Sam Smith
Betting Analyst, OddsShopper
Sam Smith writes betting strategy and tool guides for OddsShopper, translating the team’s data and models into practical, +EV-focused advice.
Articles by Sam Smith
PrizePicks Cheat Sheet Today: How to Use a PrizePicks Optimizer
If you're searching for a PrizePicks cheat sheet today or wondering how to use PrizePicks for long-term profits, you're in the right place.
Underdog Fantasy Cheat Sheet: How to Find the Best Picks Today
Want to win more on Underdog Fantasy? This Underdog cheat sheet breaks down the best beginner strategies.
Get a 7-DAY FREE TRIAL Of Portfolio EV Today!
You've probably heard all of our OddsShopper talent mention Portfolio EV countless times. Now get a free trial!
Positive Expected Value Explained: How to Find Positive EV Edges in Sports Betting
The phrase "positive expected value," also called "+EV" for short, gets bandied about a lot in the sports betting space.
What is Portfolio EV? Guide to +EV Sports Betting
At OddsShopper, we're shaking up the sports betting game with our groundbreaking Portfolio EV betting tools.
Sports Betting Software Showdown: Which Tool Is Right for You?
In a market where sportsbooks hold the edge, sharp bettors turn to tools that help flip the odds.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks: Lugo's 10 Runs In The 1st (Sept. 23)
NRFI picks today, Sept. 23: Seth Lugo's 10 first-inning runs in 10 starts, priced quiet; Gusto's seven straight clean firsts; Ureña's one run in 10 starts.
Susan Collins Odds: The Slide Started Before The Report
Susan Collins has been trailing in Maine's Senate race market since April, and on Tuesday a corruption report gave that slide a headline to match.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks: Bradley's 11 In The 1st (Sept. 22)
NRFI picks today, Sept. 22: Taj Bradley's 11 first-inning runs in 10 starts, priced quiet; Jared Jones's six straight clean firsts; Kay's best-edge game.
Oscars Best Actor Odds: Malkovich Leads, And He's Never Been Nominated
John Malkovich won the Volpi Cup for best actor at Venice on September 12, and ten days later he leads Kalshi's Best Actor board at 36 cents.
Trump Address To The Nation: 78% Chance Before Dec. 1
There is an enormous amount of Trump TV right now, and almost none of it is a Trump address to the nation, the one format this market pays on.
Caleb Williams Injury: 55 Percent To 1 In One Day
Caleb Williams was carted off Soldier Field on Sunday with a right hamstring, pulling up on a first-and-goal scramble with nobody within five yards of him.
Permanent Daylight Savings Time: Why You'll Still Fall Back
Nineteen states have already passed laws to stop changing their clocks twice a year, and not one of them can use those laws.
Trinidad Chambliss Draft Stock Tripled After Beating LSU
Trinidad Chambliss threw for 363 yards and two touchdowns and ran in the go-ahead score in the fourth quarter on Saturday night, as No. 8 Ole Miss beat No.
Gable Steveson Odds: Four Pro Fights, 91 Cents At UFC 331
Four professional fights, 91 cents: the market has seen enough when it comes to Gable Steveson as he heads to his UFC 331 match with Sean Sharaf.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks: Suárez's 9 Straight (Sept. 18)
NRFI picks today, Sept. 18: Ranger Suárez's nine straight clean firsts, Clay Holmes's six as a Cub, Andrew Painter's 13 first-inning runs in 10 starts.
Connor Hellebuyck Trade Odds: Who's Trending After Goalie's Suspension?
Kalshi halved the odds that Connor Hellebuyck is still a Winnipeg Jet on Nov. 1, cutting the contract from 28 cents to 15 in a day.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks: Dodgers Side Pays +128 (Sept. 17)
NRFI picks today, Sept. 17: the Dodgers side pays +128 against a +119 fair, and Drew Rasmussen last allowed a first-inning run on July 4.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks: Javier's 7 Clean Firsts (Sept. 16)
NRFI picks today, Sept. 16: Cristian Javier's seven straight clean first innings, Coors at plus money on the quiet side, Zebby Matthews' six of ten with a run.
Resident Evil Movie Rotten Tomatoes Score: What 5 Critics Cost
Ninety-eight percent on 56 reviews, and not one of those critics filed after a paying audience saw the thing. Kalshi does not read the score until Monday.
Connor Bedard Hart Odds: He's The Captain Now
Connor Bedard got the C from the Blackhawks on Tuesday and his Hart Trophy price on Kalshi never moved a cent, and only two explanations fit.
Kenneth Walker Rushing Odds: 13 Percent Off One Blowout
Kenneth Walker III has gained nine points on Kalshi's Pro Football Rushing Yards Leader board since Monday night, the biggest move on it.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks: Junk's 13 Straight (Sept. 15)
NRFI picks today, Sept. 15: Janson Junk's 13 straight clean first innings, Arizona yet to score in the first in 15 games, San Francisco 13 of 15.
