Sam Smith
Betting Analyst, OddsShopper
Sam Smith writes betting strategy and tool guides for OddsShopper, translating the team’s data and models into practical, +EV-focused advice.
Articles by Sam Smith
PrizePicks Cheat Sheet Today: How to Use a PrizePicks Optimizer
If you're searching for a PrizePicks cheat sheet today or wondering how to use PrizePicks for long-term profits, you're in the right place.
Underdog Fantasy Cheat Sheet: How to Find the Best Picks Today
Want to win more on Underdog Fantasy? This Underdog cheat sheet breaks down the best beginner strategies.
Get a 7-DAY FREE TRIAL Of Portfolio EV Today!
You've probably heard all of our OddsShopper talent mention Portfolio EV countless times. Now get a free trial!
Positive Expected Value Explained: How to Find Positive EV Edges in Sports Betting
The phrase "positive expected value," also called "+EV" for short, gets bandied about a lot in the sports betting space.
What is Portfolio EV? Guide to +EV Sports Betting
At OddsShopper, we're shaking up the sports betting game with our groundbreaking Portfolio EV betting tools.
Sports Betting Software Showdown: Which Tool Is Right for You?
In a market where sportsbooks hold the edge, sharp bettors turn to tools that help flip the odds.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: The Value Flips To YRFI (August 9)
MLB NRFI picks today, Sunday, August 9: all three edges sit on the YRFI side, led by Dodgers vs. D-backs Over 0.5 +105 (true +103). Full 15-game board inside.
Aaron Donald Comeback Odds: The Model Verdict
Aaron Donald comeback odds: Kalshi prices a 2026-27 return in the mid-80s while our price-blind AI panel blends 77.5 percent. The settlement rules explain it.
2026 Ballon d'Or Odds: The AI Model Verdict Vs. The Kalshi Market
Five AI models scored the 2026 Ballon d''Or odds on Kalshi price-blind: they crown Rodri, fade favorite Harry Kane hard, and match the market on Lamine Yamal.
Aliens 2026: Will The U.S. Confirm They Exist Before 2027? Kalshi Model Verdict
Kalshi's KXALIENS-27 prices U.S. confirmation that aliens exist at 7 cents before 2027. Our five-model AI panel blends to just 3 percent. The gap, explained.
Avengers: Doomsday Cast Odds: The AI Model Verdict Vs. Kalshi
Will Tobey Maguire, Hugh Jackman, or Ryan Reynolds appear in Avengers: Doomsday? A price-blind AI panel scores Kalshi''s casting odds and fades the market hard.
Do Different Sportsbooks Have Different Odds On The Same Game?
Yes, sportsbooks post different odds on the same game every day. Here is why prices split, how big the gaps get, and what shopping for the best number is worth.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: Three Edges On The August 7 Board
MLB NRFI picks today, Friday, August 7: three no-run sides beat fair value, led by Reds vs. Nationals NRFI +120 (true +112, 3.6% edge).
How One OddsShopper Winner Turned Portfolio EV Into $774
A real OddsShopper winner banked $774 in a month of July betting with the Portfolio EV tool. See the documented 31-day ledger and save 15% with code CASH15.
Texas Senate Odds 2026: The Paxton Vs. Talarico AI Model Verdict Vs. The Kalshi Market
Six AI models scored Kalshi's 2026 Texas Senate race price-blind, keeping Republican Ken Paxton favored over Democrat James Talarico, just past the market.
Why Did My Bet Get Voided? (And When A Book Can Do It)
Why did my bet get voided? Most voids are routine: a postponed game, a scratched player, a recalculated parlay. The exception is palpable error, explained here.
Why Is My Bet Still Not Graded? Settlement, Explained
Why is my bet still not graded? Where the wait really comes from: official data feeds, stat corrections, slow parlay legs, and what to do about it.
Why Is My Sportsbook Withdrawal Pending? What It Means
Why is my sportsbook withdrawal pending? Most books run a two-stage process: an internal review, then payment transit. Which stage you're in, and what to do.
Why Did My PrizePicks Projection Change? What It Tells You
Why did my PrizePicks projection change? Pick'em numbers are prices: what moves them, how they differ from sportsbook lines.
Why Did My Sportsbook Limit My Account? What It Means
Why did my sportsbook limit my account? What limiting is, the betting patterns that trigger it, and how limited bettors keep an edge by shopping price.
How To Bet NBA Assists Props: A Strategy Guide
How to bet NBA assists props: read on-ball role, pace and the finishers, pounce when a co-creator sits, and shop every major book for the best number.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks Today: Ten Sides Beat Fair On Wednesday's Zero-Hold Board (August 5)
Today's MLB NRFI and YRFI picks for Wednesday, August 5, read off the OddsShopper first-inning board: ten of 30 sides beat their fair (no-vig) price.
