NFL Coach Of The Year Odds: The Market Has Andy Reid At 1.5¢
Updated August 9, 2026 · 12 min read · by Jake Hari
The Quick Answer
NFL Coach of the Year odds on Kalshi open with two first-year hires: John Harbaugh at 11.5 cents in his first season with the New York Giants, and Jesse Minter at 10.5 cents in his first season running the Baltimore Ravens. Seven AI models scored all 33 contracts on the board without being shown a single price, and they land close to the market on that top pair. Where they break hard is further down. The market prices Andy Reid at 1.5 cents; the panel puts him at 7.0%, the third-best number on its board. The market's third choice, Kellen Moore at 8.5 cents, is the panel's 17th. The full board, every model's number, and the 36-year ledger that reshaped the panel's thinking are below.
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All prices in this piece were read from Kalshi on August 9, 2026, and are quoted as the midpoint between the bid and the ask. This is a long-dated market on a regular season that has not kicked off. The contract runs to March 30, 2027, and the award is announced about six months from now, so the numbers move; the page gets re-scored when the story does.
One note before the board. The 33 contracts on this event sum to 120.5 cents, not 100. That 20.5-cent excess is the board's overround: on a field this wide, the quoted midpoints add up to well past the 100 cents a complete set of true probabilities would total. It is not a fee the exchange charges, but it does mean each raw price sits above the normalized probability it works out to once the excess is divided out. Where this article compares the market to the panel, it uses both the raw price and the de-vigged figure, which is the price divided by 1.205.
The Board
| Coach | Team (2025 record) | Market | Panel blend |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Harbaugh | New York Giants (4-13) | 11.5¢ | 8.8% |
| Jesse Minter | Baltimore Ravens (8-9) | 10.5¢ | 8.3% |
| Andy Reid | Kansas City Chiefs (6-11) | 1.5¢ | 7.0% |
| Zac Taylor | Cincinnati Bengals (6-11) | 2.5¢ | 6.0% |
| Robert Saleh | Tennessee Titans (3-14) | 5.5¢ | 5.8% |
| Dan Quinn | Washington Commanders (5-12) | 1.5¢ | 5.4% |
| Kevin Stefanski | Atlanta Falcons (8-9) | 3.5¢ | 5.2% |
| Todd Monken | Cleveland Browns (5-12) | 5.5¢ | 4.9% |
| Klint Kubiak | Las Vegas Raiders (3-14) | 5.5¢ | 4.3% |
| Mike McCarthy | Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) | 3.5¢ | 3.7% |
| Kevin O'Connell | Minnesota Vikings (9-8) | 4.5¢ | 3.5% |
| Dan Campbell | Detroit Lions (9-8) | 2.5¢ | 3.3% |
| Mike LaFleur | Arizona Cardinals (3-14) | 1.5¢ | 3.1% |
| Aaron Glenn | New York Jets (3-14) | 4.5¢ | 2.8% |
| Jeff Hafley | Miami Dolphins (7-10) | 2.5¢ | 2.7% |
| Joe Brady | Buffalo Bills (12-5) | 3.5¢ | 2.3% |
| Kellen Moore | New Orleans Saints (6-11) | 8.5¢ | 2.2% |
| Brian Schottenheimer | Dallas Cowboys (7-9-1) | 6.5¢ | 2.0% |
| Dave Canales | Carolina Panthers (8-9) | 1.5¢ | 2.0% |
| Shane Steichen | Indianapolis Colts (8-9) | 3.5¢ | 1.8% |
| Ben Johnson | Chicago Bears (11-6) | 5.5¢ | 1.6% |
| Matt LaFleur | Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) | 1.5¢ | 1.4% |
| Todd Bowles | Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) | 1.5¢ | 1.3% |
| Jim Harbaugh | Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) | 5.5¢ | 1.3% |
| Nick Sirianni | Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) | 0.5¢ | 1.0% |
| Sean McVay | Los Angeles Rams (12-5) | 1.5¢ | 0.9% |
| DeMeco Ryans | Houston Texans (12-5) | 2.5¢ | 0.9% |
| Kyle Shanahan | San Francisco 49ers (12-5) | 3.5¢ | 0.9% |
| Liam Coen | Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) | 3.5¢ | 0.6% |
| Sean Payton | Denver Broncos (14-3) | 1.5¢ | 0.4% |
| Mike Macdonald | Seattle Seahawks (14-3) | 2.5¢ | 0.4% |
| Mike Vrabel | New England Patriots (14-3) | 0.5¢ | 0.4% |
| Tie/Co-Winners | shared award | 0.5¢ | 0.4% |
The panel also priced a 34th outcome that has no contract at all, covered in the market card below. The 33 blends above sum to 96.6%, and that 34th outcome brings the panel's total to 98.6%. The panel's board is an equal-weight average of seven seat boards, each of which was accepted within a tolerance band around 100 rather than forced onto it exactly, so the average lands a shade under 100.
