Who is favored to win the 2027 NBA championship? Two teams, and the market cannot pick between them. The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder each cost 22¢ on Kalshi, a longer price than the +270 sportsbooks post on both. They opened a cent apart in June, swapped the lead twice over the summer, never got more than four cents apart, and are level again now.
They earned the tie on the floor. The Spurs beat the Thunder in a seventh game in Oklahoma City in May, then lost the Finals to the Knicks in five. Now they open the season against each other in San Antonio on October 20.
Everything below them is a different conversation. The Sixers, at 10¢, are the only team whose price rose toward the top two over the summer, and the defending champion sits behind them.
Every Team's Price
What it costs to buy each team on Kalshi as of Tuesday morning, September 22, next to where it started in June and what DraftKings posts now. Every team not listed costs two cents or less.
| Team | Conference | Kalshi, Sept 22 | Kalshi in June | DraftKings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs | West | 22¢ | 27¢ | +270 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | West | 22¢ | 28¢ | +270 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | East | 10¢ | 4¢ | +900 |
| New York Knicks | East | 9¢ | 15¢ | +900 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | West | 6¢ | 6¢ | +2500 |
| Miami Heat | East | 5¢ | 3¢ | +3000 |
| Boston Celtics | East | 5¢ | 12¢ | +1300 |
| Denver Nuggets | West | 3¢ | 6¢ | +2500 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | West | 3¢ | 3¢ | +3500 |
| Toronto Raptors | East | 3¢ | 1¢ | +2500 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | East | 3¢ | 3¢ | +2200 |
The two favorites have drifted down together since June while the sportsbooks barely moved them. Bettors on Kalshi have spent the summer buying the teams below them, and one of those teams drew more trading than the next three combined.
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Spurs or Thunder
The Spurs have the last word from May. Down to a seventh game on the road against a 64-win team that had gone through the first two rounds without a loss, they won 111-103, with Victor Wembanyama scoring 22 and Julian Champagnie 20. Two weeks later Mitch Johnson watched the Knicks close out his team and said: "We weren't ready to win an NBA championship. The better team won." The board has decided the Spurs are ready now, and has the team that beat them priced at less than half their number.
The summer went San Antonio's way. Wembanyama signed a five-year, $252 million extension and took the smaller of the two maximums he could have asked for, which leaves room for Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper when their turns come. The front office signed Tobias Harris and kept Harrison Barnes. Sean Sweeney left the bench to coach Orlando, and Billy Donovan replaced him. The one thing to watch is De'Aaron Fox, who hurt his ankle in the second round and shot poorly the rest of the way. Nothing since says the ankle is still a problem.
Oklahoma City's summer was about money. Extensions for Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren kicked in, so the Thunder sent Luguentz Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe out for second-round picks to stay under the second apron, the payroll line above the tax where the league takes away a team's trade and signing tools. They kept the core, brought Isaiah Hartenstein back for three years, and traded up for the 16th pick. Williams is the question: wrist surgery and then a hamstring held him to 33 regular-season games last year, and he spent the summer on the hamstring.
The case for the Thunder is that they won two more games than anyone in the regular season, went eight for eight in the first two rounds, and lost the series by one game. The case for the Spurs is that they won it, kept everyone who mattered, and added a starter, while the Thunder lost three rotation players to the apron. The price says both cases are equally good.
The Sixers at 10¢
Philadelphia opened this market at 4¢, a team that had just been swept by the Knicks in the second round. By August it was 12¢. Two moves did that.
On July 1 the Sixers traded Paul George, two first-round picks and two seconds to Boston for Jaylen Brown. Three weeks later LeBron James, who had told the Lakers on June 30 he was leaving, chose Philadelphia on a two-year, $8 million deal and called it his last decision. He turns 42 in December. DraftKings cut the Sixers from +5500 to +2000 on the Brown trade and to +900 on James, and one sportsbook said almost every title bet it took in the first hour after the news was on Philadelphia.
Kalshi bettors did the same thing and have not stopped. Nearly eight million contracts have traded on the Sixers, more than the Spurs, Thunder and Knicks put together, and more than five million of those contracts are still open. Whatever the price does, no team on this board has more contracts still open on it.