Most-Searched Person On Google 2026: Odds And The AI Model Verdict
Six AI models scored Kalshi's 2026 most-searched-person board price-blind. They fade Bad Bunny and Trump, back Erling Haaland, and leave a huge field.
NASCAR Cup Champion Odds 2026: The AI Model Verdict Vs. Kalshi
An AI panel scored Kalshi's 2026 NASCAR Cup champion odds price-blind. It keeps Denny Hamlin first but fades his 40-cent price and backs Tyler Reddick.
NL Champion Odds 2026: The AI Model Verdict Vs. Kalshi
An AI panel scored Kalshi's 2026 NL pennant odds price-blind. They fade the Dodgers, back the best-record Brewers, and rate red-hot Atlanta a live third.
NL Rookie Of The Year Odds 2026: JJ Wetherholt Fades
NL Rookie of the Year odds 2026: Kalshi favors JJ Wetherholt near 51 cents, but our 5-model panel splits the pick between Nolan McLean and Sal Stewart.
DeMar DeRozan Next Team Odds: The AI Model Verdict Vs. The Kalshi Market
A price-blind AI panel scored Kalshi's DeMar DeRozan next-team market. The models fade the market's heavy Miami favorite and make a Toronto reunion the pick.
How To Bet NBA Points Props: A Strategy Guide
How to bet NBA points props: the usage, minutes, pace, and matchup edges that beat a scoring line, and how to find the props priced in your favor.
Minnesota Governor 2026 Odds: The Model Verdict On The DFL Nominee
Kalshi prices Amy Klobuchar a near-lock for Minnesota's 2026 DFL governor nomination. A six-model AI panel, scored price-blind, lands a few points lower.
Mitch McConnell Resign Odds: The AI Model Verdict Vs. The Kalshi Market
Mitch McConnell resign odds on Kalshi, scored by a price-blind AI panel that blends about 6 percent against a 12-cent market, and why the two differ.
MLB Home Run Leader Odds: The AI Model Verdict Vs. Kalshi
Three AI models scored Kalshi's 2026 MLB home run leader odds price-blind. They fade favorite Yordan Alvarez and back Hunter Goodman as the value.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks Today: Three Sides Beat Fair On Tuesday's 15-Game Board (August 4)
Today's MLB NRFI and YRFI picks for Tuesday, August 4, read off the OddsShopper first-inning board: three of 30 sides beat their fair (no-vig) price.
NL Manager Of The Year Odds 2026: The AI Model Verdict Vs. The Kalshi Market
AI models scored Kalshi's 2026 NL Manager of the Year board price-blind: they back Braves boss Walt Weiss, buy Don Mattingly's turnaround, and fade Don Kelly.
Oscars Best Picture 2027 Odds: The AI Model Verdict Vs. The Kalshi Market
Six AI models scored Kalshi's 38-film 2027 Best Picture board price-blind: they fade favorite The Odyssey from 40% to 18% and back Palme d'Or winner Fjord.
Premier League Title Odds: The AI Model Verdict Vs. The Kalshi Market
Three AI models scored Kalshi's 2026-27 Premier League title odds price-blind. They back Arsenal, call Aston Villa the biggest value, and fade Chelsea.
Free PrizePicks Optimizer Guide
How to use a free PrizePicks optimizer: de-vig the sportsbook price on every pick'em line, read the payout ladder, and only play what clears the bar.
Stefon Diggs Next Team Odds: The Model Verdict Vs. Kalshi's Board
Kalshi makes Washington a 56-cent favorite for Stefon Diggs's next team. Three price-blind AI models blend the Commanders at just 28%, a far more open board.
Vinicius Junior Next Club Odds: The Model Verdict Vs. Kalshi's Board
Kalshi prices Vinicius Junior staying at Real Madrid near 70 cents, Arsenal near 30. A price-blind AI panel blends staying at 76 percent and Arsenal at just 13.
Wyndham Championship Winner Odds: The AI Model Verdict Vs. The Kalshi Market
Three AI models scored Kalshi's Wyndham Championship winner board price-blind. Even Cameron Young is a longshot; the panel likes Aaron Rai more than the market.
Maxx Crosby Next Team Odds: The AI Model Verdict Vs. The Kalshi Market
Six AI models scored Kalshi's Maxx Crosby next-team market price-blind. All make staying with the Raiders a bigger favorite than the 70-cent market.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: Few Edges On The August 3 Board
MLB NRFI picks today, Monday, August 3: all 16 first-inning sides price below fair, closest Blue Jays vs. Astros NRFI +106 (true +108).