Every Seat's Number
The five coaches the panel rates furthest above the market, the four it rates furthest below, and the two names at the top of the board for reference, with each model's estimate after the revision round. Harbaugh and Minter are here because they lead the market, not because the panel disputes them; on both, the models land close to the price.
| Coach | Market (de-vigged) | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | ChatGPT | GLM | Kimi | DeepSeek | Blend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Reid | 1.2% | 8.0 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 7.0% |
| Dan Quinn | 1.2% | 5.5 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.4% |
| Zac Taylor | 2.1% | 5.5 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 6.0% |
| Kevin Stefanski | 2.9% | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 5.2% |
| Mike LaFleur | 1.2% | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 3.1% |
| John Harbaugh | 9.5% | 8.5 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 8.8% |
| Jesse Minter | 8.7% | 7.0 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 11.0 | 8.3% |
| Brian Schottenheimer | 5.4% | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0% |
| Ben Johnson | 4.6% | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6% |
| Jim Harbaugh | 4.6% | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.3% |
| Kellen Moore | 7.1% | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.2% |
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: Claude Fable 82% on 450 graded calls · Claude Opus 84% on 514 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 82% on 498 graded calls · GPT 83% on 3,225 graded calls · GLM 81% on 2,307 graded calls · Kimi 83% on 2,285 graded calls · DeepSeek 80% on 2,332 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Every number in this piece gets graded in public once the market settles, on the full graded scoreboard.
Seven of the panel's eight seats scored this board. Each one saw the same fetched data card and no price at all, then read the other six anonymized boards and revised.
More live boards from the same panel: NFL MVP 2026, where Josh Allen leads at 10.5¢ · Super Bowl LXI, where the Rams sit at 15.5¢ · NFL win totals for all 32 teams. Prices fetched August 9, 2026.
Free: The Weekly PM Market Brief — the 8-model panel's graded record, the week's biggest market-vs-model gaps, and what's spiking next. One email, Sundays.
The Market Card
The event is KXNFLCOTY-27 on Kalshi. Each contract reads the same way, with only the name changing: "If John Harbaugh wins the Pro Football AP Coach of the Year in the 2026-2027 season, then the market resolves to Yes." The board opened March 31, 2026 and carries an expected expiration of March 30, 2027.
The award is the Associated Press NFL Coach of the Year, voted by a panel of AP media members. Since 2011 it has been announced at the NFL Honors ceremony held during Super Bowl week. Kalshi's contract terms for this award family add three mechanics worth knowing: co-winners resolve the Tie/Co-Winners contract Yes and every other contract No, resolution follows the official announcement rather than media reports or leaked results, and revisions made after expiration do not count.