Talarico Vs. Paxton Polls: Paxton Might Lose Texas To Talarico, And The GOP Knows It
Ken Paxton has led just one of six public Texas Senate polls since August, yet Kalshi still prices his race against James Talarico as a coin flip.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks: Rasmussen's 10 Straight (Sept. 11)
NRFI picks today, Sept. 11: Rasmussen's 10 straight clean first innings, a first-inning run in 3 of Washington's last 15, and Scherzer's 12 on a 15-game board.
Who Is Favored To Win Governor Of Alaska?
Alaska spent five days in early September arguing about whether one of its Republican candidates for governor belonged on the November ballot at all.
Oklahoma Should Win And Cover 5.5 At Michigan
Michigan is 1-0, and the tape says the Wolverines lost. They needed a disputed, clock-restored 47-yard Hail Mary from Bryce Underwood to JJ Buchanan to get.
Raptors At 6 Cents Are The Value On Kalshi's East Board
Toronto is 6 cents on Kalshi's Eastern Conference #1 seed board as of 10:43 a.m. ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2026, the same price as Miami and less than a.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks: Alcantara's 14 Straight (Sept. 8)
NRFI picks today, Sept. 8: Alcantara's 14 straight clean firsts, Perkins' 14 first-inning runs, and a Rays-Braves first that beats fair both ways.
Rams 49ers Receiving Yards: Who Got A Line
Sixty-seven receiving-yards markets are live on Thursday's San Francisco at Los Angeles Rams opener, and George Kittle does not have one of them in his name.
Why I'm Passing On Antonelli At 36 Cents In Madrid
Three days after a drive people will still be talking about in December, the market has made Andrea Kimi Antonelli the most expensive name on the board for the.
CPI Report Odds: Where Inflation Is Priced
The inflation board is not arguing about whether inflation is high. It is arguing about one tenth of a point. The whole question is whether August's.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks Today: Cubs' Quiet Firsts (Sept. 7)
MLB NRFI and YRFI picks for Monday, September 7: Cubs-Brewers NRFI -102 behind the Cubs' board-low first-inning rate leads three edges on the 11-game Labor Day board.
Has A Running Back Won NFL MVP? Not Since 2012
The NFL MVP has gone to a quarterback 13 seasons running. Seventeen non-quarterbacks trade on Kalshi's board, and 16 of them have no bid at all.
The Shutdown Market Got Its Answer This Week
The biggest question hanging over the week was settled by a 370-48 vote. That was the House passing a short-term government funding bill on September 1, 2026.
Tua Tagovailoa Injury: Paid As Starter, Out Before A Snap
Kalshi settled its Falcons Week 1 starter contract as a Yes on Tua Tagovailoa on Wednesday, September 9. Friday, Atlanta ruled him out with an oblique strain. Cooper Rush starts, Michael Penix Jr. stays inactive, the job proxy printed 10 cents, and no market prices when Penix takes over.
Michigan Governor Odds: Seven Raters, Not One Says Safe
Kalshi's Democratic contract for Michigan governor trades near 90 cents. Not one of the seven handicappers who rate the race calls it safe. Here is what that price is actually buying.
Is It Legal To Bet On Elections In Michigan? The 2026 Rules
Is it legal to bet on elections in Michigan? State law bans election wagers at sportsbooks, but Michiganders can trade races on a federally regulated exchange.
Michigan Governor Prediction Markets: 12 Points Undecided
Michigan governor prediction markets price the Benson-James race far wider than the two-way polls. Do Libertarian, Green and undecided voters explain the gap?
Michigan House Races 2026 Odds: The Nominee Who Quit And Won
Kalshi now prices all 13 Michigan House seats. Six of our eight AI models scored every one of them without seeing a price, and split from the market on all three live races.
Michigan Senate Race 2026: Five Polls, One Outlier, Odds That Won't Move
Who is running for Senate in Michigan in 2026, what the El-Sayed vs Rogers polls say, and where Kalshi has the open seat priced heading into November 3.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks Today: +135 In Detroit (Aug. 28)
MLB NRFI and YRFI picks for Friday, August 28: Dodgers-Tigers YRFI +135 against Tarik Skubal's rough first innings leads seven edges on the 15-game board.
Kalshi Flight Cancellation Odds: The Hedge That Drew A Lawsuit
A conference organizer bought seven figures of protection against JFK shutting down on one October day. A flight-tracking company sued over it. The contract is still open.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks Today: +109 In Toronto (Aug. 27)
MLB NRFI and YRFI picks for Thursday, August 27: Royals-Blue Jays YRFI +109 on Spencer Arrighetti's first Toronto start leads the 7-game board.
Best AI Coding Model
Ten days after LiveBench scored GPT-6 Astra fourteenth and traders sold OpenAI to 17 cents, the contract is back to 27 bid, 28 asked — and the top four scores on the column that settles this market have not changed at all. The 28-cent offer holds one contract.
Minnesota Governor And Senate Odds 2026
A price-blind, eight-model AI panel scored Kalshi's Minnesota Governor-Senate combo board and put the DFL sweep at 72 percent against a market near 90 cents, because the same August poll that has Amy Klobuchar up 15 points shows Peggy Flanagan up just 5.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks Today: +130 In Miami (Aug. 26)
MLB NRFI and YRFI picks for Wednesday, August 26: Red Sox-Marlins YRFI +130 against Sonny Gray's streak leads three runs-side edges on the 15-game board.
