The rebuilt Pac-12 played its first weekend as an eight-team league from September 4 to 6, and it went 2-6. Five members played on the road and all five lost. Of the three that stayed home, Colorado State beat Wyoming 35-13 and San Diego State beat Portland State 53-20. The third, Utah State, lost 29-17 to Idaho State, a team from the FCS, the division below.
Kalshi's contracts on who wins the December 4 championship game barely moved. Boise State, which lost its opener on the road at Oregon, is bid 46 cents and offered 47. On a market where a winning contract pays a dollar, that is close to half of an eight-team field held by a team that has not won a game yet.
We asked eight AI models to price the same eight teams without letting any of them see a single market number. They agreed Boise State is the favorite. They would not pay 46 cents for it, and the reason has almost nothing to do with the loss at Oregon. It is a schedule the conference built on purpose, and two scores from last November.
New to how these contracts settle? Our guide to college football on Kalshi walks through each market family in a few minutes.
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The Round Robin Is The Whole Story
Most conference title races are arguments about schedules. This one cannot be. The Pac-12's own schedule release states the format plainly: eight football members, a seven-game round-robin slate in which every team faces every other team once, and no divisions. Nobody misses anybody. Nobody draws an easy half of a league.
Two more rules matter as much as that one. The regular season ends on November 28 with a flex week, a home-and-home matchup among the eight members that the conference counts as a non-conference game for standings, and that it reserves the right to reshuffle for College Football Playoff reasons. So the title race is actually over a week before the regular season is. The two participants are set at the conclusion of Week 12 on November 21, and the championship game is played on Friday, December 4 at the home venue of the higher seed, on CBS and Paramount+.
Read those two facts together and the shape of this market changes. When every schedule contains the same seven opponents, the only structural difference left between two teams is which of those games are at home. And because the top seed hosts the title game, a team that finishes first collects a second home field on top of the first.
The conference gave four of the eight teams four home league games and the other four just three. Which four got the four is not something any of them controlled. It is also, on this schedule, the closest thing the Pac-12 has to a seed.
Boise State Drew The Four Home Games That Matter
Here is the full allocation.
| Team | Conference home games | Hosts | Travels to |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State | 4 | San Diego St., Texas St., Oregon St., Utah St. | Fresno St., Washington St., Colorado St. |
| Oregon State | 4 | San Diego St., Washington St., Texas St., Utah St. | Boise St., Fresno St., Colorado St. |
| San Diego State | 4 | Texas St., Fresno St., Washington St., Utah St. | Boise St., Oregon St., Colorado St. |
| Texas State | 4 | Colorado St., Fresno St., Washington St., Utah St. | Boise St., San Diego St., Oregon St. |
| Colorado State | 3 | Boise St., San Diego St., Oregon St. | Texas St., Fresno St., Washington St., Utah St. |
| Fresno State | 3 | Boise St., Colorado St., Oregon St. | San Diego St., Texas St., Washington St., Utah St. |
| Utah State | 3 | Colorado St., Fresno St., Washington St. | Boise St., San Diego St., Texas St., Oregon St. |
| Washington State | 3 | Boise St., Colorado St., Fresno St. | San Diego St., Texas St., Oregon St., Utah St. |
Boise State is one of the four teams with four home conference games, and it hosts the other three: San Diego State, Texas State and Oregon State all come to Albertsons Stadium. Its road card is Fresno State on October 10, Washington State on October 24 and Colorado State on November 7. Then, if it finishes first, it hosts the championship game as well.
That is the case for a big number, and every seat on the panel made some version of it. It is also the case the market appears to have already paid for.
The receipts cut the other way. Boise State went 9-5 last season and lost to two of the teams now chasing it, both in November. Fresno State won 30-7 in Boise on November 1. San Diego State won 17-7 on November 15. Add those two games together and the Broncos scored 14 points. One of the two rematches, Fresno State, is a road game.
