The Quick Answer
Kalshi's "Tour Championship: Top 10 Finishers" board (event ticker KXPGATOP10-TOC26) lists one yes/no contract for each of the 30 players at East Lake and asks the same four-day question 30 times: does this man finish top 10, including ties? It goes into Thursday's opening round as a 466,142-contract book, 282,042 of those traded in the last 24 hours, and it is the strangest-shaped golf board Kalshi runs this week, because there are no longshots on it. The cheapest contract, Ryan Fox, still costs 13/14 cents; a third of the field cashes by rule, and more than a third cashed in practice last year, when a tie for 10th meant eleven players resolved Yes. Add up the board's asks and you get 1,114 cents, the market's own way of saying it expects about eleven payouts again. The prices themselves argue with last year's leaderboard in both directions: defending champion Tommy Fleetwood, who won this tournament at 18 under twelve months ago, trades as a 45/46-cent coin flip, while Rory McIlroy, who finished tied for 23rd of 30 here last year, carries the second price on the entire board at 58/60. The full 30-man board, the 2025 finish-by-finish receipt, where the 24-hour money is actually going, and why this board is the busiest rung of the closest thing America has to a legal each-way bet are all below.
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The Market At A Glance
| Where | Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (18+; availability varies by state, as of August 2026) |
| The Event | "Tour Championship: Top 10 Finishers" (Kalshi event KXPGATOP10-TOC26), one yes/no contract per player, 30 contracts in all |
| The Contract | Each market resolves Yes and pays $1 if that player finishes the 2026 Tour Championship in the top 10, including ties |
| The Companion Boards | The "2026 Tour Championship" winner board (KXPGATOUR-TOC26), the first round leader board (KXPGAR1LEAD-TOC26, 2.28 million contracts traded), and the Round 1 stroke-lines board (KXPGAROUNDSCORE-TOC26R1, 242,859), plus top-5 (KXPGATOP5-TOC26) and top-20 (KXPGATOP20-TOC26) placement boards |
| The Tournament | August 27 to 30, 2026, East Lake Golf Club (par 70, 7,440 yards), Atlanta, Georgia. The FedEx Cup finale in PGA Tour golf: 30 players, no cut, everyone starts at even par |
| Volume | 466,142 contracts traded lifetime, 282,042 of them in the last 24 hours |
| Prices Below As Of | Shortly before 7:00 a.m. ET on Thursday, August 27, 2026, about four hours before the first tee. Prices move with every trade; check Kalshi for the live quote before you act |
New to Kalshi's yes/no contracts? Start here → how Kalshi's event markets work, and check where Kalshi is legal before you trade. Prices here are live market quotes, and any probabilities read from them are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
A Board With No Longshots
The glamour golf boards Kalshi runs this week live at the bottom of the price range: the first round leader board bottoms out under 2 cents, and the winner board prices most of the field below a nickel. This board's floor is Ryan Fox at 13/14 cents, and that is not an accident of enthusiasm. It is arithmetic. Thirty players, no cut, ten paid spots plus ties: every man in the field will play all 72 holes, and every man needs to beat only 20 others to cash. The thesis of this page is that a market shaped like this one rewards a different skill than the glamour boards do, consistency instead of ceiling, and that the market has priced this field's consistency from reputation while East Lake's most recent leaderboard, which we will count row by row in a moment, kept a different ledger.
Start with the market's own math. The bid side of all 30 contracts sums to 1,082 cents and the ask side to 1,114. If exactly ten players paid, a perfectly efficient board would sum to about 1,000; the extra 8 to 11 percent is the tie premium. The rule says top 10 including ties, every tied man resolves Yes at the full $1, and the market is pricing roughly eleven expected payouts. Hold that number.
