Kalshi's favorite for the Biltmore Championship Asheville opened the week as a 21-year-old rookie at 6.2¢, and his whole case was one win in 16 career starts. With 18 holes left the favorite is Neal Shipley at 43¢. He is a 25-year-old with two Korn Ferry Tour wins and none on the PGA Tour, and he leads Ben Kohles, 36 and also winless on Tour, by one shot at 21 under. Jackson Koivun, Monday's favorite, is 2.8¢ and six back. The board opened at 7:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 13, without Justin Thomas, the highest-ranked player committed to the PGA Tour's first Asheville stop in more than 80 years, who withdrew Sunday with no reason given and was replaced by Cameron Champ. There is no Thomas contract on the exchange. What filled the gap was a 129-name market where nobody asked more than 6.2¢, and where roughly $3,000 of one-way buying set the price at the top.
The event is KXPGATOUR-BICA26, one yes/no contract per golfer, and each one resolves Yes and pays $1 if that golfer wins. The clause that changes the trade: a golfer who withdraws before teeing off resolves No, so a pre-tournament WD is a loss and not a refund. The tournament runs September 17-20 at The Cliffs at Walnut Cove, a par 71 in Arden, North Carolina, with a $5 million purse and 500 FedExCup points to the winner. New to this? Start with how Kalshi's event markets work, and check where Kalshi is legal before you trade.
The Board: Everyone Kalshi Asks 2¢ Or More For
Yes bid and ask in cents, the win probability implied by the DraftKings outright price published Monday before the first round (raw, no vig removed, kept as the pre-tournament marker), and lifetime contracts traded. Prices read at 2:45 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 19, minutes after the third round finished, with 28,654,970 contracts traded since the Sunday-night open.
| Golfer | Yes bid | Yes ask | DraftKings implied (Mon., pre-tournament) | Contracts traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neal Shipley | 41.0¢ | 43.0¢ | 1.15% | 577,474 |
| Ben Kohles | 30.0¢ | 31.0¢ | 1.85% | 960,549 |
| Eric Cole | 5.6¢ | 6.6¢ | 2.78% | 966,053 |
| Ricky Castillo | 4.6¢ | 5.2¢ | 1.69% | 356,652 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 4.1¢ | 4.3¢ | 5.13% | 1,457,892 |
| Jackson Koivun | 2.4¢ | 2.8¢ | 7.02% | 1,297,467 |
| Max Greyserman | 2.2¢ | 2.7¢ | 1.92% | 821,912 |
That is the whole buyable board with 18 holes left. Kalshi has listed 135 contracts since the open, six more than Monday's 129: 78 are still live, 56 have been settled No, most of them at Friday's cut, and one is inactive. Seven of the 78 ask 2¢ or more, and only nine ask a full penny or more. Add up every open Yes ask and you get about 108¢, down from 117¢ on Monday, because a two-man race prices tighter than a 129-name lottery. The Irish Open board earlier this month on our Kalshi golf picks page had a 22¢ favorite after one round; this one had a 6.2¢ favorite with no golf played and needed 54 holes to produce a 43¢ one, and he was asking 0.7¢ on Thursday afternoon.
The DraftKings column is Monday's pre-tournament price, kept so you can see what the week did to each name: Shipley was 1.15% at the book on Monday and asks 43¢ on the exchange now, and Koivun was 7.02% and asks 2.8¢. At Monday's read, Kalshi's ask was lower than the book's implied price on 15 of the 16 rows then priced at 2¢ or more; the book's final-round outright prices are a different market from that sheet, so compare them live. Kalshi's taker fee still applies, roughly 7% of the price times one minus the price, which is about 1.7¢ on Shipley at 43¢ and 1.5¢ on Kohles at 31¢. Shop the number across every major book on our live golf odds screen before you pay either price. OddsShopper Pro puts them all on one screen, 20% off with code BILTMORE20.
