The Quick Answer
Kalshi's "TOUR Championship: Round 1 Scores" board (event ticker KXPGAROUNDSCORE-TOC26R1) hands every one of the 30 players at East Lake a personal stroke line for Thursday and asks one question per man: under or not? The market built three tiers, Scottie Scheffler alone at under 66.5, sixteen players at under 67.5, thirteen at under 68.5, and it goes into tee day, Thursday, August 27, as a 241,733-contract book, 198,832 of those in the last 24 hours. The lines are the market's own Round 1 forecast, and the forecast has a blind spot you can check against four years of scorecards: Collin Morikawa has beaten 67.5 in four straight East Lake Round 1s (64, 66, 61, 66) and Viktor Hovland has beaten it in none of four (68, 69, 68, 71), yet both contracts are quoted at 46/47 cents. Russell Henley, under 67.5 in all three of his visits, costs a cent less. The most confident under on the entire board belongs to a Tour Championship debutant, Ryan Gerard at 58/59 cents to break 68.5, and the storm chance sits at 49 percent, building in the afternoon just as the last groups go out. The full 30-line board, every player's East Lake history against his exact line, the fee math this near-50-cent board carries that the leader board does not, and the weather read are all below.
Free: The Weekly PM Market Brief — the 8-model panel's graded record, the week's biggest market-vs-model gaps, and what's spiking next. One email, Sundays.
The Market At A Glance
| Where | Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (18+; availability varies by state, as of August 2026) |
| The Event | "TOUR Championship: Round 1 Scores" (Kalshi event KXPGAROUNDSCORE-TOC26R1), one yes/no contract per player, 30 contracts in all |
| The Contract | Each market resolves Yes if that player's Round 1 score at the 2026 Tour Championship is under his stroke line: 66.5 for Scheffler, 67.5 for sixteen players, 68.5 for the other thirteen |
| The Companion Boards | "TOUR Championship End of Round 1 Leader" (KXPGAR1LEAD-TOC26, 2.27 million contracts traded) and the "2026 TOUR Championship" winner board (KXPGATOUR-TOC26, 17.5 million) |
| The Tournament | August 27 to 30, 2026, East Lake Golf Club (par 70, 7,440 yards), Atlanta, Georgia. The FedEx Cup finale in PGA Tour golf: 30 players, no cut, everyone starts at even par |
| Round 1 | Today, Thursday, August 27. Fifteen twosomes off the first tee between 11:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m. ET, one wave, Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick last at 2:00 |
| Volume | 241,733 contracts traded lifetime, 198,832 of them in the last 24 hours |
| Prices Below As Of | Shortly before 7:00 a.m. ET on Thursday, August 27, 2026, about four hours before the first tee. Prices move with every trade; check Kalshi for the live quote before you act |
New to Kalshi's yes/no contracts? Start here → how Kalshi's event markets work, and check where Kalshi is legal before you trade. Prices here are live market quotes, and any probabilities read from them are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
Three Tiers, Thirty Lines: The Market's Own Round 1 Forecast
A first round leader contract asks who beats everyone; this board asks something quieter and much more knowable, whether each man beats a number. That makes it the market's honest scoring forecast for East Lake, published one line at a time. Read the tiers as a ranking: the market handed Scheffler the only 66.5, its way of saying no other player in the field deserves to be lined that low, then split the remaining 29 into a 67.5 class of contenders and a 68.5 class of everyone else. Price and line together give you the full read. A 46-cent under 67.5 says the market's median forecast for that player sits right around 68; Gerard's 58 cents against 68.5 says the market expects a sub-69 round from him more often than not. The thesis of this page is that the market drew those lines from reputation and current form, and East Lake keeps four years of receipts that disagree with several of them. That disagreement, name by name, is where this board gets interesting, and we will get to the two names it disagrees about hardest in a moment.
