As of 3:35 AM ET on September 13, 2026, Arch Manning is still the favorite to go first overall in the 2027 NFL Draft, and he just had the strangest Saturday a favorite can have. He beat No. 1 Ohio State. Texas came back from 20 points down in the fourth quarter to win 24-23, the largest fourth-quarter rally ever to beat an AP No. 1, per Sportradar. And his Kalshi contract, which held 31 cents at 4:20 PM that afternoon, closed the night at 24. The book sits at 24 cents bid, 25 asked, meaning 24 is the most anyone will pay for a YES contract right now and 25 is the least anyone will sell one for. For example, at the 25-cent ask, $100 buys contracts that pay about $400 before Kalshi's fee, and only if Manning is the first name called in Washington next spring.
Manning was not the only name that moved. Oregon's Dante Moore lost at Oklahoma State and fell from 14 cents to 8/9. Notre Dame's CJ Carr and Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith each rose five or six cents. Miami's Darian Mensah drifted four cents lower without playing. So we did what this page does when the story moves: we handed the whole board back to the AI panel, with every Week 2 stat line on the card and no prices, and asked each model to split 100 points across the 21 listed players plus the one outcome Kalshi cannot list. On the favorite, the models went the opposite direction from the traders.
The Quick Answer
Kalshi's traders sold Arch Manning on the night he won, from 31 cents Saturday afternoon to a 24/25 book by Sunday morning, and sold Dante Moore to 8/9 after Oregon's loss. Six AI models priced blind moved the other way on Manning: their middle answer rose from 17% on September 10 to 23%, the closest the two sides have been on him since this page launched. The models did not follow the market on the other movers. They hold Moore at 14.5% against an 8-cent bid, keep CJ Carr at 7% against a 17-cent bid, and still put 13.5% on a player who is not listed at all. Every model number here is an estimate, not a prediction of fact. — The Model Verdict panel
The tape from Saturday night, why the models bought what the market sold, the two names where the two sides now disagree hardest, and the full 22-line board with every seat's number are all below.
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What Saturday Night Did To The Favorite
The Manning contract's Saturday is worth walking through minute by minute, because the order of events is the whole point. Texas and Ohio State kicked off at 7:30 PM ET in Austin. Three and a half hours earlier, at 4:03 PM, buyers took about 600 contracts at 31 cents, and at 4:20 PM a single order bought 1,000 more at 31. That was the high-water mark. Ohio State led 10-0 after the first quarter, and at 8:22:59 PM, less than an hour into the game, sellers took every bid from 29 cents down to 27 inside a single second, roughly 2,350 contracts in all. The next prints walked the price down through 25 and 24, and at 8:27 PM the contract traded at 21 cents, its low of the night and the lowest print in the three and a half weeks of daily candles we pulled for this edition.
Then the game turned. Ohio State led 23-3 in the third quarter, per the Associated Press, and its quarter-by-quarter line on the ESPN box score reads 10-10-3-0: one field goal after halftime. Manning finished 23 of 37 for 196 yards by the AP's count (the ESPN box score says 195), one touchdown to Ryan Wingo and one interception, a "fluke" on his second throw of the night in the AP's word, and completed 11 of his last 15 passes across three scoring drives. Two of those completions came on fourth down: 9 yards to tight end Emaree Winston on fourth-and-9, and 12 yards to Emmett Mosley V on fourth-and-6. Hollywood Smothers ran in the winner with 25 seconds left. Steve Sarkisian's summary: "His grit started it."
The market's second thought arrived at 10:44:08 PM, when a one-second sweep bought about 1,000 contracts at 24 cents. More buying followed at 24 and 25 through 11:35 PM and again after midnight at 25 and 26. It was not enough. Saturday's 6,652 contracts were the most the Manning contract has traded in any day since at least July 7, and open interest rose by about 5,900 contracts to roughly 51,000, which means the selling opened new positions rather than just closing old ones. The daily candle closed at 24, the lowest close in the window we pulled, on a day the favorite won the biggest game of his season.
That sequence is why "Manning fell on a win" is only half right. He fell while losing, and by the time the night ended the market had only partly taken it back. The models, working from the finished box score, had no such timing problem.