What Moved Since 2026-09-16
The board above is Saturday's. The one this page shipped with was read on Monday afternoon, and the page was last touched on Wednesday, September 16, before a ball was hit. Between the two reads, Kalshi settled 56 contracts No, most of them at Friday's cut, which fell at 3 under with 76 players through, and the tournament found its favorite in a golfer the exchange priced under a penny through Wednesday. Session closes are Kalshi's daily candles, read in Eastern time.
| Golfer | Mon. close | Thu. close | Fri. close | Sat. 2:45 p.m. ask | After 54 holes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neal Shipley | 0.8¢ | 2.8¢ | 29¢ | 43¢ | 1st, 21 under |
| Ben Kohles | 1.4¢ | 4.7¢ | 24¢ | 31¢ | 2nd, 20 under |
| Eric Cole | 2.1¢ | 11¢ | 4.8¢ | 6.6¢ | T3, 17 under |
| Ricky Castillo | 1.1¢ | 0.6¢ | 6.2¢ | 5.2¢ | T3, 17 under |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 4.4¢ | 7.0¢ | 4.7¢ | 4.3¢ | T5, 16 under |
| Max Greyserman | 1.3¢ | 7.0¢ | 6.4¢ | 2.7¢ | T5, 16 under |
| Jackson Koivun | 6.3¢ | 4.2¢ | 1.9¢ | 2.8¢ | T7, 15 under |
| Davis Thompson | 3.1¢ | 0.9¢ | settled No | settled No | missed cut |
Shipley is the row. He came into the week 183rd in FedExCup points, outside the top 100 that keeps a full card for 2027, and told the Tour on Thursday that "a win would take care of that, and now I'm really focused on trying to win this fall." The biggest print on his contract that day was 9,970 contracts bought at 0.7¢ at 2:18 p.m. ET, about $70 for what is now the 54-hole leader. His bogey-free 62 on Friday, the lowest round of his career, took the close from 2.8¢ to 29¢, and the tape since Thursday reads 432,939 contracts bought at the ask against 124,139 sold into the bid. Saturday's round, played early because the Tour moved tee times up ahead of forecast rain, was a two-man swap all afternoon: in the 1 p.m. ET hour the last prints had Kohles at 36¢ and Shipley at 17¢, then Kohles bogeyed the 13th, Shipley birdied it, and by the time the cards were signed it was Shipley 43¢ and Kohles 31¢ with one shot between them. Kohles, 36, has five Korn Ferry Tour wins and none on the PGA Tour, so whoever wins on Sunday wins for the first time.
The Monday favorite went the other way. Koivun closed Thursday at 4.2¢ and Friday at 1.9¢, and the largest print on his contract since Thursday was 23,000 contracts bought at 2.2¢ at 8:08 p.m. ET Friday, about $506 for a rookie whose price had halved in a day. His 63 on Saturday, eight under, bought him back to 2.8¢ and a tie for seventh, six shots back. Eric Cole is the callback to the tier I argued about on Monday: the one name from the 2¢ band who is still in it, four back in a tie for third, and the round 1 leader market on this event settled at 50¢ apiece for Cole and Greyserman, who shared Thursday's lead. The rest of the open board is 57 contracts with no bid at all.
What 6.2¢ On A Rookie Is Buying
Jackson Koivun won the 3M Open in July in his 13th career start and his third since turning pro, beating Scottie Scheffler by three with back-to-back bogey-free weekend rounds and a 25-under 259 that broke the tournament record. That win got him into the playoffs and, at 21, a captain's pick from Brandt Snedeker, which makes him the youngest American in a Presidents Cup since Jordan Spieth in 2015.
The record since is ordinary: T31 at the Rocket Classic, T29 at the Wyndham, T24 at the FedEx St. Jude. Coming into the week the Tour's profile had him 67th in FedExCup points, and four of his last five rounds had been 70 or higher. One win in 16 career starts is a thin case for a favorite, however good the week was.
The tape on Monday said the buyers were not fighting the price, they set it. Of the 138 Koivun trades Kalshi returned Monday afternoon, 125 had a Yes-side taker: about 57,700 contracts bought at the ask against about 3,200 sold into the bid. The best print is buried near the start, at 10:30 p.m. ET Sunday, when two 3,000-contract lots filled at 0.4¢ and the favorite was bought for $24 in total while the book was still thin. Strip those out and the rest of the buying comes to roughly $3,000. By Monday afternoon the spread was a tenth of a cent, 6.1 bid and 6.2 ask. A price that tight normally means a market has been argued over. That one had not been. It had been bought, in one direction, for about the cost of a used car. What the golf did to it is in the table above: 4.2¢ at Thursday's close, 1.9¢ at Friday's, 2.8¢ on Saturday afternoon after the best round of his week.
