NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds after Week 2: The NFL's sack leader costs three cents. Greg Rousseau has 4.0 sacks and three forced fumbles through two games for the 2-0 Bills: two strip-sacks of C.J. Stroud in Week 1, the second of them ending a 36-31 win in Houston with 16 seconds left, then two sacks of Jared Goff in Week 2. His contract sits at 1 bid, 3 ask, ninth on the board. The five-model panel that re-priced this board blind this morning has him at 12%, level with Aidan Hutchinson at 18 cents and T.J. Watt at 12. The same panel puts Will Anderson Jr., the second most expensive contract at 13 bid, 14 ask, at 4%, on 1.5 sacks for an 0-2 team. Nine points one way, ten the other, on rows three lines apart. Myles Garrett, who went from 26 cents to a penny across the last edition of this page, is 0 bid, 1 ask now, and the panel did not price him at all. He is in the field, which the panel set at 33.5%, the largest number on the page.
Prices as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026, 9:38 a.m. ET, Kalshi bids and asks before fees. The panel ran the same morning without seeing a price, and its numbers carry that date wherever they appear. The August 23 panel this page used through September 14 is history now and is graded below.
| Kalshi | Panel | What it says | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Hutchinson | 17¢ / 18¢ | 12% | 3.0 sacks, a forced fumble, a Lions-record six straight games with a sack; the most expensive contract and the panel's co-favorite |
| Will Anderson Jr. | 13¢ / 14¢ | 4% | 1.5 sacks for an 0-2 Houston; the board's second price and the panel's widest overprice |
| T.J. Watt | 10¢ / 12¢ | 12% | 3.5 sacks and the pick-six; the one top contract the panel and the price agree on |
| Greg Rousseau | 1¢ / 3¢ | 12% | the league sack leader, 4.0 with three forced fumbles, on a one-cent bid |
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The Board
Fourteen named contracts got a number from the panel this morning; the 51 other rows on the 65-contract board were priced as one field. The panel column is the median of five models after a revision round in which each one read the other four's reasoning without knowing which model wrote what. Gap is the panel's number minus the ask, in points; positive means the panel sits above the price.
| Outcome | Position, Team | Sep 14 Bid / Ask | Sep 23 Bid / Ask | Panel (Sep 23) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Hutchinson | DE, Detroit Lions | 20¢ / 22¢ | 17¢ / 18¢ | 12% | −6 |
| Will Anderson Jr. | DE, Houston Texans | 21¢ / 25¢ | 13¢ / 14¢ | 4% | −10 |
| T.J. Watt | LB, Pittsburgh Steelers | 15¢ / 18¢ | 10¢ / 12¢ | 12% | 0 |
| Dallas Turner | Edge, Minnesota Vikings | no contract | 6¢ / 7¢ | 7% | 0 |
| Fred Warner | LB, San Francisco 49ers | 6¢ / 7¢ | 3¢ / 6¢ | 4% | −2 |
| Maxx Crosby | DE, Las Vegas Raiders | 2¢ / 7¢ | 3¢ / 4¢ | 3% | −1 |
| Nik Bonitto | LB, Denver Broncos | 6¢ / 9¢ | 2¢ / 3¢ | 1.5% | −1.5 |
| Dexter Lawrence II | DT, Cincinnati Bengals | 0¢ / 1¢ | 2¢ / 3¢ | 3% | 0 |
| Greg Rousseau | LB, Buffalo Bills | 0¢ / 1¢ | 1¢ / 3¢ | 12% | +9 |
| Nick Emmanwori | S, Seattle Seahawks | 1¢ / 2¢ | 1¢ / 2¢ | 0.5% | −1.5 |
| Trey Hendrickson | LB, Baltimore Ravens | 0¢ / 4¢ | 1¢ / 2¢ | 2% | 0 |
| Devin Lloyd | LB, Carolina Panthers | 0¢ / 1¢ | 0¢ / 2¢ | 3% | +1 |
| Laiatu Latu | Edge, Indianapolis Colts | no contract | 0¢ / 2¢ | 1% | −1 |
| Cooper DeJean | DB, Philadelphia Eagles | no contract | 0¢ / 2¢ | 1% | −1 |
| Everyone else, 51 contracts | the field | 5¢ bid, 60¢ asked in total | 33.5% |
More live boards from the same panel: NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year · David Bailey 23¢ · NFL MVP · Josh Allen 28¢ · NFL Offensive Player of the Year. Those asks were fetched September 23, 2026, 9:38 a.m. ET.
Sixteen of the 65 contracts carry a bid, the asks sum to 140 cents against 162 on September 14, and 44 of those 140 belong to the top three rows. Below Turner the width is most of the price, so size anything under 7 cents to the bid you could get out at, not the ask you paid.
