The Read
A quarterback walking into the best pass defense he'll see all month. A receiver who gets the coverage he was built to beat. A running back the sharpest book already prices a carry lower. Two tight ends the market hasn't caught up to. A receiver his own team barely throws to. Six Sunday props, and the lines will move all week.
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The Lines
| Prop | Consensus | Best price at the number | Pinnacle | Books range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love passing yards (under) | 239.5 | Caesars -107; Fanatics posts 240.5 (-115) | 238.5 (-114 / -114) | 237.5 (Bet365) to 240.5 (Fanatics) |
| Chris Olave receiving yards (over) | 76.5 | Bet365 -110; FanDuel -114 | 76.5 (-116 / -114) | 74.5 (BetMGM) to 79.5 (Fanatics) |
| Quinshon Judkins rush attempts (under) | 16.5 | DraftKings -124 | 15.5 (-103 / -128) | 15.5 (Pinnacle) to 16.5 (DraftKings) |
| Colston Loveland receiving yards (over) | 50.5 | FanDuel -114; Hard Rock posts 49.5 (-125) | 50.5 (-136 / +102) | 49.5 (Hard Rock) to 53.5 (Bet365) |
| Cade Otton receiving yards (over) | 29.5 | DraftKings, FanDuel and Caesars post 28.5 (-114) | 28.5 (-114 / -114) | 24.5 (Hard Rock) to 30.5 (BetRivers) |
| Rashod Bateman receiving yards (under) | 26.5 | Bet365 -110; DraftKings -112 | 24.5 (-114 / -114) | 24.5 (Pinnacle) to 26.5 (Bet365) |
Lines as of September 8, 2026, from the OddsShopper board; they move daily. All six games are Sunday: Packers at Vikings is 4:25 p.m. ET in a dome, Vikings -1.5, total 46.5. Saints at Lions is 1 p.m. ET in a dome, Lions -7, total 49.5. Browns at Jaguars is 1 p.m. ET in Jacksonville, Jaguars -8.5, total 40.5, forecast 97 degrees and no wind. Bears at Panthers is 1 p.m. ET in Charlotte, Bears -3, total 47.5. Buccaneers at Bengals is 1 p.m. ET in Cincinnati, Bengals -3.5, total 50.5. Ravens at Colts is 1 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium, Ravens -3.5, total 47.5.
Jordan Love Under 239.5 Passing Yards
Minnesota allowed 172.3 passing yards a game last season, fewest in the league, and the second-fewest explosive passes. It sacked quarterbacks on 8.9% of dropbacks and hit them on 17.2%, both third-most, and Love under pressure averaged 5.0 yards per attempt with a 46.7 passer rating, worse than nineteen of every twenty starters. In the November meeting he went 14 of 21 for 139. He averaged 225.4 a game and cleared 239.5 in 6 of 15. Jonathan Greenard was traded, but Dallas Turner had eight sacks in ten starts behind him, and the Packers' line is the same group the Vikings beat calls a slight step backward.
Jordan Love under 239.5 passing yards, -107 on Caesars, or under 240.5 at -115 on Fanatics.
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Chris Olave Over 76.5 Receiving Yards
Detroit is the defense Olave's game is built for. The Lions played man on 32.0% of snaps last year, third-most in the league, and Olave was targeted on 31.4% of his routes against man, better than 94% of receivers. Quarterbacks threw deep on Detroit more than on anyone: 5.0 attempts of 20-plus air yards a game and a 9.9-yard average depth, both the highest in the league. Olave had 31 deep targets and 38.5% of New Orleans' air yards. The corners are worse than the ones who produced those numbers: Terrion Arnold was released in June, D.J. Reed missed six games last year, and Detroit was still auditioning the starter opposite Reed this week. He cleared 76.5 only 6 times in 16 games last year, but Spencer Rattler was his quarterback for the first nine of them, and in the seven games with Shough starting he averaged 9.9 targets and 86 yards. The Saints are seven-point dogs, which is how a receiver gets 10 targets.
Chris Olave over 76.5 receiving yards, -110 on Bet365. FanDuel has the same number at -114; DraftKings has moved to 77.5.