The Two Names Worth The Argument
Ben Rasa's outright rule on our Putting for Dough show is to pass on elite chalk at short prices and start engaging proven talent around 40 to 50 to 1, which on this board is an ask near 2¢. The problem on Monday's board was that the band was full of names with nothing to show this year, and the two golfers with real wins sat just above it.
Jacob Bridgeman, 4.2¢ at Monday afternoon's read and 4.3¢ on Saturday afternoon with 54 holes leaving him five back in a tie for fifth, is the statistical outlier here. When the Presidents Cup rosters were set, the PGA Tour's notes had him leading the Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting, and he won the Genesis Invitational at Riviera by one over Rory McIlroy and Kurt Kitayama, then made the Tour Championship and tied for fourth at East Lake. Be clear about the shape of that case: it is putting, the part of a game most likely to cool off week to week, and Rasa's favorite buy-low is the opposite, strong tee-to-green numbers masked by cold greens.
J.T. Poston, 2.7¢ on Monday and 0.2¢ on Saturday, still open but outside the top 15 after 54 holes, was the closer of the two to the band. He won the Memorial in a playoff over Ryan Gerard, a signature event of the same weight as Riviera, and he is a Western Carolina graduate, so these mountains are where he played his college golf. The golfers literally inside Rasa's band on Monday were Kevin Yu, Jackson Suber, Beau Hossler, Eric Cole, Ryo Hisatsune, Blades Brown and Keita Nakajima at 2¢ to 2.4¢, and none of them had a win this year of that weight. Cole is the only one of the seven still in contention, 6.6¢ and four back; Hossler, Hisatsune and Nakajima were settled No at the cut, and Yu, Suber and Brown survived it at a penny or less.
Seven Presidents Cup players teed it up after the Thomas withdrawal, and the Presidents Cup odds page covers that event itself. Only Bridgeman and Koivun are priced like it.
Nobody Has Played This Course For Real
The Cliffs at Walnut Cove is a Jack Nicklaus Signature course that opened in 2005 and had never hosted a Tour event before this week. The Tour lists it at par 71 and 7,249 yards, and it sits between 2,100 and 2,250 feet in a valley bordering Pisgah National Forest. The common rule of thumb is about 2% more carry per 1,000 feet, so a 7,249-yard par 71 up there plays closer to 6,930, which trims the pure length edge.
The bigger consequence was that nobody had ShotLink numbers at Walnut Cove coming in. The usual fit question, whose game matches what this track rewards, had nothing to run on, and any course angle written before Thursday was a guess. With no reps for anyone, the only honest case for a golfer was his season, which is why both arguments above were built on this year's record. Three rounds in, the course has given up a 61, two 62s and a 63, so the teeth Shipley described on Thursday, the long par 3s, have not held anyone back. That is what 43¢ is pricing on Sunday: scoring variance on a course that gives up ten-under rounds, not a leader holding a hard course off.
The Next Tier, 0.4¢ To 1.7¢
Rows 8 through 14 of the same board, same stamp. Below this every ask is 0.2¢ or less and the bid is a tenth of a cent or nothing; 57 of the 78 live rows have no bid at all.
| Golfer | Yes bid | Yes ask | DraftKings implied (Mon., pre-tournament) | Contracts traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Penge | 1.6¢ | 1.7¢ | 3.03% | 392,138 |
| Hao-Tong Li | 0.8¢ | 1.0¢ | 1.52% | 611,993 |
| Benjamin James | 0.7¢ | 0.8¢ | 3.92% | 753,386 |
| Seamus Power | 0.5¢ | 0.8¢ | 0.94% | 139,766 |
| Johnny Keefer | 0.4¢ | 0.5¢ | 2.27% | 148,275 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 0.3¢ | 0.5¢ | 1.82% | 196,297 |
| Zecheng Dou | 0.2¢ | 0.4¢ | 0.94% | 95,215 |
Haotong Li is the row that moved most inside this tier: his 61 on Saturday, ten under and the lowest round of his PGA Tour career, took him from 0.2¢ at Friday's close to 1.0¢, and it still leaves him six back in a tie for seventh with Koivun, Penge and Power. Billy Horschel, 0.2¢ and still open, matters for a different reason: Golf Channel had him 100th in FedExCup points when the field came out, with Lucas Glover 101st, one on either side of the line between a full card and conditional status for 2027. The winner market does not price survival, but the card bubble is why this field is what it is.