There is one structural quirk that matters more than any of that. This board has no "Other" contract. It lists 32 head coaches and a tie, and nothing else. If the award goes to someone not on it, all 33 contracts resolve No. That is not a hypothetical: in 2012 Bruce Arians won this award while serving as interim head coach of the Indianapolis Colts for 12 games, and a board shaped like this one would have paid no listed Yes contract. The panel priced that possibility as a 34th outcome and blended it at 2.0%, roughly one year in fifty.
Sportsbooks price the same award in American odds rather than cents. Our futures-side read on that version of the board, and the voting pattern behind it, is in NFL Coach of the Year odds 2026.
Kalshi contracts are CFTC-regulated event contracts, not sportsbook wagers, and trading is 18+. Availability varies by platform and location.
John Harbaugh, New York Giants: The Favorite With A Precedent
Harbaugh is the most-backed name on the board at 11.5 cents, and the case is almost mechanical. He inherits a team that went 4-13 with a points differential of minus 58, which leaves 13 games of possible improvement, and he arrives with 18 seasons and a 180-113 career record behind him. The AP has rewarded exactly this profile repeatedly.
It has rewarded it at this franchise specifically. Three coaches have won Coach of the Year with the Giants since 1990, and all three won it in their first season with the team: Dan Reeves in 1993, Jim Fassel in 1997, and Brian Daboll in 2022. Daboll's Giants had gone 4-13 the year before he arrived, the identical record this Giants team just posted. Four of the seven seats cited that precedent by name in their reasoning, and four raised their Harbaugh number in the revision round.
The panel still lands slightly under the market at 8.8% against a de-vigged 9.5%, which is close to agreement. Harbaugh is not where the models think the market is wrong.
Jesse Minter, Baltimore Ravens: The Best Roster Any First-Year Coach Inherited
Minter is 10.5 cents and has never been an NFL head coach. What separates him from the other five first-time hires is what he walked into: a Ravens team that went 8-9 despite outscoring its opponents by 26 points, with Lamar Jackson on the roster. Of the ten coaches starting a first season with a new team this year, none inherits a comparable quarterback situation.
Several seats made the same argument in different words: an 8-9 base gives nine games of headroom, first-year coaches collect the voter credit for a jump, and the roster is already close. DeepSeek put him at 11.0%, the single highest number any seat gave any coach. The panel blend of 8.3% sits within half a point of the de-vigged 8.7%.
Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs: A Penny And A Half Against 7%
This is the board's widest disagreement, and it runs in the direction the market almost never gets challenged on. Kalshi prices Reid at 1.5 cents, which de-vigs to 1.2%. The panel blends him at 7.0%, its third-highest number. That is a factor of roughly six, and every one of the seven seats put him at 5.8% or above.
The models are reading the same two facts:
- The record understated the team. Kansas City went 6-11 while outscoring its opponents by 34 points, the 12th-best differential in the league. Only three teams finished 2025 with a losing record and a positive differential, and the Chiefs were one of them.
- The quarterback is working back. ESPN's injury report lists Patrick Mahomes as Questionable with a knee ACL injury, a designation dated August 7, 2026.
Read together, those describe a team whose record understated it and whose central player is working back. Eleven games of headroom sit above a 6-11 finish. The panel's argument is that if Mahomes plays a full season, the Chiefs' win total moves a long way, and the AP has handed this award to a returning coach on a bounce-back before.
There is a real counterargument, and the panel made it against itself. Voters discount incumbents. Reid has coached this team since 2013, so a recovery would read to some of the electorate as a roster getting healthy rather than a coach doing something. Claude Fable cut its Reid number in the revision round for precisely that reason. The market may also simply be pricing the ACL designation more harshly than the models did.
There is also a tension inside Kalshi's own pricing. Here is what the same exchange charges on Kansas City across three boards, all read August 9, 2026:
| Kansas City contract | Price | Rank in its field |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Champion | 11.5¢ | 3rd of 16 |
| Super Bowl LXI winner | 5.5¢ | 5th of 32 |
| Andy Reid, Coach of the Year | 1.5¢ | tied with 7 other coaches, bottom third of 33 |
A market that expects Kansas City to contend is, on the coaching award that rewards contending after a losing year, paying a penny and a half.