Rousseau For Pennies
Every seat on the panel had Rousseau in its top three, and every seat discounted him on the way there. Kimi opened him as the favorite at 16 and trimmed to 14 after reading the room: "a Week-2 sack lead is worth roughly a coin-flip's less than the pace implies over 15 games." Claude Opus went the other direction, from 7 to 11, on the plays rather than the pace: "Forced fumbles and strip-sacks are the splash plays voters remember." Gemini cut him from 15 to 12, ChatGPT nudged him from 12 to 13. After all of that, 12, tied for the top of the board.
The market's case for three cents is the one the panel already charged him for: no elite season behind him, and a sack lead after two weeks is noise. The panel priced that regression and still landed nine points above the ask, because the alternative is paying 12 cents for the same résumé when it belongs to Watt. Watt has 3.5 sacks, half a sack fewer, plus the pick-six and 118.5 career sacks, and costs four times as much. Hutchinson has 3.0 and costs six times as much. The two met on Sunday: Rousseau had two sacks and four hits on Goff in Buffalo's 41-31 win, Hutchinson had one and a forced fumble of Josh Allen. The price gap is a 2025 finalist's ballot against a first-time leader's, and the panel's read is that voters in February care more about the sack column than the market does in September. At 3 cents, $100 returns $3,333 before fees if he wins. Sunday at 1 p.m. he gets the 0-2 Chargers in Buffalo.
Anderson, Halfway Back
The last edition called Anderson the row that did not add up: bought to 25 cents on the Sunday morning of the Garrett report, before he had played a snap, with Week 2 to answer whether the buyers were pricing the player or the vacancy. Week 2 answered. Eight tackles and a sack of Joe Burrow in a 20-6 loss to Cincinnati, Houston 0-2, a season line of 1.5 sacks, and a contract that has come halfway back, from 25 to 14, toward the 15 to 16 it sat at on September 1.
The panel would take it the rest of the way. Opus cut him from 7 to 5 between rounds: "Houston is 0-2, and no peer or data point gave him a production case." Kimi has him at 2, the median is 4, and no seat is above 5. What holds 14 cents up is last season, 11.5 sacks and a first Pro Bowl on the league's top-ranked defense, and none of it is on the 2026 stat sheet. Ten points is the widest gap on the board in the market's favor, on a contract that has spent nine days falling. He plays the 0-2 Colts in Indianapolis on Sunday at 1 p.m.
Garrett, Donald, Parsons: The Field At A Third
Garrett went on injured reserve on September 13, and CBS Sports wrote on September 16 that he is out for an extended time. The last edition had him at 1 bid, 2 ask; he is 0 bid, 1 ask today, and the panel did not give him a row. The defending winner, 23 sacks and all 50 first-place votes last February, is a field contract. So is Micah Parsons, on the physically-unable-to-perform list for at least the first four games, Week 6 the earliest date anyone has put on him. So, for the first time, is Aaron Donald: his contract is one of 11 rows added since September 14, and it is 0 bid, 1 ask.
That is why the field is the biggest number the panel produced. Five seats put it between 29.5 and 36.1, the median 33.5, against 14.2 from the August panel. Gemini opened at 8 and finished at 34: "being only two weeks into a season without Garrett and Parsons leaves immense equity in unlisted stars." The market's version of the field is 51 contracts with five cents of bids and 60 cents of asks between them. The panel is saying one of those names, or one nobody listed, wins this one time in three. The board is saying you can buy most of them for a penny.
Every Seat's Number
Every named contract plus the field, seat by seat, using each seat's revision-round figures. Claude Fable priced round one (Rousseau 8, the field 42.5) but its revision-round board did not parse, so five seats count. This table is pinned: it is what the panel said on the morning of September 23, and it gets graded as written.
| Outcome | Sep 23 Bid / Ask | Opus | Sonnet | GPT | Gemini | Kimi | Panel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Name Not Listed | not a listed contract | 33.5 | 36.1 | 29.5 | 34.0 | 33.5 | 33.5% |
| Aidan Hutchinson | 17¢ / 18¢ | 15.0 | 10.9 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12% |
| T.J. Watt | 10¢ / 12¢ | 10.0 | 11.9 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 13.0 | 12% |
| Greg Rousseau | 1¢ / 3¢ | 11.0 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 14.0 | 12% |
| Dallas Turner | 6¢ / 7¢ | 7.0 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 7% |
| Will Anderson Jr. | 13¢ / 14¢ | 5.0 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 4% |
| Fred Warner | 3¢ / 6¢ | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4% |
| Maxx Crosby | 3¢ / 4¢ | 4.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3% |
| Dexter Lawrence II | 2¢ / 3¢ | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 3% |
| Devin Lloyd | 0¢ / 2¢ | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3% |
| Trey Hendrickson | 1¢ / 2¢ | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2% |
| Nik Bonitto | 2¢ / 3¢ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.5% |
| Laiatu Latu | 0¢ / 2¢ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1% |
| Cooper DeJean | 0¢ / 2¢ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1% |
| Nick Emmanwori | 1¢ / 2¢ | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.5% |
The panel: Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, ChatGPT, Gemini and Kimi, each pricing the 14 named contracts plus the field in a single pass from a shared fact sheet, without being shown any price. Each seat's board sums to 100. Every seat is graded against real market settlements; the full scoreboard is public.