Here is the full board as of Thursday morning, Yes bid and ask in cents, with lifetime and 24-hour contracts traded:
| Golfer | Yes Bid / Ask | Contracts Traded | Last 24 Hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 77¢ / 78¢ | 20,617 | 9,494 |
| Rory McIlroy | 58¢ / 60¢ | 18,657 | 12,553 |
| Xander Schauffele | 57¢ / 59¢ | 17,574 | 12,417 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 49¢ / 50¢ | 26,369 | 9,894 |
| Collin Morikawa | 46¢ / 47¢ | 90,835 | 72,814 |
| Sam Burns | 45¢ / 46¢ | 16,440 | 7,025 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 45¢ / 46¢ | 4,582 | 1,338 |
| Ludvig Aberg | 43¢ / 44¢ | 12,845 | 2,586 |
| Cameron Young | 42¢ / 43¢ | 8,255 | 3,084 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 41¢ / 42¢ | 6,272 | 2,496 |
| Wyndham Clark | 41¢ / 42¢ | 63,948 | 44,637 |
| Viktor Hovland | 41¢ / 42¢ | 3,667 | 1,012 |
| Si Woo Kim | 41¢ / 42¢ | 6,217 | 3,801 |
| Chris Gotterup | 40¢ / 41¢ | 28,544 | 13,682 |
| Russell Henley | 39¢ / 40¢ | 37,667 | 21,334 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 38¢ / 39¢ | 9,945 | 6,894 |
| Ryan Gerard | 30¢ / 31¢ | 6,089 | 478 |
| Adam Scott | 30¢ / 31¢ | 1,672 | 695 |
| Robert MacIntyre | 30¢ / 31¢ | 13,329 | 11,803 |
| Tom Kim | 28¢ / 29¢ | 6,244 | 3,055 |
| Justin Rose | 28¢ / 29¢ | 1,273 | 957 |
| J.J. Spaun | 26¢ / 27¢ | 3,290 | 1,480 |
| Min Woo Lee | 25¢ / 26¢ | 881 | 173 |
| Gary Woodland | 25¢ / 26¢ | 20,718 | 16,818 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 23¢ / 24¢ | 5,028 | 1,858 |
| Alex Smalley | 23¢ / 24¢ | 4,353 | 1,110 |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 21¢ / 22¢ | 1,003 | 104 |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 19¢ / 20¢ | 4,843 | 4,020 |
| Akshay Bhatia | 18¢ / 19¢ | 4,448 | 2,507 |
| Ryan Fox | 13¢ / 14¢ | 20,536 | 11,926 |
All 30 markets are live on Kalshi; quotes are one snapshot from Thursday morning and move with every trade.
The row that owns this board is Morikawa's. His 90,835 lifetime contracts are the most on any of the 30 markets, nearly a fifth of everything this board has ever traded, and 72,814 of them, about a quarter of everything this board traded in the last day, arrived in the final 24 hours before the first tee. Wyndham Clark's 44,637 is the second-heaviest 24-hour count, Russell Henley's 21,334 the third. What the money is buying in Morikawa's case is worth pausing on, because his East Lake record splits cleanly in half: on our Round 1 stroke-lines page he is the board's best opener, under his Thursday line in four straight visits, and on last year's final leaderboard, which is the ledger this market actually settles on, he opened 64 and slid to a tie for 19th. The heaviest flow on a four-day market is chasing a one-day skill. Note also how tight this book is quoted: 28 of the 30 markets are a single cent wide, and the two exceptions are the board's second and third prices, McIlroy at 58/60 and Schauffele at 57/59, which is an odd place for a liquid market to hedge its confidence.
What Last Year's Leaderboard Paid
The promise from the top of the page was a count, so here is the count. The 2025 Tour Championship was the first played under the current format, everyone starting at even par with no starting strokes, which makes it the one clean, apples-to-apples year for this market's exact question. Tommy Fleetwood won at 18 under. Behind him, Chris Gotterup and Ben Griffin tied for 10th at 12 under, and because a tie for 10th pays everyone in it, eleven players cashed the top-10 question. The market's 1,114-cent ask-sum is not a quirk; it is last year's leaderboard priced forward.
