Prices fetched from Kalshi at 8:55 a.m. Eastern, Saturday, August 29, 2026, the morning of Round 3. Edited September 5, 2026 · by Jake Hari.
The Quick Answer
Ryan Gerard and Viktor Hovland led the 2026 TOUR Championship at 10 under through 36 holes, and neither was the favorite. Kalshi's winner market still had Scottie Scheffler on top from two shots back, at 22/23 cents.
Hovland traded at 15/16 and Gerard at 10/11, both repriced by multiples on Friday, the day the market threw out most of its pre-tournament board. The full winner board, each price against its Wednesday number, and the top 5, top 10 and top 20 tiers are below.
The tournament has since finished and every contract on this page has settled. The prices here are the Saturday-morning snapshot before Round 3, kept with their stamps as the halfway record of what two rounds of golf did to the market's priors.
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New to contracts priced in cents? Our Kalshi sports guide covers it in a page. Withdrawals settle as No, not refunded: J.J. Spaun left after five holes on Thursday with a shoulder injury, and his winner contract paid zero.
What Friday's Two 62s Did To The Board
The two 62s tell the week. Min Woo Lee shot the first on Thursday, won the first round leader market with it, and saw his winner price reach 10 cents by Friday morning. Then he shot 73, the second-worst round of the day, and the same contract fell to 0.3/0.6.
Cameron Young ran the film in reverse. An opening 70 had left him at half a cent. His Friday 62 was the best round of the day by a distance, and it took him to 7.8/7.9 by Saturday morning.
The fallers were the Wednesday board's whole top half. Rory McIlroy, the second price on the board before the tournament, went 68-69 and traded at 0.8/0.9. Xander Schauffele, Wyndham Clark and Patrick Cantlay, each among the board's highest prices on Wednesday, were all under a cent. Robert MacIntyre posted Friday's highest score, a 76, and his ask was the minimum tick.
The risers were the leaderboard. Hovland's 64-66 multiplied his Wednesday price nearly five times. Gerard's back-to-back 65s, the steadiest pair in the field, took him from a cent and a half to double digits. Collin Morikawa and Chris Gotterup, a shot behind the leaders, traded just below them.
The Board: All 30, Repriced Against Wednesday
Every contract on the winner market, with each man's 36-hole score and the price this page carried on Wednesday morning, before a shot was hit.
| Player | 36 holes | Kalshi bid/ask | Wednesday price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 8 under (65-67) | 22/23¢ | 21.5¢ |
| Viktor Hovland | 10 under (64-66) | 15/16¢ | 3.25¢ |
| Collin Morikawa | 9 under (64-67) | 11/12¢ | 4.4¢ |
| Chris Gotterup | 9 under (64-67) | 10/11¢ | 3.4¢ |
| Ryan Gerard | 10 under (65-65) | 10/11¢ | 1.55¢ |
| Cameron Young | 8 under (70-62) | 7.8/7.9¢ | 4.15¢ |
| Ludvig Åberg | 7 under (65-68) | 4.6/4.7¢ | 4.55¢ |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 7 under (66-67) | 3.4/3.5¢ | 3.4¢ |
| Sam Burns | 6 under (66-68) | 2.3/2.7¢ | 4.55¢ |
| Justin Rose | 7 under (68-65) | 2.1/2.3¢ | 1.65¢ |
| Adam Scott | 7 under (66-67) | 2/2.1¢ | 1.45¢ |
| Gary Woodland | 6 under (66-68) | 1.2/1.3¢ | 1.4¢ |
| Russell Henley | 5 under (70-65) | 0.9/1¢ | 2.55¢ |
| Rory McIlroy | 3 under (68-69) | 0.8/0.9¢ | 9.25¢ |
| Akshay Bhatia | 6 under (65-69) | 0.6/0.8¢ | 0.75¢ |