Here is the full board as of Thursday morning, grouped by tier, Yes bid and ask in cents, with lifetime contracts traded:
| Golfer | Line | Yes Bid / Ask | Contracts Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | Under 66.5 | 50¢ / 51¢ | 4,154 |
| Rory McIlroy | Under 67.5 | 53¢ / 55¢ | 9,670 |
| Xander Schauffele | Under 67.5 | 52¢ / 53¢ | 14,669 |
| Patrick Cantlay | Under 67.5 | 51¢ / 52¢ | 22,061 |
| Sam Burns | Under 67.5 | 49¢ / 50¢ | 5,842 |
| Ludvig Aberg | Under 67.5 | 48¢ / 49¢ | 14,442 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | Under 67.5 | 47¢ / 48¢ | 6,452 |
| Collin Morikawa | Under 67.5 | 46¢ / 47¢ | 17,911 |
| Viktor Hovland | Under 67.5 | 46¢ / 47¢ | 18,069 |
| Wyndham Clark | Under 67.5 | 46¢ / 47¢ | 5,139 |
| Russell Henley | Under 67.5 | 45¢ / 46¢ | 6,481 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | Under 67.5 | 45¢ / 46¢ | 7,321 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | Under 67.5 | 45¢ / 46¢ | 4,864 |
| Si Woo Kim | Under 67.5 | 45¢ / 46¢ | 4,149 |
| Chris Gotterup | Under 67.5 | 45¢ / 46¢ | 2,592 |
| Cameron Young | Under 67.5 | 44¢ / 45¢ | 6,323 |
| Tom Kim | Under 67.5 | 42¢ / 43¢ | 3,864 |
| Ryan Gerard | Under 68.5 | 58¢ / 59¢ | 11,990 |
| J.J. Spaun | Under 68.5 | 56¢ / 57¢ | 9,166 |
| Robert MacIntyre | Under 68.5 | 55¢ / 56¢ | 18,168 |
| Adam Scott | Under 68.5 | 54¢ / 55¢ | 4,490 |
| Justin Rose | Under 68.5 | 54¢ / 55¢ | 6,315 |
| Gary Woodland | Under 68.5 | 53¢ / 54¢ | 9,655 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | Under 68.5 | 53¢ / 54¢ | 11,083 |
| Alex Smalley | Under 68.5 | 52¢ / 53¢ | 1,657 |
| Min Woo Lee | Under 68.5 | 51¢ / 52¢ | 2,067 |
| Akshay Bhatia | Under 68.5 | 49¢ / 50¢ | 4,084 |
| Kristoffer Reitan | Under 68.5 | 48¢ / 49¢ | 3,434 |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | Under 68.5 | 46¢ / 47¢ | 2,488 |
| Ryan Fox | Under 68.5 | 43¢ / 45¢ | 3,117 |
All 30 markets are live on Kalshi; quotes are one snapshot from Thursday morning and move with every trade.
The row worth narrating before any history arrives is Cantlay's, because it is the most traded market on the whole board at 22,061 contracts, ahead of MacIntyre's 18,168 and Hovland's 18,069, and the money has settled his under 67.5 at 51/52 cents, third-highest at the tier. Nothing about Cantlay's East Lake record earned that; as the next section shows, he has beaten 67.5 exactly once in four visits. The volume leaders on this board are a map of where the market's attention went, not where its evidence is, and that distinction is the whole reason to put the lines next to the scorecards. Notice also how tightly this book is quoted: 28 of the 30 markets are a single cent wide, with only McIlroy (53/55) and Fox (43/45) at two. For a board that did 82 percent of its lifetime volume in the last day, that is a liquid, confident market, which makes the spots where its confidence contradicts the course record more interesting, not less.
Every Line Against Four Years Of East Lake Thursdays
The market wrote its forecast; East Lake keeps its own. Here is every player in the field with a Round 1 at East Lake since 2022, his actual opening scores, and how many of those rounds would have beaten the line Kalshi handed him today. The 2024 and 2025 rounds came on the restored course, and a scoring note matters here: 2022 through 2024 used starting strokes on the leaderboard, but the number below is each man's actual Round 1 score, strokes taken on the course, which is exactly what this market settles on.