The seat worth re-reading is Gemini, which came into the revision round as the outlier on every row that mattered, Watt at 20, Rousseau at 15, the field at 8, and left at 12, 12 and 34, on its own account "persuaded by peers noting his down 2025 season (7 sacks) and Pittsburgh's 1-1 start." Watt is the contract the panel converged on hardest, 10 to 13 across five seats against a price of 10 bid, 12 ask. The one row nobody moved toward the market was Anderson.
Sept. 14, Graded
The August 23 panel, eight models pricing 53 names before a snap, had Hutchinson first among the named players at 9.6%, Garrett at 8.9%, Anderson at 6.0%, Bonitto at 6.2%, Watt at 2.5% and Rousseau at 0.7%. The September 14 edition said Anderson's 25 cents was the price to distrust and Hutchinson's 22 the price to trust; Anderson is 14 today and Hutchinson 18, so that read held. Watt was the old panel's miss: 2.5% against 18 cents, and the new panel has him at 12 with 3.5 sacks behind it. Bonitto was the market's: 6 bid, 9 ask on the panel's 6.2% the night he played Kansas City, and after two games with no sacks and two tackles he is 2 bid, 3 ask. Rousseau, 0.7% in August and a penny with no bid on September 14, is the row both sides missed, and only one of them has corrected.
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What Moves It Next
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET: Bengals at Steelers. Watt gets Joe Burrow and a 2-0 Cincinnati offense. Dexter Lawrence, 2 bid, 3 ask and 3% to the panel, is on the other sideline with a goal-line stop against Houston and no sacks.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET: Jets at Lions. Hutchinson's sack streak is at six games, a Detroit record, and the most expensive contract on the board is the one with a streak to protect.
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET: Vikings at Buccaneers. Dallas Turner has 3.0 sacks and, per the panel's fact sheet, a league-high 20 pressures for a defense that has allowed 25 points in two games. Andrew Van Ginkel, 2.5 sacks, is a 0-bid, 1-ask field contract on the same defense, and every seat docked Turner for sharing the credit. A game where Turner gets the sacks and Van Ginkel does not is the one that moves 7 cents.
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET: Rams at Broncos. Garrett does not play. Bonitto does, at 2 bid, 3 ask, with no sacks in two games and, per the panel's fact sheet, a 90.8 pass-rush grade from Pro Football Focus. The panel has him at 1.5; the market had him at 9 cents nine days ago.
| Voting Closes | End of the regular season; playoff games do not count |
| Announced | NFL Honors, Super Bowl LXI week; the game is February 14, 2027 at SoFi Stadium |
| Kalshi Expected Expiration | March 10, 2027 |
| Re-Scored | When the story moves. Prices and the panel's numbers each carry their date; the page is rebuilt rather than replaced |
The Bottom Line
Three contracts carry the panel's top number, and they cost 18, 12 and 3 cents. The 18 has the pedigree and the streak, the 12 has the highlight and the 2021 award, and the 3 has more sacks than either. Rousseau at 3 cents is the price on this board I would own, sized to a one-cent bid. Anderson at 14 is the price I would not, and the market has spent nine days agreeing with that a cent at a time.
The sportsbooks price this same award as futures; how their numbers moved on the same two weeks is on the NFL DPOY odds 2026 page. For Week 3's games, the live odds screen is where you shop the number across every major book before you take a price, and the free reads on those games are on the free expert picks page. New to this kind of market? Start with how sports contracts work on Kalshi. When the panel re-runs with Week 3 in front of it, this page re-scores, and every number on it gets graded in public, win or lose. These are market prices and estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
The Field
Nine field contracts carry a 2-cent ask this morning: Pat Surtain, Nick Bosa, Kyle Hamilton, Josh Hines-Allen and Abdul Carter at 1 bid, 2 ask; Jeffery Simmons, Jalen Carter, Danielle Hunter and Christian Gonzalez at 0 bid, 2 ask. The other 42, Garrett, Parsons, Donald, David Bailey and the tie contract among them, are 0 bid, 1 ask: a shop window, not a trade.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Myles Garrett photo by Erik Drost, licensed CC BY 2.0; Aaron Donald photo by All-Pro Reels, licensed CC BY-SA 2.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
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