The National League Manager of the Year race does not reward the best record. It rewards the best story, the skipper whose club most outran what anyone expected of it. That idea held this board together for six weeks, and on Tuesday night it stopped holding. Milwaukee clinched the NL Central on September 15, Jacob Misiorowski throwing five scoreless innings in a 5-1 win at Pittsburgh, and the title only went final later that evening, when Walt Weiss's Braves finished off the Cubs in Chicago. Pat Murphy's contract, the one chasing a third straight award no manager has ever won, opened that day at 60¢ and closed at 71. Weiss, whose team did Milwaukee the favor, trades at 28¢. Between them they now hold 98 and a half cents of a seventeen-contract board. The panel's price-blind verdicts from August 4 are frozen below, and they still read Murphy 15.7% — the widest gap between the money and the models this page has ever carried. Whether we leave that number alone is the question this update has to answer, and it gets answered near the bottom.
The Quick Answer
Kalshi's 2026 NL Manager of the Year board has collapsed into two contracts. Pat Murphy trades at 70.5¢ (70 bid / 71 ask) after Milwaukee clinched the NL Central on September 15 and ran its record to 94-57, the best in baseball; the contract opened that day at 60¢ and never traded lower. Walt Weiss, the panel's frozen favorite, sits at 28¢ with Atlanta 89-63 and up five and a half in the NL East. Don Mattingly, a 14¢ contract two weeks ago, is down to 3.5¢ after Philadelphia went 5-8 in September. Every other manager on the board is a penny or less. The models, scored blind on August 4 and untouched since, still say Weiss 25.0% and Murphy 15.7%, and that 55-point split on the favorite is the sharpest test this series has produced. — The Model Verdict panel
- Market Favorite: Pat Murphy, 70.5¢ (70 bid / 71 ask, as of September 15, 2026)
- Panel Favorite: Walt Weiss, 25.0% blend (scored August 4, 2026, frozen)
- Biggest Move Since Our August 31 Read: Murphy, 32¢ to 70.5¢ (+38.5)
- Biggest Collapse: Don Mattingly, 14¢ to 3.5¢ (-10.5)
- Widest Live Gap: Murphy, a 70.5¢ price against a 15.7% blend
- What Changed On The Field: Milwaukee clinched the NL Central on September 15 and is 94-57, the best record in MLB
The full seventeen-name board, the hour-by-hour tape from clinch night, the one panel number we would take back, and the open-interest fact that complicates the whole story are all below.
The Market At A Glance
| Market | 2026 NL Manager of the Year: which manager wins the BBWAA award |
| Venue | Kalshi |
| Ticker | KXMLBNLMOTY-26 (17 separate yes/no contracts, one per outcome) |
| Settles | The Murphy contract's rule reads: "If Pat Murphy wins the Pro Baseball National League Manager of the Year in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes" |
| How It Is Decided | BBWAA writers vote on a 5-3-1 ballot before the playoffs; announced in November |
| Market Favorite | Pat Murphy, 70.5¢ |
| Panel Favorite | Walt Weiss, 25.0% blend |
| Prices As Of | Kalshi order book and per-trade tape, September 15, 2026 |
| Verdicts Generated | August 4, 2026, price-blind (frozen; not re-scored for this update) |
These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Kalshi event contracts trade on a CFTC-regulated exchange; you must be 18+ and in an eligible state to participate. Prices on this page are read from Kalshi's book and refresh as the season develops; the "as of" date above carries the timestamp. The panel's numbers stay frozen at their generation date so they can be graded honestly against what the market did next.
What Actually Separates The Contenders
Every model on the panel worked from the same fetched picture of the season, so it is worth laying out the facts that drive the board before the numbers. Records below are from the MLB standings as of September 15, 2026, games through that night.
- Manager Of The Year Is A Story Award, Not A Standings Award. Voters reward the manager whose team most exceeded expectations: surprise contenders, first-year skippers who lift a club, dramatic turnarounds. A stacked roster winning as expected gets less credit than the win column implies. That single idea reordered this board all summer. September is testing it to destruction.