| Ryan Fox | 6 under (66-68) | 0.5/0.8¢ | 0.55¢ |
| Wyndham Clark | 4 under (67-69) | 0.6/0.7¢ | 5.25¢ |
| Tom Kim | 5 under (67-68) | 0.6/0.7¢ | 1.75¢ |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 4 under (66-70) | 0.5/0.6¢ | 3.85¢ |
| Min Woo Lee | 5 under (62-73) | 0.3/0.6¢ | 1.25¢ |
| Alex Smalley | 5 under (67-68) | 0.4/0.5¢ | 1.15¢ |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 5 under (68-67) | 0.4/0.5¢ | 0.95¢ |
| Xander Schauffele | 2 under (67-71) | 0.2/0.3¢ | 7.35¢ |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 4 under (68-68) | 0.1/0.2¢ | 0.75¢ |
| Si Woo Kim | 3 under (69-68) | 0.1/0.2¢ | 3.05¢ |
| Patrick Cantlay | 2 under (68-70) | 0.1/0.2¢ | 4.65¢ |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 1 under (69-70) | 0/0.1¢ | 2.85¢ |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 1 under (70-69) | 0/0.1¢ | 1.05¢ |
| Robert MacIntyre | 3 over (67-76) | 0/0.1¢ | 1.65¢ |
| J.J. Spaun | WD | settled No | 1.45¢ |
Read the Gerard row against Wednesday. He was one of six players making a first TOUR Championship start, and the market had priced the debutants together at the bottom of the board. Two 65s later he was tied for the lead and the last man standing from that argument about what a debut is worth.
Five contracts carried a double-digit ask, and between them they took about 70 cents of the dollar. Yet 19 of the 29 men still playing were within five shots of the lead.
Which leaves the question the table cannot answer on its own: why was a man tied for fifth still the most expensive contract on it?
Why Scheffler Stayed On Top From Two Back
Scheffler sat two back of the leaders at the halfway mark. Every other contract was repriced by multiples. His wobbled around the same number all week: 21.5 cents on Wednesday, 25 on Friday morning, 22/23 on Saturday. The market's position, held through a day of record turnover, was that a two-shot deficit for the world No. 1 against this particular pair of leaders was roughly what his pre-tournament edge had been worth.
That was also the market doubling down on a read it made before the tournament, when this page's eight-model panel priced Scheffler at 12% without seeing the market and the exchange sat nearly ten points higher. The panel's discount rested on the illness he disclosed at the BMW; the market shrugged at it. One seat refused to follow the panel down:
I am holding Scheffler at 14 while five forecasters sit at 9-11. Their cut rests on hand, foot and mouth disease — a self-limiting illness he was already recovering from while posting T12. — Claude Opus
He then went 65-67 looking healthy. The rest of the panel's pre-tournament board grades in both directions: it had Schauffele well under the market and was right, it had Clark well over the market and was wrong, and on McIlroy the two agreed almost exactly and were wrong together. That pattern fits the panel's record, since where the blend has sat ten or more points from the price, the market has settled its way just under 70% of the time. Every one of those pre-tournament numbers gets its final grade on the full graded scoreboard.
Top 5, Top 10, Top 20: Where An Opinion On Anyone Else Lived
Kalshi lists three finishing-position boards beside the winner market, and all three settle Yes on ties, so a T5 counts as a top 5. With the winner board's bottom two-thirds priced below a cent, these tiers were the only place the market still paid you to be right about, say, Justin Rose.