MLB NRFI Picks Today: Two Sides Price Dead Even On Sunday's 15-Game Board (August 2)
Today's MLB NRFI and YRFI picks for Sunday, August 2, read off the OddsShopper first-inning board: 30 sides across 15 games, two priced exactly at fair.
2026 F1 Constructors Championship Odds: The AI Model Verdict Vs. The Kalshi Market
Five AI models scored the 2026 F1 Constructors odds on Kalshi price-blind: they back Mercedes, keep Ferrari as the lone challenger, and cool on McLaren.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: Giants Vs. Padres Is The One Edge On July 31
MLB NRFI picks today for Friday, July 31: Giants vs. Padres NRFI at +112 beats its true +108 price by 1.7%, the lone edge on the full 15-game board inside.
OddsShopper Promo Code: How To Get 15% Off And A 7-Day Free Trial
The working OddsShopper promo code is SHOP15: 15% off, auto-applied through our link, and it stacks with the 7-day free trial on OddsShopper Pro.
LeBron James Retirement Odds: The Model Verdict Vs. The Kalshi Market
Kalshi's KXLBJRETIRE-26 prices LeBron James retiring before the 2026-27 NBA season near 1 cent. Our five-model AI panel blends to 3 percent. The gap, explained.
MLB Betting After The All-Star Break: The Biggest Mistake
MLB betting after the All-Star break punishes bettors who price the first-half team. Here's the biggest second-half mistake and how to fix it.
What Is A Futures Bet? Payouts, Vig, And When To Bet
A futures bet is a wager on a season-long or tournament outcome like a champion, MVP, or win total. Learn how futures odds, payouts, and vig work.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: One Real Edge On July 29
MLB NRFI picks today for Wednesday, July 29: one side beats fair with real distance, Brewers vs. Giants YRFI +134 (true +124, +4.2%). Full 15-game board inside.
NFL Betting Strategy: Key Numbers, Timing & Line Shopping
Learn the NFL betting strategy that holds up all season: key numbers, smart timing, line shopping, softer prop markets, and CLV, with the math behind each edge.
Teaser Bets Explained: Points, Payouts & When They're +EV
A teaser bet lets you move the spread or total in your favor across multiple legs for a lower payout. Learn how NFL and NBA teasers work and when they pay.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: Tuesday's Board Prices Out Every Edge For July 28
Today's MLB NRFI and YRFI picks for Tuesday, July 28, read off the OddsShopper first-inning board: a seven-game night card where all 14 sides price below fair.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: One Game Holds The Value For July 27
Today's MLB NRFI picks for Monday, July 27, read off the OddsShopper first-inning board: an efficient 12-game card whose only real value sits on both sides of.
Point Spread Betting Explained: How To Read The Spread
Point spread betting explained: what -3.5 and +7 mean, how to cover the spread, what a push is, ATS basics, and when to bet the spread vs moneyline vs totals.
What Is A Free Bet? How Bonus Bets Actually Work
What is a free bet? A bonus bet pays only your winnings, not your stake, so a $100 free bet is really worth about $70 to $80. Here is how it works.
The Biggest Lie In Sports Betting (And The Truth)
The biggest lie in sports betting is that winning means picking winners. The real edge is getting a better price than the true odds, and here is how.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: A Nearly Airtight Board (July 26)
Sunday's MLB NRFI and YRFI picks for July 26, read off the OddsShopper first-inning board: only four of 30 sides beat fair, and one clears by more than a point.
NHL Puck Line Betting Explained: Hockey Terms To Know
NHL puck line betting explained: hockey's 1.5-goal spread, plus the moneyline, totals, grand salami, and empty-net swings that shape every NHL bet.
What Does +150 Mean? Plus And Minus Odds Explained
What does +150 mean? What does -110 mean? Plus and minus betting odds explained in plain English, with worked examples for your stake and payout.
How Do Sportsbooks Make Money? The Vig And The Hold
How do sportsbooks make money? The vig (juice) and the hold, explained in plain English: why both sides are -110 and what it means for you.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: First-Inning Value For July 24
Today's MLB NRFI and YRFI picks for Friday, July 24, read off the OddsShopper first-inning board: where the market misprices the opener, led by a top YRFI edge.
Over Under Betting Explained: How Totals Bets Work
Over under betting explained: a totals bet wagers on the combined score, not the winner. Learn how over/under works, -110 juice, pushes, and the best number.
How To Beat The Sportsbooks With A Small Bankroll
A realistic plan for beating the sportsbooks with a small bankroll: bet the best number, size every play to your edge, and let small wins compound.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: First-Inning Board For July 23
Today's MLB NRFI and YRFI picks for Thursday, July 23, read off the OddsShopper first-inning board: a five-game card priced so tight that every side is a pass.
