The Favorite Costs 28 Cents. The Panel Stops At 22
Josh Allen's contract on the Kalshi NFL MVP board sits at 27 cents bid, 28 asked. Five AI models, asked to price the same race this morning without seeing a price, put him at a median of 22%, and not one of the five went above 23. Six points on the favorite is the widest gap on the board, and it runs the opposite way from August, when the panel had Allen a shade under his price.
The next gap belongs to Patrick Mahomes and points the other direction: 8 cents bid, 9 asked, against a panel median of 13%. Brock Purdy is the one contract in the top five where the two sides agree, 9 to 10 cents against a 10% median. Joe Burrow, also 9 to 10 cents, gets 7% from the panel.
Then there is Drake Maye. A month ago this page led with him, because all eight seats of the August panel ranked him first at a 13.5% median. His contract now sits at 4 cents bid, 5 asked, and the new panel's median is 1%. Four interceptions and no touchdown passes across a 13-10 loss at Seattle and a 20-3 win over Pittsburgh did that.
Prices as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026, 9:38 a.m. ET, Kalshi bids and asks before fees. The panel ran the same morning, after the pull.
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New to this corner of the market? Our step-by-step guide to NFL event contracts on Kalshi explains how these contracts settle and what a cent actually buys you.
How This Board Was Priced
The market is Kalshi event KXNFLMVP-27, "MVP Winner?", now 47 yes/no contracts: 46 players plus one that pays only if the AP vote produces co-winners. Each player contract settles YES if he wins the AP regular-season MVP for the 2026-27 season; playoffs do not count. Settlement is expected on or around March 14, 2027. Two contracts are new since August, Derrick Henry and Kenneth Walker, both at no bid and a 1-cent ask.
Six seats were asked: Claude Fable, Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, ChatGPT, Gemini and Kimi. Each got the same card: the 14 names priced above a cent, the other 33 contracts grouped as a field, every team's record after Week 2 and all 32 results, with no prices anywhere. Three seats searched for dated reporting on every candidate first and all of them priced off that shared evidence pack, then read each other's boards with the lab names stripped and could revise. Claude Fable helped build the evidence pack but did not return a board, so five seats stand behind the numbers below. Each board adds to 100 with the field; the number shown is the median.
The Board: 47 Contracts
A cent on a yes contract is a percentage point, so the gap column is the panel median minus the ask, in points. Positive means the panel has the name above what it costs.
| Name | Team, record | Kalshi bid / ask | Panel median | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | Bills, 2-0 | 27¢ / 28¢ | 22% | -6 |
| Joe Burrow | Bengals, 2-0 | 9¢ / 10¢ | 7% | -3 |
| Brock Purdy | 49ers, 2-0 | 9¢ / 10¢ | 10% | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs, 2-0 | 8¢ / 9¢ | 13% | +4 |
| Lamar Jackson | Ravens, 1-1 | 7¢ / 8¢ | 7% | -1 |
| Tyler Shough | Saints, 1-1 | 4¢ / 5¢ | 1.5% | -3.5 |
| Dak Prescott | Cowboys, 1-1 | 4¢ / 5¢ | 3% | -2 |
| Drake Maye | Patriots, 1-1 | 4¢ / 5¢ | 1% | -4 |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars, 1-1 | 3¢ / 4¢ | 2% | -2 |
| Matthew Stafford | Rams, 1-1 | 3¢ / 4¢ | 5% | +1 |
| Jalen Hurts | Eagles, 2-0 | 3¢ / 4¢ | 6% | +2 |
| Caleb Williams | Bears, 1-1 | 3¢ / 4¢ | 1.5% | -2.5 |
| Jordan Love | Packers, 1-1 | 1¢ / 2¢ | 2% | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | Chargers, 0-2 | 1¢ / 2¢ | 0.5% | -1.5 |
| The field (33 contracts) | 0¢ / 1¢ each; Gibbs 0¢ / 2¢ | 18% | asks add to 34 |
Jahmyr Gibbs is the one field contract with a 2-cent ask. The other 32 show no bid and a 1-cent ask: A.J. Brown, Aaron Rodgers, Ashton Jeanty, Baker Mayfield, Bijan Robinson, Bo Nix, Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Cam Ward, CeeDee Lamb, Christian McCaffrey, Daniel Jones, Derrick Henry, JJ McCarthy, Ja'Marr Chase, Jared Goff, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jaxson Dart, Jayden Daniels, Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, Justin Jefferson, Kenneth Walker, Kyler Murray, Micah Parsons, Michael Penix Jr, Myles Garrett, Puka Nacua, Sam Darnold, Saquon Barkley, Tua Tagovailoa, and the Tie/Co-Winners contract.