| Golfer (Line, Ask) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | Under Today's Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collin Morikawa (67.5, 47¢) | 64 | 66 | 61 | 66 | 4-for-4 |
| Russell Henley (67.5, 46¢) | 61 | 67 | 65 | – | 3-for-3 |
| Scottie Scheffler (66.5, 51¢) | 63 | 65 | 71 | 65 | 3-for-4 |
| Sam Burns (67.5, 50¢) | 67 | 67 | 66 | 69 | 3-for-4 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick (67.5, 46¢) | – | – | 67 | 64 | 2-for-2 |
| Cameron Young (67.5, 45¢) | 67 | – | – | 67 | 2-for-2 |
| Adam Scott (68.5, 55¢) | – | 66 | – | 68 | 2-for-2 |
| Xander Schauffele (67.5, 53¢) | – | 70 | 67 | 66 | 2-for-3 |
| Rory McIlroy (67.5, 55¢) | 66 | 69 | 70 | 67 | 2-for-4 |
| J.J. Spaun (68.5, 57¢) | 68 | – | – | – | 1-for-1 |
| Jacob Bridgeman (68.5, 54¢) | 67 | – | – | – | 1-for-1 |
| Tom Kim (67.5, 43¢) | – | – | 67 | – | 1-for-1 |
| Robert MacIntyre (68.5, 56¢) | 64 | 69 | – | – | 1-for-2 |
| Akshay Bhatia (68.5, 50¢) | 66 | 70 | – | – | 1-for-2 |
| Ludvig Aberg (67.5, 49¢) | 66 | 71 | – | – | 1-for-2 |
| Wyndham Clark (67.5, 47¢) | – | 67 | 68 | – | 1-for-2 |
| Tommy Fleetwood (67.5, 48¢) | 64 | 70 | 71 | – | 1-for-3 |
| Patrick Cantlay (67.5, 52¢) | 64 | 69 | 69 | 70 | 1-for-4 |
| Justin Rose (68.5, 55¢) | 69 | – | – | – | 0-for-1 |
| Si Woo Kim (67.5, 46¢) | – | – | 70 | – | 0-for-1 |
| Chris Gotterup (67.5, 46¢) | 70 | – | – | – | 0-for-1 |
| Hideki Matsuyama (67.5, 46¢) | 69 | 70 | – | 70 | 0-for-3 |
| Viktor Hovland (67.5, 47¢) | 68 | 69 | 68 | 71 | 0-for-4 |
"–" means the player was not in that year's field. Gary Woodland has not played East Lake since 2019; Ryan Gerard, Kristoffer Reitan, Alex Fitzpatrick, Min Woo Lee, Alex Smalley and Ryan Fox are making their Tour Championship debuts, so their rows do not exist. Source: ESPN linescores.
Start where the table shouts. Morikawa and Hovland are quoted at the exact same 46/47 cents to beat the exact same 67.5, and they arrive with opposite records: Morikawa has never opened an East Lake Tour Championship worse than 66 in four tries, including a 61 in 2023, and Hovland has never opened one better than 68 in four. Two players, eight combined East Lake Thursdays under the line for one of them and eight over-or-never-under for the other, one price. None of this is laziness; it is consistency with the board's sources. Hovland's quote is a current-form price and Morikawa's is a current-form price, and the board simply declines to pay for course history. That is the choice you are being offered all over this board: the market prices the player as he is ranked today, and East Lake's scorecards price the player as this course has actually treated him. Morikawa's case does not even need the history to stand alone, since he leads the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach this season and East Lake's par-70 setup runs its par 3s at 205 yards or longer, an iron-player's examination by any reading. A top-of-the-Tour approach season, four straight sub-67 openers on this exact course, and a coin-flip price is the single most outlier row this board has.
Henley is the same argument one cent cheaper. His three East Lake openers, a 61 that led the 2025 tournament by two, a 67, a 65, have all beaten 67.5, and his under costs 45/46, below Cantlay (1-for-4 at 52), below Schauffele (2-for-3 at 53), below McIlroy. McIlroy's row is the mirror image of Morikawa's and the market's clearest reputation price: 2-for-4 against the line, never better than 66 here, and yet his 55-cent ask is the highest at the 67.5 tier, on the tier's widest quote, which reads like a market that wants to believe and cannot quite fill its own order. And spare a look at Matsuyama, 0-for-3 at East Lake with nothing under 69, priced at 45/46 alongside Henley; across three East Lake openers apiece, the table puts sixteen accumulated scoring strokes between those two rows, and the market puts nothing.
Two honest caveats belong here, because the table can seduce. First, these are three and four Thursdays per man, small samples on a course that was restored in 2024, and a stroke line is a knife's edge; Burns at 3-for-4 has openers of 67, 67, 66, which beat 67.5 by fractions, not by Henley margins. Second, the market's refusal to pay for course history is partly the right refusal, since fields, swings and setups change, and last year's 61 does not carry over. What the market cannot claim is that the history is priced in. When 0-for-4 and 4-for-4 cost the same cent, it is not.
The Debutant Problem: Gerard At 59 Cents Is The Board's Boldest Line
Follow the history logic one step further and it runs into the row where history does not exist, which is the board's most confident price. Ryan Gerard's under 68.5 is quoted 58/59, the highest Yes price on all 30 markets, for a player who has never hit a competitive shot at East Lake; all 11,990 of his contracts traded in the last 24 hours. Spaun (56/57, one East Lake start, a 68) and MacIntyre (55/56) hold the next two asks, so the market's three boldest unders belong to one debutant, one single-visit player, and a man who missed 68.5 in one of his two tries. This is the pure form-versus-course trade: with no scorecards to consult, the market has nothing but 2026 form to price, and it is pricing it aggressively. The six debutants plus Woodland, whose last East Lake round predates the restoration, make up nearly a quarter of the board, and every one of their prices is an act of extrapolation. That is not a reason to fade them; it is a reason to know which kind of price you are buying. A 59-cent under with no course record is a bet on the market's form model, and a 47-cent under on a 4-for-4 course record is a bet against it, and this board lets you make either one.