Why The Models Bought What The Market Sold
Each of the six models read the same card: the 24-23 final, the 196 yards, the 20-point comeback, the two fourth-down conversions, and Fox Sports draft analyst Rob Rang's Sunday-morning grade, which put a top-five draft grade and a Trevor Lawrence comparison on Manning while noting he is "being held to a higher standard than any other quarterback." None of them saw a price. On September 10, the same six seats' middle answer on Manning was 17%. After Week 2 it is 23%.
The reasoning was consistent across seats and it was not about the box score. Kimi wrote, in its first-round board, that "his 196-yard line was ordinary, yet the two fourth-down conversions and Rang's Trevor Lawrence-grade matter more than the box score." Claude Fable called the 196 yards "ordinary" and then wrote that "the 21-point fourth-quarter rally, two fourth-down conversions, and Rang's top-5 grade with a Trevor Lawrence comp are exactly what evaluators weight." GLM's line was that the rally "protected his narrative more than his 196-yard, 1-INT line hurt his grade."
Put the two moves together and the gap that has defined this page since August has nearly closed. On August 13, Manning traded at about 31 cents against a 19% panel blend. On September 10 it was 29.5 cents against 17%. Today it is a 24.5-cent midpoint against 23%. Strip the board's extra 17 cents of overround out of every contract and his price works out to about 21%, which is under the models' number for the first time. On the raw numbers, a market that spent a month a dozen points above the panel on its favorite now sits a point and a half above it; with the overround stripped out, it is two points below.
Dante Moore: The Loss That Cost Him Six Cents
Moore is the mirror image, and the widest models-over-market gap on the board. Oregon lost 39-31 at Oklahoma State, to a team that had not beaten an FBS opponent since September 2024 and was riding a 21-game skid against that level, per the AP. Moore's own line was 14 of 29 for 191 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions, including a 38-yard score to Evan Stewart early in the fourth quarter. Oregon ran 30 times for 90 yards.
The tape tells a story of buying that went wrong before kickoff. At 11:20:20 AM ET, 40 minutes before the scheduled noon ET kickoff that lightning would push back to 1:30, buyers took about 930 Moore contracts in a single second, from 14 cents all the way up to 24. Another 227 went at 20 cents at 12:09 PM. The game finally kicked off at 1:30 PM ET, and by 2:41 PM the same side of the book was being sold: 250 contracts at 16, then a print at 12. By just after 6 PM, sellers had taken him to 9 and 10 cents. The book sits at 8 cents bid, 9 asked, down from 14 on Thursday. Saturday's 2,312 contracts were his busiest day since at least early July.
The panel docked him and stopped. Their middle answer went from 15.2% to 14.5%. Claude Opus put it plainly: the loss "costs him a couple of points, not his senior floor or ESPN's August No. 1 mock." Five of the six seats cited the clean two-touchdown, no-turnover line (Claude Opus was the exception), and four of the six also cited the thing the market appears to be ignoring: he is a senior, so there is no declaration question. At an 8-cent bid the market says about a 7% chance after de-vigging; the panel says twice that.
CJ Carr: The 82-Second Bid
Here is the part of Saturday's tape I keep coming back to. The Manning dump began at 8:22:59 PM. At 8:24:21 PM, 82 seconds later, buyers started taking CJ Carr, and over the next two minutes they bought about 2,265 contracts from 13 cents up to 21. That is nearly the whole of Carr's 2,478-contract Saturday, and it was his busiest day since at least July 11. Whether it was the same account rotating out of one Texas-sized position and into a Notre Dame one, we cannot know from the public tape. The timing is what it is.
Carr earned the attention. He went 16 of 20 for 253 yards and four touchdowns against Rice in a 52-0 win before sitting in the third quarter, and Marcus Freeman said of him, "His decisions are impeccable. Last week he made the right decision 99% of the time." His book now sits at 17 bid, 18 asked, tied with Mensah for second on the board.
Carr's four touchdowns barely registered with the panel. His middle answer went from 6.5% to 7%, and no seat put him above 7.2. He is now the widest market-over-models gap on the board: a 17.5-cent midpoint, about 15% after de-vigging, against 7%. Kimi grouped Carr with Mensah, Maiava and Kienholz as names that "ticked up against weak competition," and DeepSeek's read was that his "efficiency lacks the same NFL buzz" as Mensah's. Rice allowed 478 yards and gained 128. A four-touchdown day against that defense told the models less than it told the traders.