NBA East 1 Seed Odds: Kalshi Doubts The 60-Win Pistons
Detroit won 60 games, finished first in the East by four, and Kalshi now lists four teams ahead of the Pistons for next season's top seed. Eight models scored all 15 teams without seeing a single price, and every one of them made Detroit the favorite.
Bryson DeChambeau Course Record Odds: One Try Left On Kalshi
Bryson DeChambeau has two course records in 2026, one tied and one broken, and told his own audience he gets six chances. Five have aired. Kalshi has 223,665 contracts riding on how the sixth ends.
Kyrie Irving Next Team Odds: Everyone Else Left Dallas
The general manager, the head coach, the assistant closest to him and the teammate he was meant to play beside have all left Dallas. Kyrie Irving has not. Eight AI models priced Kalshi's 30-team board on where he starts the season, without seeing a number.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks Today: Ureña's 10 Straight (Aug. 25)
NRFI picks today, Aug. 25: Ureña's 10 straight clean firsts, Seattle's 12-of-15 loud opens, and a +144 gap on Skenes-King at Petco. All 15 games inside.
Traders Expect Trump To Be Impeached, Not To Leave Office
Kalshi runs four separate contracts around Donald Trump leaving office early, and their prices do not line up. Eight AI models priced the ladder blind.
IndyCar Championship Odds: Palou Took Pole And Finished 20th
Alex Palou led by 133 points on Sunday morning. He leads by 91 now, with a Milwaukee doubleheader and a road-course finale left to survive.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks Today: Alcantara's Streak (Aug. 24)
NRFI picks today, Aug. 24: Alcantara's 11 straight clean firsts, Ashcraft's leaky first frame, and a board where the only edges are YRFI. All 10 games inside.
Spotify Top Artist 2026 Odds: Taylor Swift Is An Afterthought
Spotify has crowned the same U.S. artist three years running. Traders have her at about a seventh of the price of the man who finished behind her every one of those years, and eight AI models priced the whole field without seeing a single quote.
College Football Playoff Semifinal Odds: The Screen Lies
The board says Ohio State is 52 percent to reach the semifinals. Sell it this morning and the best bid is 43, and that bid is backed by 0.59 of a contract.
Leagues Cup Final Odds: Toluca Vs Monterrey, And The 46.5¢ Of MLS That Went To Zero
Kalshi's Leagues Cup board is down to two clubs. Toluca trades at 60 cents and Monterrey at 39 for the September 6 final, and every MLS contract, 46.5 cents of them on August 23, now sits under a cent. Our price-blind panel called the league. It did not call the finalists.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks Today: Bennett's Perfect 14 (Aug. 23)
NRFI picks today, Aug. 23: Jake Bennett's 14 clean firsts, Quantrill near even money in a 64% park, and Coors at 72%. The full 15-game board inside.
NFC North Odds On Kalshi: The Champ Drew The NFL's Hardest Slate
NFC North odds on Kalshi: Lions 34.5 cents, Packers 28, champion Bears 24.5, Vikings 17.5. Eight AI models scored the division without ever seeing a price.
2030 World Cup Odds: Why The USA Is Priced Above Norway
Kalshi opened its 2030 World Cup board the same night the last final ended. Eight AI models priced all 82 teams without seeing a single quote.
51st State Odds: Eight Bills, Not One Has Moved
Kalshi lists eight candidates for the 51st state, from Greenland to Cuba to Puerto Rico. Eight AI models priced the whole board blind, and they disagree with traders about which name belongs on top.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks Today: +113 In San Diego (Aug. 22)
MLB NRFI and YRFI picks for Saturday, August 22: Twins-Padres YRFI +113 leads, with even-money NRFI at Chase Field and the full 15-game first-inning board.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks Today: Rogers' 14 Straight (Aug. 21)
NRFI picks today, Aug. 21: Trevor Rogers' streak meets MLB's quietest park, the Pirates-Dodgers YRFI pays +115 over fair, and Coors runs 73%.
Trump Impeachment Odds: Kalshi Vs The Senate Wall
Kalshi prices Trump's impeachment and removal higher than the arithmetic seems to allow. Removal needs a two-thirds Senate vote and a wall of Republican defections, and five AI models priced the market blind and landed far below it.
Kalshi 2028 Republican VP Odds: The Panel Fades The Favorite
Kalshi makes Marco Rubio the 2028 Republican vice-presidential favorite over JD Vance. A price-blind AI panel scored the field and reads the ticket math.
Draymond Green Next Team Odds: Kalshi Odds
Draymond Green next team odds on Kalshi: Stays with Golden State or Retires trades at 98-99c after his July re-signing. Six AI models scored it price-blind.
Jalen Duren Next Team Odds: Detroit Bounced Back On No News
Detroit's Kalshi contract on Jalen Duren closed Monday at 42 cents, traded as low as 70 on Tuesday morning and closed Tuesday at 88, with nothing reported in between. Marc Spears on ESPN says the standoff is not about money right now.
