Sunday Night Football Picks: The Backup Changes Everything

Lamar Jackson is out, Tyler Huntley starts for Baltimore, and the Sims rebuilt Sunday night at 11:29 a.m. CT with that lineup. The price on the Falcons went up with the news. The bets that pay are not about the Falcons winning. They are about what a Huntley game looks like, and what it does to the quarterback on the other sideline.

Stokastic's Sims, 10,000 runs of the 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, have Atlanta winning 59.1% of the time against a 63.6¢ price, so the favorite is 4¢ too dear and the Ravens at 40.7¢ are fair. Neither side of the game is the bet. The props are.

Ask the Sims is the question box on the free Kalshi Combo Simulator: type a prop in plain English and it counts how often it hits across the 10,000 Sims, with the Kalshi price beside it. Each bet below starts with the question I typed into it Sunday afternoon and the card it sent back, then a verdict on the price. That is the first leg of the parlay here.

Building it on DraftKings or FanDuel instead?

The free DraftKings Parlay Simulator and FanDuel Parlay Simulator on Stokastic.com price these same props from the same 10,000 Sims, and the Polymarket Combo Simulator prices them in Polymarket's cents.

Penix Stays Under 200

NO on Michael Penix Jr. 200+ passing yards · 40.7¢ (+146) on Kalshi · 48.3% in the Sims

What I asked: "How often does Michael Penix Jr. throw for 200+ yards?"

The answer card from Ask the Sims in the Kalshi Combo Simulator, Sunday afternoon. Tap it to ask your own question about this game.

The card sends you to the other side. Two hundred yards costs 63.6¢ for something the Sims see in 51.7% of games, which is 12¢ against anyone buying the over. The under at 40.7¢ against 48.3% is the widest gap in this game. With Huntley at quarterback, Baltimore runs Derrick Henry and shortens the game, and a short game means fewer Atlanta drives and fewer Penix throws, in a game the Falcons lead more often than not.

Andrews Doesn't Score

NO on Mark Andrews scores a TD · 76.3¢ (-322) on Kalshi · 83.2% in the Sims

What I asked: "How often does Mark Andrews score a touchdown?"

The answer card from Ask the Sims, Sunday afternoon. Tap it to ask your own question about this game.

This is a fade of the price, not the player. Andrews is priced like Lamar Jackson's red-zone target, 27.3¢, and the Sims give him 16.9% with Huntley throwing. A Huntley offense scores on the ground: Henry scores in 53.8% of the runs, and the tight end's share of the end zone shrinks when the quarterback's first read on the goal line is a handoff.

Hill For A Small Stake

Justice Hill scores a TD · 11.7¢ (+755) on Kalshi · 17.8% in the Sims

What I asked: "How often does Justice Hill score a touchdown?"

The answer card from Ask the Sims, Sunday afternoon. Tap it to ask your own question about this game.

Hill is Baltimore's second back and its passing-down back, and a Huntley game is a short-pass game. The Sims give him 17.8% to score, against a price that treats him as an afterthought. It pays more than six to one and hits a little better than one game in six.

Huntley Clears 125

YES on Tyler Huntley 125+ passing yards · 81.1¢ (-429) on Kalshi · 85.9% in the Sims

What I asked: "How often does Tyler Huntley throw for 125+ yards?"

The answer card from Ask the Sims, Sunday afternoon. Tap it to ask your own question about this game.

The quiet leg. A backup's passing lines get priced for a backup, and 125 yards is a low bar even for a run-first script: Huntley clears it in 85.9% of the Sims. It pays the least of the four and cashes the most often, which is what you want from the leg that anchors a parlay.