This is the weekly home for college football on Kalshi: what is live on the exchange, and what our price-blind AI panel says about the boards it scores. It rebuilds every Thursday with the week's game boards up top.
The panel scores the national title, Heisman and four Power-4 conference boards. Win totals, the Group of Five and Pac-12 races, playoff qualifiers and the weekly game markets are listed at the market's own prices, unscored — where that is the case, the table says so.
Board last rebuilt: September 10, 2026. Prices on this page refresh at every rebuild; panel verdict timestamps are noted per board.
These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Every number gets graded in public once its market settles, on the full graded scoreboard.
New to college football on Kalshi? Start with the full market map and price translation, then come back for the numbers.
This Week On The Board
This section is the Week 2 board as it stood at 9:14 a.m. ET on Thursday, September 10, before those games kicked off. The biggest result since: Texas beat Ohio State 24-23 on September 12 after trailing 23-3, and by early September 13 the title board had moved Texas to about 15 cents and Ohio State to about 10 (the graded Ohio State vs Texas odds page has the full move). Every price below is still the September 10 snapshot; the Week 3 rebuild, with Week 2 collapsed into the track record, lands Thursday, September 17.
Most of the 120 boards were not questions — 41 of them priced the favorite at 95 cents or better. The ones that were, with the market's favorite and its price:
| Game | Kickoff window | Market favorite |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio St. Vs Texas | Saturday night | Texas, 53.5¢ |
| Oklahoma Vs Michigan | Saturday, early window | Oklahoma, 66.5¢ |
| Oregon Vs Oklahoma St. | Saturday, early window | Oregon, 93.5¢ |
| Georgia Southern Vs Clemson | Saturday night | Clemson, 90.5¢ |
| Alabama Vs Kentucky | Saturday | Alabama, 79.5¢ |
| Mississippi St. Vs Minnesota | Saturday | Mississippi St., 50.5¢ |
| Arizona St. Vs Texas A&M | Saturday, early window | Texas A&M, 84.5¢ |
| Missouri Vs Kansas | Friday night | Missouri, 66.5¢ |
| Rutgers Vs Boston College | Friday night | Boston College, 60.5¢ |
The panel does not price game contracts; those are the market's own. Its numbers reach the slate through the futures boards, and Ohio St. vs Texas moved the most of them at once: Ohio State was the one team the title market and the panel agreed on (12.5¢ against a 12.1% blend), and Texas was a 10.5-cent title contract against 8.4% and a 17.5-cent SEC contract against 13.2%.
The biggest market-vs-panel gaps on the page, two weeks in:
- Miami, ACC Champion, 63.5¢ Against A 21.4% Blend. A 42.1-point gap, the largest on the page, and it widened for the second straight week from 56.5¢ in August. No seat priced Miami above 23%.
- Texas Tech, Big 12 Champion, 48.5¢ Against 16.1%. A 32.4-point gap, narrowing from 52.5¢ last week. The panel's Big 12 buys are the same three names: Utah (13.7% against 8.5¢), TCU (8.1% against 2.5¢) and Iowa State (7.4% against half a cent).
- Georgia, SEC Champion, 25.5¢ Against 18%. The gap closed to 7.5 points from 10.5. LSU, 15.5¢ against 7.9%, is now the SEC's biggest fade; Texas A&M, 3¢ against 11%, its biggest buy.
- The Title Board's Top Is Not The Market's Top. Georgia leads the blend at 12.6% and trades 7.5¢, eighth on the market board. Indiana (9.5¢ against 1.9%) is the biggest title fade, Miami (9.5¢ against 3.1%) second. Alabama, 8.2% against 2.5¢, is the board's cheapest real buy.
- Heisman: The Market Has A New Favorite, And The Panel Does Not Buy Him. Darian Mensah went 8.5¢ to 16.5¢ in a week; the blend grades him 7.5%, no seat above 8.8, the board's largest gap. Julian Sayin holds at 6.5¢ against 10.5%, still the clearest buy.
