TL;DR
Training camps opened this week and Kalshi prices 45 names for 2026 NFL MVP. The panel's top five: Patrick Mahomes (13%), Josh Allen (11%), Lamar Jackson (9%), Joe Burrow (8%), Jalen Hurts (6%). Every verdict was made price-blind, and the board below shows all 45 with every model's number next to the crowd's.
The MVP market is really a base-rate exam: the award goes to a quarterback on a winning team almost every year, and the interesting question is which quarterbacks the models separate from the pack, and where they disagree with the money. Eight models scored all 45 candidates independently. The spreads inside the panel, not just the blend, are where the real information sits.
Where The Machines Split From The Money
Justin Herbert: market 10¢, AI blend 4% (6 points below the crowd). Claude Opus: "Herbert is elite but Chargers rarely dominate; MVP requires a top seed and MVP-level narrative, making him a longshot."
Patrick Mahomes: market 7¢, AI blend 13% (6 points above the crowd). Claude Sonnet: "Mahomes remains elite on a strong Chiefs team, but MVP voter fatigue and other rising QBs make repeat wins unlikely."
Matthew Stafford: market 7¢, AI blend 1.4% (6 points below the crowd). DeepSeek V4: "Stafford will be 38, past his prime, on a Rams team unlikely to dominate, making MVP extremely unlikely."
Caleb Williams: market 7¢, AI blend 3% (4 points below the crowd). Claude Fable: "Talented young QB but Bears must leap to contention; MVP field dominated by established elite QBs, making Williams a longshot."
The Full Board: 45 Candidates, Eight Models
| Outcome | Kalshi | AI blend | ChatGPT (GPT-5.5) | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | Gemini 3.1 Pro | GLM 5.2 | Kimi K3 | DeepSeek V4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 7¢ | 13% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 22% | 15% | 13% | 11% | 12% |
| Josh Allen | 10¢ | 11% | 8% | 14% | 11% | 14% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 10% |
| Lamar Jackson | 11¢ | 9% | 8% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 8% | 10% | 8% | 7% |
| Joe Burrow | 10¢ | 8% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 9% |
| Jalen Hurts | 2¢ | 6% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 5% |
| CJ Stroud | 2¢ | 6% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 12% |
| Jayden Daniels | 4¢ | 5% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 4% |
| Brock Purdy | 5¢ | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 4% |
| Dak Prescott | 6¢ | 4% | 1.8% | 2% | 2% | 10% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% |
| Justin Herbert | 10¢ | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 3% |
| Jordan Love | 4¢ | 3% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 2% |
| Jared Goff | 1¢ | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% |
| Drake Maye | 7¢ | 3% | 1.8% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 1.5% | 4% | 1.5% |
| Caleb Williams | 7¢ | 3% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Baker Mayfield | 2¢ | 2% | — | 4% | 3% | 3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2% | 1.5% |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3¢ | 2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| Bo Nix | 3¢ | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2% | 1.5% |
| JJ McCarthy | 1¢ | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2% | 2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2% | 1.5% |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1¢ | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1.5% |
| Kyler Murray | 2¢ | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1.5% |
| Matthew Stafford | 7¢ | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 3% | 0.5% |
| Michael Penix Jr | 1¢ | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2% | 1.2% | 3% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Saquon Barkley | 1¢ | 1.3% | 0.4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Sam Darnold | 3¢ | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2% | 0.1% | 1.5% | 3% | 1.0% |
| Bijan Robinson | 1¢ | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 2% | 2% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 2% | 0.5% |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1¢ | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 2% | 2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Justin Jefferson | 1¢ | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 1¢ | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 2% | 3% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Cam Ward | 1¢ | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 3% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Tie/Co-Winners | 1¢ | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 1.5% | 3% | 0.2% |
| Bryce Young | 1¢ | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Micah Parsons | 1¢ | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 2% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 1¢ | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Ashton Jeanty | 1¢ | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 1¢ | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1¢ | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Puka Nacua | 1¢ | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Josh Jacobs | 1¢ | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Jaxson Dart | 1¢ | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1¢ | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Myles Garrett | 1¢ | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Daniel Jones | 1¢ | 0.4% | — | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Shough | 1¢ | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 1¢ | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| A.J. Brown | 1¢ | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Model estimates generated July 24, 2026, price-blind. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange; 18+, availability varies by state.
Related Verdicts
FAQ
Why do the model percentages differ from the Kalshi price?
The models never see the price. When they disagree with the crowd, one side is wrong, and we grade every verdict against real settlements on our scoreboard.
Are model verdicts betting advice?
No. Model verdicts are model estimates, not betting or financial advice. Treat them as one input among many and make your own decisions.
