Updated September 23, 2026 · 9 min read · by Jake Hari

Patrick Mahomes trades at 58 cents bid, 62 cents ask to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year, and six models asked this morning with no price in front of them put him at 41. Joe Burrow is 4 bid, 7 ask, and the same six put him at 16. That is the page in two lines. Two weeks in, the market has concentrated on one name, and the panel has not. Both quarterbacks are 2-0, both came back from an injury that ended their 2025, and the distance between them at the ask, 55 cents, is more than twice the 25 points the panel sees.

<<<<<<< Updated upstream Prices as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026, 9:38 a.m. ET, Kalshi asks before fees. The panel is six seats (Claude Fable, Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, ChatGPT, Gemini, Kimi), each handed the same data card with no prices, each revising once after reading the other five anonymized boards; the numbers below are the revised medians. The Sept. 14 edition, built on an August panel, is graded further down. Jayden Daniels, the reason the last title said the board had no Daniels, still has no contract. The board has 18 contracts now, and the newest is Geno Smith.

Prices as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026, 8:38 a.m. ET, Kalshi asks before fees. The panel is six seats (Claude Fable, Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, ChatGPT, Gemini, Kimi), each handed the same data card with no prices, each revising once after reading the other five anonymized boards; the numbers below are the revised medians. The Sept. 14 edition, built on an August panel, is graded further down. Jayden Daniels, the reason the last title said the board had no Daniels, still has no contract. The board has 18 contracts now, and the newest is Geno Smith.

Stashed changes

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These are market prices and estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.

The Board

Player	Team (comeback from)	Kalshi bid / ask	Panel median	Gap (median minus ask)
Patrick Mahomes	Kansas City Chiefs (torn ACL and LCL)	58¢ / 62¢	40.8%	-21.2
Joe Burrow	Cincinnati Bengals (turf toe)	4¢ / 7¢	16.0%	+9.0
Aaron Donald	Los Angeles Rams (unretired)	4¢ / 5¢	3.0%	-2.0
Kyler Murray	Minnesota Vikings (foot)	4¢ / 5¢	5.0%	0.0
Michael Penix Jr.	Atlanta Falcons (torn ACL)	2¢ / 4¢	3.0%	-1.0
Daniel Jones	Indianapolis Colts (torn Achilles)	3¢ / 4¢	4.0%	0.0
Fred Warner	San Francisco 49ers (ankle)	2¢ / 3¢	4.3%	+1.3
Nick Bosa	San Francisco 49ers (torn ACL)	0¢ / 2¢	3.3%	+1.3
Micah Parsons	Green Bay Packers (torn ACL)	0¢ / 2¢	2.3%	+0.3
Travis Hunter	Jacksonville Jaguars (torn LCL)	0¢ / 2¢	1.5%	-0.5
Geno Smith	New York Jets (2025 in Las Vegas)	0¢ / 2¢	1.3%	-0.7
Tucker Kraft	Green Bay Packers (torn ACL)	0¢ / 2¢	1.2%	-0.8
Tank Dell	Houston Texans (knee)	0¢ / 2¢	1.0%	-1.0
Tie/Co-Winners	shared award	0¢ / 2¢	0.5%	-1.5
Field	four thin contracts plus every unlisted name, e.g. Jayden Daniels	none	9.5%	n/a

The panel priced 14 contracts one by one and folded the other four into its field: Malik Nabers (0¢ bid, 2¢ ask), Kirk Cousins (1¢ / 2¢), Jonathon Brooks (0¢ / 2¢) and George Kittle (1¢ / 2¢). The 18 asks sum to 112 cents; the panel's 15 numbers sum to 97. Nabers was the board's second choice at 13 bid, 15 ask on Sept. 14.

The favorite is the one contract where the panel sits far under the ask, and the second choice is the one where it sits far over. Everything from Donald down is within two cents of the panel: the market and six models agree the race has two names in it, and disagree on how far apart they are.

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Every Seat's Number

Six seats, one data card, no prices. Round one was scored blind; round two let each seat read the other five boards under letters and revise. These are the round-two numbers, in percent.