- Pat Murphy Clinched, And He Clinched Biggest. Milwaukee is 94-57, the best record in Major League Baseball, ahead of the Dodgers (92-59) and the Rays (91-59). The September 15 win in Pittsburgh locked up the franchise's fourth straight NL Central title; Murphy has managed three of those four. He also won this award in both 2024 and 2025, and no manager has ever won it three years in a row. With 11 games left he is three wins from matching the 97 his 2025 club won, which is the most in Brewers history, and at his current rate he passes it.
- Walt Weiss Still Owns The Purest First-Year Story, And It Got Better. He is in his first year in Atlanta, promoted from bench coach to replace Brian Snitker, and the Braves are 89-63 with a five-and-a-half-game NL East lead and a magic number of five. They went 76-86 and missed the playoffs in 2025. That is a 13-win improvement with 10 games still to play, matched in the National League only by Warren Schaeffer's Rockies, who went from 43 wins to 56 and are not on anyone's ballot. His price went up six cents in two weeks anyway, which on a board where the favorite moved 38 is the same thing as standing still.
- Don Mattingly's Case Stalled Out. He took over the Phillies at 9-19 after Rob Thomson was fired and has them at 83-68, which is 74-49 under him. But Philadelphia went 5-8 in September, lost two of three at Atlanta on September 11-13, and now sits five and a half back in the East holding the second wild card. The contract that closed at 26¢ on August 25 trades at three and a half cents.
- The Wild-Card Pack Got Better And Got Cheaper Anyway. Craig Stammen's first-year Padres are 82-69 and hold the third wild card after winning eight of ten; Torey Lovullo's Diamondbacks are 80-71, two games out of the last spot. Both contracts fell to a penny. Craig Counsell's Cubs are 84-68 and still hold the top wild card, but they are 10.5 games behind Milwaukee — and it was Chicago's September 15 home loss to Atlanta that made Murphy's division official.
- The Collapsed Stories Never Came Back. Miami is 74-77 and eight out of the last wild card; Pittsburgh is 75-76 and seven out. Clayton McCullough and Don Kelly, both 16¢ contracts when the panel scored in August, are a penny or less. Rob Thomson, fired in April, remains a leftover contract nobody prices.
Put those together and the market has made a philosophical choice and then doubled down on it. All summer it paid for the first-year reversal, which is what this award historically rewards. Now it is paying for the best record in baseball plus a shot at history, which is what this award has never rewarded three times running. The frozen panel is on the other side of that trade.
The Board
The narrow view first, built to read on a phone. "Kalshi" is the September 15 mid-price in cents, rounded to the nearest cent with half-cents rounded up, except that a 0/1 book (a 0.5¢ mid) is shown as <1¢ and its move is taken from 0.5; "Aug 31" is the price this page carried at its last read; "Δ" is the move between the two; and "AI blend" is the frozen three-model average from the August 4 revision round. The blend and the price sit on slightly different scales, which we unpack in the how-to-read section below.
