Monday Night Football odds this week: Commanders at 49ers, Oct. 19. The bet is Brock Purdy 275+ passing yards, 38.7¢ on Kalshi for a 47.6% shot in 10,000 Sims. The 49ers themselves are priced to the Sims at 78.3¢ against 76.5%. Full board below; the Bills-Rams edition, Stafford under 38 attempts, is kept further down.
Week 3 recap, Eagles at Bears: Chicago's starting quarterback was ruled out this weekend and the price to buy the Bears went up, from 32¢ on Friday to 35¢ on Sunday night. That makes the Bears the wrong buy: after the fee they cost the same as +170 at DraftKings, for a team starting a 38-year-old backup. The bet on this page is the total. No on 42 or more points costs 49¢, and seven of eight AI models that priced the game without seeing a market number say it lands under.
The facts, from ESPN's injury feed: Caleb Williams is Out with a hamstring strain, Tyson Bagent cleared the concussion protocol but is set to back up, and Case Keenum is in line for his first regular-season action since 2023. Dallas Goedert and Hollywood Brown are out for Philadelphia; DeVonta Smith and Saquon Barkley were cleared. One buyer took the Bears from 32¢ to 37¢ on Saturday, before the ruling was public. Sunday's Eagles money barely moved it, and the Eagles sit at 65¢ to 66¢, down from 69¢ Friday.
The models split with the market on the total, not the winner. Their middle answer on the Eagles is 65%, against a 65.5¢ midpoint. On 42 or more points the price is 51.5¢, and seven of eight models say it lands under.
Kalshi prices from Kalshi's public API, pulled 8:41 p.m. ET, Sunday, September 27, 2026. Sportsbook lines from the OddsShopper odds feed and DraftKings via ESPN at 8:47 p.m. ET. Injury facts from ESPN's injury feed, fetched the same evening. The AI panel ran from 8:56 p.m. ET.
Price the combo before you buy it. The Kalshi Combo Simulator plays this week's game 10,000 times and prices any combo you build next to the price on Kalshi, on your phone, free, no login.
Next Up: Commanders At 49ers, Monday Oct. 19
Washington visits San Francisco at 8:15 p.m. ET. Here is Monday evening's Kalshi board (5:52 p.m. CT, before the inactives) against 10,000 Sims from the 8:30 p.m. CT Sunday run. Tap See it on any row to open Ask The Sims with that question loaded.
| Contract | Kalshi | Sims | Ask The Sims |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers win | 78.3¢ (-361) | 76.5% | See it → |
| Commanders win | 25.3¢ (+295) | 23.5% | See it → |
| 49ers by 7+ | 57.7¢ (-136) | 57.6% | See it → |
| Over 51.5 | 52.7¢ (-111) | 51.2% | See it → |
| Under 51.5 | 51.7¢ (-107) | 48.8% | See it → |
By Monday evening the game lines had come to the Sims: the 49ers are 1.8¢ dear at 78.3¢ against 76.5%, 49ers by 7+ is priced to the decimal, and the total is a cent or two against you either way. The money on this game is in the player lines.
The bet: Brock Purdy 275+ passing yards, 38.7¢ (+158) on Kalshi against 47.6% in the Sims, 8.9¢ of edge; a 7.5-point favorite the market expects to run the clock, in a script where San Francisco keeps throwing. Daniels 19+ completions, Sunday's lead, is 4.5¢ after the market came up to 58.6¢. The full card, four Ask the Sims answers with the Kalshi price beside each, is on Monday Night Football picks for Week 6. See it →
Ask your own.Type any Commanders-49ers question into Ask The Sims on the free Kalshi Parlay Simulator; it answers from the same 10,000 runs in seconds.
On a sportsbook or Polymarket?The same Sims answer in the free DraftKings Parlay Simulator, FanDuel Parlay Simulator and Polymarket Combo Simulator.
Prices as of Monday, Oct. 19, 2026, 5:52 p.m. CT: Kalshi, fee included. Sims: the 10,000-game run of 8:30 p.m. CT Sunday. Inactives post near 6:45 p.m. ET.
