs 15% of the time, and that is 20% of what this starter throws |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | — | +406 | 10.2% | punishes four-seam fastballs 14% of the time, and that is 14% of what a slumping starter (harder contact allowed than 78% of MLB starters over his last 5 starts) throws |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | — | +301 | 9.9% | bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips |
| Manny Machado (SD) | — | +381 | 9.2% | punishes four-seam fastballs 15% of the time, and that is 13% of what a slumping starter (harder contact allowed than 78% of MLB starters over his last 5 starts) throws |
| Heriberto Hernández (MIA) | +425 | +406 | 7.5% | punishes four-seam fastballs 14% of the time, and that is 15% of what this starter throws |
| Ty France (SD) | +625 | — | 5.8% | homers every 37 PA against righties |
New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks
| Hitter | Kalshi | Polymarket | Model % | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice (NYY) | +490 | +465 | 10.3% | bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips |
| Ketel Marte (AZ) | — | +465 | 8.7% | 36% of his damage flies pull-side |
| Corbin Carroll (AZ) | — | +465 | 8.7% | homers every 22 PA against righties |
| Luis García Jr. (NYY) | — | +465 | 8.1% | homers every 20 PA against righties |
| Spencer Jones (NYY) | +573 | — | 7.4% | on the bat alone — homers every 22 PA against righties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way |
| Heliot Ramos (NYY) | — | +500 | 7.3% | on the bat alone — homers every 33 PA against righties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way |
| Gabriel Moreno (AZ) | +1074 | — | 7.0% | homers every 28 PA against righties |
| Lars Nootbaar (AZ) | +625 | — | 5.9% | homers every 43 PA against righties |
The Honest Price Note
Across 64 hitters priced on both an exchange and the sportsbooks on our own board, the prediction-market price beat the best book zero times — it tied it 25% of the time and was shorter 75%. If you trade here, trade here for the venue: broad, state-specific availability under federal oversight, no house on the other side of your position, and the right to exit before first pitch — not for a better number. Anyone can price-check that claim in thirty seconds, which is exactly why it's on the page.
Nothing on this page is a pick. The model read explains why a name is interesting tonight — never that a contract is mispriced. 18+; exchange availability is state-specific, so confirm eligibility with the venue before funding an account.