Weather, One Wave, And What A 49 Percent Storm Chance Does To Unders
The reason tee-day form pricing might beat the history this week hangs in the sky. The National Weather Service forecast for Atlanta, pulled Thursday morning, gives tee day a 49 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, a high near 90 falling to around 86 through the afternoon, on a southeast breeze of 5 mph or less, with only a slight chance of rain before 11:00 a.m. and the real storm risk from midday on. Two consequences, pulling in opposite directions. Softer, receptive greens on a 7,440-yard par 70 are how low rounds happen, and the historical proof sits in the table above, where the low East Lake openers of the last four years ran 61, 65, 61 and 64; if the showers arrive early and light, the whole board's unders get easier. But the back-loaded hourly shape threatens the finish instead of the scoring. All 30 players go off the first tee in one wave between 11:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m. ET, and the last groups out, Clark and Young at 1:48, Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick at 2:00, would be mid-round as the afternoon build-up peaks. As Ben Rasa puts it on our Putting for Dough show, the draw, which wave gets the better of the weather, is the number one Round 1 edge in golf markets, and this week the one wave means the draw edge is compressed into a finishing question: the 11:00-to-12:54 half of the sheet gets the most golf in before any build-up, and the late marquee groups carry the suspension risk. Each of these contracts settles on a completed Round 1 score, so a suspended round settles when the round finishes, likely Friday morning; check the market's rules page on Kalshi for the exact carry-over language before you trade, because a Thursday buy can become a Friday sweat without a single bad swing. The full tee sheet, twosome by twosome, is on our Tour Championship first round leader page, which is the companion read on this event.
The 50-Cent Problem: Fees Bite Hardest Exactly Here
There is a structural cost on this board that its glamorous sibling barely pays, and it is worth a section because it changes what a fair price is. Kalshi's trading fees scale with the product of price and its complement, which means they are smallest at the extremes and largest in the middle of the price range, and this board lives entirely in the middle: every one of its 30 markets is quoted between 42 and 59 cents. The first round leader board trades in pennies, where the fee is a small absolute number; a Round 1 scores contract at 50 cents sits at the exact point where the per-contract fee peaks. The practical translation: a coin-flip under needs to be meaningfully better than a coin flip to clear its costs, so the edge cases in the history table matter more here than they would at low prices, and a one-cent limit-order improvement, buying Morikawa at 46 instead of lifting 47, is a larger fraction of your expected profit than it looks. The fee schedule is published on Kalshi's site; read it next to what a Kalshi price actually means before sizing anything on this board, and treat the two-cent-wide rows, McIlroy and Fox, as quotes where crossing the spread costs you twice.
What The Leader Board And Winner Board Say Back
The promise from the top of the page was that the lines are a forecast, and forecasts can be audited against the market's own siblings. Scheffler is the cleanest audit: the winner board (KXPGATOUR-TOC26, 17.5 million contracts) prices him at 21/22 cents to win the tournament, the first round leader board asks 10 cents for him to lead after Thursday, and this board says 50/51 to break 66.5. Those three prices are one coherent opinion: clearly the best player in the field over four rounds, a modest favorite to be lowest of 30 on any single Thursday, a coin flip against the hardest line on the board. Gerard is the incoherent one, or at least the most interesting: 59 cents here to break 68.5, a 2.7-cent ask to lead Round 1, 1.6 to win. Kalshi's traders believe completely in a good round from him and not at all in a great one. And Henley's trio, 46 to beat 67.5, a 4-cent ask to lead, 2.7 to win, prices a player expected to open well and fade, which is close to the opposite of what his last twelve months of East Lake scorecards did. Line the exchange's three opinions up against how the sportsbooks price the same tournament on the live golf odds screen, where you can shop the number across every major book, and the full exchange-versus-book method is in Kalshi vs. DraftKings. The winner market itself has its own page, the Tour Championship odds board, and the reason East Lake's winner board doubles as the FedEx Cup market is on our FedEx Cup odds page.
How To Shop This Board Before 11:00 A.M.
