Kalshi's Offensive Rookie of the Year market is no longer the board it was three weeks ago. On August 12 the exchange listed four rookies who had not existed as contracts before, all four of them training-camp risers rather than high draft picks. On August 18 the No. 8 overall pick traded at a penny. Both of the board's original favorites have faded. We put the whole rewritten field, 26 rookies and a tie contract with about 982,900 contracts traded, in front of an eight-model AI panel, price-blind, with every rookie's verified draft slot, position room, injury designation and dated camp role fetched the same evening, then ran a revision round where each seat read the others' anonymized reasoning.
The Quick Answer
Eight price-blind AI models make Jadarian Price the 2026 Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite at a 16.5% blend against a 12.5-cent contract — the market's third choice. They fade the market's top two: Jeremiyah Love (16.5 cents, 14.0%) and especially Fernando Mendoza (14.5 cents, 9.0%), the No. 1 overall pick, who is behind a $172 million veteran. Their widest gap is Price, four points clear of his price. Their most striking one is on a contract that did not exist eleven days ago: De'Zhaun Stribling at 8.5 cents against an 11.7% blend. Six of the eight seats rank Price first after reading each other's reasoning.
Prices are Kalshi midpoints captured at 23:38 UTC on August 23, 2026; the panel never saw any of them. At 12.5 cents Price is roughly a +700 sportsbook moneyline, and Love's 16.5 cents is about +506.
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What Changed On This Board
Three things moved, and all three are datable.
Jordyn Tyson stopped being a contender. The Saints' No. 8 overall pick held 13 to 14 cents every day through August 14. He closed at 8 cents on August 15, 7 cents on August 17, and 1 cent on August 18 on 9,586 contracts, five times any previous day's volume on his line. The reason arrived in between: NFL Network's Mike Garafolo and Ian Rapoport reported on Monday, August 17 that Tyson would miss approximately two months with a hamstring injury suffered in practice, after seeking multiple medical opinions. That timeline starts his season in October. For an award whose voters fill out ballots at the end of the regular season based on what they watched, missing the first month-plus is close to disqualifying. He trades at 1.5 cents now.
Kalshi added four new contracts on August 12, and not one of them was a first-round pick. They were De'Zhaun Stribling (49ers, pick 33), Ja'Kobi Lane (Ravens, pick 80), Cyrus Allen (Chiefs, pick 176) and Haynes King (Panthers, undrafted). Every one is a camp story rather than a draft story. Stribling opened at 3 cents on August 13 and reached 16 cents by August 22 before settling back to 8.5. The exchange, in other words, stopped pricing the April draft and started pricing August practice.
Both original favorites drifted down. Love has gone from 20 cents on August 12 to 16.5. Mendoza has gone from 19 cents to 14.5. Neither has been injured out of the race, but both have picked up a specific problem, and the panel found both of them.
The Board
The narrow view, sorted by the panel's number. Full per-seat detail follows.
| Rookie | Draft slot | Kalshi | AI Blend (after revision) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jadarian Price (RB, SEA) | Rd 1, Pk 32 | 12.5¢ | 16.5% |
| Jeremiyah Love (RB, ARI) | Rd 1, Pk 3 | 16.5¢ | 14.0% |
| De'Zhaun Stribling (WR, SF) | Rd 2, Pk 33 | 8.5¢ | 11.7% |
| Carnell Tate (WR, TEN) | Rd 1, Pk 4 | 12.0¢ | 11.0% |
| Fernando Mendoza (QB, LV) | Rd 1, Pk 1 | 14.5¢ | 9.0% |
| Any Unlisted Rookie (The Field) | — | — | 6.0% |
| Cyrus Allen (WR, KC) | Rd 5, Pk 176 | 2.5¢ | 5.0% |
| KC Concepcion (WR, CLE) | Rd 1, Pk 24 | 5.5¢ | 4.0% |
| Ty Simpson (QB, LAR) | Rd 1, Pk 13 | 1.5¢ | 3.7% |
| Makai Lemon (WR, PHI) | Rd 1, Pk 20 | 5.5¢ | 2.5% |
| Omar Cooper Jr. (WR, NYJ) | Rd 1, Pk 30 | 1.5¢ | 2.3% |
| Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, BAL) | Rd 3, Pk 80 | 5.0¢ | 2.2% |
| Jordyn Tyson (WR, NO) | Rd 1, Pk 8 | 1.5¢ | 2.0% |
| Mike Washington Jr. (RB, LV) | Rd 4, Pk 122 | 5.5¢ | 1.5% |