| Manager (Team) | Context (Sep 15) | Kalshi | Aug 31 | Δ | AI blend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Murphy | Brewers, 94-57, clinched the NL Central | 70.5¢ | 32¢ | +38.5 | 15.7% |
| Walt Weiss | Braves, 1st yr, 89-63, 1st NL East (+5.5) | 28¢ | 22¢ | +6 | 25.0% |
| Don Mattingly | Phillies interim, 83-68, holds the 2nd WC | 3.5¢ | 14¢ | -10.5 | 12.3% |
| Dave Roberts | Dodgers, 92-59, 1st NL West | 1¢ | 1¢ | 0 | 5.2% |
| Torey Lovullo | D-backs, 80-71, 2 out of the last WC | 1¢ | 6¢ | -5 | 3.8% |
| Craig Stammen | Padres, 1st yr, 82-69, holds the 3rd WC | 1¢ | 5¢ | -4 | 3.0% |
| Clayton McCullough | Marlins, 74-77, 8 out of the last WC | 1¢ | 2¢ | -1 | 13.0% |
| Craig Counsell | Cubs, 84-68, 10.5 back of Milwaukee | <1¢ | 7¢ | -6.5 | 7.8% |
| Don Kelly | Pirates, 75-76, 7 out of the last WC | <1¢ | 2¢ | -1.5 | 4.3% |
| Oliver Marmol | Cardinals, 75-77 | <1¢ | 1¢ | -0.5 | 1.2% |
| Blake Butera | Nationals, 1st yr, 71-81 | <1¢ | <1¢ | 0 | 1.8% |
| Terry Francona | Reds, 70-81 | <1¢ | <1¢ | 0 | 1.2% |
| Carlos Mendoza | Mets, 69-82 | <1¢ | <1¢ | 0 | 0.7% |
| Tony Vitello | Giants, 1st yr, 63-89 | <1¢ | <1¢ | 0 | 0.7% |
| Warren Schaeffer | Rockies, 56-95 | <1¢ | <1¢ | 0 | 0.6% |
| Rob Thomson | Phillies, fired at 9-19 | <1¢ | <1¢ | 0 | 0.2% |
| Tie / Co-Winners | Rare split ballot | <1¢ | <1¢ | 0 | 1.2% |
More live boards from the same panel: NL MVP odds · Pete Crow-Armstrong 98¢ · NL Cy Young odds · Jacob Misiorowski 96.5¢ (Kalshi mid-prices, September 15, 2026) · NL Rookie of the Year odds.
The row worth sitting with is not the top one. It is Clayton McCullough, seventh from the top, carrying a 13.0% panel blend against a one-cent book — the single worst-aged number the panel has put on this page, and one we are leaving exactly where it was scored. The row underneath the story, though, is Dave Roberts: 92-59, the second-best record in the National League, priced at a penny. Nothing separates those two contracts in the market, and everything separates them on the field. That is what a story award does to a price board.
What Moved Since The August 31 Read
Two weeks ago this page called the top of the board a standoff: Kalshi's new favorite at 32¢ against a frozen panel whose top number, 25.0%, belonged to a different manager. The tape since then has not been a standoff at all. What the per-trade record shows, bucketed by Eastern day, is a one-way move.
- Murphy, 32¢ To 70.5¢, In Three Steps. Step one was the Cubs. Milwaukee swept Chicago at home on September 7-9 (4-3, 4-3, 8-6), and September 9 became the second-busiest session on this contract's visible tape: 3,348 contracts, behind only August 28's 3,457, with a 47¢ low, a 70¢ high print that did not hold, and a 59¢ close. Step two was September 11, a 20-0 win over Cincinnati on the night Milwaukee clinched a playoff berth; 2,399 contracts traded, the day opened at 53, and the last sweep of the night filled between 54 and 56. For a session that size it barely moved the price, which is worth noting before anyone calls this a straight line. Step three was clinch day. The contract opened September 15 at 60¢, and 407 contracts — every one of them taker-buys — printed between 9 and 11 a.m. Eastern, lifting it to 64 before anyone threw a pitch. It then barely traded between 11 a.m. and 8 p.m., holding 64-66 on 36 contracts. From 8 p.m. on, as the Pittsburgh win and then the Chicago result came in, another 254 contracts took it 65 to 70 to 71. First pitch in Pittsburgh was 6:40 p.m. Eastern; 532 of Tuesday's 786 contracts, just over two thirds, had already traded by mid-afternoon, and the last print before anyone threw a pitch was 66¢. That is the honest version of this story. The market priced the clinch in the morning, and the confirmation itself — 66 to 71 — was worth five cents.