The reason it is 10¢ and not higher is Joel Embiid. He has played in 39% of his team's games over the last three seasons and missed four of 11 playoff games last spring. He says the knee is figured out. The lineup around him, Brown, James, Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe, has never shared a ball, and three of them are used to having it most of the time.
The Champion at 9¢
The Knicks got worse in the market without anything going wrong. They opened at 15¢ the morning after Jalen Brunson scored 45 in the clincher for the franchise's first title since 1973, and drifted to 9¢ as other teams made news.
They kept all five starters and re-signed the bench below market. The one loss was Mitchell Robinson, who took a three-year deal in Boston; Andre Drummond fills the spot on a one-year contract. Karl-Anthony Towns did not get an extension this summer. ESPN's power index has them third in the league going in, with health as the main concern it names.
Repeating is harder than the roster suggests. Since 2001, a champion has come back and won again four times, and not since the 2018 Warriors. The price for that at 9¢ is a long way from the two teams that met in the West finals, and a cent behind a Sixers team the Knicks swept in May.
Boston, Miami and the East Behind Them
Boston opened this market at 12¢ and sits at 5¢. The Brown trade brought back Paul George and picks, Robinson and Mike Conley signed, and Jayson Tatum is set for his first full season since tearing his Achilles in 2025. The team that lost a first-round series to the seventh seed from three games up is being asked to prove the new one is better.
Miami got Giannis Antetokounmpo, sending Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., the No. 13 pick and two future firsts to Milwaukee, then added Klay Thompson. The Heat's Kalshi price tells the summer's story in one line: 3¢ before the trade, 8¢ the night of it, 10¢ in late July while James was deciding, 3¢ two days after he chose Philadelphia, and 5¢ now. This is a team that missed the playoffs last spring, losing the play-in to Charlotte in overtime, priced level with Boston.
Toronto is the freshest move. The Kawhi Leonard trade was agreed on June 30, held for 11 weeks while the league investigated the Clippers, and finished on September 16. Leonard averaged a career-high 27.9 points last season and played 65 games. Kalshi bettors pushed the Raptors to 6¢ the night the deal was reported and have let them settle back to 3¢.
Cleveland, at 3¢, paid to keep what took it to the conference finals: Donovan Mitchell signed a four-year, $273 million extension and James Harden came back on a three-year deal. Detroit won 60 games as the top seed and lost a home Game 7 to the Cavaliers by 31. It costs 2¢ now, down from 4¢ in June, with Jalen Duren, its All-NBA center, unsigned and reportedly turning down five years and $200 million. He has until October 1 to take the one-year qualifying offer instead.
The West Behind the Favorites
Minnesota, at 6¢, is the one team below the top four that costs clearly more now than in August, when it dipped to 2¢. The Wolves rebuilt the roster around Anthony Edwards in one four-team trade, sending Julius Randle and Naz Reid out and bringing LaMelo Ball in, then re-signed Ayo Dosunmu for five years and signed Jonathan Kuminga to start at power forward. Donte DiVincenzo tore his Achilles in April and is not expected back for most of the season.
Denver is 3¢, half its June price. Nikola Jokic has an extension on the table and has not signed it; the Nuggets traded Watson, signed DeMar DeRozan for the minimum, and lost in the first round to Minnesota with Jamal Murray out. The Lakers are 3¢ with James gone and Luka Doncic back from the hamstring that kept him out of last year's playoffs entirely. They added Walker Kessler in a sign-and-trade and re-signed Austin Reaves.
How Often the Favorite Wins
Since the 2000-01 season the team that opened as the favorite has won the title 11 times in 26 years. Two of those were shared favorites, as this year's are. A sole favorite has not won since the 2018 Warriors, and over the last ten seasons the favorite has won three times.
Last year is the fresh example. The Thunder opened at +240 and lost in the conference finals. The Knicks won at +900, the same price they carry now. The longest shot to win in that span was the 2015 Warriors at +2800, which is about where the books have Detroit, Toronto and Minnesota today.
What to Watch
- September 29. Training camps open. Duren's decision comes two days later.
- October 20. Opening night: Celtics at Pistons, 76ers at Knicks, then Thunder at Spurs at 9:30 ET.
- December 25. Knicks and Spurs meet at noon in the first Finals rematch of the season.
- February 11. The trade deadline. Detroit and Denver have the most unsettled contracts on this board.
- June 2027. The market pays out when a champion is declared.
Nothing here is financial advice.
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