TL;DR
The panel's top of the board: Georgia (13%), Ohio St. (12%), Oregon (8%) (ties shown at equal blends in the table). Every verdict below was made price-blind, and every one gets graded against the real settlement on our scoreboard.
Fall camp is opening and Kalshi already prices 50 programs for the January 2027 national title, with Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Texas bunched at the top. The models scored this board from program quality and structural factors, with an explicit instruction not to lean on specific roster claims they cannot verify (the transfer portal has been busy, and remembered depth charts are exactly the kind of fact that goes stale).
What The Models Were Given
For this board the models ran knowledge-only with an anti-misattribution instruction: no clean roster ledger exists mid-portal, so they were told to reason from program tiers and base rates rather than specific player-team claims, and that posture is disclosed here rather than hidden. Eight model seats were asked on every outcome; where a seat's verdict did not return, its table cell shows an em dash and the blend averages the seats that answered.
Where The Machines Split From The Money
Notre Dame: market 13¢, AI blend 5% (8 points below the crowd). Gemini 3.1 Pro: "Notre Dame typically lacks the elite roster depth of top SEC and Big Ten programs to win four consecutive playoff games without a bye."
Indiana: market 9¢, AI blend 1.9% (7 points below the crowd). Gemini 3.1 Pro: "Indiana historically lacks the elite recruiting, depth, and institutional resources necessary to win a national championship against top-tier programs in the expanded playoff era." [Editor's note: this model's premise is wrong — Indiana won the 2025-26 College Football Playoff national championship in January 2026 — this premise is out of date. The verdict stands as published and will be graded as such.]
Alabama: market 3¢, AI blend 8% (5 points above the crowd). Gemini 3.1 Pro: "Alabama remains an elite recruiting powerhouse and structural contender, giving them strong base-rate odds to navigate the expanded playoff despite recent coaching transitions."
Miami (FL): market 8¢, AI blend 3% (5 points below the crowd). ChatGPT (GPT-5.5): "Miami is a strong-brand ACC contender with playoff upside, but national titles remain concentrated among a few deeper elite programs."
The Full Board
| Outcome | Kalshi | AI blend | ChatGPT (GPT-5.5) | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | Gemini 3.1 Pro | GLM 5.2 | Kimi K3 | DeepSeek V4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 10¢ | 13% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 18% | 14% | — | 18% |
| Ohio St. | 12¢ | 12% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 10% | — | 8% |
| Oregon | 11¢ | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 12% | 10% | 9% | — | 7% |
| Texas | 12¢ | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 12% | 9% | — | 6% |
| Alabama | 3¢ | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 12% | 9% | — | 8% |
| Clemson | 1¢ | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 9% | 4% | 4% | — | 6% |
| Notre Dame | 13¢ | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 5% | — | 4% |
| Michigan | 2¢ | 5% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | — | 6% |
| LSU | 6¢ | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 4% | — | 2% |
| Penn St. | 2¢ | 4% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 4% | — | 4% |
| Miami (FL) | 8¢ | 3% | 1.8% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 2% | — | 2% |
| Texas A&M | 4¢ | 3% | 1.8% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | — | 2% |
| Ole Miss | 3¢ | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 2% | — | 1.5% |
| USC | 2¢ | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 3% | — | 2% |
| Tennessee | 2¢ | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 1.5% | — | 3% |
| Oklahoma | 2¢ | 2% | 1.5% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 4% | — | 2% |
| Florida | 2¢ | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1.0% | 1.5% | — | 1.2% |
| Indiana | 9¢ | 1.9% | 0.6% | 5% | 6% | 2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | — | 0.1% |
| Florida St. | 1¢ | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2% | 2% | 1.5% | — | 2% |
| Texas Tech | 3¢ | 1.6% | 0.6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | — | 0.6% |
| Auburn | 1¢ | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | — | 1.2% |
| Missouri | 1¢ | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | — | 1.0% |
| Washington | 1¢ | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | — | 1.8% |
| Utah | 1¢ | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | — | 1.2% |
| South Carolina | 1¢ | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 1.5% | — | 1.5% |
| Kansas St. | 1¢ | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | — | 0.5% |
| Arizona St. | 1¢ | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| BYU | 1¢ | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | — | 0.2% |
| Louisville | 1¢ | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | — | 1.5% |
| TCU | 1¢ | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | — | 1.5% |
| SMU | 1¢ | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.5% | — | 0.7% |
| Baylor | 1¢ | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 3% | 0.2% | 0.8% | — | 0.5% |
| Iowa | 1¢ | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | — | 0.3% |
| Illinois | 1¢ | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | — | 0.2% |
| Arizona | 1¢ | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 2% | 0.2% | 0.8% | — | 0.5% |
| North Carolina St. | 1¢ | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Pittsburgh | 1¢ | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | — | 1.5% |
| Georgia Tech | 1¢ | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% | — | 0.2% |
| Virginia Tech | 1¢ | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Oklahoma St. | 1¢ | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| Houston | 1¢ | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Tulane | 1¢ | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Arkansas | 1¢ | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% | — | 0.5% |
| California | 1¢ | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | — | 0.3% |
| Vanderbilt | 1¢ | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | — | 0.1% |
| Kentucky | 1¢ | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | — | 0.5% |
| Virginia | 1¢ | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | 0.1% |
| James Madison | 1¢ | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Miami (OH) | 1¢ | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| North Texas | 1¢ | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Model estimates generated July 26, 2026, price-blind. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange; 18+, availability varies by state.
Related Verdicts
FAQ
Why do the model percentages differ from the Kalshi price?
The models never see the price. When they disagree with the crowd, one side is wrong, and we grade every verdict against real settlements on our scoreboard.
Are model verdicts betting advice?
No. Model verdicts are model estimates, not betting or financial advice. Treat them as one input among many and make your own decisions.
What data did the models see?
For this board the models ran knowledge-only with an anti-misattribution instruction: no clean roster ledger exists mid-portal, so they were told to reason from program tiers and base rates rather than specific player-team claims, and that posture is disclosed here rather than hidden.