Week 3 Recap: Eagles At Bears
Kickoff is 8:15 p.m. ET Monday at Soldier Field on ESPN and ABC. Each Kalshi contract pays $1 if its outcome happens, so a price in cents reads as a percent chance. The rows are the winner, each team winning by five or more (the rung that matches DraftKings' 4.5-point spread), and 42 or more total points (the over on 41.5); the table sets each price beside the sportsbooks and the panel's middle answer.
| Monday | Kalshi (bid / ask) | Sportsbooks | AI panel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | 65¢ / 66¢ | -205 DraftKings, -210 FanDuel | 65% |
| Bears | 34¢ / 35¢ | +170 DraftKings, +176 FanDuel | 35% |
| PHI by 5+ | 47¢ / 48¢ | Eagles -4.5 at DraftKings | 47.5% |
| CHI by 5+ | 21¢ / 22¢ | No matching line posted | 18% |
| 42+ points | 51¢ / 52¢ | Total 41.5 at DraftKings | 46.5% |
Read the Bears row. It is the story of the weekend: the quarterback went out and the price went up. After Kalshi's trading fee, 2¢ a contract at this price, the Bears cost the same as +170 at DraftKings; Hard Rock's +180 beats both. The Eagles side is closer: the 66¢ ask with the fee lands near -213, against -205 at DraftKings and -210 at FanDuel.
Now read the last row. "42 or more points" costs 51¢ to 52¢, and the panel's middle answer is 46.5%. No on that contract costs 49¢ and is the one bet this page makes, in My Take below.
The panel number is the middle answer of eight models after a revision round. Projections and hit rates on this page are estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
New to Kalshi event markets? Start with how Kalshi's NFL yes/no contracts work.
Where The Market Moved: Toward The Team That Lost Its Quarterback
The Bears' contract sat at 31¢ to 32¢ from Wednesday through Friday night. The Eagles' win at Tennessee and Chicago's loss to Minnesota in the rain had settled the week's price. On Saturday at lunchtime one buyer took the Bears from 32¢ to 37¢, before ESPN's feed carried the Williams ruling; the feed listed Williams as Out at 8:12 a.m. ET Sunday, and the price did not move on the news. Sunday's Eagles money barely moved it. 35¢ is holding, and the Saturday buyer is still holding.
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Why would the Bears get dearer without Williams? The plain reading is that the Saturday buyer expected the ruling and thought 32¢ was too cheap for a Bears team that held Minnesota to nine points, at home, against an Eagles offense missing its tight end, a receiver and its left guard. The price agrees with the first half of that and not the second. Sunday's buying was Eagles money, and it settled at a price that still has the Bears three cents better than Friday.
The side lines say the same thing quietly. "Eagles by 5 or more" is 47¢ bid, 48¢ ask, a coin flip with the fee. "42 or more points" is 51¢ / 52¢, so the exchange sits a cent on the over side of DraftKings' 41.5.
What Eight Blind AI Models Said
Each model got the same fact card this evening with no market prices and no sportsbook lines: both teams' complete 2025 scoring ledgers and both 2026 games so far, the three meetings ESPN's schedule feeds list since 2019, Chicago's home record and Philadelphia's road record since 2021, league base rates, both rosters' quarterbacks, the live injury feed and the dated status record from ESPN, including the Williams ruling and the Keenum report. Each stated one view of the margin and the total and derived four numbers from it, then read the others anonymously and could revise once. Nine seats were asked; one was over its weekly allowance and did not answer. Here is where the eight finished.