A method note that doubles as honesty: the panel prices these boards blind, from settlement structure and verified season records, so a 42-point gap against a crowded favorite is a claim about championship-game variance, not inside information about anyone's September.
Track Record
Each prior week's section collapses into one row here once the page rebuilds; every call is graded against the settled market on the scoreboard.
| Week | Board | The calls | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | September 3 board | Eight contested game boards listed at the market's prices, unscored by the panel; the panel's futures calls were tested through Georgia Tech (a 69.5¢ favorite at Colorado, an 8.9% ACC buy vs 2.5¢), Clemson (13.8% ACC buy vs 6.5¢, at LSU) and Notre Dame (5% for the title vs 12.5¢, over Wisconsin) | Six of the eight market favorites won; Colorado beat Georgia Tech and San Jose St. beat Eastern Michigan. LSU beat Clemson (Clemson's ACC price fell to 1.5¢); Notre Dame beat Wisconsin. Every futures call stays open. |
| Preseason | August 3 board, prices refreshed August 29 | Fade Miami in the ACC (56.5¢ vs 21.4%) and Texas Tech in the Big 12 (49.5¢ vs 16.1%); Georgia atop the SEC (18% vs 26.5¢) and the title board (12.6% vs 9.5¢); fade Notre Dame for the title (12.5¢ vs 5%); Julian Sayin over CJ Carr for the Heisman (10.5% vs 6.5¢; Carr 4.5% vs 12.5¢) | Open. Conference boards settle by December 6, the Heisman in mid-December, the title on January 25. |
What Is Live On Kalshi For College Football
| Market | Contracts | Panel board? |
|---|---|---|
| National Champion (KXNCAAF-27) | 50 teams | Scored, full board |
| Heisman Trophy (KXHEISMAN-27) | 38 names | Scored, full board |
| Power-4 Conference Champions | 4 boards, 67 teams | Scored below |
| Group-Of-5 + Pac-12 Champions | 6 boards | Market prices below |
| Team Win Totals (KXNCAAFWINS) | 69 team ladders | Unscored |
| Playoff Qualifiers (KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26) | 50 teams | Market prices below |
| Undefeated Season (KXNCAAFUNDEFEATED-26) | 27 teams | Market prices below |
| Early-Season Games (KXNCAAFGAME) | 239 games | Weekly picks in season |
Smaller boards also live: conference-of-the-champion, AP Poll ranking markets, playoff seeds, head-to-head season wins and a coach-departure board.
The Conference Championship Boards
The four Power-4 winner boards are where the panel and the crowd disagree most. Each contract settles on the winner of that conference's championship game in early December. Seven seats priced the four races price-blind on August 3, then revised after reading each other's reasoning; an eighth seat failed to return a valid board and is excluded.
SEC Championship Board
812,091 contracts traded.
| Team | Market | AI blend | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 25.5¢ | 18.0% | -7.5 |
| Texas | 17.5¢ | 13.2% | -4.3 |
| LSU | 15.5¢ | 7.9% | -7.6 |
| Oklahoma | 8.5¢ | 8.1% | -0.4 |
| Alabama | 8.5¢ | 12.2% | +3.7 |
| Ole Miss | 3.5¢ | 9.1% | +5.6 |
| Texas A&M | 3.0¢ | 11.0% | +8.0 |
| Florida | 2.5¢ | 1.9% | -0.6 |
| Tennessee | 2.5¢ | 5.5% | +3.0 |
| Missouri | 1.5¢ | 3.8% | +2.3 |
| Auburn | 1.0¢ | 2.0% | +1.0 |
| Vanderbilt | 0.5¢ | 3.3% | +2.8 |
| South Carolina | 0.5¢ | 1.1% | +0.6 |
| Kentucky | 0.5¢ | 1.0% | +0.5 |
| Mississippi St. | 0.5¢ | 0.9% | +0.4 |
| Arkansas | 0.5¢ | 1.0% | +0.5 |
Big Ten Championship Board
754,809 contracts traded.
