MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet: Kalshi & Polymarket Contracts (August 10, 2026)
Board updated August 10, 2026 · 12:15 PM ET · 48 hitters with a contract on at least one exchange. This page rebuilds from the live board throughout the day at this same address.
These are event contracts, not sportsbook props: every market here is two-sided, so you can take either side of a hitter's night — and you can sell your position before first pitch instead of riding a locked ticket. One thing to hold onto before any table: home run contracts resolve no far more often than yes.
Why an exchange?
You can sell before first pitch. A sportsbook ticket is locked until the
last out — here you hold a position, not a bet. And home runs are
longshots, which is where a book's cut is widest.
That's the case for it, not a proven fact, and plenty disagree. It's also
not a better price — we checked, and you usually don't get one.
Tonight's Name: Shohei Ohtani (LAD)
punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 32% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time.
Trades at Kalshi +252 · Polymarket +257 · our model reads 19.0% — a model read on why the name is interesting tonight, not a pick and not a claim any price is wrong.
The Board, Game By Game
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
| Hitter | Kalshi | Polymarket | Model % | Why |
|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | +252 | +257 | 19.0% | punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 32% of what this starter throws |
| Jac Caglianone (KC) | — | +539 | 11.1% | punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 36% of what this starter throws |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | +425 | +434 | 10.1% | punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 38% of what this starter throws |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | — | +584 | 9.6% | punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 38% of what this starter throws |
| Freddie Freeman (LAD) | +529 | +539 | 9.4% | punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 32% of what this starter throws |
| Teoscar Hernández (LAD) | — | +500 | 8.6% | sees the starter a 3rd time |
| Andy Pages (LAD) | — | +465 | 7.6% | bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips |
| Tommy Edman (LAD) | — | +465 | 7.1% | sees the starter a 3rd time |
Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics
| Hitter | Kalshi | Polymarket | Model % | Why |
|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | +240 | +233 | 17.7% | 26% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 9 mph |
| Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) | — | +381 | 11.1% | 19% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 5 mph |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | +529 | +539 | 9.8% | 20% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 5 mph |
| Jonah Heim (ATH) | — | +500 | 6.1% | 31% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 5 mph |
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
| Hitter | Kalshi | Polymarket | Model % | Why |
|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | +351 | +358 | 17.6% | 90° air |
| Drake Baldwin (ATL) | — | +434 | 14.7% | 90° air |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) | +425 | +406 | 14.6% | 20% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | +490 | +465 | 11.5% | 90° air |
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals
| Hitter | Kalshi | Polymarket | Model % | Why |
|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | +280 | +301 | 16.4% | 90° air |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | +529 | +539 | 11.4% | 90° air |
| Jordan Walker (STL) | — | +500 | 9.9% | 14% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | +755 | +698 | 7.6% | 19% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph |
Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants
| Hitter | Kalshi | Polymarket | Model % | Why |
|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | +313 | +319 | 15.1% | 11% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 9 mph |
| Rafael Devers (SF) | +456 | +500 | 11.6% | 18% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 9 mph |
| Bryce Eldridge (SF) | — | +500 | 11.1% | 13% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 9 mph |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | +573 | +584 | 8.9% | 24% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 10 mph |
| Daulton Varsho (HOU) | — | +539 | 7.8% | 31% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 9 mph |
New to Polymarket? Deposit $10, get a $20 trading bonus with code OS4 — how to claim it. We're paid for this referral; 18+/21+ and eligibility vary by state. The Kalshi links on this page carry no code — we have no Kalshi deal.
Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins
| Hitter | Kalshi | Polymarket | Model % | Why |
|---|
| Pete Alonso (BAL) | +373 | +358 | 13.5% | punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 61% of what this starter throws |
| Josh Bell (MIN) | — | +539 | 8.3% | punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 52% of what this starter throws |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | +456 | +500 | 7.3% | bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips |
| Colton Cowser (BAL) | — | +539 | 6.9% | baseline power edge |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | — | +500 | 6.7% | bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips |
| Tyler O'Neill (BAL) | — | +406 | 6.3% | baseline power edge |
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
| Hitter | Kalshi | Polymarket | Model % | Why |
|---|
| Corey Seager (TEX) | — | +406 | 12.2% | punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 50% of what this starter throws |
| Jake Burger (TEX) | — | +406 | 10.4% | baseline power edge |
| Zach Neto (LAA) | — | +465 | 9.8% | punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 52% of what this starter throws |
| Mike Trout (LAA) | +456 | +465 | 9.5% | bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips |
| Wyatt Langford (TEX) | — | +406 | 9.2% | bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips |
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
| Hitter | Kalshi | Polymarket | Model % | Why |
|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | — | +337 | 10.8% | baseline power edge |
| Willson Contreras (BOS) | — | +381 | 9.6% | punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 26% of what this starter throws |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | +685 | +637 | 8.7% | bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips |
| Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) | — | +500 | 8.3% | sees the starter a 3rd time |
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
| Hitter | Kalshi | Polymarket | Model % | Why |
|---|
| Corbin Carroll (AZ) | +456 | +465 | 9.5% | punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 56% of what this starter throws |
| Ketel Marte (AZ) | +573 | +584 | 8.4% | punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 56% of what this starter throws |
| Mickey Moniak (COL) | — | +465 | 8.2% | baseline power edge |
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres
| Hitter | Kalshi | Polymarket | Model % | Why |
|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | +490 | +500 | 9.3% | punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 46% of what this starter throws |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | — | +465 | 8.8% | punishes sliders, and that is 41% of what this starter throws |
| Jake Bauers (MIL) | — | +465 | 8.8% | baseline power edge |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | +529 | +500 | 8.5% | bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | +529 | +500 | 8.0% | punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 44% of what this starter throws |
The Honest Price Note
Across 64 hitters priced on both an exchange and the sportsbooks on our own board, the prediction-market price beat the best book zero times — it tied it 25% of the time and was shorter 75%. If you trade here, trade here for the venue: broad, state-specific availability under federal oversight, no house on the other side of your position, and the right to exit before first pitch — not for a better number. Anyone can price-check that claim in thirty seconds, which is exactly why it's on the page.
Nothing on this page is a pick. The model read explains why a name is interesting tonight — never that a contract is mispriced. 18+; exchange availability is state-specific, so confirm eligibility with the venue before funding an account.