Every Seat's Number
Round-two figures, after each seat read the other four boards and had the option to revise.
| Name | Ask | Median | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | ChatGPT | Gemini | Kimi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 28¢ | 22% | 23% | 22% | 22% | 21% | 20% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 9¢ | 13% | 11% | 11% | 16% | 13% | 15% |
| Brock Purdy | 10¢ | 10% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 10% | 12% |
| Joe Burrow | 10¢ | 7% | 8% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 7% |
| Lamar Jackson | 8¢ | 7% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 7% |
| Jalen Hurts | 4¢ | 6% | 5.5% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 7% |
| Matthew Stafford | 4¢ | 5% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 5% |
| Dak Prescott | 5¢ | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3.5% | 3% | 2% |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4¢ | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| Jordan Love | 2¢ | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2.5% | 2% | 2% |
| Tyler Shough | 5¢ | 1.5% | 1% | 2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1% |
| Caleb Williams | 4¢ | 1.5% | 2% | 2% | 1.5% | 1% | 0.5% |
| Drake Maye | 5¢ | 1% | 1.5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Justin Herbert | 2¢ | 0.5% | 1% | 1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| The field | 18% | 18% | 17% | 10.5% | 20% | 19% |
The blend is the median, not the average, so one seat cannot drag a name on its own. Every settled call from every seat is scored in public on the model-verdict scoreboard once the AP announces.
More live boards from the same panel: the 2026 win-total board, the Comeback Player market and the 2027 Super Bowl board.
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August, Graded
The August edition of this page ran eight seats on a card built from the 2025 season, and all eight put Drake Maye first: a 13.5% median against a 6.5-cent price, with 12.3% the lowest number any seat gave him. It was the largest gap on that board, and two games later it is the one that failed hardest. His contract is 4 cents bid, 5 asked, and the new median is 1%. The August panel also had Josh Allen at 9.7% against 10.5 cents and Patrick Mahomes at 3.5% against 6.5 cents, and both names have moved a long way the other direction. What held was the bottom of the board. The August fade on Justin Herbert, 2.6% against 8.5 cents, is now a 1-to-2-cent contract, and the August agreement on Matthew Stafford at 6.5% has become 5% against 3 to 4 cents.
Josh Allen: Nine Touchdowns, No Turnovers, And A Ceiling
Allen has 582 passing yards, 5 passing touchdowns, 92 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns through two games, with no turnovers, and Buffalo is 2-0 after 36-31 at Houston and 41-31 over Detroit. He is the third player to open a season with nine touchdowns and no turnovers. The other two, Peyton Manning in 2013 and Patrick Mahomes in 2018, won the award that year.
Every seat led with that fact, and every seat still stopped short of the price. The five numbers run 20 to 23. Kimi held 20 because Allen has lost the yardage and efficiency arguments to other quarterbacks late in past seasons. Claude Sonnet held 22 because an early favorite in a 17-week race rarely clears a quarter. Claude Opus went highest at 23 and, in the revision round, said the seats below him had the weaker argument:
Their best argument, 15 games left, is already priced in. The stronger fact cuts the other way: both earlier players who opened with 9+ TDs and 0 turnovers won MVP.
The market pays 28 for the same case. The panel's read is that a 2024 winner with a historic start on a 2-0 team is the clear favorite and still a 22% proposition, because the award went to the quarterback of a No. 1 seed nine times in the eleven years through 2023, and nobody has earned that seed in September. If Buffalo is still on top of the AFC in November, the number and the price meet in the middle. Until then the six points are the cost of buying the favorite early.
Patrick Mahomes: The Four Cents The Panel Adds
Mahomes tore the ACL and LCL in his left knee on December 14, 2025, had surgery the next day, and started the Chiefs' opener 274 days later. Two games in he has 566 passing yards, 5 touchdowns, 1 interception, 40 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown, and Kansas City is 2-0 after 31-10 over Denver and 33-30 in overtime over Indianapolis, with the league's top-ranked offense through two weeks.
His contract is 8 cents bid, 9 asked. The panel's median is 13%, and no seat went below 11. ChatGPT went highest at 16 and Kimi at 15, on the same logic: a 2-0 team with the best offense in the league is the seed half of the award, and a return from a torn ACL to a top seed is a story voters reward. Claude Sonnet started at 7 and moved to 11 in the revision round after reading that case. Claude Opus landed at 11 too, and the two Claude seats stopped there because a quarterback nine months off knee surgery carries more risk of missing games than a healthy one, and 5 passing touchdowns in two games is a good line rather than an outlier one.
The knee is the discount and every seat named it; Mahomes has said himself the injury will likely affect him the rest of his career. The panel's answer is that 9 cents charges for it twice, and that 13 is the number for a two-time winner leading a 2-0 team with the top offense.
The Five-Cent Row: Shough, Prescott, Maye
Three contracts sit at 4 cents bid, 5 asked, tied for sixth on the board, and the panel likes none of them at that price.
Tyler Shough has 662 passing yards and 4 touchdowns against 2 interceptions, and in Week 2 he went 27-of-34 for 252 yards, threw a fourth-quarter touchdown and ran in the go-ahead score from a yard out to beat Baltimore 24-17. New Orleans is 1-1. The panel's median is 1.5%, and the reason is structural rather than a knock on the numbers: the award goes to the quarterback of a top seed, and Claude Opus called him a real but distant long shot because the Saints are unlikely to be one.