- Buy The Record Or Buy The Form, But Know Which One You Bought. The board charges the same for Hovland's 0-for-4 and Morikawa's 4-for-4. If you trust East Lake to keep behaving like East Lake, the course-record rows are Morikawa at 47, Henley at 46, and the fade side is Matsuyama at 46 and Cantlay's crowd-favorite 52. If you trust 2026 form, the market has already built your ticket in the 68.5 tier, Gerard at 59 and Spaun at 57, priced on nothing but this season.
- Work Limit Orders Inside A One-Cent Book. 28 of 30 quotes are a cent wide, so there is little spread to save, but at fee-maximizing mid prices even that cent is real money; post the bid, do not lift the ask, and leave the two-cent rows (McIlroy 53/55, Fox 43/45) to someone else unless your number clears the far side.
- Let The Sky Set Your Timing. The storm risk is back-loaded past midday. If the radar stays quiet through the morning, softer greens argue for unders across the board and the prices will move before the leaders tee off at 2:00; if the afternoon builds, the late groups, Scheffler's included, carry carry-over risk into Friday morning.
- Volume Is Attention, Not Evidence. Cantlay's 22,061 contracts are the most on the board attached to a 1-for-4 course record; Henley's 6,481 are a fraction of that attached to 3-for-3. When a row's volume and its scorecards disagree, the scorecards were here first.
Before the first group goes off at 11:00 this morning, line this board up against our free expert picks for today and the Kalshi golf picks hub for the picks-first read on the week.
For the deeper tools, the +EV screen, no-vig fair pricing and line shopping across the major sportsbooks, OddsShopper Pro starts with a free 7-day trial, and code TOCSCORES20 takes 20% off when you keep it.
In Summary
Kalshi's Tour Championship Round 1 Scores board goes to the first tee as a 241,733-contract book that wrote its forecast in three tiers, Scheffler alone under 66.5 at 50/51, sixteen players against 67.5, thirteen against 68.5, and did 82 percent of its lifetime volume in the final 24 hours. Its blind spot is the one this page opened with and the one worth closing on: the market prices this field on reputation and 2026 form, and it charges the identical 46/47 cents for Morikawa, who has beaten his line in four straight East Lake visits and leads the Tour in approach play, and Hovland, who has never beaten it in four tries. Henley's 3-for-3 costs a cent less than either. Where no history exists the market is boldest of all, a 59-cent under on the debutant Gerard, and the 49 percent storm chance building through the afternoon can either soften the course into all these unders or push the last groups into a Friday-morning finish. Shop it like the mid-priced board it is, where fees peak and a cent of limit-order discipline matters, decide whether you are paying for the scorecards or the form model, and remember what the volume column keeps trying to make you forget: attention is not evidence, and at East Lake the scorecards were here first.
- Tour Championship First Round Leader Kalshi Odds: 1.1M Contracts Overnight
- Kalshi Tour Championship Top 10 Odds: 11 Cashed Last Year
- Tour Championship Odds: The 10-Shot Head Start Scheffler Lost
- Big Ten Championship Odds 2026: All 18 Teams, Scored
- SEC Championship Odds 2026: Georgia, Texas And The 16-Team Kalshi Board
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Kalshi Tour Championship Round 1 Scores market?
It is a board of 30 yes/no contracts, one per player in the 2026 Tour Championship field, under the event ticker KXPGAROUNDSCORE-TOC26R1. Each contract asks whether that player will shoot under a personalized stroke line in Thursday's Round 1 at East Lake: Scottie Scheffler is the only player lined at 66.5, sixteen players sit at 67.5, and thirteen sit at 68.5. Yes pays $1 if the player beats his line.
Who has the hardest and easiest stroke lines on the board? Scottie Scheffler carries the only 66.5 line, the hardest number on the board, and the market still quotes him at 50/51 cents to beat it. The most confident under anywhere on the board belongs to Ryan Gerard, quoted 58/59 cents to break 68.5 in his Tour Championship debut.
How do the stroke lines compare with actual East Lake Round 1 scores? Since 2022, Collin Morikawa has opened 64, 66, 61 and 66, under his 67.5 line all four times, and Russell Henley has opened 61, 67 and 65, under it in all three visits. Viktor Hovland has opened 68, 69, 68 and 71, over 67.5 all four times, yet his contract trades at the same 46/47 cents as Morikawa's.
What happens if Round 1 is suspended for weather? The tee-day forecast carries a 49 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mostly after 11:00 a.m. ET, so a delay is a live possibility for the later groups. Each contract settles on the player's completed Round 1 score, so a round that carries over to Friday settles when the round is finished; check the market's rules page on Kalshi before trading for the exact settlement language.