The Tail Is A Sweep, Not A Signal
Monday's three most-traded contracts were not Koivun and Bridgeman. They were Nick Dunlap at 106,010 contracts, Davis Riley at 98,088 and Aaron Wise at 96,372, all asking between 0.2¢ and 0.3¢ with bids at zero or a tenth, while Koivun, the favorite, had traded about 60,900. By Saturday the most-traded contract is Bridgeman at 1,457,892, Riley and Wise have been settled No at the cut, and Dunlap is still open at 0.1¢ with 578,513 traded.
The trades explain it. From 2:32 to 2:42 p.m. ET Monday, Dunlap's tape shows Yes-side takers buying 3,000-contract lots at 0.1¢ every couple of minutes plus one 10,000 lot; Wise's shows the same pattern from 2:55 to 2:57, and Riley's shows 6,000-lot buys at 0.2¢ and 0.3¢. A 3,000-contract lot at 0.1¢ costs $3. Read those volume numbers as a sweep at the minimum tick, not as conviction, and read the prices with the same suspicion, because a 0.1¢ bid means there is nobody to sell to when you want out.
The cost of the board lived down here too. On Monday, across the 16 rows at 2¢ and up, the gap between what buyers paid and what sellers got totaled about 5¢, and across the 113 rows under 2¢ it totaled about 37¢. That was where most of the overround sat, and the cut is what took it out: Saturday's 108¢ carries about 6¢ of spread on the seven rows at 2¢ and up and about 8¢ on the 71 below.
Two rows deserved a specific warning on Monday. Seung-Yul Noh was listed at 0.1¢ and was not on the Tour's 128-man field sheet; under the withdrawal clause, a golfer who does not tee off resolves No, and Kalshi has since settled that contract No. And Cameron Champ, the man who took Thomas's place, asked 0.3¢ on Monday and had not traded a single contract; he is still open at 0.1¢ with 147,890 traded since. The replacement for the best player in the field was a name nobody on the exchange had touched.
Where I Land
A 6.2¢ favorite with a tenth-of-a-cent spread looked like a settled price on Monday, and it was not: Koivun is 2.8¢ with 18 holes left. It was one dominant week in July, a Presidents Cup nod, and about $3,000 of one-way buying on a course nobody had played in competition. The names worth the argument were one tier down, Poston and Bridgeman, both with a real win on the card this year, and Bridgeman is the one still in range, 4.3¢ and five back. Sunday is a two-man price, Shipley at 43¢ and Kohles at 31¢, 74¢ of a 108¢ board on two golfers with no Tour win between them and one shot between them. Leave the sub-penny rows alone, the Noh row has resolved No, and the round I said would move more names than any preview turned out to be Shipley's 62 on Friday. Is 43¢ the right number for a one-shot lead held by a golfer who has never closed on Tour? The fee makes it about 44.7¢ all in, the two leaders absorb 74¢ of the board, and that leaves 34¢ spread across 76 chasers, 12¢ of it on Cole and Castillo four back. I am not adding a Sunday position on a course with three rounds of history; the number worth knowing is that Kohles at 31¢ is the same argument from one shot further back, and the market has moved between those two prices all afternoon.
Every name here is a different price at every sportsbook, and the gap is the edge. OddsShopper Pro puts the outright prices from the major books on one screen, with the free expert picks beside them, 20% off with code BILTMORE20.
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Prices above are live market data as of the stamp, the implied percentages are raw sportsbook conversions with the vig left in, and the probabilities on this page are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. The Kalshi picks today hub carries the rest of the exchange's board each day.
More on this: MAC Championship Odds: Ohio Never Has To Play The Favorite · Pac-12 Championship Odds: Boise State Is 0-1 And Still Favored · Kalshi Tour Championship Round 1 Scores: Morikawa 4-For-4 · Tour Championship Top 10 Finishers Kalshi Odds: Final Round · Tour Championship First Round Leader Kalshi Odds: The Result