| Team | Market | AI blend | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio St. | 30.5¢ | 22.8% | -7.7 |
| Oregon | 23.5¢ | 18.8% | -4.7 |
| Indiana | 18.5¢ | 14.5% | -4.0 |
| USC | 5.5¢ | 5.7% | +0.2 |
| Penn St. | 5.5¢ | 6.8% | +1.3 |
| Michigan | 3.5¢ | 11.2% | +7.7 |
| Iowa | 2.5¢ | 3.7% | +1.2 |
| UCLA | 1.5¢ | 0.5% | -1.0 |
| Washington | 1.5¢ | 3.8% | +2.3 |
| Nebraska | 0.5¢ | 2.0% | +1.5 |
| Northwestern | 0.5¢ | 1.2% | +0.7 |
| Wisconsin | 0.5¢ | 0.9% | +0.4 |
| Minnesota | 0.5¢ | 1.8% | +1.3 |
| Michigan St. | 0.5¢ | 1.1% | +0.6 |
| Illinois | 0.5¢ | 3.4% | +2.9 |
| Maryland | 0.5¢ | 0.9% | +0.4 |
| Rutgers | 0.5¢ | 0.8% | +0.3 |
| Purdue | 0.5¢ | 0.3% | -0.2 |
Big 12 Championship Board
2,081,689 contracts traded.
| Team | Market | AI blend | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech | 48.5¢ | 16.1% | -32.4 |
| BYU | 13.5¢ | 13.6% | +0.1 |
| Utah | 8.5¢ | 13.7% | +5.2 |
| Kansas St. | 5.5¢ | 6.2% | +0.7 |
| Houston | 4.5¢ | 9.2% | +4.7 |
| Arizona St. | 3.5¢ | 7.1% | +3.6 |
| Arizona | 2.5¢ | 4.9% | +2.4 |
| TCU | 2.5¢ | 8.1% | +5.6 |
| Colorado | 1.5¢ | 1.5% | 0.0 |
| Oklahoma St. | 1.5¢ | 0.7% | -0.8 |
| Baylor | 1.5¢ | 3.0% | +1.5 |
| UCF | 1.5¢ | 1.9% | +0.4 |
| West Virginia | 0.5¢ | 1.1% | +0.6 |
| Iowa St. | 0.5¢ | 7.4% | +6.9 |
| Kansas | 0.5¢ | 2.1% | +1.6 |
| Cincinnati | 0.5¢ | 3.2% | +2.7 |
ACC Championship Board
969,339 contracts traded.
| Team | Market | AI blend | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (FL) | 63.5¢ | 21.4% | -42.1 |
| SMU | 12.5¢ | 9.1% | -3.4 |
| Louisville | 7.5¢ | 9.2% | +1.7 |
| Virginia | 5.5¢ | 1.1% | -4.4 |
| Virginia Tech | 3.5¢ | 1.5% | -2.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 3.5¢ | 4.7% | +1.2 |
| Georgia Tech | 2.5¢ | 8.9% | +6.4 |
| California | 1.5¢ | 1.9% | +0.4 |
| Clemson | 1.5¢ | 13.8% | +12.3 |
| Florida St. | 0.5¢ | 5.4% | +4.9 |
| North Carolina | 0.5¢ | 2.7% | +2.2 |
| Syracuse | 0.5¢ | 1.1% | +0.6 |
| North Carolina St. | 0.5¢ | 5.2% | +4.7 |
| Wake Forest | 0.5¢ | 5.5% | +5.0 |
| Duke | 0.5¢ | 6.6% | +6.1 |
| Stanford | 0.5¢ | 0.7% | +0.2 |
| Boston College | 0.5¢ | 1.1% | +0.6 |
Reading The Four Boards
ACC: Miami trades at 63.5¢, the steepest favorite on any conference board. The panel's blend comes back at 21.4% — no seat priced the Hurricanes higher than 23%. A runner-up season is evidence about last year's team, and a 17-team league decided by one December game leaves too many paths for a November upset to reroute it.
