Who is favored for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year? David Bailey, the Jets edge rusher, at 22 to 23 cents on Kalshi as of September 23, and the six-model panel has him higher, at 26. The widest gap on the board is one row down: Jacob Rodriguez at 16 to 21 cents against a panel at 4.
Updated September 23, 2026 · 10 min read · by Jake Hari
Two weeks into the season the market has moved this board's mistake from a safety to a linebacker. Jacob Rodriguez, the Dolphins' second-round linebacker, sits at 16 cents bid and 21 cents ask, the second price on the board behind only David Bailey. Six models scored the whole 28-contract field this morning without seeing a price, then read each other's boards and revised, and all six put Rodriguez at 4 or 5. A 17-cent gap to the ask is the widest on the board, and it runs the opposite way from this page's August read, which had Rodriguez as the panel's favorite value at 6 cents.
The reason is a few rows down. Anthony Hill Jr., the Titans' second-round linebacker, leads the NFL with 26 tackles and set the rookie record with 16 in his debut. Rodriguez has 22 tackles, no sacks and no takeaways, and both play for 0-2 teams. The price on Hill is 2 to 3 cents; the panel has him at 11. Meanwhile the panel's lead on Bailey grew, 26 against 23 cents where the Sept. 7 edition had 22 against 17, and the safety problem this page was named for got priced: Caleb Downs fell from 20 cents to 16 to 17, and the panel that had him at 4.5 in August gives him 14.5 now.
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<<<<<<< Updated upstream Prices as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026, 9:40 a.m. ET, Kalshi bid and ask before fees. The AP names the winner at NFL Honors in February 2027, and the contracts carry an expected expiration of March 30, 2027. This page is re-scored when the story moves.
Prices as of Wednesday, September 23, 2026, 8:40 a.m. ET, Kalshi bid and ask before fees. The AP names the winner at NFL Honors in February 2027, and the contracts carry an expected expiration of March 30, 2027. This page is re-scored when the story moves.
Stashed changes
The Board
Every contract the panel priced, plus the 14 it grouped as the field. Gap is the panel median minus the ask, in cents; positive means the panel has the player above the price. Position, team and draft slot come from the 2026 NFL Draft; records are ESPN finals through Week 2.
| Rookie | Position, team (draft slot) | Record | Bid / Ask | Panel median | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bailey | EDGE, New York Jets (#2) | 1-1 | 22¢ / 23¢ | 26 | +3 |
| Jacob Rodriguez | LB, Miami Dolphins (#43) | 0-2 | 16¢ / 21¢ | 4 | -17 |
| Caleb Downs | S, Dallas Cowboys (#11) | 1-1 | 16¢ / 17¢ | 14.5 | -2.5 |
| Sonny Styles | LB, Washington Commanders (#7) | 0-2 | 10¢ / 11¢ | 4 | -7 |
| Rueben Bain Jr. | EDGE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#15) | 0-2 | 4¢ / 5¢ | 3 | -2 |
| Josiah Trotter | LB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#46) | 0-2 | 3¢ / 4¢ | 9.5 | +5.5 |
| Gabe Jacas | EDGE, New England Patriots (#55) | 1-1 | 3¢ / 4¢ | 2 | -2 |
| Mansoor Delane | CB, Kansas City Chiefs (#6) | 2-0 | 3¢ / 4¢ | 4 | 0 |
| Arvell Reese | LB, New York Giants (#5) | 1-1 | 3¢ / 4¢ | 3 | -1 |
| Akheem Mesidor | EDGE, Los Angeles Chargers (#22) | 0-2 | 3¢ / 4¢ | 3 | -1 |
| Anthony Hill Jr. | LB, Tennessee Titans (#60) | 0-2 | 2¢ / 3¢ | 11 | +8 |
| Dillon Thieneman | S, Chicago Bears (#25) | 1-1 | 2¢ / 3¢ | 2 | -1 |
| Cashius Howell | EDGE, Cincinnati Bengals (#41) | 2-0 | 1¢ / 3¢ | 3 | 0 |
| Caleb Banks | DT, Minnesota Vikings (#18) | 2-0 | 0¢ / 2¢ | 1 | -1 |
| The field (14 contracts) | Cisse, Faulk, Woods, Parker, Muhammad, Stukes, Young, McDonald, McCoy, McNeil-Warren, Ponds, Hood, Allen, Tie/Co-Winners | n/a | 0¢ / 1¢ to 2¢ each | 8.5 | n/a |
More live boards from the same panel: NFL Defensive Player of the Year, where Aidan Hutchinson leads at 17¢ · NFL Comeback Player of the Year, where Patrick Mahomes leads at 58¢ · NFL Coach of the Year, where Kellen Moore leads at 15¢. Prices fetched September 23, 2026.
