Three weeks from kickoff, the 2026 NFL win total market is not one market. DraftKings has the Miami Dolphins at 4.5 wins. FanDuel has them at 3.5. Kalshi, the regulated exchange where win totals trade as yes-or-no contracts, prices Miami's full ladder in between: 4 or more wins costs about 58 cents on the dollar, 5 or more drops to 39. Same team, same 17-game season, and the number you are betting against depends entirely on which app you open. Miami is not the exception, either. In mid-August, 10 of 32 teams sat a full game apart between the two biggest sportsbooks.
This page runs that comparison for all 32 teams at once. Below is every team's posted total on FanDuel and DraftKings next to what Kalshi's exchange ladder implies, so you can see where the three venues agree, where they are having an argument, and which side of each argument the real-money exchange market takes. The prices tell one more story that has nothing to do with any single team, a structural one about what each platform charges you to play, and one number buried in the exchange data settles how honest the whole board is. That one comes after the table.
The Quick Answer
FanDuel and DraftKings disagree on the posted 2026 win total for 10 of 32 NFL teams, always by exactly one game (FanDuel's board as posted August 13, DraftKings' as checked August 18, so a gap can be timing as well as disagreement). Kalshi's exchange ladder rules on all ten: it prices a coin flip at FanDuel's number on the Ravens, Browns and Bengals, backs DraftKings' number on the Steelers, Eagles, Falcons and Titans, and puts Miami, Arizona and San Francisco between the two. On price, the exchange and the books nearly converge at the main numbers, so the real edge is not a cheaper venue, it is that nearly a third of the league is posted at two different numbers at once. The full 32-team board, the worked cost math, and the loudest full-game gap on the board, the Cleveland Browns, are below.
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The Full 2026 NFL Win Total Board: FanDuel Vs DraftKings Vs Kalshi
FanDuel totals are as posted August 13; DraftKings totals and juice are from its board as checked August 18; Kalshi prices are live exchange quotes (bid-ask, in cents) pulled August 18. FanDuel's juice is deliberately omitted, because no FanDuel price source fresh enough to trust cleared our bar this week, and a stale price is worse than none. "Clear the DK number" is the Kalshi contract equivalent to the DraftKings over: clearing a 9.5 total means 10+ wins. Win totals move daily in August, so treat any single cell as a snapshot and confirm the current number before you bet it.
| Team | FanDuel Total | DraftKings Total (Over/Under) | Kalshi: Clear The DK Number | Kalshi Expected Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 10.5 | 11.5 (+115/-140) | 12+ wins at 39-40¢ | 10.5 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 11.5 | 11.5 (-125/+105) | 12+ wins at 52-54¢ | 11.4 |
| Buffalo Bills | 10.5 | 10.5 (-120/+100) | 11+ wins at 52-54¢ | 10.7 |
| Detroit Lions | 10.5 | 10.5 (-110/-112) | 11+ wins at 53-55¢ | 10.6 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10.5 | 10.5 (+115/-140) | 11+ wins at 41-43¢ | 9.8 |
| New England Patriots | 10.5 | 10.5 (+125/-150) | 11+ wins at 42-44¢ | 9.8 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 9.5 | 10.5 (+105/-125) | 11+ wins at 44-46¢ | 10.1 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 9.5 | 10.5 (+125/-145) | 11+ wins at 40-41¢ | 9.8 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10.5 | 10.5 (-115/-105) | 11+ wins at 53-55¢ | 10.4 |
| Chicago Bears | 9.5 | 9.5 (+100/-120) | 10+ wins at 48-49¢ | 9.3 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 10.5 | 9.5 (-140/+115) | 10+ wins at 62-64¢ | 10.0 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9.5 | 9.5 (+115/-140) | 10+ wins at 54-55¢ | 9.3 |
