Results, Monday night: Kansas City won 31-10, and all three tickets below settled at zero. Denver scored one touchdown all night, Evan Engram's 19-yard catch from Bo Nix in the first quarter, so RJ Harvey, Courtland Sutton and Jaylen Waddle never found the end zone. Kalshi finalized all three Yes 1+ TD contracts as No. The Chiefs' scores came from Patrick Mahomes (15-yard run), Rashee Rice (13-yard catch) and Kenneth Walker III (a 60-yard run and a 2-yard catch), the two Kansas City names this page passed on. The card was built on Denver finding the end zone against a thin secondary, and Denver did not. The analysis below is as it ran before kickoff.
Just one game left in Week 1, and the schedule-makers saved a good one for last.
Denver at Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes playing his first real football in nine months against the team that swept Kansas City last season. A 14-3 Broncos outfit that led the NFL in sacks, with no player carrying a Week 1 injury designation, walking into an Arrowhead line missing its left tackle. A 43.5 total, which is the market's way of saying it expects this tight and mean.
And on the Broncos vs Chiefs touchdown props, every single Bronco worth owning is priced on Kalshi below the rate he actually found the end zone last year. Not one guy who slipped through the cracks. All of them.
Kalshi prices below are as of September 13, 2026, read off the exchange at 10:30 p.m. ET on Sunday (event 26SEP14DENKC); sportsbook prices are from OddsShopper's live-odds feed at the same minute. Lindy's own read was 5:30 p.m. ET and his prices are noted beside each play. Prices move. Re-check before you trade.
Broncos Vs Chiefs TD Props: The Three Plays
Here are the three, strongest first. The best Monday Night Football touchdown props on this board: RJ Harvey 1+ TD at 24¢ (+296 effective), Courtland Sutton 1+ TD at 27¢ (+252), Jaylen Waddle 1+ TD at 30¢ (+218).
| Play | Kalshi ask | After fee | Effective | Best sportsbook | Take it to | At Lindy's 5:30 read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Harvey, Yes 1+ TD | 24¢ | 25.28¢ | +296 | +310 (Fanatics) | 30¢ | 23¢ (+313) |
| Courtland Sutton, Yes 1+ TD | 27¢ | 28.38¢ | +252 | +250 (Fanatics) | 32¢ | 26¢ (+266) |
| Jaylen Waddle, Yes 1+ TD | 30¢ | 31.47¢ | +218 | +230 (BetRivers) | 34¢ | 29¢ (+228) |
Effective odds are fee-adjusted at Kalshi's published taker rate, then converted to American, because a cent price with the rake still in it is not a number you can bet. Format note, and that is the entire tutorial: Kalshi posts one-sided threshold contracts, so a "1+" contract is your sportsbook's anytime touchdown. The best-sportsbook column is the top US-accessible price on OddsShopper's screen at the same read, and tonight a book pays more than the exchange on two of the three; take whichever venue pays longer.
These are three separate tickets, never a parlay. You cannot build them natively on the exchange anyway, and stitching three correlated plays into one leg stacks their failure on top of itself. Kept separate, one Denver touchdown by any of the three pays for the whole card. The math on that is at the bottom.
How to size it. Treat the three as one thematic position, not three independent shots: whatever you would have risked on "Denver finds the end zone against this secondary," split it across the three contracts. If you want to weight rather than split evenly, weight in the order they are written — most on Harvey, least on Waddle. The point of spreading it is that you do not have to be right about which Bronco scores, and Denver put 25 receiving touchdowns across ten different players last season.
Take the third name on that list for a second, because it is the reason to shop at all. Jaylen Waddle scoring a touchdown is one outcome, on one field, on one night, and tonight BetRivers pays +230 for it, DraftKings and Fanatics pay +210, and the exchange pays +218 after fees. Same touchdown, 20 cents of spread, and the book you happen to open decides which one you get. The live anytime touchdown odds across every book sit on one screen for exactly this reason.
These are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
RJ Harvey Touchdown Odds: Denver's Leading Rusher Is Not Denver's Leading Scorer
Here is a fun way to lose a bar bet. Who led the 2025 Broncos in rushing touchdowns?
Not J.K. Dobbins, who led the team in carries and in rushing yards. Not Bo Nix, though he is a menace down there and took five himself. The answer is the rookie: RJ Harvey.
Seven rushing touchdowns, five receiving, 12 in total, and he found the end zone in nine of his 17 games. That is 52.9%, as the second back, on 146 carries, while Dobbins out-touched him for the first ten weeks.