James Harden Next Team Odds: Kalshi's Cavs Verdict
James Harden next team odds on Kalshi: a Cavaliers re-signing is the heavy favorite, but a price-blind AI panel leaves more room for a pivot, Houston next.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: Bradish's 10 Clean Firsts (Aug. 20)
NRFI picks today, Aug. 20: Yankees-Orioles NRFI -110 (true -118) leads the board behind Bradish's 10 straight clean firsts. Full 9-game NRFI/YRFI board inside.
Nebraska Senate Odds 2026: Ricketts Vs. Osborn On Kalshi
The only public polls of Nebraska show a near-tie, but Kalshi traders and a five-model AI panel both make Pete Ricketts a clear favorite over independent Dan Osborn. Here is where the numbers land, and why they part ways with the polls.
Trey Murphy III Next Team Odds: One Suitor: Kalshi Odds
Kalshi's last trade prices Trey Murphy III to stay in New Orleans at 91 cents while every trade suitor sits at 3 cents or less. A price-blind AI panel scored the same board without seeing a number and landed just below the crowd, with one exception the market prices at a penny.
TX-15 House 2026 Odds: De La Cruz Vs Pulido On Kalshi
TX-15 2026 odds on Kalshi: Bobby Pulido surged to 60 cents on the day's heaviest political volume; our price-blind AI panel still has De La Cruz at 66 percent.
MLB NRFI/YRFI Picks Today: +138 In Milwaukee (Wed., Aug. 19)
MLB NRFI and YRFI picks today, Wednesday, August 19: YRFI values at +106 (Padres-Mets), +125 (D-backs-Red Sox) and +138 (Mariners-Brewers).
Oscar Nominations 2027 Predictions: Kalshi's 47-Film Odds
Which films make the 2027 Best Picture lineup? Kalshi prices 47 contenders and our AI panel scores each one: The Odyssey leads, Project Hail Mary is a fade.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks Today: Wheeler's Quiet First, Soriano's 11-Start Streak And A Twins Runs Trend (Tuesday, Aug. 18)
NRFI picks today, Tuesday August 18: the Blue Jays-Rays YRFI at +125 is the board's best first-inning value, plus a Wheeler NRFI at -104 and a priced-out Twins.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks Today: Junk's Shutout Streak, The Padres' Quiet Bats And Coors Doing Coors (Monday, Aug. 17)
MLB NRFI and YRFI picks today, Monday, August 17: Janson Junk's eight-start first-inning shutout streak, the Padres' MLB-low 38% first-inning rate.
OddsShopper Winner: 850 Losses, a Five-Figure July
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PFA Player Of The Year 2026 Odds: Kalshi's Big Fernandes Bet
Kalshi made Bruno Fernandes a heavy favorite for PFA Player of the Year 2026. Five price-blind AI models agreed on the winner, not the odds or the runner-up.
Justin Gaethje's Next Fight: Kalshi Title Odds
Justin Gaethje has no UFC lightweight title fight booked in 2026. See Kalshi's odds he keeps the belt, and where our AI panel splits.
Liga MX Apertura Champion Odds: The Panel Vs. Kalshi
The models made reigning champion Toluca their No. 1 in August, when Kalshi had it at 10 cents. Toluca now trades at 20.5 and leads the table, and Guadalajara is back on top of the board at 24.5 against a model number of 5.4 percent.
Liga MX Clausura 2027 Odds: América Surges To 29¢ Favorite
América's run to 29¢ atop Kalshi's Liga MX Clausura 2027 board has unwound to an 11¢ midpoint after a September 3-4 sell-down, and five clubs now sit within two cents of the top. A price-blind AI panel scored all 18 clubs.
UFC Welterweight Title Odds 2026: Makhachev's Empty Calendar
No UFC welterweight title fight is booked anywhere on the rest of the 2026 calendar.
NRFI Picks Today: Sale's 0.86 First-Inning ERA (Aug 14)
NRFI picks today for Friday, August 14: three first-inning trends off confirmed starters, led by the Diamondbacks-Braves NRFI at a 2.4% edge behind Chris Sale.
2027 NFL Draft No. 1 Pick Odds: Manning Won, Traders Sold
2027 NFL Draft No. 1 pick odds after Week 2: Arch Manning beat Ohio State and still fell to 24/25 on Kalshi, Dante Moore sank to 8/9, and six AI models priced blind moved the other way on the favorite.
Big 12 Championship Odds 2026: The Panel Vs. Kalshi
Texas Tech trades as a 51-cent favorite in a league that rarely rewards one. Every Big 12 contender priced, and the teams with a case at longer numbers.
Democrats' 2026 Senate Seats: Kalshi Odds & Verdict
Will Democrats retake the Senate majority in 2026? Our five-model panel scores the full Kalshi seat-count board and lands more cautious than the market.
Greenland Acquisition Odds: Will The US Take Any Part?
Kalshi prices US acquisition of any part of Greenland at 22 cents by 2029. Eight AI models blend to 4.6%, and the reason is a single exclusion buried in the contract.