Big 12: Texas Tech trades at 48.5¢ against a 16.1% blend. The panel spread real probability to Utah (13.7% against 8.5¢) and BYU (13.6% against 13.5¢), reading Utah's 11-2 season as closer in class than the 40-point price gap implies.
SEC: The flattest race on the exchange. Georgia tops the blend at 18% against 25.5¢, with Texas (13.2%) and Alabama (12.2%) bunched behind. Sixteen teams and a brutal schedule mean any October loss can cost a title-game berth.
Big Ten: Ohio State tops the blend at 22.8% against 30.5¢, a mild fade. Indiana trades 18.5¢ after a 16-0 season; two seats made it their round-one favorite before settling behind Ohio State on the argument that a perfect season's roster doesn't return intact. Michigan, 11.2% against 3.5¢, is the panel's quiet value call.
Every Seat's Number: The Top Of Each Race
The narrow boards above are the summary; this is the full accounting for the top three contracts in each conference, every seat's probability next to the crowd's price.
| Team (Conference) | Market | GPT | Gemini | Claude | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | GLM | Kimi | Blend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia (SEC) | 25.5¢ | 19 | 19 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 18% |
| Texas (SEC) | 17.5¢ | 14 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 9 | 13 | 13% |
| LSU (SEC) | 15.5¢ | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 8% |
| Ohio St. (Big Ten) | 30.5¢ | 24 | 24 | 24 | 22 | 24 | 19 | 23 | 23% |
| Oregon (Big Ten) | 23.5¢ | 19 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 18 | 19% |
| Indiana (Big Ten) | 18.5¢ | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 17 | 14 | 14% |
| Texas Tech (Big 12) | 48.5¢ | 17 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 17 | 14 | 16 | 16% |
| BYU (Big 12) | 13.5¢ | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 14% |
| Utah (Big 12) | 8.5¢ | 15 | 16 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14% |
| Miami (FL) (ACC) | 63.5¢ | 23 | 22 | 23 | 22 | 23 | 18 | 19 | 21% |
| SMU (ACC) | 12.5¢ | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9% |
| Louisville (ACC) | 7.5¢ | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9% |
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: GPT 86% on 9,450 graded calls · Gemini 87% on 8,358 graded calls · GLM 85% on 3,796 graded calls · Kimi 87% on 4,139 graded calls · DeepSeek 84% on 3,911 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
The table above is a set of model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. The graded records cover every seat with at least 50 settled markets across our whole verdict lane, which is why a seat can appear in the record line while missing from this particular run, and the reverse.
Keep going: Heisman Trophy board · Darian Mensah leads at 16.5¢; Super Bowl 2027 board · Los Angeles Rams tops the market at 16.5¢; Kalshi NFL picks hub · the pro football version of this page. Prices as of 2026-09-10.
The National Championship Board: Fading Indiana And Miami
The panel's headline calls are fades: Indiana (1.9% against 9.5¢) and Miami (3.1% against 9.5¢) are the largest negative gaps on the board. The blend's own top is Georgia at 12.6% against 7.5¢, with Alabama (8.2% against 2.5¢) as its loudest value call. Full team-by-team table and every model's number: national championship odds board.
| Team | Market | AI blend | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio St. | 12.5¢ | 12.1% | -0.4 |
| Oregon | 10.5¢ | 8.4% | -2.1 |
| Texas | 10.5¢ | 8.4% | -2.1 |
| Notre Dame | 10.5¢ | 5.0% | -5.5 |
| Miami (FL) | 9.5¢ | 3.1% | -6.4 |
| Indiana | 9.5¢ | 1.9% | -7.6 |
| LSU | 8.5¢ | 4.4% | -4.1 |
| Georgia | 7.5¢ | 12.6% | +5.1 |
| Oklahoma | 3.5¢ | 2.5% | -1.0 |
| Texas Tech | 3.5¢ | 1.6% | -1.9 |
The Heisman Board: Sayin Over The Market's Favorite
The panel's favorite is Julian Sayin at a 10.5% blend against 6.5¢; the market's favorite, Darian Mensah at 16.5¢, grades 7.5%. Arch Manning, 8.7% against 8.5¢, is the one top name priced where the panel has him. Full board: Heisman odds board.