Twenty-four cents. The market is pricing a 24% chance on a player who scored in better than half his games as a rookie. Add the 1.28-cent fee and you are in at 25.28, which is +296. Fanatics is a touch longer at +310 and DraftKings sits at +295; take the longest number in front of you.
I am not going to hand you the 52.9% and run, because it is flattered by circumstance. Dobbins had season-ending foot surgery after Week 10, and Harvey's rate after that was 5-of-7. With Dobbins healthy, which he is Monday, Harvey scored in 4 of 10, 40%. Use that number. It is the honest one, and it is still 15 points clear of what you are being charged.
It works even with Dobbins upright because Harvey does not need goal-line carries to score. He caught 47 passes for 356 yards as a rookie. He is the Joker in this offense, the guy who gets split out, motioned and thrown to in space, and tonight he is running at a front missing left tackle Josh Simmons, with rookie Kahlil Benson drawing Nik Bonitto and his 14.5 sacks. Two paths to the end zone, and the market is pricing him like he has half of one.
RJ Harvey, YES on 1+ touchdowns. Price 24¢, after fee 25.28¢, effective +296. Take it to 30¢.
The fine print. Inside the five, with both backs healthy in Weeks 1 through 10, Dobbins out-carried Harvey seven to three. The goal-line work is Dobbins'. Harvey's touchdowns came from everywhere else, which is the bet, but if Denver's scoring drives all end in short-yardage plunges, this ticket watches. Denver also added rookie Jonah Coleman behind them, and Bo Nix vultured five scores himself last season.
Courtland Sutton Anytime Touchdown: The Receiver Everybody Forgot About In March
Denver shipped a first, a third and a fourth to Miami for Jaylen Waddle, and from that minute forward every conversation about this receiving corps has been about the new toy. Completely understandable. Also extremely convenient if you happen to be holding the old guy's ticket.
Courtland Sutton caught 74 balls for 1,017 yards and seven touchdowns last season, scoring in seven of 17 games, 41.2%. That was his second straight 1,000-yard year and his third straight season of seven-plus scores, after 10 and 8. He is a captain.
A fee of 1.38 puts you in at 28.38, or +252, on a 41.2% base rate. Fanatics has the same touchdown at +250 and DraftKings at +240, so the exchange is the price here by a hair.
He is also the single worst matchup Kansas City could have drawn. The Chiefs traded Trent McDuffie to the Rams, lost Jaylen Watson to the same team, lost Bryan Cook to Cincinnati and Joshua Williams as well — four regulars out of a secondary that already finished 29th on third down. What is left is L'Jarius Sneed on a limited practice week, a rookie in Mansoor Delane making his NFL debut, Alohi Gilman, who allowed a 113.7 passer rating in coverage last year, and a backup safety starting because Chamarri Conner is out.
Sutton is 6-foot-4 and makes his living winning jump balls inside the 20. That group is going to spend Monday night in a lot of Cover 3, with a rookie, hoping.
Courtland Sutton, YES on 1+ touchdowns. Price 27¢, after fee 28.38¢, effective +252. Take it to 32¢.
The fine print. The Waddle trade is a real threat to this, not just narrative. Sutton's target share has to come down with a 100-target receiver added to the room, and the red-zone looks are the ones a new toy usually gets first. Denver also spread 25 receiving touchdowns across ten different players last season, which is the opposite of a concentrated target tree.
Jaylen Waddle Anytime Touchdown: The New Toy Nobody Has Priced As A Scorer
Of the three, Waddle is the one the market has come closest to pricing right, and at 30 cents it still has not caught up to his rate. That gap is the opportunity.
Waddle scored in six of his 16 games last season, 37.5%. Thirty cents is 31.47 after the fee, or +218. BetRivers pays +230 for the identical outcome and DraftKings and Fanatics pay +210, which is the shop-your-number lesson from the top of the page in one row.
And he is precisely the profile that ruins a thin secondary. His 2025 average depth of target was 13.2 yards, his air-yards share was 38.7%, fourth in the entire NFL, and he lined up wide on 76.5% of his snaps. That is a field-stretcher's usage, and Denver's one preseason sample had early-down air yards nearly doubling. A rookie corner making his NFL debut and a safety who allowed a 113.7 passer rating do not get to make many mistakes against that. One of them is a touchdown, not a completion.
So why third? Because 37.5% is the lowest base rate of the trio, and because a 13.2 aDOT puts him behind Sutton and Evan Engram in the red-zone pecking order. It clears at 30 cents. It just clears by the least, and I would rather tell you that than dress him up as a co-favorite.
Jaylen Waddle, YES on 1+ touchdowns. Price 30¢, after fee 31.47¢, effective +218. Take it to 34¢. If your book has +230, that is the better ticket.