NRFI Picks Today: Guardians-Tigers YRFI At +122 (Aug 13)
MLB NRFI and YRFI picks for Thursday, August 13: three of 18 first-inning sides beat fair value, led by the Guardians-Tigers YRFI at +122 on a 1.9% edge.
NFL Playoff Odds 2026: Why Kalshi Doubts the Eagles
Our AI model panel scored all 32 NFL playoff-qualifier markets on Kalshi, price-blind. See where the models and the market disagree most this season, and why.
Kalshi Champions League Winner 2027 Odds: The Models Won't Pay Barcelona
Kalshi's Champions League winner 2027 odds, all 29 clubs on one board, and the one price our price-blind AI panel refuses to pay: Barcelona at 15.5 cents.
Which World Leaders Will Leave Office In 2026? Kalshi Odds
Which world leaders will leave office in 2026? Kalshi runs live markets on dozens of them, and our five-model panel scored the board price-blind.
Who Will Play In The World Series 2026? Kalshi Leans Dodgers
Who will play in the World Series 2026? Kalshi prices all 225 possible matchups. The board leans Dodgers; a price-blind AI panel likes Yankees vs Brewers.
FL-25 Democratic Primary: Moskowitz Wins, Kalshi Called It
Jared Moskowitz won the FL-25 Democratic primary roughly 63-36 on August 18, 2026. How the settled Kalshi market and our price-blind AI panel graded.
Minnesota Governor Odds: Klobuchar, Kalshi, A 2018 Ghost
Kalshi prices Amy Klobuchar a near-lock for Minnesota's 2026 DFL governor nomination. A six-model AI panel, scored price-blind, lands a few points lower.
NFL Defensive Rookie Of The Year 2026 Odds, Scored
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year 2026 odds, scored: six AI models priced the Kalshi board price-blind, buying David Bailey and fading Caleb Downs.
Offensive Player Of The Year Odds: We Were Wrong On Henry
Eight models scored the Offensive Player of the Year field in August without seeing a price. One week of football has started grading those calls, and the Derrick Henry fade is the one that hurts.
South Carolina Senate Odds: The Collapse Kalshi Ignored
Darline Graham's runoff contract fell 24 points in five days. The Kalshi market on which party actually holds the South Carolina Senate seat moved one.
Texas Senate 2026 Odds: Kalshi's Coin Flip, AI's Red Wall
Kalshi prices the 2026 Texas Senate race near a coin flip. A six-model AI panel fades Democrat James Talarico against Republican Ken Paxton. Here is the split.
TX-15 Odds: Pulido And De La Cruz Trade The Lead
TX-15 odds swung more than 20 points in eight days. Where Kalshi prices Bobby Pulido against Monica De La Cruz now, and where our price-blind panel lands.
NRFI Picks Today: One Hairline Edge On Tuesday's 30-Side Board (Aug 11)
MLB NRFI and YRFI picks for Tuesday, August 11: one of 30 first-inning sides on the 15-game board beats fair value, the Royals-Dodgers NRFI at +102.
NRFI Picks Today: One Edge On Monday's 20-Side Board (Aug 10)
MLB NRFI and YRFI picks for Monday, August 10: one of 20 first-inning sides beats fair value, the Red Sox-Blue Jays YRFI at +120.
NL Rookie Of The Year Odds: Wetherholt Favorite Fades
JJ Wetherholt trades near 51¢, but our 5-model panel splits the lead between Nolan McLean (29.5%) and Sal Stewart (28.5%). Full board, priced.
PrizePicks MLB Strategy: Price Every Line Before You Play
A PrizePicks MLB strategy built on real market prices: de-vig every line, wait for confirmed lineups, and only play squares the numbers say you should.
Kalshi Texas Senate Odds 2026: Paxton Vs. Talarico Verdict
Six AI models scored Kalshi''s 2026 Texas Senate race price-blind, keeping Republican Ken Paxton favored over Democrat James Talarico, just past the market.
US Confirm Aliens Before 2027? Kalshi's Bet on One Sentence
Kalshi's KXALIENS-27 prices US confirmation of aliens at 7 cents before 2027. Our five-model AI panel blends to just 3 percent, the gap explained.
Big Ten Championship Odds 2026: All 18 Teams, Scored
Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana sit within seven cents of each other up top. Season predictions for all 18 teams and why the race is wider than it looks.
Julian Alvarez Next Club Odds: Panel Fades Barcelona
Deadline day passed with Julian Alvarez at Atletico Madrid. Kalshi's 13-club board is still open, and our seven-model panel priced the stay below the market.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: The Value Flips To YRFI (August 9)
MLB NRFI picks today, Sunday, August 9: all three edges sit on the YRFI side, led by Dodgers vs. D-backs Over 0.5 +105 (true +103). Full 15-game board inside.
Aaron Donald Comeback Odds: 'We Back' Didn't Settle The Market
Aaron Donald posted two words on Instagram on Sunday afternoon and Kalshi's comeback contract went from 83 cents to 99 in twenty minutes. He is on the Rams' 53. The cent or two the market is still holding back is the price of one snap.
Do Different Sportsbooks Have Different Odds On The Same Game?