Dak Prescott went 26-of-31 for 279 yards and 4 touchdowns in a 37-20 win over Washington, and his 249th career touchdown pass broke Tony Romo's franchise record. The week before, Dallas lost 28-20 at the Giants with Prescott at 175 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception. The panel puts him at 3%, with no seat above 3.5. A 1-1 team with a 175-yard opener is not yet a seed case.
Drake Maye threw three interceptions, all in the fourth quarter, in the 13-10 loss at Seattle, then went 14-of-22 for 208 yards with no touchdowns and another interception in the 20-3 win over Pittsburgh. Claude Opus opened him at 4 and cut him to 1.5 once another seat put that two-game line in front of him, writing that an MVP candidate rarely recovers from a start that bad. Claude Sonnet is the high seat at 3, because one bad fortnight from last year's runner-up still leaves a tail. The median is 1, and the market's 5 cents is the memory of February.
Where The Panel Pays Up
Two names carry a positive gap, and both are small. Jalen Hurts has 467 passing yards, 5 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on a 100.7 rating, and Philadelphia is 2-0 after he hit Darius Cooper from three yards out with nine seconds left to beat Tennessee 24-20. The contract is 3 cents bid, 4 asked; the panel's median is 6%, with ChatGPT and Kimi at 7. The cap, per Claude Opus, is that voters have tended to credit the Eagles' roster rather than the quarterback.
Matthew Stafford opened the defense of his award with 155 yards and an interception in a 27-7 loss to San Francisco, which snapped his streak of 17 straight games with a touchdown pass, then went 22-of-31 for 327 yards and 4 touchdowns in a 28-6 Monday night win over the Giants. The Rams are 1-1. The panel has the reigning winner at 5% against 3 to 4 cents; ChatGPT and Kimi each moved him up a point after the Monday game. What keeps him under 7 is that no MVP has repeated at 38.
The field is the other overweight, and the biggest one on the page: 18% on 33 contracts that cost a cent or two each. The seats named the same handful of quarterbacks as the reason it is not smaller: Sam Darnold on a 2-0 Seattle team, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, CJ Stroud, Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield. Kimi trimmed its field from 22 to 19 because Week 2 already culled it, with Daniels, Stroud and Mayfield on 0-2 teams. ChatGPT was the low seat at 10.5 and Gemini the high at 20, and the boards agree on the shape: the winner has come from the priced names far more often than not, but not always.
Where The Panel Changed Its Mind
The revision round moved the second tier and the field, not the leader. Gemini raised Josh Allen from 18 to 21 on the point that rushing touchdowns pad totals durably; every other seat held.
ChatGPT cut Brock Purdy from 16 to 12, its largest revision, after two seats argued that elite efficiency behind an injured receiving corps is less bankable as an MVP story than a 95.7 QBR suggests. Kimi went the other way on Purdy, 10 to 12, because a 20-of-22, 287-yard, 149.1-rating game in a 35-13 win is exactly the profile voters have rewarded when the team takes the top seed. The two crossed and the median stayed at 10, where the market has him.
ChatGPT doubled its field, 5 to 10.5, and Gemini more than doubled its own, 9 to 20, after reading three boards in the high teens. Claude Sonnet raised Mahomes from 7 to 11 and cut Maye from 5 to 3. Claude Opus cut Maye from 4 to 1.5 and Herbert from 2 to 1 and pushed the freed points to Mahomes, Purdy and Hurts. Nobody moved Lamar Jackson more than a point: 1-1 with a 41-point opener and a game-ending interception the next week is a profile every seat read the same way.
Settlement Timeline
| Date | What happens |
|---|---|
| September 23, 2026 | Prices and panel numbers on this page, two of 17 weeks played |
| Early January 2027 | Regular season ends; all MVP-relevant production is final |
| February 2027 | AP announces the award at NFL Honors |
| On or around March 14, 2027 | Expected settlement of every contract on the board |
This page is re-scored when the story moves, and the whole board is rebuilt rather than patched.
The Bottom Line
The panel agrees with the market on the order and disagrees on the distance. Josh Allen at 22 rather than 28, because a September favorite has to become a January No. 1 seed before the number earns the price. Patrick Mahomes at 13 rather than 9, because a 2-0 team with the league's top offense is the seed case already, and the knee is priced twice. Brock Purdy at 10 on both sides.
The August lesson is that a card built from last season priced a race that had not started. This card is built from the two weeks that have been played, and it carries a 1% on the man the old card put first. The price still has him at 5.
To be explicit: the panel's numbers are estimates, and this is analysis of a CFTC-regulated event-contract market for readers 18 and older, not betting advice and not a recommendation to trade. Availability varies by state and changes over time, so check Kalshi's current rules before doing anything with a number on this page.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Drake Maye photo by Tennessee Titans, licensed CC BY 3.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
Prices on this page are Kalshi's book. If you also trade on Polymarket, code OS4 gets new users a $50 trading bonus on a $10 deposit — affiliate link; terms as stated by Polymarket; 18+, availability varies by state.
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