| Denver Broncos | 9.5 | 9.5 (-115/-105) | 10+ wins at 53-55¢ | 9.6 |
| Green Bay Packers | 9.5 | 9.5 (-140/+115) | 10+ wins at 58-60¢ | 9.7 |
| Houston Texans | 9.5 | 9.5 (-125/+105) | 10+ wins at 61-62¢ | 10.0 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 9.5 | 9.5 (-130/+110) | 10+ wins at 58-59¢ | 9.9 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 8.5 | 8.5 (+110/-130) | 9+ wins at 59-60¢ | 9.1 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.5 | 8.5 (-110/-110) | 9+ wins at 53-54¢ | 8.9 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.5 | 8.5 (+100/-120) | 9+ wins at 47-48¢ | 8.5 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8.5 | 8.5 (-125/+105) | 9+ wins at 42-44¢ | 8.1 |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 | 7.5 (+110/-130) | 8+ wins at 43-44¢ | 7.3 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 7.5 | 7.5 (-130/+110) | 8+ wins at 55-56¢ | 7.9 |
| New Orleans Saints | 7.5 | 7.5 (-120/+100) | 8+ wins at 54-55¢ | 7.9 |
| New York Giants | 7.5 | 7.5 (-115/-105) | 8+ wins at 48-50¢ | 7.6 |
| Washington Commanders | 7.5 | 7.5 (-120/+100) | 8+ wins at 45-47¢ | 7.3 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7.5 | 6.5 (-115/-105) | 7+ wins at 54-55¢ | 7.2 |
| Cleveland Browns | 5.5 | 6.5 (+105/-120) | 7+ wins at 35-36¢ | 5.5 |
| Tennessee Titans | 7.5 | 6.5 (-110/-110) | 7+ wins at 44-48¢ | 6.4 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 5.5 | 5.5 (-146/+120) | 6+ wins at 57-58¢ | 6.4 |
| New York Jets | 5.5 | 5.5 (-120/+100) | 6+ wins at 51-53¢ | 5.8 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3.5 | 4.5 (+125/-150) | 5+ wins at 38-39¢ | 4.3 |
| Miami Dolphins | 3.5 | 4.5 (-110/-110) | 5+ wins at 38-39¢ | 4.4 |
Expected wins is the ladder's average, not its coin-flip point; a bad-season tail drags it below the fair posted number, so judge a posted total against the rung price, not this column. More on that below.
No row on the board argues louder than Cleveland. FanDuel posts the Browns at 5.5 wins, DraftKings holds them at 6.5, and Kalshi's ladder takes a side: 6 or more Browns wins trades at 51 to 52 cents, a near-perfect coin flip, which is the exchange's way of saying FanDuel's 5.5 is the right main number. Clearing DraftKings' 6.5 instead, 7 or more wins, trades at just 35 to 36 cents, roughly a 2-to-1 underdog proposition. The decision that falls out is concrete: a Browns under bettor should be attacking the 6.5 at DraftKings, a full game above the number FanDuel would make them beat (check FanDuel's price on its 5.5 before treating the extra game as free, since no fresh FanDuel juice quote cleared our bar this week), and a Browns over bettor should be doing the exact opposite. Nothing else in this article is worth more than that one row, and it costs nothing but the looking.
Here is the promised honesty check on the whole board. A 17-game NFL season with 272 scheduled games can hand out at most 272 team wins, and every tie subtracts one from that total. Sum Kalshi's expected wins for all 32 ladders and you get 273.3. The entire exchange board, roughly 1.8 million contracts of trading across 544 separate markets, carries about a win and a third of collective optimism across the whole league, half a percent of the total. A sportsbook board can never show you that number, because each team's total is priced separately with margin baked into both sides. The exchange's ladder structure is what makes the league-wide sanity check possible at all, and half a percent of drift is the board passing it.
Same Bet, Three Different Machines
Why does one venue even have a "ladder" while the others post a single number? Because the products are built differently, and the structure is most of what this comparison is really about.