Yes, sportsbooks post different odds on the same game every day. Here is why prices split, how big the gaps get, and what shopping for the best number is worth.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: Three Edges On The August 7 Board
MLB NRFI picks today, Friday, August 7: three no-run sides beat fair value, led by Reds vs. Nationals NRFI +120 (true +112, 3.6% edge).
OddsShopper Winner: 31 Green Days, Not One Jackpot
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Why Did My Bet Get Voided? (And When A Book Can Do It)
Why did my bet get voided? Most voids are routine: a postponed game, a scratched player, a recalculated parlay. The exception is palpable error, explained here.
Why Is My Bet Still Not Graded? Settlement, Explained
Why is my bet still not graded? Where the wait really comes from: official data feeds, stat corrections, slow parlay legs, and what to do about it.
Why Is My Sportsbook Withdrawal Pending? What It Means
Why is my sportsbook withdrawal pending? Most books run a two-stage process: an internal review, then payment transit. Which stage you're in, and what to do.
Why Did My PrizePicks Projection Change? What It Tells You
Why did my PrizePicks projection change? Pick'em numbers are prices: what moves them, how they differ from sportsbook lines.
Why Did My Sportsbook Limit My Account? What It Means
Why did my sportsbook limit my account? What limiting is, the betting patterns that trigger it, and how limited bettors keep an edge by shopping price.
How To Bet NBA Assists Props: A Strategy Guide
How to bet NBA assists props: read on-ball role, pace and the finishers, pounce when a co-creator sits, and shop every major book for the best number.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks Today: Ten Sides Beat Fair On Wednesday's Zero-Hold Board (August 5)
Today's MLB NRFI and YRFI picks for Wednesday, August 5, read off the OddsShopper first-inning board: ten of 30 sides beat their fair (no-vig) price.
Most-Searched Person On Google Odds: Kalshi's Fame Trap
Six AI models scored Kalshi's 2026 most-searched-person board price-blind. They fade Bad Bunny and Trump, back Erling Haaland, and leave a huge field.
NASCAR Cup Champion Odds: Bell Doubled. Hamlin Barely Moved.
Christopher Bell won the Southern 500 after seven second places, and Kalshi's 2026 NASCAR Cup champion market ran him from 11 to 22 cents on race night. Denny Hamlin hit the wall, lost most of his lead, and his price barely blinked. The full post-Darlington board, driver by driver.
NL Champion Odds 2026: Kalshi Crowned the Dodgers Early
An AI panel scored Kalshi's 2026 NL pennant odds price-blind. They fade the Dodgers, back the best-record Brewers, and rate red-hot Atlanta a live third.
DeMar DeRozan Next Team Odds: Kalshi Loves Miami Too Much
Miami trades as the heavy favorite to land DeRozan, but the board carries live prices on every suitor, including a Toronto reunion. Where the value sits.
How To Bet NBA Points Props: A Strategy Guide
How to bet NBA points props: the usage, minutes, pace, and matchup edges that beat a scoring line, and how to find the props priced in your favor.
Mitch McConnell Resign Odds: Death Doesn't Pay On Kalshi
McConnell returned to the Senate on Sept. 14, cast the deciding vote in a 47-46 count and said he is not back to 100 percent. Kalshi's resign-before-Election-Day contract fell from 8 cents to about 3. Nine AI models re-scored it without seeing the price and landed near 4 percent.
MLB Home Run Leader Odds: The Rockies Bat Kalshi Ignores
Three AI models scored Kalshi's 2026 MLB home run leader odds price-blind. They fade favorite Yordan Alvarez and back Hunter Goodman as the value.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks Today: Three Sides Beat Fair On Tuesday's 15-Game Board (August 4)
Today's MLB NRFI and YRFI picks for Tuesday, August 4, read off the OddsShopper first-inning board: three of 30 sides beat their fair (no-vig) price.
NL Manager Of The Year Odds: Murphy 81, We Said 16
Our price-blind panel put Walt Weiss on top in August and Pat Murphy at 15.7 percent. Murphy is 81 cents now and Weiss has fallen to 19. The gap is ours, and it keeps widening.
Oscars Best Picture 2027 Odds: Kalshi Bets the Blockbuster
Six AI models scored Kalshi's 38-film 2027 Best Picture board price-blind: they fade favorite The Odyssey from 40% to 18% and back Palme d'Or winner Fjord.
Premier League Title Odds: Kalshi Wrote Off Aston Villa
Three AI models scored Kalshi's 2026-27 Premier League title odds price-blind. They back Arsenal, call Aston Villa the biggest value, and fade Chelsea.
Free PrizePicks Optimizer Guide
How to use a free PrizePicks optimizer: de-vig the sportsbook price on every pick'em line, read the payout ladder, and only play what clears the bar.
Stefon Diggs Next Team Odds: Kalshi's Lock, AI's Toss-Up
Kalshi makes Washington a 56-cent favorite for Stefon Diggs's next team. Three price-blind AI models blend the Commanders at just 28%, a far more open board.
Vinicius (Vini Jr) Next Club Odds: Kalshi's Ghost Transfer
Kalshi's vini jr next club odds price staying at Real Madrid ~70c, Arsenal ~30c. Our AI model verdict blends staying 76%, Arsenal just 13%. See the board.