| Model | Eagles win | Eagles by 5+ | Bears by 5+ | 42+ points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable | 70% | 53% | 18% | 47% |
| Gemini | 68% | 49% | 18% | 45% |
| Claude Sonnet | 68% | 52% | 21% | 45% |
| Claude Opus | 65% | 48% | 21% | 46% |
| Grok | 65% | 44% | 18% | 44% |
| GLM | 63% | 46% | 17% | 48% |
| DeepSeek | 63% | 47% | 16% | 53% |
| GPT | 63% | 41% | 21% | 48% |
| Middle answer | 65% | 47.5% | 18% | 46.5% |
| Kalshi midpoint | 65.5¢ | 47.5¢ | 21.5¢ | 51.5¢ |
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements. The two records that matter here: DeepSeek, the one seat on the over, is 84% on 5,180 graded calls; Claude Fable, the strongest Eagles seat, is 86% on 4,836. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
On the winner and on the Eagles by five, the middle answer and the midpoint are the same number: 65 against 65.5, and 47.5 against 47.5. In Week 1 the panel sat four points under the market on the Chiefs; this week nobody on the page, models, exchange or books, disagrees about who wins. The eight seats still spread from 63 to 70 on Philadelphia, for stated reasons. The three seats at 63 (GPT, GLM, DeepSeek) priced the Eagles' own attrition, Goedert, Brown and Dickerson out, and a 2025 profile of eight one-score wins. The seats at 68 and 70 priced Keenum's first regular-season action since 2023 as the largest edge on the board and Chicago's 20-22 home record since 2021 as no edge at all.
Two lines have the room on one side of the price. On the Bears winning by five or more, all eight seats are below 21.5¢, with a middle answer of 18%: a Chicago win, in this room, is a close one. The total is 42 or more points at 51.5¢, and seven of eight models say it lands under. The one seat above it, DeepSeek at 53%, held through the revision round and called the total "only slightly over." Every number in this piece gets graded in public once the game settles, on the full graded scoreboard.
Where The Panel Changed Its Mind
The case for Philadelphia in the room was one fact and its consequences: Keenum, 38, taking his first regular-season snaps since 2023 behind a plan ESPN's feed expects to lean on the run, against a defense that gave up 19.1 points a game in 2025. The case for Chicago was that the Eagles are 2-0 by six points combined, threw two interceptions at Tennessee, and travel without Dallas Goedert, Hollywood Brown and Landon Dickerson.
The revision round moved the room a point or two and in one direction on each line: down on the Eagles, down on the total. Claude Sonnet cut the Eagles from 70 to 68. Two other models pointed out the Eagles have won by two and four, with two Hurts interceptions at Tennessee, and Sonnet wrote that it "hadn't weighed" that against its quarterback-mismatch framing.
Claude Fable trimmed from 71 to 70 and kept the rest:
Keenum is a known replacement-level veteran, not an unknown, and historical starter-to-competent-backup drops cluster nearer 4 points than 5-6, especially with a run-heavy plan that compresses variance and protects him. Claude Fable
Claude Opus went the other way, up one on the Eagles, on a fact it had not priced:
What moved me is Chicago's defensive absences (safety Anthony Johnson Jr., linebacker Noah Sewell and DT Shemar Turner, all out). I had not priced them. The 9-3 Week 2 game was played in wet, windy weather and is not a sign of a low-scoring offense. Claude Opus
Gemini held its winner and was the one seat to raise the total, from 39 to 45, "after noting my severe over-adjustment against league priors." Nobody moved toward Chicago.
The panel has priced this game three times, and the market has walked toward it while the quarterback news broke. Here is every stored run on the Eagles winning, the middle answer after each revision round beside Kalshi's price at the moment the panel ran:
| Panel ran | Eagles win, panel | Eagles win, Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| September 22 | 67.5% | 64¢ |
| September 25 | 74% | 69¢ |
| September 27 | 65% | 65.5¢ |
The September 22 and 25 runs were six-seat boards that priced the whole Week 3 slate; tonight's is the first run built on this game alone. Williams was week-to-week on September 25 and Out on September 27.
What Would Change The Number Before Kickoff
- The Bears' quarterback call. ESPN's feed has Keenum set to start with Bagent, cleared from the protocol but short on practice, as the backup, and notes the team had not announced it. If Bagent starts instead, the Bears' price should firm; he took over for Williams last week and has practiced in this offense all summer. A Keenum start is what the 35¢ already assumes.
- Inactives, near 6:45 p.m. ET. Jonathan Greenard practiced in full Saturday for the first time since his pectoral injury and is questionable. Philadelphia is already without Dallas Goedert (knee), Hollywood Brown (ankle), Fred Johnson (knee) and Landon Dickerson (injured reserve); DeVonta Smith and Saquon Barkley were both cleared and carry no designation. A surprise Eagles inactive on the offensive line is the one thing on the list that would move the Eagles' price down.