A sportsbook win total is one posted market per team: a main number, an over price, an under price. Other numbers usually exist, but each is a separately priced market with its own odds, not a discount or surcharge on the main one. As Ben Rasa hammers on our shows, an 8.5 posted next to a 9.5 main is its own bet at its own price, and the books price those alternate numbers aggressively in their favor. If the mechanics of season totals are new to you, our NFL win totals guide covers how the numbers get set and moved; this piece assumes that base.
Kalshi does not post a main number at all. Each team gets an event with 17 yes-or-no contracts, one per threshold from 1+ wins on up. Every rung is its own order book with its own bid and ask, quoted in cents, settling at one dollar if the team clears that threshold and zero if it does not, graded on the regular season with ESPN and NFL.com named as the settlement sources. "10+ wins" is exactly the claim "over 9.5" makes at a book. The difference is that the whole curve trades at once, which is how the table above can quote you Miami at both 4+ and 5+ when the two books cannot even agree which number to post. How to bet NFL on Kalshi walks the mechanics of actually getting an order filled.
One warning belongs next to the word "settlement." Read the rung you are buying, because exchange contracts settle on the letter of the rules, not the spirit of your bet. We covered a live example in Kalshi's Steelers over 8.5 settlement, where a position a bettor thought had won showed a refund instead of a payout. Five minutes with the market rules is cheap insurance.
Worked Example: What Each Venue Charges On The Same Coin Flip
Structure decides what you can bet; cost decides what it is worth. Take the Chicago Bears, the cleanest coin flip on the board. DraftKings posts 9.5 at +100 over, -120 under: 50.0 percent implied on one side, 54.5 on the other, a 104.5 total, which is a 4.5-point overround and works out to about 4.3 cents of hold on every dollar staked. On Kalshi, 10+ wins is 48 bid, 49 ask. Buy yes at 49, or take the other side by buying no at 52 (one dollar minus the 48 bid), and both sides together cost 101 cents before fees. That looks like a clear exchange win until the fee arrives: Kalshi's published taker-fee formula works out to roughly seven percent of price times one minus price per contract, which peaks right at 50 cents, costing each side close to two cents more. Taker versus taker, the honest total lands within a whisker of the book's 104.5.
So no, the exchange is not automatically cheaper here, and anyone telling you otherwise has not done the arithmetic at the coin flip, where win totals live by design. We ran the full fee curve in Kalshi NFL futures vs sportsbooks, and the summary is that the exchange's cost advantage is enormous on longshot futures and thinnest on exactly this market. What the exchange gives you instead is threefold: resting orders (post your own bid below the ask and let the market come to you, paying less than the taker does, if it fills), the full ladder (every threshold bettable wherever a quote is posted, not just the book's chosen number), and the exit door (sell your position in September or November at the market price instead of holding a frozen ticket to January). The general cost comparison across the two platform types is in Kalshi fees vs sportsbook vig.
Where the venues converge, they converge hard. New England's over 10.5 costs +125 at DraftKings, which implies 44.4 percent; Kalshi's 11+ wins asks 44 cents. The Raiders' over 5.5 at -146 implies 59.3 percent; Kalshi's 6+ wins asks 58, call it 59 after the fee. Two completely different market structures, two different sets of participants, and the raw prices land within a cent of each other before fees. The sharp-line lesson hiding in this comparison is exactly that: when an exchange full of real-money traders and a major book's risk room independently arrive at the same number, whatever you were thinking is probably already in the price.