| Denzel Boston (WR, CLE) | Rd 2, Pk 39 | 3.5¢ | 1.0% |
| Zachariah Branch (WR, ATL) | Rd 3, Pk 79 | 1.5¢ | 1.0% |
| Jonah Coleman (RB, DEN) | Rd 4, Pk 108 | 1.5¢ | 1.0% |
| Germie Bernard (WR, PIT) | Rd 2, Pk 47 | 0.5¢ | 1.0% |
| Kenyon Sadiq (TE, NYJ) | Rd 1, Pk 16 | 1.5¢ | 0.9% |
| Carson Beck (QB, ARI) | Rd 3, Pk 65 | 4.5¢ | 0.8% |
| Drew Allar (QB, PIT) | Rd 3, Pk 76 | 1.5¢ | 0.7% |
| Elijah Sarratt (WR, BAL) | Rd 4, Pk 115 | 1.5¢ | 0.5% |
| Eli Stowers (TE, PHI) | Rd 2, Pk 54 | 0.5¢ | 0.3% |
| Chris Bell (WR, MIA) | Rd 3, Pk 94 | 1.5¢ | 0.2% |
| Haynes King (QB, CAR) | Undrafted | 0.5¢ | 0.2% |
| Garrett Nussmeier (QB, KC) | Rd 7, Pk 249 | 0.5¢ | 0.2% |
| Chris Brazzell II (WR, CAR) | Rd 3, Pk 83 | 0.5¢ | 0.1% |
Blend is the seat median of eight models' revised estimates. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. The Tie/Co-Winners contract (0.5¢) sits outside the panel's partition.
More live boards from the same panel: NFL MVP 2027 — Josh Allen leads at 11¢ · Defensive Rookie of the Year — Rueben Bain Jr. 19¢, David Bailey 17¢ · every NFL award race in one hub. Prices fetched August 23, 2026.
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Every Seat's Number
The per-model split after the revision round, for the top of the board. On a phone this table scrolls sideways; the board above carries the headline numbers.
| Rookie | ChatGPT | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | Gemini 3.1 Pro | GLM 5.2 | Kimi K3 | DeepSeek V4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jadarian Price | 15.0 | 16.9 | 14.5 | 15.5 | 17.5 | 17.0 | 16.0 | 16.9 |
| Jeremiyah Love | 13.0 | 13.9 | 16.0 | 17.5 | 12.5 | 14.5 | 14.0 | 13.5 |
| De'Zhaun Stribling | 12.3 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 13.0 | 11.5 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 11.0 |
| Carnell Tate | 10.5 | 11.0 | 18.0 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 10.5 |
| Fernando Mendoza | 8.0 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 9.0 |
| Any Unlisted Rookie | 6.0 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 7.5 |
| Cyrus Allen | 5.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: Claude Fable 82% on 616 graded calls · Claude Opus 83% on 686 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 81% on 664 graded calls · GPT 84% on 5,836 graded calls · Gemini 86% on 4,570 graded calls · GLM 81% on 2,465 graded calls · Kimi 82% on 2,442 graded calls · DeepSeek 80% on 2,490 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
Model estimates generated August 23, 2026, price-blind from live fetched data. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange; 18+, availability varies by state.
Every number in this piece lands in our backtest ledger the day it is generated and gets graded against the AP's real announcement on the public model verdict scoreboard.
Jadarian Price, Seattle Seahawks: The Panel's Favorite
Price is the 32nd pick, the last one of the first round, and he is the panel's top contract on six of eight seats. The case is not about talent. It is about a vacancy with a rulebook attached.
Start with who is not in the Seattle backfield. Kenneth Walker III, the Super Bowl LX MVP, left in free agency for Kansas City on a three-year deal worth up to $45 million after the Seahawks declined to franchise him. That left Zach Charbonnet as the incumbent, and Seattle placed Charbonnet on the physically-unable-to-perform list before camp, where he is working back from an ACL tear suffered in January's Divisional Round win over San Francisco, with surgery in February.
Charbonnet is the player Price would have to beat: last season he ran for 730 yards on 184 carries and led the team with 12 rushing touchdowns, the first Seahawk with double-digit rushing scores since Marshawn Lynch in 2014. The rule the panel kept citing is the one that gives the vacancy a floor. A player still on PUP when rosters cut to 53 must miss a minimum of four games. So the defending champions open the season on Wednesday, September 9 against New England having lost their Super Bowl MVP to free agency, with their remaining starter rehabbing a January ACL, and a first-round rookie behind them.