There is a real argument on the other side, and it is the AP poll. Boise State is the only Pac-12 team receiving votes in this week's Associated Press Top 25, with 86 points. It also took Oregon, ranked sixth this week, to 34-27 on the road in Week 1. San Diego State is the only other member with a vote anywhere, at two points in the coaches' poll. In a league where nobody is ranked, the closest thing to a national opinion still says Boise State.
So the market and the machines are not arguing about who is best. They are arguing about how much of an eight-team field one team can be worth when it has to win seven league games against opponents this close together, then win a one-off game in December.
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The Board
Every listed team, with Kalshi's bid and ask, how many of its seven conference games are at home, and the eight-model blended number. Prices as of 1:40 p.m. ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2026. Records are 2026 results after Week 1. The panel column is the median of eight model estimates, each made without seeing a price, after one revision round.
| Team | 2026 | Home league games | Kalshi bid / ask | Panel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State | 0-1 | 4 | 46¢ / 47¢ | 36.5% |
| San Diego State | 1-0 | 4 | 15¢ / 16¢ | 18.5% |
| Texas State | 0-1 | 4 | 10¢ / 11¢ | 14.0% |
| Fresno State | 0-1 | 3 | 9¢ / 10¢ | 10.3% |
| Washington State | 0-1 | 3 | 5¢ / 6¢ | 10.0% |
| Colorado State | 1-0 | 3 | 3¢ / 4¢ | 5.0% |
| Utah State | 0-1 | 3 | 1¢ / 2¢ | 3.0% |
| Oregon State | 0-1 | 4 | 3¢ / 4¢ | 2.8% |
Panel figures are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
All eight rows carry a real bid and a real ask, which is rarer than it sounds on a market this small. Add the eight asks and you get exactly 100 cents. Add the eight bids and you get 92. Buying the entire field at the offer costs a dollar to win a dollar before the exchange's fee, and selling the entire field at the bid returns 92 cents, so the round trip across this board costs eight cents. Rescale the midpoints so they add to 100 and Boise State is priced at 48.4%, against the panel's 36.5%. That 12-point gap is the largest disagreement on the page.
The most interesting row is not the favorite, though. It is Washington State, which the market prices at 5.7% of the field and the panel puts at 10.0%. Seven of the eight seats landed between 9.5 and 10.5 on the Cougars. Such tight agreement is unusual for a team that just lost the Apple Cup 24-10 and drew only three home league games. The market has Fresno State priced 74% above Washington State; the panel has the two within three-tenths of a point.
Every Seat's Number
The same eight teams with all eight seats shown. The de-vigged column rescales Kalshi's midpoints so they add to 100, which is the fair way to hold a price against a probability. The blend is the median of the eight seats after a revision round in which each model read the other seven's reasoning anonymously and could change its mind.
| Outcome | De-vigged | Panel | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | Gemini Pro | Grok | GLM | Kimi | DeepSeek |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State | 48.4% | 36.5% | 35.0% | 36.0% | 34.0% | 39.5% | 37.0% | 35.0% | 39.0% | 38.0% |
| San Diego State | 16.1% | 18.5% | 19.0% | 19.0% | 19.0% | 20.5% | 17.0% | 18.0% | 17.0% | 18.0% |
| Texas State | 10.9% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 12.5% | 14.0% | 15.0% | 14.0% | 15.0% | 13.0% | 14.0% |
| Fresno State | 9.9% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 12.0% |
| Washington State | 5.7% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Colorado State | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Utah State | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 0.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Oregon State | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% |
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: Claude Fable 90% on 2,542 graded calls · Claude Opus 89% on 2,681 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 88% on 2,658 graded calls · Gemini 87% on 8,145 graded calls · Grok 85% on 6,673 graded calls · GLM 84% on 3,747 graded calls · Kimi 87% on 4,074 graded calls · DeepSeek 84% on 3,850 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
That percentage is the share of each seat's settled calls our public grading rules scored correct, recomputed daily across every market this panel has ever priced. No Pac-12 contract has ever settled on that ledger, because this league played its first football weekend as an eight-team conference four days ago. This board is the first entry in that record.