The fine print. Six touchdowns is a thin base to extrapolate from, and a brand-new receiver in a brand-new offense is exactly the guy a coaching staff eases in. Kader Kohou, who Kansas City added this offseason and keeps on its practice squad, also spent years covering Waddle every day in Miami practice and knows the release package cold, a scouting report Kansas City's staff gets to use whether or not he is elevated for this game.
Other Broncos Vs Chiefs Touchdown Props I Looked At
Three names come up every time this market gets discussed, so here is the quick pass on each.
Travis Kelce, 31¢ (32.50¢ after fee). He scored in five of 17 games last season, 29.4%. The exchange is charging you more than his rate for a 36-year-old tight end whose touchdown totals since 2022 read 12, 5, 3, 5. Nothing to fade, just a bad buy to skip.
Xavier Worthy, 22¢. He played 14 games last season, caught 42 passes and scored one touchdown, a 7.1% rate. You are paying roughly triple that for brand recognition.
Rashee Rice, 37¢. The one Chiefs contract with a real argument: he scored in four of the eight games he played. I am still passing, for two reasons. Eight games is a thin sample, and buying a Kansas City touchdown pulls directly against the three tickets above. Pick a side, commit to it.
Final Thoughts: The Monday Night Football TD Card
| Contract | Price | After fee | Effective | Best sportsbook | Take it to | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Harvey Yes 1+ TD | 24¢ | 25.28¢ | +296 | +310 (Fanatics) | 30¢ | Scored in 9 of 17 games; two paths to the end zone at the cheapest price on the board |
| Courtland Sutton Yes 1+ TD | 27¢ | 28.38¢ | +252 | +250 (Fanatics) | 32¢ | 7 of 17, and the jump-ball target against a secondary down four regulars |
| Jaylen Waddle Yes 1+ TD | 30¢ | 31.47¢ | +218 | +230 (BetRivers) | 34¢ | 6 of 16, and a 38.7% air-yards share against a rookie corner's debut |
Kalshi asks and sportsbook prices read 10:30 p.m. ET Sunday, September 13, 2026. Fees at the published taker rate of 0.07 x price x (1 - price), rounded up.
Here is the number that makes the structure work: split evenly, you only need ONE of the trio to find pay dirt to turn a profit. Harvey alone puts you up roughly 32% on the total outlay at tonight's prices. Sutton alone, 17%. Even Waddle alone, the shortest price of the three, nets about 6%. Two of them get in and you have better than doubled your money. Note that the payout ladder runs in the same order as my conviction. Note also that this math is at tonight's prices: at the take-it-to ceilings, a Waddle-only hit loses about 6%, which is why the ceilings are ceilings.
That is exactly what a parlay takes away from you. Stitched into one leg, all three have to land or you get nothing.
Touchdown contracts were 43.5% of everything traded on Kalshi's NFL board at my 5:30 p.m. read, with first-scorer adding another 12.5%. That is where the crowd is. It is also where a crowd that spent all week hammering the Denver moneyline — nearly a million contracts traded, and 96% of the 100,000 we tracked were buys, against a price that never budged off 44 cents — somehow never got around to buying the Denver end zone.
They bought the team and skipped the end zone. Against a secondary this thin, that is the wrong half of the board to be loud on: the touchdowns are where the number is wrong.
If you want the game itself rather than the end zone, every line on it got run in Broncos vs Chiefs Prediction: AI vs Kalshi on All 46 Lines, and the full 12-name scorer board with both venues' prices is on the Broncos vs Chiefs anytime TD board.
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See you at kickoff.
Lindy
More on this: NFL 2026 on Kalshi: 49 Live Boards, 10 Days To Kickoff · Broncos Vs Chiefs Anytime TD Odds: Kalshi Vs The Books · Can Five AI Models Beat The Market On Kalshi Player Props? · 49ers vs Rams Kalshi Player Props: Who Gets Fed In Melbourne · NFL Week 1 Kalshi Player Props: Six Contracts That Stick Out
Kalshi prices quoted were read from the exchange at 10:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 13, 2026 and will move before Monday's 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff; confirm the bid and ask before trading. Sportsbook prices are from OddsShopper's live-odds feed at the same read and should be re-checked at the book. Statistics cited are 2025 regular-season figures from Pro Football Reference, ESPN, NFL.com, StatMuse, Sumer Sports, FTN/Football Outsiders and nfelo; 2026 preseason personnel rates are small samples and are labeled as such. The edges here are model estimates, not predictions of fact; nothing here is financial advice. Trading involves risk and contracts can settle at zero. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