"Price is a first-round RB whose incumbent tore an ACL in January … the exact injury-inheritance cause the card demands for non-top-10 winners." (Kimi K3)
That phrase, injury-inheritance, is doing specific work. Seven winners since 2000 were drafted outside the first round: Mike Anderson at 189, Dak Prescott at 135, Alvin Kamara at 67, Eddie Lacy at 61, Anquan Boldin at 54, Clinton Portis at 51 and Anthony Thomas at 38. All seven are pre-2018, and the pattern the panel was asked to test is that each one arrived at a full-time role early rather than out-producing a healthy starter. For Price, that opening is present in writing.
Price himself missed part of camp with upper-leg soreness and has been back for the past week. Quarterback Sam Darnold called him "a special player" after the joint practice with Tennessee, where he showed an over-the-shoulder catch for a long gain and a long run. He is listed Active.
De'Zhaun Stribling, San Francisco 49ers: The Contract That Didn't Exist
Eleven days ago you could not buy this. Stribling is 11.7% against 8.5 cents, the panel's second-widest premium behind Price, and the reason is the same mechanism as Price's at a different position.
San Francisco general manager John Lynch announced that Ricky Pearsall will miss the entire 2026 season after knee surgery on a PCL injury dating to last season. Christian Kirk has been banged up. Stribling has caught 11 of 13 targets for 109 yards across two exhibition games and has become one of Brock Purdy's most reliable targets in camp. He picked up a shoulder injury in the 41-17 preseason win over the Chargers, was listed day-to-day, and returned to practice on Sunday, August 23 in a no-contact jersey.
Seven of the eight seats put him above his price. The dissent is worth more than the consensus, because it is the only seat that read the room list instead of the headline:
"I also cut Stribling to 8.5, below every forecaster, on a card fact none of them cited: San Francisco's listed WR room is Mike Evans, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and Demarcus Robinson. Pearsall's absence promotes a second-rounder into a crowded veteran room, not into a target monopoly." (Claude Opus)
That roster is real — all four are on San Francisco's active receiver group, and the 49ers signed Deebo Samuel for a second stint specifically to cover the Pearsall loss. Opus's point is the strongest argument against the panel's own third-place contract, and it is the difference between a vacancy and a promotion.
Fernando Mendoza, Las Vegas Raiders: From Favorite To Fade
The No. 1 overall pick is the panel's biggest fade on the board: 9.0% against 14.5 cents. Every seat landed between 8 and 11.
Las Vegas signed Kirk Cousins to a five-year, $172 million contract this offseason, and head coach Klint Kubiak has said publicly that it is Cousins' job to lose. Mendoza has taken real first-team reps in joint practices with Houston, but his preseason work included a pick-six and Kubiak said afterwards the rookie still has a lot to work on. The Raiders open September 13 against Miami.
Quarterbacks have won 10 of the last 20 of these awards, which is why nobody zeroed him out. But every one of those quarterbacks started early. What the panel is pricing is not Mendoza's ability; it is the number of games he is likely to have.
"Mendoza is priced as a midseason-takeover story only." (Claude Fable)
Ty Simpson, the No. 13 pick, is the same structure at a tenth of the price: the panel puts him at 3.7% against 1.5 cents, behind Matthew Stafford in Los Angeles. Both contracts depend on the same thing happening, a veteran starter losing the job, and the panel's numbers imply the market has priced that possibility very differently in the two places.
Where The Panel Changed Its Mind
After round one, each seat read the other seven's anonymized numbers and reasoning and could revise with a stated reason. Five of the eight seats raised their Price number, two of them by more than six points.
Fable came in with Price at 10.0 and left at 16.9, the biggest move any seat made toward him:
"That leaves Jadarian Price as the cleanest profile on the board: first-round RB, active as of 8/23, the incumbent coming off a January ACL with a four-game PUP minimum if he is still on the list at cutdowns, and RB is the modal winning position all-time." (Claude Fable, raising Price from 10.0 to 16.9)
Gemini moved the other way on Love, cutting him from 20.0 to 12.5, the largest single reduction of the round, after the group's reading of Arizona's backfield:
"Jeremiyah Love (#3) suffered a high ankle sprain entering a crowded backfield." (Gemini 3.1 Pro, cutting Love from 20.0 to 12.5)
And one seat refused to move where everyone else had. Opus finished with Carnell Tate at 18.0, higher than any other seat put any player, and said exactly why:
"That leaves Tate as my leader at 18, which is where I most disagree with the group, all of whom had him third or fourth. The evidence against Tate is the weakest on the board: one quiet joint practice, zero catches on three targets in an exhibition, and 'stiffness' he already practiced through. Against that, he is a #4 pick, healthy, starting, in a room whose other members are Wan'Dale Robinson, Chimere Dike, Elic Ayomanor and K.J. Osborn — no alpha." (Claude Opus)
That is the honest split on this board. Six seats think the top-10 picks are compromised enough to reach past them for a running back drafted 32nd. Opus thinks the evidence against the healthiest top-10 pick is thin camp noise, and Sonnet still has Love first.