Jeremiah Smith: 164 Yards Against The Wall
Smith caught eight passes for 164 yards and a touchdown in a game his team lost, and the market bought him while he was doing it. From 9:16 to 9:43 PM ET, buyers took nearly 1,000 contracts, from 8 cents up to 17. Another 297 went at 15 and 16 cents at 1:04 AM. His book is 13 bid, 16 asked, a three-cent spread that is the widest among the top five names, so treat the 14.5-cent midpoint as an estimate rather than a firm quote.
Rang's assessment is as strong as any this page has quoted for any player: he called Smith "the top NFL prospect in the country and one of the highest graded prospects" he has evaluated in nearly three decades, with a Julio Jones comparison. The panel raised Smith too, from 6.2% to 8%, and then ran into the same wall the last edition described. No wide receiver has gone first overall since Keyshawn Johnson in 1996. As Claude Opus put it, 8% "already assumes a QB-set team" picks first. Kimi reached for the sharpest example: "Calvin Johnson lost to JaMarcus Russell." A 13-cent bid says the market is more willing than the models to believe 2027 is the year the wall comes down.
Mensah, Mestemaker And The New Name
Three smaller moves round out the weekend. Darian Mensah did not play Saturday; Miami's 77-7 win over Florida A&M was Thursday, and his next start is Friday, September 18, at Wake Forest. His contract drifted anyway, from a 21.5-cent midpoint on September 10 to 17 bid, 18 asked, on about 350 contracts in 24 hours. The last trade was 21, but the book is what you can actually deal at. The panel held him almost exactly where it had him, 13% then and 12.2% now, and several seats named him the player the crowd is most likely to under-rate.
Drew Mestemaker, who beat Moore's Ducks with 317 passing yards, two touchdown passes, two interceptions, 109 rushing yards and the 10-yard touchdown run that made it 36-31, traded about 2,100 contracts in 24 hours, the last at 11 cents, and his book settled at 5 bid, 7 asked. Every seat went the other way, and his middle answer fell from 1.8% to 0.6%. That is the sharpest disagreement in the tail of this board: a 6-cent midpoint against a number a tenth of that size. A week earlier he had thrown two interceptions in a loss at Tulsa, and the models read the two games together.
The new name is Louisville quarterback Lincoln Kienholz, an Ohio State transfer whom Kalshi added on September 12. He has yet to trade: the book is 0 bid, 4 asked. He threw for 332 yards on 16 of 21 against FCS Villanova on Friday, with four first-half touchdowns, two through the air and two on the ground, a week after 307 yards and three total touchdowns in a 41-38 loss to Ole Miss. His 1.5% middle answer from the panel is more than it gave nine names that were on the board before him.
The Board
Here is the full view. Prices as of 3:35 AM ET, September 13, 2026. "Kalshi Sep 13" is the midpoint of the best bid and best ask at that moment, with the bid and ask in parentheses, and "Kalshi Sep 10" is that edition's midpoint. "Models" is the seat median: the middle of the six models' numbers after a revision round in which each read the others' anonymized reasoning. The September 10 model column is recomputed from the same six seats' September 10 numbers, not from that edition's published nine-seat blend, so the two model columns compare like with like. The 21 Kalshi midpoints add up to about 117 cents rather than 100. Six names have no bid at all, just a one-cent ask, and Kienholz has no bid against a four-cent ask, so treat those rows as displayed prices, not quotes.