| Player | Top 5 | Top 10 | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 68¢ | 86.5¢ | 97.5¢ |
| Viktor Hovland | 60.5¢ | 83¢ | 97.5¢ |
| Ryan Gerard | 54.5¢ | 79¢ | 96¢ |
| Collin Morikawa | 53.5¢ | 79.5¢ | 95.5¢ |
| Chris Gotterup | 51.5¢ | 76.5¢ | 95.5¢ |
| Cameron Young | 43¢ | 69¢ | 92.5¢ |
| Ludvig Åberg | 32.5¢ | 60¢ | 90.5¢ |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 29¢ | 57.5¢ | 90¢ |
| Sam Burns | 23.5¢ | 50.5¢ | 86.5¢ |
| Adam Scott | 21.5¢ | 47.5¢ | 86¢ |
| Justin Rose | 21.5¢ | 47¢ | 84¢ |
| Gary Woodland | 15.5¢ | 37.5¢ | 79¢ |
| Russell Henley | 15.5¢ | 36.5¢ | 80.5¢ |
| Akshay Bhatia | 11¢ | 30¢ | 72.5¢ |
| Rory McIlroy | 11¢ | 30¢ | 72.5¢ |
| Tom Kim | 10.5¢ | 29.5¢ | 73.5¢ |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 9.5¢ | 28¢ | 72¢ |
| Wyndham Clark | 9.5¢ | 27¢ | 71¢ |
| Alex Smalley | 8.5¢ | 25¢ | 68.5¢ |
| Ryan Fox | 8¢ | 23.5¢ | 68.5¢ |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 8¢ | 23.5¢ | 68¢ |
| Min Woo Lee | 7.5¢ | 23.5¢ | 68¢ |
| Xander Schauffele | 5.5¢ | 18.5¢ | 63¢ |
| Si Woo Kim | 4.5¢ | 17.5¢ | 61.5¢ |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 3.5¢ | 13.5¢ | 56.5¢ |
| Patrick Cantlay | 3.5¢ | 12¢ | 52¢ |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 1.5¢ | 5.5¢ | 35.5¢ |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 0.5¢ | 3.5¢ | 25¢ |
| Robert MacIntyre | 0.5¢ | 0.5¢ | 5¢ |
| J.J. Spaun | settled No | settled No | settled No |
Prices are midpoints from the same 8:55 a.m. Eastern snapshot; the tier boards quote in whole cents, which is why every figure lands on a half or a whole.
The tiers moved as hard as the winner board. Cameron Young's top-10 contract went from 19 cents on Friday morning to 68/70. Robert MacIntyre's top-20 went from 68 cents to a 4/6 quote after Friday's highest round, the fastest abandonment on any of the four boards. The Tour Championship top 10 board has its own page tracking that market's full arc.
The tie rule is priced in: the top-10 asks added up to $11.44 against the $10.00 that exactly ten payers would justify. Last year 11 players cashed that question on a tie for tenth.
One row deserves narration: Akshay Bhatia at 30 cents for a top 10. Wednesday's page spent a section on how the market had priced him with the debutants in every column. He answered with 65-69, six under and ahead of more than half the field, and his winner price stayed under a cent only because ten men stood between him and the lead.
Which Board Was Cheapest To Trade
These markets were not equally good products. The winner board's typical gap between the buy and sell price widened to 9.5% of the price after Friday, because when two-thirds of a board collapses toward zero the surviving quotes carry more uncertainty per cent. The top-20 board stayed the cheapest place on the exchange to hold a TOUR Championship opinion at 3.1%, while the top-5 board, where the weekend's win-adjacent money moved, charged the same toll as the winner board. Anyone also holding sportsbook outrights should shop the number across books on the live golf odds screen before crossing a spread that wide.
How The Weekend Was Set Up
Round 3 went off Saturday afternoon with Gerard and Hovland in the final pairing. The whole top of the market was one question: would Scheffler's two-shot deficit shrink? Gerard's price asked something different of a debutant, two more rounds of lead-pack golf without a wobble, and either answer would move his 10/11 by multiples. Below them, the pack at 6 under or better needed only one man to post the weekend's version of Friday's 62 for Saturday night's board to look like another Friday.
The tournament has since finished. The $10 million and the FedExCup went to whoever finished lowest, and every contract above settled off that one name. This page is the permanent home of the TOUR Championship board and gets the same graded treatment the BMW Championship board got after its finish; the Kalshi golf hub tracks every live golf listing.
The Bottom Line
The lesson of the halfway board is about where a golf opinion should live. After 36 holes a winner market marks to the leaderboard and forgets its priors, so a pre-tournament price on anyone outside the lead pack is gone by Saturday. The top-10 and top-20 boards kept paying for those opinions at a fraction of the winner board's spread, tie premium included, and that is the board to read first the next time a tournament reaches its weekend.
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