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The 10 Teams Where The Books Disagree, And Who The Ladder Backs
Back to the board's real payoff. Every one of the 10 splits is exactly one game wide, and the exchange rules on each of them by a simple test: a posted total is a claim that over and under are a toss-up, so if the ladder prices one book's number within about five cents of a 50-cent coin flip, that is the number the exchange would post as the main one. When neither book's number gets that close, the exchange's honest number sits in the gap between the two posted totals.
| Split Team | FanDuel | DraftKings | Kalshi Price To Clear Each | Exchange's Coin Flip Sits At |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 10.5 | 11.5 | 51-55¢ / 39-40¢ | FanDuel's 10.5 |
| Cleveland Browns | 5.5 | 6.5 | 51-52¢ / 35-36¢ | FanDuel's 5.5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 10.5 | 9.5 | 45-46¢ / 62-64¢ | FanDuel's 10.5 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.5 | 8.5 | 65-66¢ / 47-48¢ | DraftKings' 8.5 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 9.5 | 10.5 | 61-62¢ / 44-46¢ | DraftKings' 10.5 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7.5 | 6.5 | 42-43¢ / 54-55¢ | DraftKings' 6.5 |
| Tennessee Titans | 7.5 | 6.5 | 33-35¢ / 44-48¢ | DraftKings' 6.5 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 9.5 | 10.5 | 56-57¢ / 40-41¢ | Between the books |
| Miami Dolphins | 3.5 | 4.5 | 55-58¢ / 38-39¢ | Between the books |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3.5 | 4.5 | 59-60¢ / 38-39¢ | Between the books |
The "clear each" column is the cost of the yes contract at each book's over: clearing FanDuel's number first, DraftKings' second. Read down the verdict column and the pattern is the interesting part: the exchange is not systematically backing the lower number. It calls FanDuel right on Baltimore, Cleveland and Cincinnati, and on Cincinnati that means backing FanDuel's HIGHER 10.5, with 11 or more Bengals wins trading at 45 to 46 cents while DraftKings still posts 9.5. It calls DraftKings right on Pittsburgh (9+ wins at 47-48 cents, a near coin flip against FanDuel's 7.5), Philadelphia, Atlanta and Tennessee. And on the three "between" teams, neither rung prices within five cents of the flip, meaning the exchange's true number lives in the gap the books are arguing across: Miami's ladder prices 4+ wins at 55-58 and 5+ at 38-39, a market whose honest main number is 4, splitting FanDuel's 3.5 and DraftKings' 4.5 almost exactly.
One subtlety is worth thirty seconds, because the table above contains two different Kalshi numbers and they disagree on purpose. Baltimore's expected wins, the full-ladder average from the big board, is 10.5. But 11 or more Ravens wins still trades at 51 to 55 cents, a coin flip. Both are real: a contender's ladder carries a fat left tail (the quarterback injury, the lost season) that drags the average below the coin-flip point. The average answers "how many wins should I project?"; the rung price answers "which posted number is fair?" A win total is a bet on the second question, which is why this section referees with rung prices and not the averages.
Notice what the exchange data adds even when you never plan to trade there. The ladder is a real-money second opinion on every posted number, one that carries a bid-ask spread and a fee but no bookmaker's hold, and it is a well-traded one: New York Giants contracts alone have traded about 148,000 lots since listing, the busiest ladder on the board, with Arizona, Minnesota and Miami all near 100,000. When that market and your book disagree by a full game, one of them is probably giving you the better number, and the exchange price helps decide which side deserves the closer look. Our price-blind model panel ran the same exercise from the projection side in the NFL win totals model verdict, and the overlaps with this board are worth your time.
One more thing the old futures hands know: this board does not close at kickoff. As we broke down on our Sports Futures win totals show back in the Awesemo days (the same crew that became Stokastic and OddsShopper — watch on YouTube; the 2019 prices in it are ancient, the framework is not), season totals keep trading after the games start, and the number you like in August is rarely the number available in October. On Kalshi that is literal, with the ladder repricing every week; some books keep a total posted into the season as well, at whatever number the results have forced. The comparison in this article is a starting grid, not a finish line.
