The trade deadline is July 31, which makes this the last week the World Series board means what it says. Kalshi prices all 30 teams; we handed seven AI models the live standings (Brewers 64-38, Braves and Rays leading their divisions, the Dodgers lurking) and asked each one, price-blind, who actually wins it. Here is the board the deadline is about to scramble.
The Market
| Venue | Kalshi — a CFTC-regulated exchange (18+; availability varies by state, as of July 2026) |
| The event | "Pro Baseball Champion" — 30 yes/no contracts, one per team |
| Prices | Live Kalshi last-trade prices as of July 24, 2026 |
| Protocol | 7 AI models, each scoring every team WITHOUT seeing any market price |
How To Read This Board
Each model saw the July 24 standings and each team's roster reality, but no market prices. A positive gap means the AI panel likes the team more than the Kalshi crowd; negative means the crowd is paying for something the machines don't see. Deadline note: every number below is a pre-July-31 snapshot; a big trade moves both columns.
Where The Machines Split From The Money
L.A. Dodgers: market 33¢, AI blend 18% (15 points below the crowd). GLM 5.2: "The Dodgers hold MLB's best record (65-38), giving them a strong playoff position, but MLB's short-series format keeps any team's title odds below 20%."
N.Y. Yankees: market 13¢, AI blend 8% (6 points below the crowd). Claude Fable: "Strong Yankees team but trailing Rays, likely wild card; roughly playoff-lock odds times ~8% postseason gauntlet against Dodgers/Brewers-class favorites."
Milwaukee: market 9¢, AI blend 14% (5 points above the crowd). DeepSeek V4: "Brewers at 64-38 have the NL's second-best record, a likely bye, and strong win projection, giving them roughly a 19% title chance."
Tampa Bay: market 4¢, AI blend 8% (4 points above the crowd). GLM 5.2: "The Rays lead the AL East with a strong 59-43 record, but baseball's postseason variance and stronger NL contenders cap their championship odds."
The Full Board: 30 Teams, Seven Models, One Blend
| Team | Kalshi | AI blend | Gap | ChatGPT (GPT-5.5) | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | GLM 5.2 | Kimi K3 | DeepSeek V4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.A. Dodgers | 33¢ | 18% | -15 | 17% | 17% | 19% | 22% | 14% | 17% | 20% |
| Milwaukee | 9¢ | 14% | +5 | 12% | 11% | 13% | 16% | 16% | 11% | 19% |
| Atlanta | 7¢ | 10% | +3 | 10% | 10% | 12% | 9% | 12% | 8% | 10% |
| Tampa Bay | 4¢ | 8% | +4 | 8% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 11% | 8% | 10% |
| N.Y. Yankees | 13¢ | 8% | -6 | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 8% |
| Philadelphia | 6¢ | 5% | -1 | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 4% |
| Chicago Cubs | 3¢ | 5% | +2 | 4% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 2% |
| Chicago White Sox | 3¢ | 4% | +1 | 4% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 4% |
| Boston | 4¢ | 3% | -1 | 4% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| Cleveland | 2¢ | 3% | +1 | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| Houston | 1¢ | 2% | +1 | 3% | 1.2% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 1.5% |
| Seattle | 6¢ | 2% | -4 | 3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1.5% |
| Texas | 3¢ | 2.0% | -1 | 3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Arizona | 1¢ | 2.0% | +1 | — | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Toronto | 1¢ | 1.3% | +0 | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 3% | 0.1% |
| N.Y. Mets | 0¢ | 1.2% | +1 | 1.2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| San Diego | 1¢ | 1.1% | +0 | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Minnesota | 1¢ | 1.0% | +0 | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Pittsburgh | 1¢ | 1.0% | +0 | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% |
| Detroit | 2¢ | 0.9% | -1 | 0.4% | 0.8% | 2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Miami | 1¢ | 0.9% | -0 | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| San Francisco | 0¢ | 0.8% | +1 | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| St. Louis | 0¢ | 0.8% | +1 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Kansas City | 0¢ | 0.6% | +1 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.8% |
| Baltimore | 1¢ | 0.6% | -0 | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Cincinnati | 0¢ | 0.6% | +1 | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| L.A. Angels | 0¢ | 0.5% | +0 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Washington | 1¢ | 0.3% | -1 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| A's | 0¢ | 0.3% | +0 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Colorado | 0¢ | 0.2% | +0 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
Model estimates generated July 24, 2026. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money.
FAQ
How can the model percentages differ so much from the Kalshi price?
The models never see the price — that's deliberate. When they disagree with the crowd, one side is wrong, and tracking which side wins over time is exactly what our model scoreboard measures.
Why don't the percentages add up to 100%?
Each model scores every team independently, so small over- or under-shoots accumulate across 30 teams. The relative order and the gaps matter more than the raw sum.
Are model verdicts betting advice?
No. Model verdicts are model estimates of how a market might resolve, not betting or financial advice. Treat them as one input among many and make your own decisions.