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Every Seat's Number
Six seats scored this board: Claude Fable, Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, ChatGPT, Gemini and Kimi, a different six from August, which used GLM and DeepSeek in place of ChatGPT and Gemini. Each saw the same data card, the draft results, the Week 1 and Week 2 finals and the award's history, with no price attached, then read the other five boards anonymously and revised. The median is the panel number used above.
| Outcome | Bid / Ask | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | ChatGPT | Gemini | Kimi | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bailey | 22¢ / 23¢ | 25 | 27 | 24 | 23 | 27 | 29 | 26 |
| Caleb Downs | 16¢ / 17¢ | 14 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 14.5 |
| Anthony Hill Jr. | 2¢ / 3¢ | 13 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
| Josiah Trotter | 3¢ / 4¢ | 10 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 9.5 |
| Jacob Rodriguez | 16¢ / 21¢ | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Sonny Styles | 10¢ / 11¢ | 2 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Mansoor Delane | 3¢ / 4¢ | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| Rueben Bain Jr. | 4¢ / 5¢ | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Arvell Reese | 3¢ / 4¢ | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Akheem Mesidor | 3¢ / 4¢ | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Cashius Howell | 1¢ / 3¢ | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Gabe Jacas | 3¢ / 4¢ | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Dillon Thieneman | 2¢ / 3¢ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Caleb Banks | 0¢ / 2¢ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| The field | 14 contracts | 14 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 8.5 |
- Every number in this piece gets graded in public once the market settles, on the full graded scoreboard.
Sept. 7, Graded
<<<<<<< Updated upstream The Sept. 7 edition of this page ran on prices read Aug. 17, before a snap was played, and its headline call was that a safety should not be the most expensive contract on the board. Downs was 20 cents against a panel at 4.5; Bailey was 17 against 22.2. Both moved the panel's way, Downs to 16 to 17 and Bailey to 22 to 23, and the fades on Arvell Reese (12 cents then, 3 to 4 now) and Akheem Mesidor (9 then, 3 to 4 now) paid as well. The misses were real too. Rueben Bain Jr. was the panel's co-favorite at 16.8 against 17 cents and has fallen to 4 to 5 after one tackle and no sacks in two games, and Jacob Rodriguez, the panel's favorite value at 7.9 against 6 cents, more than tripled to 16 to 21, so the panel is fading him now, not backing him. The quiet win was the field. The August board had no contract for Anthony Hill Jr. or Josiah Trotter, the panel kept 4.4 for an unlisted rookie, and both now hold contracts and two of the panel's four highest numbers.
The Sept. 7 edition of this page ran on prices read Aug. 17, before a snap was played, and its headline call was that a safety should not be the most expensive contract on the board. Downs was 20 cents against a panel at 4.5; Bailey was 17 against 22.2. Both moved the panel's way, Downs to 16 to 17 and Bailey to 22 to 23, and the fades on Arvell Reese (12 cents then, 3 to 4 now) and Akheem Mesidor (9 then, 3 to 4 now) paid as well. The misses were real too. Rueben Bain Jr. was the panel's co-favorite at 16.8 against 17 cents and has fallen to 4 to 5 after one tackle and no sacks in two games, and Jacob Rodriguez, the panel's favorite value at 7.9 against 6 cents, more than tripled to 16 to 21, which is why the panel now sits on the other side of him. The quiet win was the field. The August board had no contract for Anthony Hill Jr. or Josiah Trotter, the panel kept 4.4 for an unlisted rookie, and both now hold contracts and two of the panel's four highest numbers.
Stashed changes
The Wrong Linebacker
Off-ball linebackers have won this award 27 times in 58 years, more than any position, and the last one to do it, Carson Schwesinger in 2025, did it on tackle volume as a second-round pick. So the market is not wrong to have a second-round linebacker second on the board. It has the wrong one.
Rodriguez wears the green dot as Miami's defensive play-caller, led the Dolphins with 14 tackles in his debut and has 22 through two games, with no sacks and no interceptions, on an 0-2 team that has been outscored 62-26. That is a real job and a real start, and every seat priced it the same way: 4, with ChatGPT at 5. Hill has more of everything the tackle path rewards. He set the league record for a rookie debut with 16 tackles against the Jets, was named Tennessee's starting middle linebacker the next week, added 10 against Philadelphia and leads the NFL at 26. The Titans are also 0-2. The price on Hill is 2 to 3 cents; the panel median is 11, and four of six seats have him at 11 or higher.