How I Would Shop This Board
My own routine off this table is three steps: pick the team read first (where your projection disagrees with the market by a real margin, the way the win totals guide lays out), then take the better posted number if your team is a split, and only then compare venue cost at that number. Here is what the routine looks like on the row I keep coming back to. Say your projection agrees with the exchange that Cleveland is a six-win team. DraftKings' under 6.5 is priced at -120, which implies 54.5 percent. The exchange prices the same claim, six wins or fewer, at roughly 64 to 65 cents, the mirror of the 7+ rung at 35 to 36. That is a ten-point gap between what the book charges for the position and what the exchange believes about it, on top of the extra half-game DraftKings' 6.5 hands an under bettor over FanDuel's 5.5. It is not automatically a bet; part of that gap can be timing, and your own projection has to carry the decision. But it is exactly the kind of gap this routine exists to surface, and the venue-cost step then decides how to take it: pay the book's -120, lift the exchange ask, or post a resting bid a cent or two under it and let the market come to you. In no other major football market do the two biggest books in the country disagree on nearly a third of the league at once, which is why the routine pays here more than anywhere.
The same shopping logic applies one shelf over, by the way. Our college football win totals board runs every CFB team's number the same way. And once the season starts, the discipline transfers straight to weekly lines: the live odds screen puts 20+ sportsbooks' prices side by side on NFL game lines, which is the habit this whole article is really teaching.
If you want the venue-level deep dives, the head-to-head pages go further than this board could: Kalshi vs DraftKings on the full exchange-vs-book question, and Kalshi vs FanDuel for the FanDuel side. On availability: Kalshi operates under federal CFTC regulation and is available broadly, though several states are actively contesting event contracts, and eligibility is not the same thing as sportsbook legality, so check the current picture in are prediction markets legal before you fund anything.
Season win totals reward the bettor who does the boring work: a real projection, the best posted number, the cheapest venue at that number, in that order. OS Pro handles the middle step for you, every day, across every book that posts a line.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Kalshi Cheaper Than DraftKings For NFL Win Totals?
Not automatically. At a coin-flip price, Kalshi's taker fee is at its maximum and a book's reduced-juice win total is already thin, so taking the market price on the exchange costs about the same as betting the book. Kalshi's real advantages are structural: every win threshold trades as its own market, you can post a resting order instead of paying the ask, and you can sell out of the position before the season ends.
Are Kalshi NFL Win Totals The Same Bet As A Sportsbook Over/Under?
The outcome is the same but the structure is not. A sportsbook posts one main number per team and prices over and under around it, while Kalshi lists a ladder of yes-or-no contracts, such as 7+ wins or 10+ wins, and each rung trades at its own price. Buying "10+ wins" on Kalshi is the same claim as over 9.5 at a book, and both settle on the 17-game regular season.
Why Do DraftKings And FanDuel Post Different NFL Win Totals For The Same Team?
Each book sets and moves its own number based on its own risk and its own customers' bets, and win totals are low-limit markets that drift apart easily. In mid-August 2026, 10 of 32 teams were posted a full game apart between the two books, which is exactly why shopping the posted number matters more in this market than in almost any other.
Can You Get Out Of An NFL Win Total Before The Season Ends?
On Kalshi, yes. Contracts trade continuously, so you can sell your position at the current price whenever a buyer is there, months before settlement. A sportsbook futures ticket generally locks your money until the season ends, with cash-out offered only at the book's discretion and at the book's price.
The Bottom Line
Run the board one more time from the top. Three venues price the same 272 available wins; the exchange's 32 ladders sum to 273.3, so the market as a whole is honest, and at the main numbers the prices mostly agree to the cent. What does not agree is the numbers themselves: 10 teams posted a full game apart, with Cleveland's 5.5-vs-6.5 the loudest, and Kalshi's ladder casting a real-money vote on every one of those arguments. The 2026 win total edge is not that one platform is secretly cheap. It is that in August, nearly a third of the league has two main numbers at once, and the bettor who sees all three boards gets to choose the wrong one to bet against.