Quinshon Judkins Under 16.5 Rush Attempts
Nobody ran on Jacksonville last year: the Jaguars allowed 70.8 rushing yards a game and 3.63 yards a carry, fewest and fourth-fewest in the league, and their opponents passed on 69.4% of their plays, the highest rate anyone faced, which is what offenses do when runs stop working. The four linemen who did it are all back: Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker on the edges, DaVon Hamilton and Arik Armstead inside, in Anthony Campanile's second year. Cleveland is an 8.5-point dog with a 40.5 total, and a trailing Todd Monken offense throws to Harold Fannin; the Ravens ran as much as anyone under Monken, but that was Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Judkins is back from December ankle surgery as the lead back, and Dylan Sampson has the passing downs. Cleveland lost 14 games last year and still fed him 16 a game, but Sampson owns the third downs now and Jacksonville's front held backs to 3.7 a carry, the number that gets a run game shelved. The sharp book sits a full carry lower: Pinnacle posts 15.5 and charges -128 on the under, while DraftKings posts 16.5 at -124.
Quinshon Judkins under 16.5 rush attempts, -124 on DraftKings.
Colston Loveland Over 50.5 Receiving Yards
Loveland's rookie season was two seasons. Through Week 14 he shared snaps with Cole Kmet and averaged five targets. From Week 15 on he played 65%, 83%, 82% and 91% of the snaps, saw 10 and 13 targets in the last two games, and went 63, 30, 94 and 91, an average of 69.5 against a line at 50.5. He led the Bears with 58 catches for 713 yards, and Ben Johnson plays him and Kmet together so the defense can't guess run or pass. Carolina plays zone on 83.1% of its snaps, the most in the league, under Ejiro Evero in his fourth year, and against zone Loveland ran 1.93 yards per route and was targeted on 21.3% of his routes; the Panthers allowed 8.86 yards per target to tight ends, second-most in football. He cleared 50.5 only five times in 16 games and Carolina added Devin Lloyd at linebacker to cover him, but the five came once he had a starter's snaps, and Pinnacle charges -136 on this over, the strongest lean on any tight end on the board; Bet365 has already moved its number to 53.5.
Colston Loveland over 50.5 receiving yards, -114 on FanDuel. Hard Rock has 49.5 at -125.
Cade Otton Over 28.5 Receiving Yards
Cincinnati allowed 9.7 tight end targets and 84.9 tight end receiving yards a game last year, most in the league on both, and 8.75 yards per target, third-most. The people responsible are mostly still there: Demetrius Knight and Barrett Carter, the rookie linebackers who started after Logan Wilson was traded, start again, and the one change is Bryan Cook at safety, signed from Kansas City. Otton played 93.5% of Tampa Bay's snaps last year and drew 5.4 targets a game, and the targets around him opened up: Mike Evans took 7.8 a game in his eight games and is a 49er now, and Sterling Shepard's 4.1 are gone with him. Otton cleared 28.5 in only 7 of 15 games and ran 0.59 yards per route against man, but Cincinnati played man on about a quarter of its snaps, and 465 of his yards in the coverage data came against zone. No receptions line has posted; a target funnel would be a receptions bet first.
Cade Otton over 28.5 receiving yards, -114 on DraftKings, FanDuel or Caesars.
Rashod Bateman Under 26.5 Receiving Yards
Baltimore threw on 47.3% of its neutral-situation snaps last year, second-lowest in the league, and when it threw, the ball went to Zay Flowers, who took 29.1% of the targets, and to Mark Andrews. Bateman was targeted on 12% of his routes and ran 0.70 yards per route, both near the bottom of the position; he averaged 17.2 yards a game and cleared 25.5 twice in 13 games. Indianapolis allowed the second-most receiving yards to wide receivers last year, but Sauce Gardner was hurt for much of it and Charvarius Ward played through a back, and both are practicing this week to take Flowers and whoever lines up across from him. Declan Doyle has used Bateman in the slot more this summer, but the targets he would need come out of Flowers' share in an offense that ran it 27.0 times a game, and rookie Ja'Kobi Lane is pushing for the three-receiver snaps.
Rashod Bateman under 26.5 receiving yards, -110 on Bet365 or -112 on DraftKings. Pinnacle and FanDuel post lower numbers; take the 26.5. One 30-yard catch beats it; the argument is the offense around him.
Bottom Line
Love under 239.5 is the play I'd make first. Olave over 76.5 is where the coverage and the receiver fit best. Judkins under 16.5 is the one the sharp book agrees with. Loveland over 50.5 carries the strongest lean on any tight end on the board. Otton over 28.5 is the target funnel. Bateman under 26.5 asks the least of the player.
Follow Dave on X: @Loughy.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Jordan Love photo by All-Pro Reels, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; Quinshon Judkins photo by Erik Drost, licensed CC BY 4.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
Odds quoted are from the OddsShopper live-odds board as of September 8, 2026, and will move before Sunday, September 13, 2026; always check the number at your book before betting. OddsShopper is an independent analyst: any figures referenced are estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Must be 21+ to wager at a sportsbook (18+ on prediction markets); availability varies by state. Betting involves risk. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