- Weiss, 22¢ To 28¢, With The Worst Timing On The Board. His contract is the one that refuses to track his team. It closed at 37¢ on September 2, its September high, then slid through a stretch in which Atlanta won three of five against Philadelphia, reaching 22¢ on September 11 on 1,000 contracts. September 12 was its heaviest day of the month — 2,809 contracts opening at 21¢, and the night's last sweep filled all the way up to 33¢, the whole 12-cent range inside one session. Then clinch night: at 9 p.m. Eastern, 135 contracts printed, every single one a taker-sell, knocking it from 29 to 27. Atlanta was in the middle of winning that game 6-3. The sellers did not care.
- Mattingly, 14¢ To 3.5¢, Ending With A Whimper. September 1 was the peak of the fever: the contract printed as high as 49¢ and closed at 26. From there it gave back a cent or two a session as Philadelphia lost ground. On September 14 it traded 1,982 contracts without moving off four cents at all. The next day a single 20-lot taker-sell at 3¢ took the last cent, and the book is 3/4 now.
- The Tail Went To Zero Bid. Counsell's contract has traded 64,717 lots lifetime, the second-most on this board, and it cannot hold a bid at a penny. Lovullo's Diamondbacks lost the wild-card spot they held at our last read and his price fell five cents; Stammen's Padres won eight of ten and took the spot, and his fell four. There is no story in any individual one of those; the story is collective. When a favorite takes 70 cents, a seventeen-name board does not redistribute — it evaporates.
Callback to the August 4 read: the panel's sharpest call, fading Don Kelly from a 16¢ market price to a 4.3% blend, has fully cashed, and it is the reason the models still deserve a hearing here. Its most expensive-looking call, McCullough at 13.0%, is now indefensible. Those were opposite bets. The panel faded Kelly hard, 16¢ down to 4.3%, and cashed. It essentially agreed with the market on McCullough, 16¢ against 13.0%, and Miami collapsed anyway — right call, wrong number. The question is which of those two the panel made on Pat Murphy.
Every Seat's Number
The full per-model board, frozen at August 4. Two seats we usually run, a ChatGPT seat and a Gemini seat, plus three open-source seats, were offline for this scoring, so this board reflects the three Claude-family models that completed both rounds. Where they land close together, it is the product of the revision round, not three models that happened to agree on the first try.
| Manager | Fable | Opus | Sonnet | Blend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walt Weiss | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Pat Murphy | 15.0 | 15.0 | 17.0 | 15.7 |
| Clayton McCullough | 11.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 13.0 |
| Don Mattingly | 14.0 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 12.3 |
| Craig Counsell | 8.0 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| Dave Roberts | 6.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 5.2 |
| Don Kelly | 5.0 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| Torey Lovullo | 4.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.8 |
| Craig Stammen | 3.5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Blake Butera | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Oliver Marmol | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Terry Francona | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Tie / Co-Winners | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Carlos Mendoza | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Tony Vitello | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Warren Schaeffer | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Rob Thomson | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Each model first priced the board alone, then read the other two boards with the names stripped out and could revise. The convergence on Weiss above is the output of that round. The number in that table that matters most is not in the top two rows: the panel put 57 of its 98 points on the 15 contracts that are neither Murphy nor Weiss. The market prices that entire group at about 12 and a half cents combined. The panel did not simply pick the wrong favorite. It spread its conviction across a field the market has since erased.
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Walt Weiss: The Panel's Favorite Is Now A 28-Cent Contract
The rare thing about this board in August was that the market and the models wanted the same manager for the same reason. That agreement is gone, but the panel's case is unchanged, and Sonnet put it in one line:
Weiss leads clearly: first-year manager, Braves flipped from 2025 disappointment to East leaders, the purest exceeded-expectations story with no competing flaw. — Sonnet
Opus reached the same top seat from the standings side, and named the specific thing that props Weiss up over the higher win totals:
This board leads with Walt Weiss because he uniquely stacks the two things voters reward: a first-year manager AND a big reversal, with Atlanta atop the East at 67-45 after a flat 2025. — Opus
The risk every seat flagged on August 4 was that the story lives on the standings, and that a fade would soften the case fast. Atlanta has not faded. The Braves are 89-63, up 13 wins on last year's 76-86 with 10 games still to play, holding a five-and-a-half-game lead with a magic number of five. Every condition the panel attached to Weiss has held. His price is 28¢.