Outcome	Kalshi bid / ask	Claude Fable	Claude Opus	Claude Sonnet	ChatGPT	Gemini	Kimi	Median
Patrick Mahomes	58 / 62	46	41	40.6	40	46	40	40.8
Joe Burrow	4 / 7	17	15	14.9	16	16	17	16.0
Field	none	9	10.5	8.9	10	9	13	9.5
Kyler Murray	4 / 5	5	4	5.0	6	5	5	5.0
Fred Warner	2 / 3	4	4	5.0	4.5	4	6	4.3
Daniel Jones	3 / 4	3	4	5.0	4.5	4	4	4.0
Nick Bosa	0 / 2	2.5	4	4.0	3.5	3	3	3.3
Aaron Donald	4 / 5	3	3	3.0	3.5	3	3	3.0
Michael Penix Jr.	2 / 4	3	3	4.0	3.5	3	3	3.0
Micah Parsons	0 / 2	2	4	3.0	2.5	2	2	2.3
Travis Hunter	0 / 2	2	2	1.5	1.5	1.5	1	1.5
Geno Smith	0 / 2	1	2	2.0	1.5	1	1	1.3
Tucker Kraft	0 / 2	1	2	1.5	1.5	1	0.5	1.2
Tank Dell	0 / 2	1	1	1.0	1	1	0.5	1.0
Tie/Co-Winners	0 / 2	0.5	0.5	1.0	0.5	0.5	1	0.5

• Every number in this piece gets graded in public once the market settles, on the full graded scoreboard.

The revision round is the story. In round one the six seats ran from 32 (Kimi) to 50 (Claude Fable) on Mahomes. After reading each other they finished between 40 and 46, and the two moves that closed the spread went in opposite directions. Kimi came up from 32 to 40 on the archetype: a famous quarterback, the cleanest qualifying injury, immediate production. Claude Fable came down from 50 to 46 on an argument it had not weighed, that Mahomes missed three regular-season games after his Week 15 injury, so a full year at his usual level can read to voters as a star staying great rather than a comeback. Claude Opus, holding at 41, put the ceiling plainly: <<<<<<< Updated upstream

More live boards from the same panel: NFL MVP 2026, where Josh Allen leads at 27¢ bid, 28¢ ask · NFL Defensive Player of the Year, where Aidan Hutchinson leads at 17¢ bid, 18¢ ask · NFL Coach of the Year. Sibling prices read September 23, 2026, 9:38 a.m. ET.

Forecaster E's 50 on Mahomes is too confident this early.

Claude Opus, round two (Forecaster E was Claude Fable's round-one 50)

On Burrow the seats moved toward each other and up. Claude Sonnet went 12 to 15, ChatGPT 15 to 16, Kimi trimmed 20 to 17, and Claude Fable held 17 against a peer's 12, on the grounds that "the no-third-award precedent is voter psychology, not a rule." No seat finished under 14.9. The other revision that mattered was the field: ChatGPT raised it from 4 to 10 after the panel argued that a race with 15 weeks left and four folded contracts deserves a fatter tail.

More live boards from the same panel: NFL MVP 2026, where Josh Allen leads at 27¢ bid, 28¢ ask · NFL Defensive Player of the Year, where Aidan Hutchinson leads at 17¢ bid, 18¢ ask · NFL Coach of the Year. Sibling prices read September 23, 2026, 8:38 a.m. ET.

Stashed changes

Sept. 14, Graded

The Sept. 14 edition ran an August panel of five seats (Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, GLM, Kimi, DeepSeek), scored before a snap was played. It had Mahomes at a 27.2% blend against 37 bid, 40 ask and called that a match once the unlisted mass was stripped out; the price has since gone to 58 bid, 62 ask, and the new panel's 41 sits on the other side of it. It carried Kyler Murray at 11.6% as its widest disagreement with a 5-cent bid; the market was right, and Murray is 4 bid, 5 ask nine days later with his first full start still ahead. It faded Malik Nabers at 4% against 13 bid, 15 ask; that contract is 0 bid, 2 ask this morning, and the new panel folded him into the field. It called Daniel Jones its best value at 9.4% against a 5-cent bid; Indianapolis is 0-2 and Jones is 3 bid, 4 ask. And it said 3 cents was too cheap for a healthy Joe Burrow in August; the ask is 7 now, and the new panel says that is still less than half of it. The Daniels point stands. The board has added an 18th contract since Sept. 14, Geno Smith, and there is still no contract for Jayden Daniels and no Field to hold him. What changed is the size of the missing piece: the August panel put 23% on unlisted names, and the new one puts 9.5% on the field, with Aaron Donald listed since August 30 and Washington 0-2.