Kellen Moore, New Orleans Saints: The Panel's Hardest Fade
The market's third choice is the panel's 17th. Moore sits at 8.5 cents, 7.1% de-vigged, and the blend is 2.2%. Six of seven seats put him at or below 2.5%.
The panel's objection is the ledger. Moore is entering his second season with the Saints, so he collects none of the first-year attribution bonus that lifts Harbaugh, Minter and Stefanski. His team went 6-11 and was outscored by 77 points, which is a weaker starting point than the raw record suggests. Nothing in the fetched data distinguishes him from a dozen coaches priced at a third of his number.
The same logic drives the panel's other fades. Ben Johnson at 5.5 cents and Jim Harbaugh at 5.5 cents both coach teams that went 11-6. A team that wins 11 games has six games of room, and the ledger says winners are made in bigger jumps than that.
Brian Schottenheimer is the same objection in a different shape, and the panel's second-widest fade. Dallas is the rare team whose 7-9-1 record sits in the ledger's favored 4-to-8-win band, so the headroom argument works. What does not work is the attribution: he is entering his second season, and a Cowboys team that was outscored by 40 points needs to fix a defense that allowed 511. The panel put him at 2.0% against a de-vigged 5.4%, and no seat went above 3.0%.
Where The Panel Changed Its Mind
Every one of the seven seats revised its board after reading the others anonymously. Two revisions were substantive enough to move the article's conclusions.
I re-read the ledger's PRIOR-year column rather than just the improvement deltas, and it corrects a real error in my round-1 board: only 4 of 36 winners came off a season with 3 or fewer wins (1-15, 3-13, 3-13, 2-14), while the modal winner started from 4-8 wins. I had over-weighted the 3-14 tier on headroom alone, so I trimmed Saleh 7.5 to 5.5, Kubiak 5.0 to 3.5, M. LaFleur 4.5 to 3.0 and Glenn 4.0 to 2.5, and moved that weight to first-year coaches in the 5-9 win band. — Claude Opus
That correction checks out against the ledger. Of the 36 winners since 1990, exactly four came off a season with three or fewer wins, while 25 of 36 came off a 4-to-8-win season. Headroom alone is not the signal. A team has to be bad enough to improve and good enough to get there, and the 3-14 clubs on this board are mostly too far away.
I revised Zac Taylor sharply up (from ~1% to 6.0%): forecasters A, B and F correctly identified that I underweighted the clearest non-first-year bounce-back profile on the card — a 6-11 team that scored 414 points with Joe Burrow on the roster has +11 of headroom and needs only defensive regression, the exact 2009 Marvin Lewis Bengals precedent. — Kimi
[Editor's note: the seat's own round-one number on Zac Taylor was 2.5%, not the "~1%" it recalls here. The direction and the reasoning stand; the starting point was higher than stated.]
That precedent is in the ledger too: Marvin Lewis took the 2008 Bengals from 4-11-1 to 10-6 and won the award in 2009. Cincinnati scored 414 points last season and allowed 492, which is a defense problem sitting on top of a functioning offense.
One seat held its ground and said why:
I held John Harbaugh at 10.0 against the group drift downward. 4-13 with 18 seasons of pedigree is the 2011 Jim Harbaugh and 2008 Mike Smith template and no one argued against it. — Kimi
[Editor's note: two things in this one. The comparisons are directional, not literal: the ledger has Jim Harbaugh's 2011 49ers coming off 6-10 and Mike Smith's 2008 Falcons coming off 4-12, and both men were first-year hires rather than coaches with 18 seasons behind them. The template Kimi is describing, a proven or highly rated hire walking into a team with a losing record and room to climb, holds in both cases. And the group did not drift downward on Harbaugh: four of the seven seats raised him in the revision round and none cut him, so this seat held a number the rest of the panel was moving toward.]
