NFL Defensive Player Of The Year Odds: Garrett To A Penny

NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds after Week 1: At 11:26 a.m. ET on Sunday, September 13, ESPN reported that Myles Garrett would have arthroscopic knee surgery and go on injured reserve. In the hour around that report, Kalshi's 2026 Defensive Player of the Year board turned over. Garrett's contract went from 10 cents to a penny on about 18,800 contracts, and roughly 87,000 contracts of T.J. Watt, Aidan Hutchinson and Will Anderson Jr. changed hands before any 1 p.m. game had kicked off. Four hours later Watt intercepted Cooper Rush and returned it 35 yards for the touchdown that decided Pittsburgh's 20-13 win over Atlanta. His contract went from 7 cents to 23 in three minutes. The eight-model panel that priced this board blind on August 23 had Garrett at 8.9%, Watt at 2.5% and Hutchinson first among the named players at 9.6%. Its numbers do not move. The prices around them did.

Kalshi prices as of September 14, 2026, 6:54 a.m. ET, unless a sentence dates them otherwise. The panel's numbers are its August 23 run and are labeled that way wherever they appear.

The Board

The panel column is the median of eight models after a revision round in which each one read the other seven's reasoning without knowing which model wrote what, every seat pricing all 53 named players blind on August 23. The ten most expensive contracts today, beside the price the panel was scored against and the September 1 quote from this page's last edition:

More live boards from the same panel: NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year · David Bailey 24¢ · NFL Offensive Player of the Year · Jahmyr Gibbs 21¢ · NFL MVP · Josh Allen 16¢. Those asks were fetched September 14, 2026, 6:54 a.m. ET. Bailey, the rookie board's most expensive contract, also carries a contract here at a penny; he had a sack in the Jets' 23-10 win over Tennessee.

Anderson is the row that does not add up on its own. He is the most expensive contract to buy on the board at 21 bid, 25 ask, and he had the quietest Sunday of the three men at the top: three tackles, half a sack and one quarterback hit while Buffalo scored 36 on Houston. His contract printed as high as 28 to 30 cents during that game, with one stray print at 52 in the morning, and gave back about half of the day's gain by nightfall, closing between 22 and 24. The buying that put him there happened in the morning, on the Garrett news, before he had played a snap. Whether the market re-rates him on what he does rather than on who got hurt is the question Week 2 answers first.

The panel and the market now both have Hutchinson ahead of Garrett, and by a distance. First among the named players in the August 23 run at 9.6%, he cost 11 cents that day and costs 22 now. Sunday's line was two sacks, two tackles for loss and four hits on Tyler Shough in Detroit's 31-30 overtime win over New Orleans. Nobody priced Fred Warner for this. He was 3 cents on September 9 and is 7 today, after 11 tackles in Melbourne made him the 49ers' all-time leading tackler, per NBC Sports Bay Area; the panel had him at 0.7%. Read every quote here with the width in mind: 17 of the 54 contracts have a bid behind them today, down from 25 on September 1, the asks sum to 162 cents and the midpoints to 125, so take roughly a fifth off a midpoint before you treat it as a probability, and treat a 0-bid, 1-ask row as a display rather than a price.

Sunday, 11 A.M.

The rotation happened inside one hour, and Kalshi's trade log dates it.

ESPN's Sarah Barshop posted the Garrett report at 11:26 a.m. ET: arthroscopic surgery, injured reserve, at least four games missed, first eligible to return in Week 6 against Arizona. Those four were not the only contracts moving in that hour: Nick Bosa traded about 30,800 contracts at 3 and 4 cents, and Kyle Hamilton about 25,500 from 2 cents to 4. Every one of the six moved the way the news pointed. The injured man was sold from 10 cents to a penny, and five healthy defenders were bought.