Model estimates generated September 9, 2026, price-blind. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice or trading advice. Models are frequently wrong, and the market price reflects real traders' money. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange; 18+, availability varies by state. Every number here gets graded in public once this market settles, on the full graded scoreboard.
More live boards from the same panel: the MAC championship board, the other conference title race the panel scored blind, where Western Michigan leads at 33.5¢ · the national championship board, where Ohio State leads the 50-team field at 12.5¢ · playoff qualifiers, where Notre Dame leads at 82¢ to reach the 12-team bracket · every Kalshi college football board, scored weekly. Prices fetched September 9, 2026.
San Diego State, Texas State And The Chase
San Diego State is the panel's clear second at 18.5%, and it is the one team whose case rests on defense. The Aztecs allowed 200 points across 13 games last season, the fewest in this group, and finished at plus-143 on the scoreboard. They also beat Boise State 17-7 in November, they drew four home league games, and Sean Lewis is in his third season. Their only frightening trip is to Boise on November 21, which is the last night of the round robin and, by the conference's own calendar, the night the two championship game participants are decided.
Texas State is the more interesting price. The Bobcats carry the highest end-of-2025 Elo rating in the conference at 1606, ahead of Boise State's 1594, and they scored 474 points last season, the most of any member. They drew four home league games. They also lost 59-7 at Texas in Week 1, which is the kind of scoreline that moves a casual read and almost no sharp one, because Texas is ranked fourth in this week's AP poll.
The panel puts Texas State at 14.0% against a de-vigged 10.9%, and seven of the eight seats sat at 13 or higher. Grok, which is 85% on 6,673 graded calls, argued the gap is a category error:
I sit above the media poll on Texas State: conference-best 2025 Elo (1606), Kinne continuity, four home league games, and a 7-59 at No. 4 Texas that carries near-zero predictive weight.
— Grok
One thing the record cannot help with: Texas State has not played a single one of the other seven teams in any season since 2019. It arrives from the Sun Belt with the best rating in the league and no shared history, which is exactly the condition under which markets and models disagree the most.
Dark Horses The Panel Won't Dismiss
The media poll that opened this season had Washington State fifth, and the market agrees: fifth by price. The panel does not. It has the Cougars level with Fresno State, a team the market prices 74% higher. Kirby Moore is in his first year, the team went 7-6 last season at plus-30, and the Apple Cup loss was to a Washington team ranked 19th this week. GLM put the Cougars at 12.0%, the highest number any seat gave them, and pointed at that game as the evidence rather than the excuse.
Colorado State is another team the panel will not write off, at 5.0% against a de-vigged 3.6%. The Rams were 2-10 last season with a minus-148 point differential, the worst in this group. They also just beat Wyoming 35-13 in Jim Mora's first game in charge at Colorado State, they host Boise State on November 7, and they are one of only two members that opened 1-0.
Oregon State is the only team besides the favorite that the panel prices below the market, at 2.8% against 3.6%. The Beavers were also 2-10 last season, at minus-135, and they carry the lowest end-of-2025 Elo rating in the conference at 1150. They are starting over under JaMarcus Shephard, who arrives with a 0-0 career head-coaching record. They did draw four home league games, which is the whole reason the number is not lower.
And then there is Utah State, at a penny bid and two cents asked, the cheapest contract on the board. Bronco Mendenhall's team lost at home to Idaho State despite outgaining the Bengals 407 yards to 241, undone by four interceptions and five Idaho State field goals. The result ended a six-game Utah State winning streak in the series and was Idaho State's first win in Logan since 2000. Six of the eight seats still priced the Aggies above the market, because outgaining an opponent by 166 yards and losing on turnovers is a different failure from being outclassed.
Where The Panel Changed Its Mind
Each seat wrote its board alone, then read the other seven anonymously and got one chance to revise. Three moves are worth reading.