| Player | Position, school | Kalshi Sep 13 (mid, bid/ask) | Kalshi Sep 10 | Models Sep 13 | Models Sep 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arch Manning | QB, Texas | 24.5¢ (24/25) | 29.5 cents | 23% | 17% |
| Darian Mensah | QB, Miami | 17.5¢ (17/18) | 21.5 cents | 12.2% | 13% |
| CJ Carr | QB, Notre Dame | 17.5¢ (17/18) | 12.5 cents | 7% | 6.5% |
| Jeremiah Smith | WR, Ohio State | 14.5¢ (13/16) | 8.5 cents | 8% | 6.2% |
| Dante Moore | QB, Oregon | 8.5¢ (8/9) | 14 cents | 14.5% | 15.2% |
| Drew Mestemaker | QB, Oklahoma State | 6¢ (5/7) | 4.5 cents | 0.6% | 1.8% |
| Julian Sayin | QB, Ohio State | 4.5¢ (4/5) | 4.5 cents | 1.7% | 4.5% |
| Trinidad Chambliss | QB, Ole Miss | 4.5¢ (4/5) | 4.5 cents | 1% | 1.8% |
| LaNorris Sellers | QB, South Carolina | 3.5¢ (3/4) | 4.5 cents | 3.5% | 2% |
| Jayden Maiava | QB, USC | 2.5¢ (2/3) | 2.5 cents | 3.5% | 4.5% |
| Dylan Stewart | DE, South Carolina | 2.5¢ (2/3) | 2.5 cents | 2% | 2% |
| Sam Leavitt | QB, LSU | 2.5¢ (2/3) | 2.5 cents | 1.2% | 1.5% |
| John Mateer | QB, Oklahoma | 1.5¢ (1/2) | 1.5 cents | 1.5% | 1.2% |
| Nico Iamaleava | QB, UCLA | 2¢ (1/3) | 0.5 cents | 0.8% | 1% |
| Lincoln Kienholz | QB, Louisville | 2¢ (0/4) | not listed | 1.5% | not scored |
| DJ Lagway | QB, Baylor | 0.5¢ (0/1) | 0.5 cents | 1.5% | 1.2% |
| Cam Coleman | WR, Texas | 0.5¢ (0/1) | 0.5 cents | 0.8% | 1.5% |
| Jordan Seaton | OT, LSU | 0.5¢ (0/1) | 0.5 cents | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| Quincy Rhodes Jr. | DL, Arkansas | 0.5¢ (0/1) | 0.5 cents | 0.5% | 0.8% |
| Leonard Moore | CB, Notre Dame | 0.5¢ (0/1) | 0.5 cents | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Ryan Williams | DL, Missouri State | 0.5¢ (0/1) | 0.5 cents | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Any Unlisted Player | no contract on the board | no contract | no contract | 13.5% | 16.2% |
The row that matters most is still the top one, but for the opposite reason from last week. On September 10 the six-seat median sat well under Manning's price; today the median sits 1.5 points under his midpoint and above his de-vigged number. The second most important row is Moore's, where a 5.5-cent drop in the market met a 0.7-point drop from the models. The third is Sayin's: the models cut him from 4.5% to 1.7% on Rang's third-round grade and "lacks in arm strength" note, while his 4.5-cent midpoint did not move. Each model's own board sums to a full 100 points, but the middle answer is taken row by row, so the Models Sep 13 column totals 99.7.
These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or betting advice. Kalshi event contracts trade on a CFTC-regulated exchange; you must be 18+ and in an eligible state to participate. New to event markets on this exchange? Start with our guide to betting the NFL on Kalshi, which covers settlement and spreads in one read.
Every Seat's Number
Six of the panel's nine seats were reachable for this edition: the Claude trio plus GLM, Kimi and DeepSeek. GPT, Gemini and Grok were not, so their September 10 numbers are not carried here and the comparison column above uses only these six. Here is every model's number for every outcome after the revision round, listed by the middle answer. All six put Manning between 21 and 24.5, a wider band than the 16-to-18.5 the same seats held on September 10, and the whole spread on Moore is 1.5 points.
| Player | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | GLM | Kimi | DeepSeek | Middle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arch Manning | 22 | 21.5 | 24 | 24 | 24.5 | 21 | 23 |
| Dante Moore | 15 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 15.5 | 14 | 14.5 |
| Any Unlisted Player | 15 | 15.5 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 13.5 |
| Darian Mensah | 12 | 12 | 14 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12 | 12.2 |
| Jeremiah Smith | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8.5 | 9 | 8 |
| CJ Carr | 7 | 7 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| LaNorris Sellers | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 3 | 4 | 3.5 |
| Jayden Maiava | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3 | 3.5 | 4 | 3.5 |
| Dylan Stewart | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | 2 | 2 |
| Julian Sayin | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 1.8 | 2 | 1.7 |
| Lincoln Kienholz | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 2 | 1.5 |
| DJ Lagway | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| John Mateer | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Sam Leavitt | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Trinidad Chambliss | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 1 | 1 |
| Jordan Seaton | 0.8 | 1 | 0.6 | 1 | 0.8 | 1 | 0.9 |
| Cam Coleman | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Nico Iamaleava | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1 | 0.4 | 1 | 0.8 |
| Drew Mestemaker | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Quincy Rhodes Jr. | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Leonard Moore | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Ryan Williams | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: Claude Fable 88% on 2,983 graded calls · Claude Opus 87% on 3,072 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 86% on 3,048 graded calls · GLM 83% on 4,020 graded calls · Kimi 86% on 4,394 graded calls · DeepSeek 84% on 4,083 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
Every number in this piece gets graded in public once the market settles, on the full graded scoreboard.