Wyndham Championship Winner Odds: Kalshi Bets on Nobody
Three AI models scored Kalshi's Wyndham Championship winner board price-blind. Even Cameron Young is a longshot; the panel likes Aaron Rai more than the market.
Maxx Crosby Next Team Kalshi Odds: Dallas Doubled On A Rumor, Not A Report
Kalshi's Maxx Crosby next-team board repriced into Week 1: Dallas is 23¢ bid, 27¢ ask, doubled overnight from a 12¢ bid on no new report, while the stay-or-retire favorite slid to 61¢. Six price-blind AI models still hold the favorite near 93%.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: Few Edges On The August 3 Board
MLB NRFI picks today, Monday, August 3: all 16 first-inning sides price below fair, closest Blue Jays vs. Astros NRFI +106 (true +108).
World Chess Championship 2026 Odds: Gukesh Trails
World Chess Championship 2026 odds: reigning champ Gukesh is a 29-cent underdog in his own title defense. 8 AI models re-scored it price-blind.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: 0.0% Edge On 2 Sides (8/2)
NRFI picks for MLB's Aug. 2 board: all 30 sides price at or below fair, with two YRFIs hitting a dead-even 0.0% edge. Full 15-game board, ranked.
F1 Constructors Odds: Kalshi Won't Bury Winless Red Bull
Mercedes and Ferrari head a constructors board reshaped by 2026's new regulations. Every team priced, and where the championship market still looks slow.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: Giants Vs. Padres Is The One Edge On July 31
MLB NRFI picks today for Friday, July 31: Giants vs. Padres NRFI at +112 beats its true +108 price by 1.7%, the lone edge on the full 15-game board inside.
OddsShopper Promo Code
The working OddsShopper promo code is SHOP15: 15% off, auto-applied through our link, and it stacks with the 7-day free trial on OddsShopper Pro.
LeBron James Retirement Odds: He Already Answered Kalshi
Kalshi's KXLBJRETIRE-26 prices LeBron James retiring before the 2026-27 NBA season near 1 cent. Our five-model AI panel blends to 3 percent. The gap, explained.
MLB Betting After The All-Star Break: The Biggest Mistake
MLB betting after the All-Star break punishes bettors who price the first-half team. Here's the biggest second-half mistake and how to fix it.
What Is A Futures Bet? Payouts, Vig, And When To Bet
A futures bet is a wager on a season-long or tournament outcome like a champion, MVP, or win total. Learn how futures odds, payouts, and vig work.
Ballon d'Or 2026 Odds: Rodri Got Fit, Kalshi Cut Him Anyway
Rodri has started three straight for Barcelona and played a full 90 on September 13. The comeback our panel said was worth four to six points arrived, and his Kalshi price went down.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: One Real Edge On July 29
MLB NRFI picks today for Wednesday, July 29: one side beats fair with real distance, Brewers vs. Giants YRFI +134 (true +124, +4.2%). Full 15-game board inside.
NFL Betting Strategy: Key Numbers, Timing & Line Shopping
Learn the NFL betting strategy that holds up all season: key numbers, smart timing, line shopping, softer prop markets, and CLV, with the math behind each edge.
Teaser Bets Explained: Points, Payouts & When They're +EV
A teaser bet lets you move the spread or total in your favor across multiple legs for a lower payout. Learn how NFL and NBA teasers work and when they pay.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: Tuesday's Board Prices Out Every Edge For July 28
Today's MLB NRFI and YRFI picks for Tuesday, July 28, read off the OddsShopper first-inning board: a seven-game night card where all 14 sides price below fair.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: One Game Holds The Value For July 27
Today's MLB NRFI picks for Monday, July 27, read off the OddsShopper first-inning board: an efficient 12-game card whose only real value sits on both sides of.
Point Spread Betting Explained: -3.5, +7 & Covers
Point spread betting, explained in plain terms: what -3.5 and +7 actually mean, how covering the spread works, what a push is, and ATS vs moneyline bets.
What Is A Free Bet? How Bonus Bets Actually Work
What is a free bet? A bonus bet pays only your winnings, not your stake, so a $100 free bet is really worth about $70 to $80. Here is how it works.
The Biggest Lie In Sports Betting (And The Truth)
The biggest lie in sports betting is that winning means picking winners. The real edge is getting a better price than the true odds, and here is how.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: The Board For July 26
MLB NRFI picks today (and YRFI) for July 26 off the OddsShopper board: only four of 30 sides beat fair, one clears by more than a point.
NHL Puck Line Betting Explained: Hockey Terms To Know
NHL puck line betting explained: hockey's 1.5-goal spread, plus the moneyline, totals, grand salami, and empty-net swings that shape every NHL bet.
What Does +150 Mean? Plus And Minus Odds Explained
What does +150 mean? What does -110 mean? Plus and minus betting odds explained in plain English, with worked examples for your stake and payout.