Seventeen of this year's 30 players were in that field. Here is each one's actual 2025 finish next to the price the market charges him today, per ESPN's final leaderboard:
| Golfer (Today's Ask) | 2025 Finish | 2025 Score | Cashed Top 10? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Fleetwood (46¢) | Won | 18 under | Yes |
| Russell Henley (40¢) | T2 | 15 under | Yes |
| Patrick Cantlay (50¢) | T2 | 15 under | Yes |
| Cameron Young (43¢) | T4 | 14 under | Yes |
| Scottie Scheffler (78¢) | T4 | 14 under | Yes |
| Sam Burns (46¢) | T7 | 13 under | Yes |
| Chris Gotterup (41¢) | T10 | 12 under | Yes (on the tie) |
| Viktor Hovland (42¢) | 12th | 11 under | No, by one shot |
| Akshay Bhatia (19¢) | T13 | 10 under | No, by two shots |
| Robert MacIntyre (31¢) | T17 | 9 under | No |
| Collin Morikawa (47¢) | T19 | 8 under | No |
| Justin Rose (29¢) | T21 | 7 under | No |
| Ludvig Aberg (44¢) | T21 | 7 under | No |
| Rory McIlroy (60¢) | T23 | 6 under | No |
| J.J. Spaun (27¢) | T25 | 4 under | No |
| Jacob Bridgeman (24¢) | T27 | Even | No |
| Hideki Matsuyama (39¢) | 29th | 3 over | No |
The other 13 players on this year's board, including Xander Schauffele, Wyndham Clark, Matt Fitzpatrick, Gary Woodland and the six Tour Championship debutants, were not in the 2025 field. Source: ESPN's final 2025 Tour Championship leaderboard.
The row I keep coming back to is Fleetwood's. The man won this exact tournament, on this exact course, twelve months ago, at 18 under. The market prices his top-10 chance at 45/46 cents, the same quote as Sam Burns, four cents below Cantlay and 32 below Scheffler. Only 1,338 of his contracts traded in the last 24 hours, the quietest book among the board's top seven prices, so this is not a price the crowd argued down; it is a price the crowd has not bothered to argue about. Whatever you think a title defense is worth at a venue, the market thinks it is worth a coin flip.
McIlroy's row is the same argument inverted, and it continues a pattern the Round 1 board already showed this morning: the market pays McIlroy for who he is, not for what East Lake has watched him do. He finished tied for 23rd of 30 here last year, six shots out of the pay window, and today he holds the second price on the entire board at 58/60, on one of its only two-cent spreads. And then there is the strangest pairing on the page: Hideki Matsuyama at 38/39 cents against Akshay Bhatia at 18/19. Last year Bhatia beat Matsuyama by 13 shots at this course, finished 16 leaderboard spots ahead of him, and missed the expanded pay window by two; the market charges Matsuyama double.
Two honest caveats before this table talks you into anything. One year is one year: 2025 is the only Tour Championship played with everyone starting level, because the 2022 through 2024 editions began with staggered starting strokes, so their final leaderboards answer a different question than the one this contract asks, and this page will not pretend otherwise. And a finish is a blunter fact than a stroke line; Cantlay's T2 last year sits oddly against his 1-for-4 record beating his Round 1 lines, which is just another way of saying he did his 2025 scoring after Thursday. The table is not a prophecy. It is simply the only settled edition of this exact market that exists, and where the market's price and the settled edition disagree by 20 cents, you should at least know which side of the disagreement you are buying.
The Cliff, The Cluster, And What The Money Knows
Zoom out from the rows and the board has a shape: one man alone, a short shelf, then a crowd. Scheffler at 77/78 is priced 18 cents clear of McIlroy, the largest gap between any two adjacent prices on the board. The shelf is McIlroy and Schauffele at 58/60 and 57/59, and then the board flattens violently: thirteen names quoted between 39 and 50 cents, from Cantlay down through Matsuyama, a convention of coin flips where the market declines to separate the defending champion from a man who finished 29th last year by seven cents. In a 30-man field where eleven can cash, that flatness is a statement: behind the top three, the market believes this field's four-day outcomes are close to interchangeable.
The 24-hour volume column is where the market tips which coin flips it actually cares about, and the audit gets sharper when you put this board next to its siblings, all fetched the same morning. Scheffler's three prices cohere: 21/22 cents to win the tournament on the winner board, 9.8/9.9 to lead after Thursday on the first round leader board, 77/78 to finish top 10 here. That is one consistent opinion about the best player in the field. Ryan Gerard's trio is the market talking to itself: 58/59 cents that he breaks 68.5 on Thursday, per the stroke-lines board, but only 30/31 that he finishes top 10 and a 2.7-cent ask to lead outright, the same believes-in-a-good-round-not-a-great-one signature he carried at dawn. Fleetwood's is the quiet scandal: the defending champion's ask is only the tenth-highest on the winner board at 3.9 cents, below Young and barely above Gotterup. And Gary Woodland's row deserves a flag of the opposite kind: 16,818 contracts in 24 hours, the fourth-heaviest flow on the board, into a 25/26-cent price for a player who has not hit a competitive shot at East Lake since 2019. When the flow leaders are a fast-Thursday specialist, a man with no 2025 East Lake row, and a player who last saw the course in 2019, the volume column is telling you where attention went, not where evidence lives. On this board, the evidence column is the table above.