Patrick Mahomes: The Coronation Came Two Games In

The market's case is the one every seat opened with. Mahomes tore the ACL and LCL in his left knee on December 14, 2025, had surgery the next morning, and started the opener 274 days later. He beat Denver 31-10, then went 32-of-47 for 382 yards and three touchdowns in the 33-30 overtime win over Indianapolis, his biggest passing game since 2023, per Yahoo Sports. Through two games he has 606 total yards, six touchdowns and one interception, and Kansas City is 2-0 a year after missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Five of the last six winners of this award were quarterbacks, and the AP's June 2024 clarification asks voters to honor missed time from injury. That is the whole profile, and it is his.

The panel's number is 41 because of what the profile leaves out. He missed three regular-season games, which is the shortest absence on the board; Burrow missed nine. Fifteen weeks of a repaired knee and a Chiefs season remain. And the seat that started at 50 talked itself down, not up, after reading the others. Six models that agree on every fact of the case still put a ceiling of 46 on it, and the ask is 62. At 62 cents a buyer is paying for Mahomes to win this award three times in five, in a race that is two weeks old and has a 2-0 Burrow in it. The panel makes it two in five. That is the largest gap on this board by a factor of two, and it is a price the panel would sell rather than buy.

Joe Burrow: The Widest Gap The Other Way

Burrow's 2025 was a Grade 3 turf toe in Week 2, surgery on September 19, nine games missed, and a Bengals team that went 1-8 without him on the way to 5-12, per NFL.com. His 2026 is 2-0: 25-of-35 for 254 yards in the 33-27 win over Tampa Bay, then 20-of-31 for 207 yards and two touchdowns, both to Ja'Marr Chase, in the 20-6 win at Houston. Measured against the clarified criteria, missed time from injury and a return to winning, his case is more literal than Mahomes's, and Kimi said so in round one: "Burrow fits the AP's clarified 2024 criteria better on the merits."

<<<<<<< Updated upstream The one thing against him is that he has won this award twice, in 2021 and 2024, and nobody has won it three times. The market prices that hurdle as close to disqualifying: 7 cents. The panel prices it as a discount: every seat held him between 14.9 and 17 after weighing it, and the seat that argued hardest for him, Claude Fable, held 17 against a peer's 12 because voters follow the season's best story and a contending Bengals team quarterbacked by the player they collapsed without is that story. The panel's view is that a healthy 2-0 Burrow is the favorite in waiting if Mahomes's knee or the Chiefs slip once, and 7 cents is the price of that. The buy on this board is Burrow at anything under 16, sized as a long shot at these odds.

The one thing against him is that he has won this award twice, in 2021 and 2024, and nobody has won it three times. The market prices that hurdle as close to disqualifying: 7 cents. The panel prices it as a discount: every seat held him between 14.9 and 17 after weighing it, and the seat that argued hardest for him, Claude Fable, held 17 against a peer's 12 because voters follow the season's best story and a contending Bengals team quarterbacked by the player they collapsed without is that story. The panel's view is that a healthy 2-0 Burrow is the favorite in waiting if Mahomes's knee or the Chiefs slip once, and 7 cents is the price of that. The buy on this board is Burrow at anything under 16, sized as a long shot, because that is what a 16 is.

Stashed changes

The Second Tier: Priced Right, In Order Of What Changed

Kyler Murray, Minnesota (4¢ / 5¢; panel 5.0). He left the 39-22 win over Green Bay in the first quarter with a concussion, Carson Wentz started the 9-3 win at Chicago, and Murray has been cleared to start Week 3 for a 2-0 team, per USA Today. The market and the panel are level here. ChatGPT cut him from 9 to 6 in revision because a missed week is a continuity problem in a race where the top two are already stacking evidence, and no seat went above 6.