What Would Change The Panel's Mind
Four things, all checkable, with the direction each pushes the board.
- Mahomes clears the Questionable designation and opens Week 1. ESPN dates that designation to August 7. If he starts the September 9 opener without restriction, the Reid case strengthens and the panel's 7.0% looks conservative. If he opens on injured reserve, Reid should fall toward the market's 1.5 cents.
- The Giants name their Week 1 quarterback. The roster lists Jaxson Dart, Jameis Winston and Brandon Allen. Harbaugh's number rests on a 13-win improvement ceiling that a settled, functioning quarterback makes plausible and an unsettled one does not.
- Any team changes head coach in-season. That is the path to the OTHER_UNLISTED outcome the panel prices at 2.0%, and it is the one result that pays no Yes holder anywhere on this board. Any mid-season head-coaching change, whether a firing, a resignation or a health-related departure, raises it.
- Michael Penix Jr.'s knee. ESPN lists him Questionable with an ACL injury dated July 31, with Tua Tagovailoa and Cooper Rush also on Atlanta's roster. Kevin Stefanski is a first-year hire at 8-9 with a 5.2% blend, and which quarterback he opens with moves that number in both directions.
Dark Horses The Panel Won't Dismiss
Dan Quinn, Washington Commanders (1.5 cents, 5.4% blend). The second-largest gap in the panel's favor, and the quietest. Washington went 5-12, which puts it squarely in the 4-to-8-win band the ledger favors, and Jayden Daniels is on the roster. Quinn's problem is attribution: he is not a first-year hire. Every seat still priced him at 5.0% or better, and Claude Sonnet topped the panel at 6.8% after trimming him down from 9.0.
Mike LaFleur, Arizona Cardinals (1.5 cents, 3.1% blend). A first-time head coach inheriting a 3-14 team. The panel is more skeptical of the deep-rebuild tier after Opus's correction, but every seat still priced him above the market, in a range from 2.0% to 4.0% against a de-vigged 1.2%.
Mike McCarthy, Pittsburgh Steelers (3.5 cents, 3.7% blend). A first-year hire the panel prices roughly in line with the market, as it does Todd Monken and Jeff Hafley. He inherits a 10-7 team with Aaron Rodgers on the roster, which caps the improvement story at seven games and is why he does not rate higher despite the résumé.
Jeff Hafley, Miami Dolphins (2.5 cents, 2.7% blend). A first-time head coach at 7-10 whose quarterback room is Quinn Ewers, Cam Miller and Malik Willis. The panel could not separate him from the market, which is its own kind of finding.
Settlement Timeline
| What | When |
|---|---|
| Preseason | August 6 to September 9, 2026 |
| Regular season | September 9, 2026 to January 13, 2027 |
| Award announced | NFL Honors, Super Bowl week, February 2027 |
| Contract expected expiration | March 30, 2027 |
This page is re-scored when the story moves. Prices as of August 9, 2026.
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The Bottom Line
The market and the panel agree on the shape of the top of this board. Two first-year hires, John Harbaugh and Jesse Minter, are the most likely winners, and the models put them within a point of the de-vigged price. The disagreement is underneath.
Kalshi is paying for the coaches with the best stories and the biggest names attached to bad teams. The panel, working from a 36-year ledger in which not one winner failed to improve on the previous season and 25 of 36 started from a 4-to-8-win base, is paying for the coaches with the most realistic path to a large jump. Those two lists overlap at the top and diverge sharply by the middle.
The single clearest expression of that gap is Andy Reid at 1.5 cents. A 6-11 team that outscored its opponents, a quarterback working back from a knee injury, and eleven games of room, priced by the same exchange as a top-three AFC contender. The panel thinks that is worth about six times the 1.2% the price implies once the board's overround is divided out, and a little under five times the 1.5 cents it actually costs. The season starts September 9, and the answer arrives in February.