The Placement Rung America Gets
There is a structural reason this board deserves more attention than a mid-tier placement market usually earns: it is the middle rung of the American replacement for a bet that does not exist here. The each-way bet, the classic win-or-place ticket golf bettors elsewhere take for granted, is not available at US books; the American route to the same idea is the discrete finishing-position market, top 5, top 10, top 20. Kalshi lists that full ladder for the finale, a top-5 board (KXPGATOP5-TOC26, 250,418 contracts traded) and a top-20 board (KXPGATOP20-TOC26, 210,953) alongside this one, and this top-10 rung is the busiest of the three. As Ben Rasa lays it out on our Putting for Dough show, top-finish markets are where you want well-rounded consistency rather than ceiling, the player who stacks 16ths and 8ths and 4ths, because the top-10 question does not ask anyone to beat the field, only to avoid the blow-up that drops him out of it. His staking shape for these markets runs heaviest at the widest rung and lightest at the win, which maps onto Kalshi's ladder one to one; the top-10 board is the pyramid's middle, the price point where consistency starts getting paid like a skill. Tee-to-green reliability and bogey avoidance are the profile; the boom-or-bust bomber whose weeks end in wins or missed cuts is the classic top-finish trap.
The no-cut format bends that logic one notch further in the buyer's favor. In a regular Tour week, the volatile star's downside is going home Friday; here the downside does not exist, every player finishes 72 holes, and a bad Thursday can still become a T9 by Sunday. That compresses the field's risk profiles toward each other, which is half a defense of the market's flat 39-to-50-cent cluster. The other half of the argument, the one the cluster ignores, is the tie rule, and it is this board's cleanest structural gift. A sportsbook top-10 ticket that lands on an 11-way pay window typically gets dead-heat reduced, the payout chopped because too many players tied; a Kalshi Yes resolves at the full $1 for every man inside the number. Last year, with Gotterup and Griffin tied for 10th, the exchange contract was the strictly better instrument to be holding, and the 8-to-11-percent tie premium baked into the board's sum is you paying, fairly, for that difference. If the mechanics of reading these quotes are new to you, what a Kalshi price actually means covers the translation, and the broader exchange-versus-sportsbook method lives in Kalshi vs. DraftKings.
Fees, Weather, And Four Days Of Clock
Two practical notes before anyone lifts an ask. First, fees: Kalshi's trading fees scale with the product of price and its complement, largest near 50 cents, smallest at the extremes, and this board's center of mass sits squarely in the expensive zone, with fifteen contracts quoted between 38 and 60 cents. The same discipline the Round 1 scores board demands applies here: at mid prices, posting the bid instead of lifting the ask is a real fraction of your expected profit, and the two-cent rows, McIlroy and Schauffele, cost double to cross. Second, weather: the National Weather Service gives tee day a 49 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mostly after 11:00 a.m. ET, with more storm chances in the forecast behind it. For the one-day boards that is a draw lottery; for a four-day market it mostly matters as a scoring environment, since softer greens at a 7,440-yard par 70 compress the field and make low weekends available to the whole 30, which marginally helps the cheap, steady rows and marginally hurts anyone whose price depends on separation. This market settles on the final leaderboard Sunday evening, ties included, so a Thursday position here is a four-day hold; nothing about a rain delay changes what you own, only how long you sweat it.
How To Shop This Board Before The First Tee
- Decide What A Title Defense Is Worth, Because The Market Has Decided It Is Worth Nothing. Fleetwood at 46 cents is priced identically to Burns and below Cantlay, with the thinnest 24-hour book among the top prices. If you believe last year's 18-under winner retains any course signal, his is the price the table argues hardest against; if you believe fields reset to zero every August, the market has already built that ticket for you.