Josiah Trotter is the third linebacker and the one with the highlight. He became the first rookie with a sack and a pick-six in his debut, added 13 tackles in Week 2 and sits at 24 tackles for an 0-2 Tampa Bay team. His price is 3 to 4 cents; the panel has him at 9.5. Opus, the seat lowest on Hill at 8, explained the cap in its revision note:
Tackle totals from a bad 0-2 defense usually shrink as a season goes on, he has no splash plays yet, and a Titans team without national games gets less attention from voters. <<<<<<< Updated upstream Claude Opus
That logic applies to Rodriguez at seven times the price and with four fewer tackles. The three linebackers total 24.5 on the panel's board, and only 4 of that is Rodriguez, the one priced at 21 cents.
David Bailey: The Lead Grew
In August the case for David Bailey was an archetype: edge rusher, second overall pick, led college football in sacks, Week 1 starter. Two games in, it is a stat line. Bailey has a sack in each game, Cam Ward and then Jordan Love, 11 pressures by Next Gen Stats and a forced fumble, and he is the first player since Joey Bosa in 2016 with five or more pressures in each of his first two career games. Bosa won this award. The Jets are 1-1, a 23-10 win at Tennessee and a 17-20 loss to Green Bay.
The panel median rose from 22.2 to 26, with Kimi at 29 and Opus and Gemini at 27, and the lowest seat, ChatGPT at 23, matches the ask exactly. The price moved from 17 cents to 22 to 23 over the same stretch, so traders caught most of it and the panel still sits 3 above the ask. The one sizing clause: two games is 12 percent of the season, and Sonnet stopped at 24 because sack rate over two games is the noisiest number on this board.
The Safety Problem, Priced
This page was named for the fact that no safety had won the award in 15 years and Caleb Downs was the most expensive contract on the board anyway. Both halves changed. Downs is third now at 16 to 17 cents, and the panel that had him at 4.5 in August has him at 14.5, two and a half cents under the ask. What moved the seats was the box score: 8 tackles, a sack and a forced fumble against the Giants, then 9 tackles, a forced fumble and a pass defended against Washington, plus PFF's post-Week 2 grades naming him the highest-graded first-round pick. Dallas is 1-1. Kimi, the lowest seat at 11, moved up from 9 in its revision because, in its words, "his 2-3 forced fumbles are exactly the splash plays that can overcome the historical safety discount if they continue." ChatGPT, the highest at 16, held because it had already discounted the position and still valued Cowboys visibility. The position tax is still on him. It was 15.5 cents in August; it is 2.5 now.
Sonny Styles is where the old argument still lives in full. The seventh pick has played every snap for Washington since Frankie Luvu's Week 1 groin injury, but the line is 7 tackles and 1 sack, and the Commanders are 0-2. His price has not moved since August, 11 cents then and 10 to 11 now, while the panel median fell from 6 to 4. Draft capital keeps a top-10 pick's floor under him, which is why Opus is the high seat at 6; ChatGPT and Fable have him at 2. He is the second-widest sell on the board after Rodriguez, 7 cents to the ask.
Where The Panel Keeps A Tail
Rueben Bain Jr. was the market's co-favorite in August at 17 cents and NFL.com's preseason No. 1 candidate. He has one tackle, no sacks and two or three pressures in two games, seven rookie edge rushers have more pressures, and Todd Bowles has said he does not think Bain is completely healthy. The price is 4 to 5; the panel is at 3, and nobody on it is buying the rebound yet. The sleepers are the pass rushers with pressures and no sacks: Cashius Howell, tied for the rookie lead with seven pressures for the 2-0 Bengals, at 1 to 3 cents with ChatGPT alone at 6, and Akheem Mesidor, two sacks in Week 2 for the 0-2 Chargers, at 3 to 4 against a panel at 3. Mansoor Delane intercepted the first pass thrown his way and hurt his shoulder on the play; the 2-0 Chiefs give him the Sauce Gardner setup, and at 3 to 4 cents against a panel at 4 he is the one contract the panel and the market price the same.
=======
— Claude Opus
That logic applies to Rodriguez at seven times the price and with four fewer tackles. The panel's linebacker lane totals 24.5 across the three names, and 4 of it sits on the one the market asks 21 cents for.
David Bailey: The Lead Grew
In August the case for David Bailey was an archetype: edge rusher, second overall pick, led college football in sacks, Week 1 starter. Two games in, it is a stat line. Bailey has a sack in each game, Cam Ward and then Jordan Love, 11 pressures by Next Gen Stats and a forced fumble, and he is the first player since Joey Bosa in 2016 with five or more pressures in each of his first two career games. Bosa won this award. The Jets are 1-1, a 23-10 win at Tennessee and a 17-20 loss to Green Bay.