The Watt line is the strangest of the four. Thirty-five thousand contracts changed hands in the hour, every one of them a buyer taking the offer, at 4 to 6 cents, before kickoff. For scale, the contract had traded about 12,400 contracts in the 12 days before that hour combined. I cannot tell you who was buying. I can tell you what they got. At 14:05 of the fourth quarter, with Pittsburgh up 13-10, Watt picked off Cooper Rush behind the line of scrimmage and returned it 35 yards; the extra point made it 20-10, and Atlanta never caught up. The trade log has the contract at 7 cents at 3:36 p.m., 9 at 3:38, then 17, 21 and 23 inside the 3:39 minute, and a single 8,101-contract print at 23 cents at 3:47. It traded at 19 and 20 for the rest of the evening, dipped as low as 5 cents on a late-night burst of about 4,900 contracts, was back at 17 by 1 a.m., and sits at 15 bid, 18 ask this morning. In payout terms, before fees, an 18-cent contract turns $100 into about $556 if Watt wins and nothing if he does not. A contract bought at 4 cents that morning turns $100 into $2,500 on the same outcome.

Garrett: 26¢ To A Penny In Five Days

The last edition of this page ended with Garrett at 14 bid, 15 ask on September 1 and asked one question of the season: what his snap count in Melbourne would say. The market answered before the game did. It bought him back to 20 cents by September 2, 21 by September 3 and 26 on September 8, two days before the opener, on the reading that the defending winner would be fine.

Then Thursday, September 10, at the Melbourne Cricket Ground: 49ers 27, Rams 7. Garrett finished with no tackles, no sacks and no quarterback hits, one hurry by Pro Football Focus' count per Yahoo Sports, and he spent multiple series of the second half on the sideline. ESPN noted it was his first game without a tackle since Week 11 of the 2024 season and the fourth of his career. His own review, per Yahoo Sports: "This was the worst version of myself that I've put out there. And I've got to be better." The contract closed Thursday, the game day, at 19, Friday at 12 and Saturday at 9. Sunday morning's report took it to a penny, and about 25,000 contracts traded that day between 11 cents and 1.

The whole slide in one line

the market bought the defending winner up to 26 cents on the strength of a training camp he mostly missed, and sold him to a penny on the knee that explained why.

The award math is the reason a penny is where it stopped. Defensive Player of the Year is accumulated across 17 games, and Garrett's 23 sacks last season, which passed the single-season record of 22.5 that Michael Strahan shared with T.J. Watt, came from all 17. Injured reserve costs him the Giants, Broncos, Eagles and Bills at minimum, per CBS Sports, and a Week 6 return against Arizona leaves him 13 games at most, one of them a zero-tackle opener, to build a case against men who will play every one. On August 23, when it cut him from 15% to 8% between rounds, GLM wrote: "his knee is swollen." The market's 26 cents on September 8 was its answer to that sentence. Its 1 cent on Sunday was the knee's.

Aaron Donald, who un-retired onto this line on August 30, still has no contract on the board: 54 contracts as of this morning, none of them his. With Garrett on injured reserve, Donald becomes the Rams' best-known pass rusher for at least a month, and the only way this market can price that is through the "name not listed" row the panel set at 14.2%, a model estimate rather than a contract anyone can trade.

Watt's Hour

Watt's full line against Atlanta, per ESPN's box score: four tackles, two sacks, three tackles for loss, two quarterback hits, a pass defensed and the 35-yard interception return. It was his 10th career interception and his first returned for a touchdown, per NBC Sports, and Yahoo Sports notes it made him the second player with 100 sacks and 10 interceptions since sacks became an official statistic in 1982, after Julius Peppers. He won this award in 2021. That history is why the market prices two sacks from Watt at 18 cents and two sacks from Greg Rousseau, who also had five quarterback hits against Houston on Sunday, at a penny with no bid.

The panel had Watt at 2.5% on August 23, when he was 1 bid, 4 ask, and no seat went above Gemini's 3.0. At 18 cents the market now sits more than seven times the panel's number. The panel's figure does not move until the next run, and it is context rather than a signal: in our graded record, the market price has beaten the panel on most disagreements this wide. The case against the price is the sample. One game is one game, and among the players on this board the sack column, the award's spine, currently reads two for Watt, two for Hutchinson, two for Rousseau, and one and a half each for Maxx Crosby, Josh Hines-Allen, Travon Walker and Andrew Van Ginkel. The board prices those seven men between a penny and 22 cents on the same week of work, and the difference is reputation and volume, both of which Week 2 can revise.