- Price The Record Against The Reputation, Then Pick A Side. McIlroy at 60 after a T23, Matsuyama at 39 after a 29th, Bhatia at 19 after a T13: the board repeatedly charges more for the bigger name than for the better East Lake year. Both directions are playable; what is not defensible is paying the reputation premium without knowing it exists.
- Respect The Tie Rule When Comparing Prices Elsewhere. The Kalshi Yes pays the full $1 on an 11-way pay window where a book's top-10 ticket gets dead-heat chopped. Comparing this board's 41 cents to a sportsbook's implied 41 percent is not apples to apples until you adjust for that, and the adjustment always favors the exchange side.
- Treat The Volume Column As Attention, Not Evidence. Morikawa's 72,814-contract day is chasing the field's best Thursday game on a Sunday-settled market; Woodland's fourth-heaviest flow arrives with no East Lake round since 2019. The 2025 finish table is the evidence column, and it was here first.
Before the first group goes off this morning, line this board up against our free expert picks for today and the Kalshi golf picks hub for the picks-first read on the week, and put the exchange's quotes next to how the books price the same 30 names on the live golf odds screen, where you can shop the number across every major book.
For the deeper tools, the +EV screen, no-vig fair pricing and line shopping across the major sportsbooks, OddsShopper Pro starts with a free 7-day trial, and code TOCTOP20 takes 20% off when you keep it.
In Summary
Kalshi's Tour Championship Top 10 Finishers board goes to the first tee as a 466,142-contract book with a shape none of its sibling boards share: a 14-cent floor, a 78-cent ceiling, and thirteen coin flips crowded in between, summing to a market that expects about eleven of thirty men to cash, which is exactly what East Lake paid last year when the 10th-place tie stretched the window to eleven. Its prices and its one settled precedent disagree in specific, checkable places: the defending champion at 46 cents with nobody trading him, the second price on the board belonging to a man who finished 23rd of 30 last year, a 13-shot East Lake gap between Bhatia and Matsuyama priced upside down. The tie rule makes the exchange contract strictly kinder than a dead-heat-reduced sportsbook ticket, the no-cut format keeps every position alive for 72 holes, and the fee math rewards patience at mid prices. This is the busiest placement rung American golf traders get on the season finale; shop it with the finish table open, and remember which column on this page is attention and which one is evidence.
- Kalshi Tour Championship Round 1 Scores: Morikawa 4-For-4
- Tour Championship First Round Leader Kalshi Odds: 1.1M Contracts Overnight
- Tour Championship Odds: The Full 30-Man Kalshi Board
- FedEx Cup Odds: The Kalshi Market That Doesn't Exist
- Kalshi Golf Picks Hub
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Kalshi Tour Championship Top 10 Finishers market?
It is a board of 30 yes/no contracts under the event ticker KXPGATOP10-TOC26, one per player in the 2026 Tour Championship field at East Lake. Each contract resolves Yes and pays $1 if that player finishes the tournament in the top 10, including ties. Scottie Scheffler is the most expensive contract at 77/78 cents, and Ryan Fox is the cheapest at 13/14 cents.
How do ties work on the Kalshi top 10 board? The contract language says top 10 including ties, so every player tied for 10th place or better resolves Yes at the full $1, with no reduced payout. That matters: at the 2025 Tour Championship, Chris Gotterup and Ben Griffin tied for 10th at 12 under, so eleven players finished in the top 10 including ties. A sportsbook top-10 ticket typically gets dead-heat reduced in that spot; the Kalshi contract does not.
Who does the market like most, and who is cheapest? Scottie Scheffler is priced at 77/78 cents, 18 cents clear of Rory McIlroy at 58/60 and Xander Schauffele at 57/59. Below those three the board flattens into a cluster of thirteen names quoted between 39 and 50 cents. Ryan Fox holds the lowest price at 13/14 cents, which means even the board's biggest longshot is priced with a real chance in a 30-man, no-cut field.
How did this year's field actually finish at East Lake last year? Seven of this year's 30 players cashed the top-10 question at the 2025 Tour Championship: winner Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley and Patrick Cantlay tied for second, Cameron Young and Scottie Scheffler tied for fourth, Sam Burns tied for seventh, and Chris Gotterup tied for 10th. Rory McIlroy, the board's second price this year, finished tied for 23rd of 30. Source: ESPN's final 2025 leaderboard.