Sleeper Promo Code Vs Betr Promo Code (2026)
The Sleeper promo code and Betr promo code compared for 2026, with the real terms after playthrough and which pick'em welcome offer fits how you play.
Best Sportsbooks For Arbitrage Betting: What To Look For
The best sportsbooks for arbitrage betting are not one book; the edge is breadth. Here is what makes a book arb-friendly and why scanning every book wins.
How To Bet NBA Rebounds Props: A Strategy Guide
How to bet NBA rebounds props: the minutes, rebound rate, pace, and matchup edges that beat the board, plus how to find the props priced above fair value.
Is Arbitrage Betting Legal? US Rules Explained
Is arbitrage betting legal? Yes. Anywhere sports betting is legal, you are just placing ordinary bets at licensed books. Here is the one real catch.
MLB NRFI Picks Today: First-Inning Board For July 22
Today's MLB NRFI and YRFI picks for Wednesday, July 22, read off the OddsShopper first-inning board: where the market is mispriced and where it is already.
Free Parlay Calculator: Calculate Odds & Payouts
Use a free parlay calculator to turn every leg into one payout, or learn how parlay odds and payouts are calculated by hand, with a worked example and a chart.
What Is A Prop Bet? Proposition Betting Explained
What is a prop bet? It's a wager on something inside a game, like a player's points or strikeouts, not the final score. Here's how prop betting works.
NRFI Picks Today: Only 1 of 15 Games Has Value
NRFI picks today: just 1 of 30 first-inning sides on Tuesday's 15-game MLB board beats fair value, at +120. See the full board and why the rest are passes.
What Is +EV Betting? The Strategy That Wins Long-Term
Positive EV betting means only taking bets priced better than their true odds. Learn what +EV betting is and why it wins over the long run.
What Is A Free Bet? Why A $100 Bonus Is Worth About $78
What is a free bet? A stake-not-returned sportsbook credit: win and you keep only the profit. See why $100 converts to about $78 cash and how to keep more.
Best Free Bet Offers: How to Spot One and Cash It
The best free bet offers aren't the biggest number — judge them by odds limits, expiry, and cash vs. credit, then hedge the good ones into real cash.
OddsShopper Vs OddsJam: Which +EV Tool Wins In 2026?
OddsShopper vs OddsJam in 2026: how the two most-cited +EV betting tools compare on workflow, mass entry, Kelly sizing, coverage, and pricing.
Player Props Betting Explained: Find the +EV Ones
Player props betting explained: what player props are, the main types by sport, why they run softer than game lines, and how to spot the +EV ones fast.
Arbitrage Vs EV Betting: Which Fits Your Bankroll?
Arbitrage vs EV betting compared: a $100 example showing arbitrage's fixed ~$1.75 return against +EV's bigger, riskier upside. See which fits your bankroll.
Cash Out Betting Explained: When Is It Actually Worth It?
Cash out betting lets you settle a bet early for a set amount, but the book bakes in a margin. Learn exactly when cashing out is worth it and when it's a tax.
How To Bet On NFL: A Beginner's Guide To Odds & Bets
New to NFL betting? Learn how to read NFL odds, the main bet types, the weekly rhythm, bankroll basics, and how to place your first pro football bet.
Reverse Line Movement Betting: How To Spot Sharp Money
Reverse line movement betting means the line moves against the public, a sign sharp money sits on the other side. Learn to read it, plus steam moves.
Expected Value Calculator: Find +EV Bets Fast
Use an expected value calculator to spot +EV bets in sports betting: the exact formula, a worked example with real prices, and how to automate it.
2026 Open Championship Betting Preview: Royal Birkdale
A 2026 Open Championship betting preview for Royal Birkdale: how to handicap links golf, wind and the draw, the strokes gained sign test, top-finish staking.
How Much Money Can You Make Arbitrage Betting?
How much money can you make arbitrage betting? Realistic profit ranges, a worked $2,000 bankroll example, and the levers that actually raise your return.
Implied Probability: Convert Betting Odds To A Win %
Implied probability is the win % a price implies. Convert American and decimal odds to a percentage, see why -110 means 52.4%, and learn to spot value.
Line Movement Explained: Steam & Reverse Line Moves
Line movement explained: why betting lines move, how to read steam moves and reverse line movement, and how to use sharp signals without chasing the number.
Will Sportsbooks Ban You for Arbitrage Betting?
Will sportsbooks ban you for arbitrage betting? Often yes. Here is why books limit arbers, what flags your account, and how to stay under the radar longer.