How Do Sportsbooks Make Money? The Vig And The Hold
How do sportsbooks make money? The vig (juice) and the hold, explained in plain English: why both sides are -110 and what it means for you.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: First-Inning Value For July 24
Today's MLB NRFI and YRFI picks for Friday, July 24, read off the OddsShopper first-inning board: where the market misprices the opener, led by a top YRFI edge.
Over Under Betting Explained: Totals, Juice & Pushes
Over under betting explained: a totals bet wagers on the combined score, not the winner. How it works, -110 juice, pushes, and the best number to find.
Beat The Sportsbooks With A Small Bankroll
Can you beat the sportsbooks with a small bankroll? Yes, if you bet the best number, size each play to your edge, convert every promo and let the math compound.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: First-Inning Board For July 23
Today's MLB NRFI and YRFI picks for Thursday, July 23, read off the OddsShopper first-inning board: a five-game card priced so tight that every side is a pass.
Sleeper Promo Code Vs Betr Promo Code (2026)
The Sleeper promo code and Betr promo code compared for 2026, with the real terms after playthrough and which pick'em welcome offer fits how you play.
Best Sportsbooks For Arbitrage Betting: What To Look For
The best sportsbooks for arbitrage betting are not one book; the edge is breadth. Here is what makes a book arb-friendly and why scanning every book wins.
How To Bet NBA Rebounds Props: A Strategy Guide
How to bet NBA rebounds props: the minutes, rebound rate, pace, and matchup edges that beat the board, plus how to find the props priced above fair value.
Is Arbitrage Betting Legal? US Rules Explained
Is arbitrage betting legal? Yes. Anywhere sports betting is legal, you are just placing ordinary bets at licensed books. Here is the one real catch.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: First-Inning Board For July 22
Today's MLB NRFI and YRFI picks for Wednesday, July 22, read off the OddsShopper first-inning board: where the market is mispriced and where it is already.
Free Parlay Calculator: Calculate Odds & Payouts
Use a free parlay calculator to turn every leg into one payout, or learn how parlay odds and payouts are calculated by hand, with a worked example and a chart.
What Is A Prop Bet? Proposition Betting Explained
What is a prop bet? It's a wager on something inside a game, like a player's points or strikeouts, not the final score. Here's how prop betting works.
NRFI Picks Today: Only 1 of 15 Games Has Value
NRFI picks today: just 1 of 30 first-inning sides on a 15-game MLB board beats fair value, at +120. See the full board and why the rest are passes.
What Is +EV Betting? The Strategy That Wins Long-Term
Positive EV betting means only taking bets priced better than their true odds. Learn what +EV betting is and why it wins over the long run.
Are Free Bets Worth It? The Stake The Book Keeps
What is a free bet? A stake-not-returned sportsbook credit: win and you keep only the profit. See why $100 converts to about $78 cash and how to keep more.
Best Free Bet Offers: What They're Really Worth
The best free bet offers aren't the biggest number. Judge them by odds limits, expiry, and cash vs. credit, then hedge the good ones into real cash.
OddsShopper Vs OddsJam: Which +EV Tool Wins In 2026?
OddsShopper vs OddsJam in 2026: how the two most-cited +EV betting tools compare on workflow, mass entry, Kelly sizing, coverage, and pricing.
Player Props Betting Explained: Find the +EV Ones
Player props betting explained: what player props are, the main types by sport, why they run softer than game lines, and how to spot the +EV ones fast.
Arbitrage Vs EV Betting: Which Fits Your Bankroll?
Arbitrage vs EV betting compared: a $100 example showing arbitrage's fixed ~$1.75 return against +EV's bigger, riskier upside. See which fits your bankroll.
Cash Out Betting Explained: Is It Worth It?
Cash out betting settles a bet early for a set amount, but the book bakes in a margin. Here's exactly when cashing out is worth it, and when it's a tax.
How To Bet On NFL: A Beginner's Guide To Odds & Bets
New to NFL betting? Learn how to read NFL odds, the main bet types, the weekly rhythm, bankroll basics, and how to place your first pro football bet.
Reverse Line Movement Betting: How To Spot Sharp Money
Reverse line movement betting means the line moves against the public, a sign sharp money sits on the other side. Learn to read it, plus steam moves.
Expected Value Calculator: Find +EV Bets Fast
Use an expected value calculator to spot +EV bets in sports betting: the exact formula, a worked example with real prices, and how to automate it.
2026 Open Championship Betting Preview: Royal Birkdale
A 2026 Open Championship betting preview for Royal Birkdale: how to handicap links golf, wind and the draw, the strokes gained sign test, top-finish staking.
How Much Money Can You Make Arbitrage Betting?
How much money can you make arbitrage betting? Realistic profit ranges, a worked $2,000 bankroll example, and the levers that actually raise your return.
Implied Probability
Implied probability is the win % a price implies. See why -110 means 52.4%, convert American and decimal odds, and spot value.
Line Movement Explained: Steam & Reverse Line Moves
Line movement explained: why betting lines move, how to read steam moves and reverse line movement, and how to use sharp signals without chasing the number.
Will Sportsbooks Ban You for Arbitrage Betting?
Will sportsbooks ban you for arbitrage betting? Often yes. Here is why books limit arbers, what flags your account, and how to stay under the radar longer.
