The Quick Answer
The Tour Championship has been played and every contract on this board has settled, so what follows is a snapshot of what Kalshi priced on tee-day morning, Thursday, August 27, before the first group went off at East Lake. The board gave every player a personal stroke line and asked one question per man: under or not. It charged the same 46/47 cents for Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland to beat 67.5. Morikawa had gone under that number in four straight East Lake openers. Hovland had never beaten it here. That was the price worth arguing with, and the argument, the full board, and what the market's sibling boards said about it are below.
Stay ahead of the markets.
Daily insights and expert picks on Kalshi, Polymarket, and what's moving markets.
Free forever. Unsubscribe anytime.
The Market At A Glance
| Where | Kalshi |
| The Event | "TOUR Championship: Round 1 Scores" (Kalshi event KXPGAROUNDSCORE-TOC26R1), one yes/no contract per player, 30 contracts in all |
| The Contract | Each market resolved Yes if that player's Round 1 score at the 2026 Tour Championship was under his stroke line: 66.5 for Scheffler, 67.5 for 16 players, 68.5 for the other 13 |
| The Tournament | August 27 to 30, 2026, East Lake Golf Club (par 70, 7,440 yards), Atlanta, Georgia. The FedEx Cup finale: 30 players, no cut, everyone started at even par |
| Round 1 | Thursday, August 27. Fifteen twosomes off the first tee between 11:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m. ET, one wave, Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick last at 2:00 |
| Volume | 241,733 contracts traded lifetime as of that morning, 198,832 of them in the prior 24 hours |
| Prices Below As Of | Shortly before 7:00 a.m. ET on Thursday, August 27, 2026, about four hours before the first tee. The market has since settled; these quotes are a historical snapshot |
New to Kalshi's yes/no contracts? Start here → how Kalshi's event markets work, and check where Kalshi is legal before you trade.
What Did The Market Price For Every Player?
Read the tiers as a ranking. The market handed Scottie Scheffler the only 66.5 and split the other 29 into a class of contenders at 67.5 and everyone else at 68.5. Next to each price below sits every Round 1 score the player had posted at East Lake since 2022, and how many of those rounds would have beaten the line he was handed on Thursday.
| Golfer | Line | Yes Bid / Ask | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | Under The Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | Under 66.5 | 50¢ / 51¢ | 63 | 65 | 71 | 65 | 3-for-4 |
| Rory McIlroy | Under 67.5 | 53¢ / 55¢ | 66 | 69 | 70 | 67 | 2-for-4 |
| Xander Schauffele | Under 67.5 | 52¢ / 53¢ | – | 70 | 67 | 66 | 2-for-3 |
| Patrick Cantlay | Under 67.5 | 51¢ / 52¢ | 64 | 69 | 69 | 70 | 1-for-4 |
| Sam Burns | Under 67.5 | 49¢ / 50¢ | 67 | 67 | 66 | 69 | 3-for-4 |
| Ludvig Aberg | Under 67.5 | 48¢ / 49¢ | 66 | 71 | – | – | 1-for-2 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | Under 67.5 | 47¢ / 48¢ | 64 | 70 | 71 | – | 1-for-3 |
| Collin Morikawa | Under 67.5 | 46¢ / 47¢ | 64 | 66 | 61 | 66 | 4-for-4 |
| Viktor Hovland | Under 67.5 | 46¢ / 47¢ | 68 | 69 | 68 | 71 | 0-for-4 |
| Wyndham Clark | Under 67.5 | 46¢ / 47¢ | – | 67 | 68 | – | 1-for-2 |
| Russell Henley | Under 67.5 | 45¢ / 46¢ | 61 | 67 | 65 | – | 3-for-3 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | Under 67.5 | 45¢ / 46¢ | 69 | 70 | – | 70 | 0-for-3 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | Under 67.5 | 45¢ / 46¢ | – | – | 67 | 64 | 2-for-2 |
| Si Woo Kim | Under 67.5 | 45¢ / 46¢ | – | – | 70 | – | 0-for-1 |
| Chris Gotterup | Under 67.5 | 45¢ / 46¢ | 70 | – | – | – | 0-for-1 |
| Cameron Young | Under 67.5 | 44¢ / 45¢ | 67 | – | – | 67 | 2-for-2 |
| Tom Kim | Under 67.5 | 42¢ / 43¢ | – | – | 67 | – | 1-for-1 |
| Ryan Gerard | Under 68.5 | 58¢ / 59¢ | – | – | – | – | Debut |
| J.J. Spaun | Under 68.5 | 56¢ / 57¢ | 68 | – | – | – | 1-for-1 |
| Robert MacIntyre | Under 68.5 | 55¢ / 56¢ | 64 | 69 | – | – | 1-for-2 |
| Adam Scott | Under 68.5 | 54¢ / 55¢ | – | 66 | – | 68 | 2-for-2 |
| Justin Rose | Under 68.5 | 54¢ / 55¢ | 69 | – | – | – | 0-for-1 |
| Gary Woodland | Under 68.5 | 53¢ / 54¢ | – | – | – | – | Last played 2019 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | Under 68.5 | 53¢ / 54¢ | 67 | – | – | – | 1-for-1 |
| Alex Smalley | Under 68.5 | 52¢ / 53¢ | – | – | – | – | Debut |
| Min Woo Lee | Under 68.5 | 51¢ / 52¢ | – | – | – | – | Debut |
| Akshay Bhatia | Under 68.5 | 49¢ / 50¢ | 66 | 70 | – | – | 1-for-2 |
| Kristoffer Reitan | Under 68.5 | 48¢ / 49¢ | – | – | – | – | Debut |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | Under 68.5 | 46¢ / 47¢ | – | – | – | – | Debut |
| Ryan Fox | Under 68.5 | 43¢ / 45¢ | – | – | – | – | Debut |
Quotes are one snapshot from Thursday morning, August 27. Scores are strokes taken on the course, which is what the market settled on, not the starting-strokes leaderboard used from 2022 through 2024. The 2024 and 2025 rounds came on the restored course. "–" means the player was not in that year's field. Source: ESPN linescores.
