MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet: Kalshi & Polymarket Contracts (September 10, 2026)
Board updated September 10, 2026 · 09:10 AM ET · 20 hitters with a contract on at least one exchange. This page rebuilds from the live board throughout the day at this same address.
These are event contracts, not sportsbook props: every market here is two-sided, so you can take either side of a hitter's night — and you can sell your position before first pitch instead of riding a locked ticket. One thing to hold onto before any table: home run contracts resolve no far more often than yes.
Why an exchange? You can sell before first pitch. A sportsbook ticket is locked until the last out — here you hold a position, not a bet. And home runs are longshots, which is where a book's cut is widest. That's the case for it, not a proven fact, and plenty disagree. It's also not a better price — we checked, and you usually don't get one.
Tonight's Name: Aaron Judge (NYY)
punishes four-seam fastballs 18% of the time, and that is 22% of what this starter throws.
Trades at Polymarket +233 · our model reads 22.1% — a model read on why the name is interesting tonight, not a pick and not a claim any price is wrong.
The Board, Game By Game
Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees
| Hitter | Kalshi | Polymarket | Model % | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | — | +233 | 22.1% | punishes four-seam fastballs 18% of the time, and that is 22% of what this starter throws |
| Spencer Jones (NYY) | — | +406 | 13.9% | on the bat alone — homers every 20 PA against righties, with nothing in the park or matchup either way |
Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies
| Hitter | Kalshi | Polymarket | Model % | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | — | +286 | 20.2% | punishes four-seam fastballs 15% of the time, and that is 41% of what this starter throws |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | — | +337 | 16.0% | 15% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind |
| Daulton Varsho (HOU) | — | +539 | 11.2% | 27% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | +685 | +584 | 9.4% | homers every 22 PA against righties |
| Brandon Marsh (PHI) | — | +500 | 9.0% | 18% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | — | +500 | 7.6% | homers every 29 PA against righties |
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners
| Hitter | Kalshi | Polymarket | Model % | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | — | +337 | 13.6% | punishes sinkers and cutters 15% of the time, and that is 3% of what this starter throws |
| Dominic Canzone (SEA) | — | +500 | 11.6% | punishes four-seam fastballs 14% of the time, and that is 42% of what this starter throws |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | — | +637 | 7.5% | bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips |
New to Polymarket? Deposit $10, get a $20 trading bonus with code OS4 — how to claim it. We're paid for this referral; 18+/21+ and eligibility vary by state. The Kalshi links on this page carry no code — we have no Kalshi deal.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves
| Hitter | Kalshi | Polymarket | Model % | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | — | +319 | 13.4% | homers every 19 PA against righties |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | — | +381 | 11.7% | 88° air |
| Drake Baldwin (ATL) | — | +465 | 10.8% | homers every 23 PA against righties |
| Yandy Díaz (TB) | — | +539 | 9.4% | homers every 20 PA against lefties |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | — | +698 | 7.9% | 88° air |
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox
| Hitter | Kalshi | Polymarket | Model % | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munetaka Murakami (CWS) | +351 | — | 11.2% | homers every 14 PA against righties |
| Colson Montgomery (CWS) | +398 | +465 | 9.3% | 34% of his damage flies pull-side |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | — | +584 | 6.2% | homers every 38 PA against lefties — but hitting into a 5 mph wind |
| Konnor Griffin (PIT) | — | +637 | 5.1% | bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips |
The Honest Price Note
Across 64 hitters priced on both an exchange and the sportsbooks on our own board, the prediction-market price beat the best book zero times — it tied it 25% of the time and was shorter 75%. If you trade here, trade here for the venue: broad, state-specific availability under federal oversight, no house on the other side of your position, and the right to exit before first pitch — not for a better number. Anyone can price-check that claim in thirty seconds, which is exactly why it's on the page.
Nothing on this page is a pick. The model read explains why a name is interesting tonight — never that a contract is mispriced. 18+; exchange availability is state-specific, so confirm eligibility with the venue before funding an account.