| Player | Market | AI blend | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darian Mensah | 16.5¢ | 7.5% | -9.0 |
| Arch Manning | 8.5¢ | 8.7% | +0.2 |
| CJ Carr | 8.5¢ | 4.5% | -4.0 |
| Jeremiah Smith | 6.5¢ | 3.6% | -2.9 |
| Julian Sayin | 6.5¢ | 10.5% | +4.0 |
| Malachi Toney | 5.5¢ | 0.7% | -4.8 |
| Sam Leavitt | 5.5¢ | 0.8% | -4.7 |
| Trinidad Chambliss | 5.5¢ | 6.0% | +0.5 |
More live boards from the same panel: CFB National Championship Odds carries the full title board where the panel fades Indiana and Miami, Heisman Odds: The Board vs The Model tracks the race where the panel ranks Sayin above the market's favorite, and the standing Kalshi NFL picks page runs the same weekly rebuild for the pro slate — all priced live, with top rungs quoted in cents (the title favorite trades at 12.5¢).
Playoff Qualifiers And The Undefeated Shelf
The playoff qualifier market prices each team's chance of making the 12-team field. The undefeated board, covered in full on the undefeated odds page, prices perfection itself.
| Team | Qualify price | Team | Qualify price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | 83.0¢ | Miami (FL) | 81.5¢ |
| Ohio St. | 76.5¢ | Georgia | 74.0¢ |
| Oregon | 71.5¢ | Indiana | 71.0¢ |
| Texas | 67.0¢ | Texas Tech | 60.5¢ |
| LSU | 53.5¢ | Oklahoma | 40.5¢ |
The Group Of Five And Pac-12 Boards
Six more conference winner boards trade smaller. The panel has not scored these; the prices below are the market's own.
| Conference | Volume | Favorite | Second choice |
|---|---|---|---|
| American | 227,725 | Memphis (18.0¢) | Navy (15.0¢) |
| Mountain West | 172,091 | North Dakota St. (26.5¢) | New Mexico (25.5¢) |
| Pac-12 | 234,815 | Boise St. (46.5¢) | San Diego St. (15.5¢) |
| MAC | 223,462 | Western Michigan (23.0¢) | Toledo (18.5¢) |
| Sun Belt | 150,510 | James Madison (18.5¢) | Old Dominion (15.5¢) |
| Conference USA | 135,689 | Louisiana Tech (44.5¢) | Liberty (20.0¢) |
Early-Season Game Markets Are Already Live
Kalshi lists single-game markets for every FBS game and most FCS ones, several weeks out. This page's Thursday rebuild carries the week's contested ones up top at the market's own prices. If you also price these games at sportsbooks, the live college football odds screen shows the number across every major book.
| Game | Market favorite |
|---|---|
| Florida A&M Vs Miami (FL) | Miami (FL) (99.0¢) |
| Norfolk St. Vs Virginia | Virginia (99.0¢) |
| Villanova Vs Louisville | Louisville (98.5¢) |
| Richmond Vs North Carolina St. | North Carolina St. (97.5¢) |
| Rutgers Vs Boston College | Boston College (60.5¢) |
| Missouri Vs Kansas | Missouri (66.5¢) |
| Oklahoma Vs Michigan | Oklahoma (66.5¢) |
| Howard Vs Indiana | Indiana (99.0¢) |
| East Tennessee St. Vs North Carolina | North Carolina (98.5¢) |
| Oregon Vs Oklahoma St. | Oregon (93.5¢) |
| Arizona St. Vs Texas A&M | Texas A&M (84.5¢) |
| Penn St. Vs Temple | Penn St. (95.5¢) |
| Wake Forest Vs Purdue | Wake Forest (58.0¢) |
| Washington St. Vs Kansas St. | Kansas St. (89.0¢) |
| Elon Vs Rhode Island | Rhode Island (72.0¢) |
Win Totals: 69 Team Ladders
Every notable program has its own regular-season win-total ladder (KXNCAAFWINS), priced as "N or more wins" contracts across 69 teams. The rung where the price crosses 50 cents is the market's line, and unlike a sportsbook ticket you can sell out of a rung mid-season. For a worked sportsbook-side example, our Big Ten win totals breakdown prices one conference number by number.