Fred Warner, San Francisco (2¢ / 3¢; panel 4.3). The best non-quarterback case on the board. Back from the fractured and dislocated right ankle that ended his 2025 in Week 6, he has a forced fumble in each of the 49ers' two wins, 11 tackles against the Rams and five tackles with half a sack in the 35-13 win over Miami, per CBS Sports. Kimi's 6 is the panel high, and Gemini doubled him from 2 to 4 in revision on those two games. The drag is the position: Christian McCaffrey last year is the one non-quarterback winner in the last six, and a linebacker needs both quarterbacks' cases to break.

Daniel Jones, Indianapolis (3¢ / 4¢; panel 4.0). The Achilles tore on December 7, 2025, with the Colts 8-2; they lost their last seven. He is back and playing, 22-of-31 for 210 yards in the overtime loss at Kansas City, and the team is 0-2. Gemini's round-two line is the panel's: an 0-2 start "historically suffocates narrative momentum." The August panel's best value is now a contract the market and the panel agree on to the cent.

Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta (2¢ / 4¢; panel 3.0). He starts Thursday night against Green Bay, his first snaps since the partial ACL tear in Week 11 of 2025, after Tua Tagovailoa started the two losses that have the Falcons at 0-2, per the Falcons. A quarterback off an ACL is the cleanest archetype on this list, which is why Claude Fable nudged him up to 3; the hole he starts from is why nobody went higher than Claude Sonnet's 4.

Aaron Donald, Los Angeles Rams (4¢ / 5¢; panel 3.0). Three tackles in his Week 2 debut, per the Rams. All six seats land at 3 or 3.5 for the reason the August panel put Kirk Cousins at zero: the clarification honors missed time from injury or illness, and Donald missed two seasons by retiring. The two cents above the panel is the name.

Geno Smith, New York Jets (0¢ / 2¢; panel 1.3). The 18th contract, added since Sept. 14, for a quarterback whose 2025 in Las Vegas was 17 interceptions and two wins in 15 starts. The panel read his case as a resurgence, the kind the 2024 clarification steers voters away from. Micah Parsons (PUP) and Tank Dell (injured reserve) are both eligible from Week 5, and their 2.3 and 1.0 are a late-season path priced as one.

The Market Card

The event is KXNFLCPOTY-27 on Kalshi, 18 contracts, each reading the same way with only the name changing: "If Patrick Mahomes wins the Pro Football AP Comeback Player of the Year in the 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes." The board carries an expected expiration of March 23, 2027. There is no Field or Other contract. If the winner is anyone not listed, every contract resolves No, and the panel's 9.5% field, the piece with Jayden Daniels in it, has no home on the board.

The award is chosen by 50 AP media members and announced at NFL Honors during Super Bowl week, so the 2026-season winner is named in February 2027. In June 2024 the AP clarified the criteria: the award is meant "to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season." That sentence is why two quarterbacks who missed real time sit at the top of the panel's board and Geno Smith and Aaron Donald sit near the bottom.

Sportsbooks price the same award in American odds, and they list the name this board does not: NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds 2026.

Availability varies by platform and location.

Settlement Timeline

What	When
Week 3	September 24 to 28, 2026 (Penix's first start Thursday, Murray's return Sunday)
Regular Season	September 2026 to January 2027
Award Announced	NFL Honors, Super Bowl week, February 2027
Contract Expected Expiration	March 23, 2027

<<<<<<< Updated upstream This page is re-scored when the story moves. Prices as of September 23, 2026, 9:38 a.m. ET; panel numbers as of September 23, 2026.

This page is re-scored when the story moves. Prices as of September 23, 2026, 8:38 a.m. ET; panel numbers as of September 23, 2026.

Stashed changes

The Bottom Line

Two 2-0 quarterbacks came back from injuries that ended their 2025, and the market has priced one of them at 62 cents and the other at 7. Six models, blind to both prices, make it 41 and 16. The favorite is right and the price is early; the second choice is a two-time winner whose third-award hurdle the panel treats as a discount and the market treats as a wall. Underneath them the board is priced to the cent, and the name the sportsbooks list second still has no contract here.

Prices on this page are Kalshi's book. If you also trade on Polymarket, code OS4 gets new users a $50 trading bonus on a $10 deposit — affiliate link; terms as stated by Polymarket; 18+, availability varies by state.

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