The two seats furthest apart on Boise State moved seven points each, toward one another. Gemini Pro came down from 46.5% to 39.5%; Grok came up from 30.0% to 37.0%. Claude Fable, which had opened at 41.0%, cut to 35.0% and explained why it would not go anywhere near the market's number:
I part with Forecaster C's 46.5 because the card's own head-to-head cuts against a coronation: Fresno won 30-7 ON the blue turf in 2025 and SDSU won the 2025 meeting 17-7, so Boise's two toughest remaining games include a venue where it just got blown out.
— Claude Fable
GLM moved the other way and made the biggest jump of the round, raising Texas State from 5.0% to 15.0% once the Elo rating and the home-game allocation were laid out by other seats.
The one that did not move is the one worth keeping. Three seats had opened with Fresno State at seven or eight on the strength of a 39-0 loss at USC. Claude Opus sat at 11.5% before the round, went to 12.0% after it, and said why:
Road blowouts at top-15 teams are among the least predictive results in the sport, and Fresno went 9-4 with +91 and beat Boise 30-7 in 2025 — I will not reprice a season on one September scoreboard.
— Claude Opus
The revision round tightened the group considerably. Before it, the eight seats spread across 16.5 points on Boise State, from 30.0 to 46.5. After it, the widest gap was 5.5. That convergence is worth watching rather than trusting, because a panel that agrees with itself is not the same thing as a panel that is right.
What Would Change The Panel's Mind
Every seat was asked which single development would most reshape its board. In the revision round all eight named a Boise State road game, and five named the same one.
- Boise State At Fresno State, October 10. Fresno State won this game 30-7 in Boise last November and now gets it at home. A Boise loss here puts the top seed, and with it the hosting right on December 4, in genuine doubt. This is the game five of the eight seats singled out.
- Boise State At Washington State, October 24. The panel's largest overweight against the market plays the panel's largest underweight, in Pullman. A Washington State win would validate the 10% number and crack Boise State's margin for error at the same time.
- San Diego State At Boise State, November 21. The last night of the round robin, between the top two prices on the board, and the night the championship game field is set. On a round-robin tiebreak this is close to a play-in.
- A Quarterback Injury At Boise State. Two seats named this in the first round as the single largest risk to their board. The starter is Maddux Madsen, who threw for 2,334 yards and 18 touchdowns in 2025 and went 15-of-29 for 181 yards and three touchdowns at Oregon in Week 1. One of those two seats said the probability would move to San Diego State and Fresno State rather than spread evenly down the field. With seven league games and no divisions, one injury hands the top seed, and the December home field, to whoever is second at that moment.
When This Settles
| Date | What happens |
|---|---|
| Saturday, November 21, 2026 | Week 12 ends, the seven-game round robin is complete and the two championship game participants are set |
| Saturday, November 28, 2026 | Flex week: a home-and-home among the eight members that does not count in the standings |
| Friday, December 4, 2026 | Pac-12 Championship Game, at the home venue of the top seed, on CBS and Paramount+ |
Kalshi's contracts settle on the winner of that game, not on who finishes first in the standings, which means a team can go 7-0 in the round robin and pay zero. Kalshi expects them to expire on December 6, 2026, two days after the game, and lists January 3, 2027 as the latest possible expiration, with an early close once a winner is declared. Prices on this page are as of September 9, 2026, and the board gets re-scored here when the story moves.
If you would rather price these teams one Saturday at a time, the sportsbook side of the question is on the live odds screen, where you can shop the number across every major book.
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The Bottom Line
The Pac-12 rebuilt itself into the cleanest title race in the sport. Eight teams, seven games, everybody plays everybody, and the answer arrives on November 21. In a format that strips out every schedule excuse, the one advantage left is the home game, and Boise State drew four of them, including every other team that also got four, with the December 4 game as a fifth if it finishes first.
The market has paid for all of that and then some. Forty-six cents is close to half the field for a team that has not won a game this season and lost to two of these same programs by a combined 47-14 last November. Eight models looked at the identical schedule, agreed the draw is real, and still stopped 12 points short.
Both readings are on the record now, and the second one is not punditry, because it gets graded in public the moment this market settles.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Albertsons Stadium photo by Ken Lund from Reno, Nevada, USA, licensed CC BY-SA 2.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