Dark Horses The Panel Will Not Dismiss
Four names trade in single digits where at least one seat put real probability: Clemson (1.5¢ ACC, 13.8% blend, the loudest buy on any conference board), Michigan (3.5¢ Big Ten, 11.2% blend), Iowa State (0.5¢ Big 12, 7.4% blend, the largest relative gap on the page) and Alabama (2.5¢ title, 8.2% blend). Sub-10-cent contracts carry wide spreads and settle in five months; these are the panel's honest longshots, not its confident calls.
What Would Move The Panel's Numbers
What could reprice these boards fastest: QB clarity at the top programs (Texas especially), the first AP Poll after Week 1, a late November upset in a championship-game format that reroutes an entire conference board, and the first CFP rankings on November 3. When one fires, the page re-scores on its next Thursday rebuild.
Worked Example: Reading The Edge Column On Kalshi College Football Odds
Every board carries the same three numbers; the Edge column is the blend minus the price.
| Row | Market price | AI blend | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (FL), ACC Champion | 63.5¢ | 21.4% | -42.1 |
| Clemson, ACC Champion | 1.5¢ | 13.8% | +12.3 |
Negative reads as a fade, positive as a buy. Miami's -42.1 says the panel won't pay the crowd's price on the favorite; Clemson's +12.3 says the crowd priced a long shot as finished after the LSU loss, and the panel's pre-kickoff number didn't move. The Edge ignores trading fees and the gap between the shown price and your fill — it is a read, not a pick. Contract payout rules: the college football market guide. What the read is worth: the graded scoreboard.
How These Markets Settle
Each conference contract settles on the winner of that conference's 2026 championship game, with listed expirations in the first week of December. The national title market settles on the January 25, 2027 title game; the Heisman market on the mid-December award announcement. Win totals settle on regular-season wins only.
| Date | What happens | Boards it moves |
|---|---|---|
| August 29, 2026 | First FBS Week 0 kickoffs | Game markets go weekly; win totals start settling into form |
| September 1, 2026 | First full AP Poll cycle of the season | AP rank boards, natty and playoff prices |
| November 3, 2026 | First CFP rankings release | Playoff qualifier and seed boards |
| Championship Weekend, By December 6, 2026 | Conference championship games | All 10 conference boards settle |
| December 2026 (Mid) | Heisman ceremony | The Heisman board settles |
| January 2027 | CFP semifinals and January 25 title game | Finalist and national champion boards settle |
How Weekly Picks Work Here
In season, this page rebuilds every Thursday: the week's game markets and the panel's largest disagreements go up top, the futures boards below, and each prior week collapses into one row of the track-record table. Every model prices every market without seeing the crowd's number first, and every published number is graded in public on the scoreboard once its market settles. The Kalshi NFL picks hub runs the same playbook for pro football.
The Bottom Line
Two weeks in, the panel's read: both crowded Power-4 favorites are overpriced, Georgia is the honest top of both the SEC and national boards, and the Heisman market has the wrong favorite. Weekly picks run every Thursday; Week 3 replaces this snapshot on September 17. Everything here is a set of model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice, and event contracts involve risk.
More on this: College Football Week 2 Predictions: The Machines Won't Take Texas · College Football Playoff Semifinal Odds · Broncos Vs Chiefs TD Props: 3 Mispriced Kalshi Plays For MNF · Giants Vs Rams Odds: 71,000 Contracts Bought, Then Dumped · Kalshi Monday Night Football Odds: AI Fades The Chiefs
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