The panel median rose from 22.2 to 26, with Kimi at 29 and Opus and Gemini at 27, and the lowest seat, ChatGPT at 23, matches the ask exactly. The price moved from 17 cents to 22 to 23 over the same stretch, so traders caught most of it and the panel still sits 3 above the ask. The one sizing clause: two games is 12 percent of the season, and Sonnet stopped at 24 because sack rate over two games is the noisiest number on this board.
The Safety Problem, Priced
This page was named for the fact that no safety had won the award in 15 years and Caleb Downs was the most expensive contract on the board anyway. Both halves changed. Downs is third now at 16 to 17 cents, and the panel that had him at 4.5 in August has him at 14.5, two and a half cents under the ask. What moved the seats was the box score: 8 tackles, a sack and a forced fumble against the Giants, then 9 tackles, a forced fumble and a pass defended against Washington, plus PFF's post-Week 2 grades naming him the highest-graded first-round pick. Dallas is 1-1. Kimi, the lowest seat at 11, moved up from 9 in its revision because, in its words, "his 2-3 forced fumbles are exactly the splash plays that can overcome the historical safety discount if they continue." ChatGPT, the highest at 16, held because it had already discounted the position and still valued Cowboys visibility. The position tax is still on him. It was 15.5 cents in August; it is 2.5 now.
Sonny Styles is where the old argument still lives in full. The seventh pick has played every snap for Washington since Frankie Luvu's Week 1 groin injury, but the line is 7 tackles and 1 sack, and the Commanders are 0-2. His price has not moved since August, 11 cents then and 10 to 11 now, while the panel median fell from 6 to 4. Draft capital keeps a top-10 pick's floor under him, which is why Opus is the high seat at 6; ChatGPT and Fable have him at 2. He is the second-widest sell on the board after Rodriguez, 7 cents to the ask.
Where The Panel Keeps A Tail
Rueben Bain Jr. was the market's co-favorite in August at 17 cents and NFL.com's preseason No. 1 candidate. He has one tackle, no sacks and two or three pressures in two games, seven rookie edge rushers have more pressures, and Todd Bowles has said he does not think Bain is completely healthy. The price is 4 to 5; the panel is at 3, and nobody on it is buying the rebound yet. The sleepers are the pass rushers with pressures and no sacks: Cashius Howell, tied for the rookie lead with seven pressures for the 2-0 Bengals, at 1 to 3 cents with ChatGPT alone at 6, and Akheem Mesidor, two sacks in Week 2 for the 0-2 Chargers, at 3 to 4 against a panel at 3. Mansoor Delane intercepted the first pass thrown his way and hurt his shoulder on the play; the 2-0 Chiefs give him the Sauce Gardner setup, and at 3 to 4 cents against a panel at 4 he is the one contract the panel and the market price the same.
Stashed changes The field carries 8.5, more than any single contract below Trotter, and it is the widest disagreement inside the panel: Fable at 14, ChatGPT at 6. Fable's reason for holding is that "two weeks cannot certify that the eventual winner is even on this board." The 14 field contracts ask 1 or 2 cents each, and the group includes edge rushers Keldric Faulk and TJ Parker.
The Market Card
The event is KXNFLDROTY-27 on Kalshi. Each contract reads the same way, with only the name changing: "If Caleb Downs wins the Pro Football AP Defensive Rookie of the Year in the 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes." The board now lists 28 names, six more than in August; the Tie/Co-Winners contract resolves Yes only if the AP formally names co-winners. For the sportsbook-side read on this race, see how to bet NFL on Kalshi.
Panel numbers are estimates. Availability varies by platform and location.
Settlement Timeline
| What | When |
|---|---|
| Regular Season | September 2026 to January 2027 |
| Award Announced | NFL Honors, Super Bowl week, February 2027 |
| Contract Expected Expiration | March 30, 2027 |
This page is re-scored when the story moves. Prices as of September 23, 2026.
The Bottom Line
The market and the panel agree on the favorite and split on the second name. David Bailey at 22 to 23 cents is the top price, and the panel's 26 says he is still cheap after a sack in each game and 11 pressures. Jacob Rodriguez at 16 to 21 is the second price, and the panel has him at 4, level with Sonny Styles and below two linebackers priced at 3 and 4 cents who have more tackles or a pick-six. The safety problem got priced: Caleb Downs is 16 to 17 against a panel at 14.5. The linebacker problem replaced it.
Prices on this page are Kalshi's book. If you also trade on Polymarket, code OS4 gets new users a $50 trading bonus on a $10 deposit — affiliate link; terms as stated by Polymarket; 18+, availability varies by state.
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