Where Did The Price And The Scorecards Disagree?
Start where the table shouts. Morikawa and Hovland were quoted at the same 46/47 cents to beat the same 67.5, and they arrived with opposite records. Morikawa had never opened an East Lake Tour Championship worse than 66. Hovland had never opened one better than 68.
The market was not being lazy. Both quotes were current-form prices, and the board simply declined to pay for course history. Morikawa's case did not need the history to stand: he led the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach this season, and East Lake's par-70 setup runs its par 3s at 205 yards or longer, an iron player's examination. A top-of-the-Tour approach season, four straight sub-67 openers on this exact course, and a coin-flip price made his the most outlier row on the board.
Henley was the same argument one cent cheaper. All three of his East Lake openers had beaten 67.5, one of them a 61 that led the field after Thursday last year, and his under cost less than Cantlay's, Schauffele's or McIlroy's.
McIlroy's row was the market's clearest reputation price: under his line in two of four visits, never better than 66 here, and still the highest ask at his tier. Matsuyama, with nothing under 69 in three visits, was priced alongside Henley.
Two caveats. These were three and four Thursdays per man on a course restored in 2024, and a stroke line is a knife's edge: Sam Burns's 3-for-4 rests on openers that cleared his line by little. The market's refusal to pay for course history is also partly right, since fields, swings and setups change. What it could not claim was that the history had been priced in.
Why Was The Board's Boldest Line On A Debutant?
Follow the history logic one step further and it ran into the row with no history at all. Ryan Gerard's under 68.5 was quoted 58/59, the highest Yes price on the board, for a player who had never hit a competitive shot at East Lake. J.J. Spaun, with one East Lake start, and Robert MacIntyre, who had missed his line in half his visits, held the next two asks.
With no scorecards to consult, the market had only 2026 form to price, and it priced it aggressively. A 59-cent under with no course record was a bet on the market's form model. A 47-cent under on a 4-for-4 course record was a bet against it, and the board let you make either one.
What Was The Weather Risk?
The National Weather Service forecast for Atlanta, pulled Thursday morning, gave tee day a 49 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, with the real risk from midday on. Softer greens are how low rounds happen at East Lake, so early, light rain would have made every under easier.
The back-loaded shape threatened the finish instead. The whole field went off in one wave between 11:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m. ET, and the last groups, Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick at 2:00, would have been mid-round as the afternoon build-up peaked. As Ben Rasa puts it on our Putting for Dough show, the draw is the number one Round 1 edge in golf markets, and one wave compressed it into a finishing question. Each contract settled on a completed Round 1 score, so a suspended round would have settled when the round finished. The full tee sheet is on our Tour Championship first round leader page.
What Did The Sibling Boards Say?
Scheffler was the cleanest audit. The winner board priced him at 21/22 cents to win, the first round leader board asked 10 cents for him to lead after Thursday, and this board said 50/51 to break 66.5. Those three prices were one coherent opinion: the best player in the field over four rounds, a modest favorite to be lowest of anyone on a single Thursday, a coin flip against the hardest line.
Gerard was the incoherent one, or at least the most interesting: 59 cents here to break 68.5, a 2.7-cent ask to lead Round 1, 1.6 to win. Kalshi's traders believed completely in a good round from him and not at all in a great one.
What To Take To The Next Round Scores Board
- Know whether you bought the record or the form. This board charged the same for Hovland's 0-for-4 and Morikawa's 4-for-4. The course-record rows were Morikawa and Henley; the form rows were Gerard and Spaun, priced on nothing but the season. Decide which model you trust before you decide the price is wrong.
- Mid-priced boards are where fees peak. Every line here sat between 42 and 59 cents, the range where Kalshi's per-contract fee is largest, so a coin-flip under had to be meaningfully better than a coin flip to pay. Post the bid instead of lifting the ask; a cent matters more here than on a leader board priced in pennies. Read what a Kalshi price actually means before sizing one.
- Volume is attention, not evidence. Cantlay's 22,061 contracts were the most on the board, attached to a 1-for-4 course record, and the money settled his under at 51/52, third-highest at his tier. When a row's volume and its scorecards disagree, the scorecards were here first.
For the deeper tools, the +EV screen, no-vig fair pricing and line shopping across the major sportsbooks, OddsShopper Pro starts with a free 7-day trial, and code TOCSCORES20 takes 20% off when you keep it.
The Bottom Line
The board has settled. This page keeps the morning's prices as they stood; the graded result, whether the scorecards or the form model called Thursday better, belongs to a results refresh. What the snapshot already shows is that a liquid, tightly quoted market charged one price for two opposite East Lake records, and that is the row to check first.
More on this: Tour Championship First Round Leader Kalshi Odds: The Result · Tour Championship Top 10 Finishers Kalshi Odds: Final Round · Tour Championship Odds: Kalshi's Board At The Halfway Mark · Texas Is the Most Overbought Name in College Football · NBA Championship Odds 2027: Spurs or Thunder, and Who Can Catch Them