Here is the part worth noticing, because it is the strongest thing the panel has going for it: the models scored Weiss at 25.0% on August 4, blind to any price. The market, six weeks and a division race later, has him at 28. On the manager whose case was hardest to price, the panel landed within three points of where the money sits six weeks later. It was not Weiss they got wrong.
Where The Market And The Panel Split Hardest
On August 4 the loudest argument was Don Kelly, a 16¢ market price against a 4.3% blend. The market conceded it completely: Pittsburgh is 75-76 and the contract has no bid. The new argument is nearly five times as large and runs the other way.
Kalshi says Pat Murphy, 70.5¢. The frozen panel says 15.7%. Its reasoning was never that Milwaukee would fade — it was that this electorate discounts sustained excellence, and that a manager whose stacked club wins as expected gets less ballot credit than the win column implies. Applied to a first-year Atlanta manager with a 13-win improvement, that logic was sound. Applied to Murphy, it required voter fatigue to be close to a certainty, and priced it that way.
One fact cuts hard for the models' side and belongs here rather than buried:
Milwaukee won 97 games in 2025, the most in franchise history. It is 94-57 in 2026 and on pace to edge past that. Murphy is not transforming this club — he is sustaining it at exactly the level voters have already rewarded him for twice. "Exceeded expectations" is the entire basis of this award, and matching your own prior season is the weakest possible version of that claim.
That is the strongest argument on the board for a 28¢ contract over a 70¢ one, and it is the argument the panel made in August before anybody knew how September would go.
What the market is now saying, then, is narrower than "the panel was wrong about the electorate." It is saying that a 94-win season, the best record in baseball, and a fourth straight division title are enough to make the writers do something they have never done. For Murphy to cash at 70.5¢, that has to happen over a first-year manager whose team improved as much as any in the league. For Weiss to cash at 28¢, the historical pattern the panel leaned on has to hold one more time. Those are the two live bets, and everything else on the board is noise.
For a sense of whether a price like Murphy's tends to be right, our own graded ledger is the honest place to look rather than a hunch: across 370 settled contracts the panel has scored whose quoted market price averaged between 65 and 78 cents, 285 settled Yes, or 77% — a band chosen to bracket Murphy's 70.5. That is roughly in line with what those prices implied, and it comes with a real caveat — most of that sample is short-dated markets resolving on facts already in evidence, not a November ballot cast by the BBWAA electorate. A clinched division is a fact. A ballot is not.
And the last split is the one the panel cannot spin. McCullough at 13.0% against a one-cent book, with Miami 74-77 and eight games out, is simply a bad number. If the panel re-scored today it would come down hard. We leave it because that is how the panel gets graded — which brings us to the promise made at the top of this page.
We are leaving the August 4 verdicts exactly as they are, including the 15.7% on Murphy. Not because we think 15.7% is right today; the tape says it plainly is not. We leave it because a frozen verdict that gets edited after the market moves is not a verdict, it is a scoreboard nobody can read. The panel will be re-scored on its own cadence, price-blind, and that run will be dated and shown next to this one. Every number here gets graded in November either way.
What Happened To The Dark Horses
Below the top tier, the panel flagged several names in August that it would not wave off. Add up what it gave them — Counsell 7.8, Roberts 5.2, Lovullo 3.8, Stammen 3.0, Butera 1.8 — and that is 21.6 points of probability. The market now pays the same five contracts about four cents, combined. That 17-point spread is not a disagreement about any one manager; it is a disagreement about whether a board like this should have a long tail at all. Here is what happened to each of them.
- Craig Stammen (3.0% Blend Vs A 1¢ Mid). The first-year Padres manager has San Diego at 82-69 and holding the third wild card after an 8-2 stretch. As Fable framed it on August 4, "a rookie manager stealing a wild card in San Diego after an offseason of turmoil would flip mild overachievement into a real ballot presence." He is doing the thing in the sentence, and his contract has a zero bid. This is the clearest evidence that the market is no longer pricing stories at all.