- Keenum's first series. The whole Bears case is a run-heavy plan behind D'Andre Swift and a defense that held Minnesota to nine points in the rain. Early pressure on a 38-year-old quarterback is the signal that pushes the live Bears price down; a clean opening drive pushes it up.
- Late money. Saturday's buyer moved the Bears five cents; Sunday's Eagles money moved the price one. A move of three cents or more before kickoff would mean offers got pulled, and it is worth checking which side.
Settlement Timeline
The winner contract settles on the final score, and every rung on this page is graded the morning after.
| When | What happens |
|---|---|
| Monday, September 28, near 6:45 p.m. ET | Inactives posted |
| Monday, September 28, 8:15 p.m. ET | Kickoff at Soldier Field, ESPN/ABC |
| Monday night, after the final whistle | Winner, margin and total contracts settle |
| Tuesday, September 29 | Week 3 result added to the record below |
| Monday, October 5, morning | This page rebuilds for Falcons at Saints, 8:15 p.m. ET |
Prices on this page are as of September 27, 2026, 8:41 p.m. ET, and the page is re-scored when the story moves before kickoff.
The Monday Night Record
This page prices one game every Monday of the 2026 season and keeps the result.
| Week | Game | Kalshi favorite, morning | Panel's call | Total, panel vs market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos at Chiefs | Chiefs 55.5¢ | Chiefs 52% | 42% vs 48.5¢ on 44+ | Chiefs 31-10, total 41 |
| 2 | Giants at Rams | Rams 74¢ | Rams 69% (Week 2 board) | Not priced | Rams 28-6, total 34 |
| 3 | Eagles at Bears | Eagles 65.5¢ | Eagles 65% | 46.5% vs 51.5¢ on 42+ | Monday |
Week 1: the panel and the market both had the Chiefs, and Kansas City won by 21, so the winner call was right and the Chiefs-by-3 line the panel had priced at 41% against 49.5¢ paid; the total landed on 41, under, where the panel was the lower number. Week 2: this page was not rebuilt, so the row carries the panel's stored Week 2 board call, Rams 69% against 74¢, and the Rams won by 22.
If you want Monday's game from every other angle, Dave Loughran's Eagles vs Bears picks work the spread, and the Week 3 anytime touchdown page covers the props.
My Take
The Bears at 35¢ are the wrong buy. The price went up on a weekend the starting quarterback went out, and after the fee it matches +170 at DraftKings for a team handing the ball to Case Keenum; the Saturday buyer got 32¢ and you cannot. The Eagles at 66¢ are fairly priced, by the exchange, by the books and by eight blind models at 65%, so there is nothing to do there either.
My one call is No on 42 or more points at 49¢. Seven of eight models have it under, and the argument is the plan: a 38-year-old quarterback, a coach with every reason to hand the ball to D'Andre Swift and shorten the game, and an Eagles offense without its tight end and its left guard that has scored 24 points in each of its two games. The three meetings between these teams since 2019 averaged 40 points. I would buy it at half the size I would give a winner contract, since a backup quarterback's short fields cut both ways. It goes into the record either way on Tuesday morning.
The panel's calls are on the record. Every number on this page is graded once the game settles, on the full graded scoreboard.
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Kalshi prices as of 8:41 p.m. ET, September 27, 2026; AI panel generated from 8:56 p.m. ET the same evening, price-blind, eight models, one revision round. Every figure here is a market price or an estimate.
Prices on this page are Kalshi's book. If you also trade on Polymarket, code OS4 gets new users a $50 trading bonus on a $10 deposit, affiliate link; terms as stated by Polymarket; 18+, availability varies by state.
More on this: Ask the Sims Tonight: Commanders at 49ers, Live At Kickoff · Monday Night Football Picks: Stafford Won't Air It Out · Monday Night Football Picks: The 27-Cent Bet I'm Taking · Kalshi NFL Futures Vs Sportsbooks: Where The Edge Is · Sunday Night Football Picks: The Backup Changes Everything · Thursday Night Football Picks: One Script, One Line Moved