Every Seat's Number

The top ten named players plus the unlisted-field row, model by model, using each seat's round-two figures from the August 23 run beside the quote it was scored against. This table is pinned: it is what the panel said before a snap was played, and it gets graded as written.

The panel: Claude Fable, Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, ChatGPT, Gemini Pro, Kimi, GLM and DeepSeek, each pricing all 53 named players plus the field in a single pass without being shown any price. Each model's numbers are scaled by a fraction of a point so its own board sums to exactly 100.

Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements. Records to date: Claude Fable 88% on 3,540 graded calls · Claude Opus 88% on 3,629 · Claude Sonnet 86% on 3,605 · GPT 85% on 10,269 · Gemini 86% on 9,496 · Kimi 86% on 4,894 · GLM 84% on 4,494 · DeepSeek 84% on 4,511. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.

The seat worth re-reading after Sunday is Kimi, which finished the revision round at 17.9% on the field, slightly above its own first number, after two other seats argued for cutting it: "this award's history is full of in-season breakouts from off the board, and 18% is the honest mass there." Watt was on the board, so Kimi gets no credit for him. The reasoning, that September rearranges August, is the one line from the run that survived the weekend intact.

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What Moves It Next

Tonight, 8:15 p.m. ET: Nik Bonitto at Kansas City. He is the only top-ten contract that has not played, quoted 6 bid, 9 ask, and the panel's third-likeliest named winner at 6.2% after 14 sacks in 17 games last season. Among the top ten, his is the only price still sitting on the panel's number.

Anderson's next game. His contract was bought to 25 on Sunday morning, ran to 30 during the game and settled at 23 on half a sack; in the same game Buffalo's Rousseau had two sacks and five hits and is a penny. A second quiet week from Anderson tests whether the morning's buyers were pricing the player or the vacancy Garrett left.

Garrett's return. Week 6, at home against Arizona, is the first game he is eligible to play. A 1-bid, 2-ask contract on the defending winner is a bet that 13 games can beat 17 in an award that rewards the full season's accumulation.

A Donald contract. Kalshi has not printed one in the 15 days since he signed. The day it does, the panel's 14.2% field row stops being the only place his season can live.

Micah Parsons off the physically-unable-to-perform list. Quoted 0 bid, 1 ask, after 1 and 2 on September 1. The most optimistic return he named in August was Week 6 against Dallas on October 18, which would leave him 12 games of 17, one fewer than Garrett.

The Bottom Line

Eighty-seven thousand contracts moved into three healthy pass rushers inside the hour of a knee report, before a down had been played, and two of the three then had the afternoon that justified it. Hutchinson's price has a game behind it. Watt's has a game and a highlight. Anderson's has a report about someone else, and his is the one I keep coming back to: if he has another half-sack Sunday and still costs 20, the morning buyers were pricing Garrett's absence rather than the player, and Hutchinson's 22 cents, with two sacks behind it, is the price I trust more. The most expensive contract on the panel's day is a penny, and a contract the panel had at 2.5% is the third most expensive on the board. Hutchinson's price has a game behind it. Watt's has a game and a highlight. Anderson's has a report about someone else.

The sportsbooks price this same award as futures, and the books opened the season with Garrett as their favorite; how their numbers moved on the same knee is on the NFL DPOY odds 2026 page. For Week 2's games, the live odds screen is where you shop the number across every major book before you take a price, and the free reads on those games are on the free expert picks page. New to this kind of market? Start with how sports contracts work on Kalshi. When the panel re-runs with Week 1 in front of it, this page re-scores, and every number on it gets graded in public, win or lose. These are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.

The Full Board

All 53 named contracts plus the tie contract, sorted by the panel's August 23 number, with the quote each seat was scored against and this morning's quote. Thirty-seven of the 54 rows have no bid today; a 0-bid, 1-ask line is a shop window, not a trade.

Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Myles Garrett photo by Erik Drost, licensed CC BY 2.0; Aaron Donald photo by All-Pro Reels, licensed CC BY-SA 2.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.

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