More live boards from the same panel: NFL Draft 2027 odds, which covers Kalshi's team-to-pick-first market, the other half of this question; Heisman Trophy 2026; and Super Bowl 2027. Prices on this page were fetched September 13, 2026.
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Every market above links to our full AI model verdict; browse them all on the OddsShopper prediction markets hub, and see how every settled call actually scored on the full graded scoreboard.
Where The Panel Changed Its Mind
Each model priced the board alone first, then read the other five boards and their reasoning with the names stripped off, and could revise. The revision round did real work on Manning: the first-round middle answer was about 20% (20.4 with each seat's board scaled to 100 points), and the second-round answer was 23%. Three seats explain most of that.
Claude Sonnet made the biggest single move on the board, taking Manning from 14.5% to 24%. Its first-round board had trimmed him for the interception and the 196-yard line in a game Texas trailed by 20. After reading the others, it reversed:
Manning leads at 24%: Rang's top-5/Trevor Lawrence grade and the 21-point comeback over No.1 Ohio State outweigh the pedestrian 196-yard line; I discounted only modestly for junior declaration risk since a legitimate No.1 case makes staying in school unlikely. — Claude Sonnet
DeepSeek went the other direction and met it in the middle. It opened with Manning at 29%, Moore at 19% and only 6.4% on an unlisted player, then cut Manning to 21, Moore to 14 and nearly doubled the unlisted line to 12:
Manning's 21-point fourth-quarter comeback against No. 1 Ohio State, despite a 196-yard line, reinforced his frontrunner status and Rang's Trevor Lawrence comp, so I kept him at 21% (discounted ~3% for junior declaration risk). — DeepSeek
Claude Opus had opened with the largest unlisted number on the panel, 22.7%, and came down to 15.5% while adding five points to Manning. Its argument for keeping the unlisted line fat is the structural one this page has carried since August:
Kalshi's non-QB coverage is one edge, one tackle, two DL and a corner — that cannot contain the January edge/tackle risers, and Mendoza himself was a 2026 riser. — Claude Opus
Kimi voiced the sharpest reservation about Manning while still landing at the panel's highest number on him, 24.5: "Manning's family pattern of staying in school prices a ~30% return risk, capping him."
[Editor's note: the data card did not cover any Manning family school decisions; that sentence is the model's own background knowledge and is not verified here. Manning is a junior and would need to declare.]
Dark Horses The Panel Won't Dismiss
Below the top five sit a handful of names the models moved on this week, plus one outcome that has no name at all.
- Any Unlisted Player (13.5%). Still the models' third-largest number, and still a line with no contract. It came down from 16.2% as the board added Kienholz and as more of the class played real games, but no seat went below 12%. The clearest named example remains Texas offensive tackle Trevor Goosby, whom Bleacher Report's September 7 mock put fifth overall.
- LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina (3.5% Vs 3/4). The one row where the two sides swapped places this week. He did not play; South Carolina had no game on ESPN's Week 2 FBS scoreboard. The market marked him down a cent, from a 4.5-cent midpoint to a 3/4 book, while the panel marked him up from 2% to 3.5%, so the models now sit between his bid and his ask. Claude Sonnet said the crowd is likely "underrating Sellers, whose dual-threat production is real even without a signature Week 2."
- Jayden Maiava, QB, USC (3.5% Vs 2/3). The market did not move on five touchdown passes. His midpoint was 2.5 cents on September 10 and his book is 2/3 now, after a 49-30 win over Louisiana in which he went 19 of 29 for 261 yards with an interception; USC is 3-0. The models eased him from 4.5% to 3.5%, still half a point above his ask.
- Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State (1.7% Vs 4/5). The steepest cut on the board, and the market barely noticed. The models went from 4.5% to 1.7% on Rang's third-round grade while his 4.5-cent midpoint did not move. He threw for 278 yards on 17 of 32 with a touchdown and a final-play interception, and completed five passes after halftime. Claude Fable said Rang's "third-round grade and arm-strength note are close to disqualifying despite 3,610 yards."
- Nico Iamaleava, QB, UCLA (0.8% Vs 1/3). The other row where the sides crossed, and a hollow one. The market widened him from a 0.5-cent midpoint to a 1/3 book on 23 contracts in the 24 hours to the fetch, the last of them at 1 cent, while the models trimmed him from 1% to 0.8%. A wide book on that little volume is a missing order, not a view.
- Dylan Stewart, DE, South Carolina (2% Vs 2/3). Unchanged on both sides: 2% from the panel, a 2.5-cent midpoint on September 10 and a 2/3 book today. He is still the edge-rusher exception, since five of the seven non-quarterback No. 1 picks since 2000 were defensive ends.
What Moves This Board Next
Three things would move these numbers, and the first one arrives Friday.
- Mensah At Wake Forest, Friday, September 18. This is the one only this page can point at. Mensah lost four cents since Thursday's edition on about 500 contracts, and did not play Saturday, while the panel held him within a point of where it had him. A price that drifted on no news gets its first real test Friday, and a conference road game at night is a test either way. Claude Sonnet called the league-source buzz around him "exactly the kind of league-source signal that moves boards."
- Manning's October. Claude Fable, GLM and DeepSeek all named the same swing: a dominant run through SEC defenses "collapses the top tier toward him," in Fable's words, while a struggle "opens the door for Moore or Mensah," in GLM's. Saturday showed how the market trades him live: it sells the deficit and buys the finish, so the next close game will move this contract before the final does.
- The Shape Of The NFL Basement. Claude Opus's biggest pre-November mover is "four to six weeks of NFL results identifying the tanking team's positional need." Until a bottom-three team and its quarterback room come into focus, every name here is priced without the one fact that decides the pick. Manning's declaration, which Kimi priced as a real risk and the Claude seats priced as small, is the winter version of the same unknown.
Settlement Timeline
| Next Test | Friday, September 18: Miami (Darian Mensah) at Wake Forest |
| Draft Order | Set by the 2026 NFL regular season; the worst record picks first unless the pick is traded |
| The Pick | 2027 NFL Draft, April 29 to May 1, 2027, on the National Mall in Washington |
| Contract Expiration | KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1, expected May 15, 2027 |
| Settles | YES only for the player taken first overall; all other listed players settle NO |
This page is re-scored when the story moves, and every price and model number above carries a September 13, 2026 stamp.
More on this: NFL 2026 on Kalshi: Every Board We Track · NFL Coach Of The Year Odds: Nobody Is Buying Andy Reid · NFL Picks Hub: Week 1 Odds, Win Totals, Props · NFL Win Totals 2026: Kalshi Vs DraftKings Vs FanDuel · Kalshi Vs Polymarket NFL: Why The Cheaper Fee Loses
The Bottom Line
The favorite won and got cheaper, which sounds like a market mistake until you look at the clock. Manning's contract was sold while Ohio State led, printed 21 cents with the comeback still ahead, and was only partly bought back by the time the night ended. The six models, reading the finished night instead of a live scoreboard, went from 17% to 23% on him and landed within two cents of a market that had spent a month a dozen points above them. The two sides have not agreed on Manning like this before.
Where they still disagree is more useful. The market sold Dante Moore to 8 cents on a loss in which he threw two touchdowns and no interceptions; the models hold him at 14.5%. The market bought CJ Carr to 17 cents on four touchdowns against Rice; the models hold him at 7%. Both sets of numbers carry a September 13, 2026 stamp, and the next chance for either side to be wrong arrives Friday night at Wake Forest. To be explicit, every model number here is an estimate and not financial advice, and the running record of how these models do when markets settle lives on the public scoreboard linked above.