- Torey Lovullo (3.8% Blend Vs A 1¢ Mid). Arizona is 80-71 and two games out of the last wild card, and here the market's penny looks better than the panel's 3.8%. The Diamondbacks won 80 games last year too. A team arriving at the same win total it posted a season ago is not an exceeded-expectations story no matter where it finishes, and with 11 games left Lovullo needs help to even get the berth.
- Craig Counsell (7.8% Blend Vs A Sub-1¢ Mid). Sonnet's August 4 condition was that "If the Cubs overtake the Brewers for the Central down the stretch, Counsell's case jumps sharply," and the condition did not just expire, it inverted: Chicago sits 10.5 back with the division gone, and its September 15 loss is what handed that division to the man who used to have his job. Counsell managed Milwaukee to the 2023 NL Central title before leaving for Chicago. Murphy has now won three straight in the chair.
- Blake Butera (1.8% Blend Vs A Sub-1¢ Price). Washington is 71-81. The first-year story the panel would not dismiss in August has nothing left holding it up. What it does still have, like every dead contract on this board, is open interest: 8,674 lots that nobody has bothered to close, on a book where nobody will bid. That is the tail's real signature — the positions outlive the prices.
How To Read These Prices
A few things worth knowing before you look at any board like this one, and one of them undercuts everything above.
- The Book Now Sums To More Than A Dollar. Add the 17 mids on September 15 and you get about 111 cents; at our August 31 read the same 17 summed to under 100. Murphy and Weiss alone account for 98 and a half of it, and the other 15 contribute roughly 12 and a half cents of mid that you could not actually sell, because there is no bid underneath most of them. A mid on a 0/1 book is an optical price, not a tradeable one. Compare shapes across a board like this, never exact cents, and remember the blend column is not normalized either — it sums to about 98.
- Open Interest Is A History, Not A Vote. Murphy's contract has traded 39,122 lots lifetime with 26,541 still open. Weiss's has traded 126,302 with 101,057 open, on a contract that closed at 44¢ as recently as August 18. It is tempting to read that as the positioned money backing Weiss, and it is not: every open contract is somebody long and somebody short, so the number cannot tell you which side it favors. The proof is one row down. Craig Counsell carries 56,654 in open interest on a contract nobody will bid a penny for, more than twice Murphy's. What open interest actually measures here is how much has traded, and the useful tell is the divergence — the tail's positions never closed when the tail's price went to zero.
- A Wide Book Is Not A Wrong Book. Murphy's 70/71, Weiss's 27/29 and Mattingly's 3/4 are the only quotes on this board with a real bid underneath them. The other 14 contracts are one- or two-cent spreads on a zero bid, which means those 14 prices are better read as the market declining to have an opinion than as the market having a low one.
An award vote is not a standings query, and that is the only reason this board is still interesting after a clinch. Milwaukee has the best record in baseball and a division title in hand; Atlanta has a 13-win improvement, tied for the biggest in the National League, and a manager in his first year producing it. The BBWAA electorate will decide which of those two facts is the better story, and it has never once decided it the way the market is currently betting it will.
So here is the number we would leave you with, and it is not 70.5. It is three. Three points is the distance between the panel's August 4 read on Walt Weiss and where his contract trades six weeks later, and it is the reason we are not writing off the models' 15.7% on Murphy as a blown call. They read the manager correctly. What they priced as near-certain was the electorate — that writers who have never handed out a third straight award would not start now. Milwaukee's clinch did not test that idea. November will.
Every number here gets graded in public when the award is announced — the running record is on the full graded scoreboard. Related boards: NL MVP · NL Cy Young, where Misiorowski, the pitcher who threw the clinch game, is a 96.5¢ favorite · NL Rookie of the Year · World Series champion · how to bet MLB on Kalshi. Shopping the same games at a sportsbook instead? The live odds screen puts every major book's number side by side.
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