Who Isn't On This Board
Worth knowing before you weigh the field: Kalshi's board is mutually exclusive but not exhaustive, and there is no field contract to trade, so if an unlisted rookie wins, every contract here settles No.
The 2026 draft ran 257 picks, 81 of them offensive skill players, the only positions that have ever won this award. Twenty-five of those 81 have contracts here. But the ones missing start much lower than you would guess. Every single offensive skill player drafted in the first round has a contract on this board. The six top-10 picks Kalshi did not list are David Bailey (edge), Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles (linebackers), Mansoor Delane (cornerback), and Spencer Fano and Francis Mauigoa (offensive tackles), none of them eligible for an offensive award in any realistic sense. No defender or offensive lineman has ever won it.
The highest-drafted offensive skill player without a contract is Nate Boerkircher, a tight end taken 56th by Jacksonville. Behind him: three more tight ends, then Day-3 receivers. A tight end has won this award exactly once in 69 years, and that was Mike Ditka in 1961.
So the field is real but small, and the panel priced it that way at 6.0%. It is the Day-2-and-later tail, the Dak Prescott and Alvin Kamara path, and it runs entirely through somebody ahead of them getting hurt in September.
Dark Horses The Panel Won't Dismiss
- Cyrus Allen, Kansas City Chiefs (2.5¢, Blend 5.0%): the panel's cleanest double, and a fifth-round pick. Within three days of camp he had earned first-team reps with Patrick Mahomes, and Andy Reid says he has earned Mahomes' trust. Sonnet put him above healthy first-rounders on the logic that "first-team Mahomes reps within three days is a stronger signal than buried WR3/4 status on a crowded first-round pedigree."
- Ty Simpson, Los Angeles Rams (1.5¢, Blend 3.7%): the cheapest quarterback-inheritance ticket on the board, sitting behind Matthew Stafford.
- Omar Cooper Jr., New York Jets (1.5¢, Blend 2.3%): a first-round receiver at 30th overall priced like a seventh-rounder, though he shares a room with Garrett Wilson.
- Jordyn Tyson, New Orleans (1.5¢, Blend 2.0%): the panel is fractionally above the market on the rookie the market just abandoned. A two-month absence is not a season-ending one, and an October start with Chris Olave drawing coverage is not nothing. This is a disagreement measured in half-cents, not a call to buy.
What Would Change The Panel's Mind
Four checkable events, each with the direction it pushes:
- Seattle's cut to 53 players, due before the September opener. If Charbonnet stays on PUP, the four-game minimum becomes fact and Price's number goes up. If Charbonnet is activated to the 53, the panel's favorite loses the exact mechanism it was built on and Price should fall below Love.
- Las Vegas naming a Week 1 starter before September 13 against Miami. Cousins confirmed pushes Mendoza further down and makes his contract a midseason-takeover option. Mendoza named starter would move him from 9% back toward the market's 14.5 cents and above.
- Arizona's Week 1 injury report on Jeremiyah Love's high ankle sprain. Cleared and carrying a full workload restores the 23-snap, 14-touch usage the panel read as organizational intent. Any listed limitation, or a snap split with James Conner, caps him where the ankle already has.
- San Francisco's Week 1 target distribution. Stribling running as a genuine starter with Purdy validates the panel's premium; Stribling behind Mike Evans, Aiyuk and Samuel in the rotation validates Opus's dissent and the 8.5-cent price.
Settlement Timeline
| What | When |
|---|---|
| NFL Regular Season Opens: Seattle Hosts New England (A Wednesday — The Thursday Slot Belongs To A Game In Australia) | September 9, 2026 |
| Raiders Open Vs. Miami | September 13, 2026 |
| Earliest Jordyn Tyson Return (Two-Month Prognosis) | October 2026 |
| AP Ballots Cast (End Of Regular Season, Before Playoffs) | January 2027 |
| Award Announced At NFL Honors | February 2027 |
| Kalshi Contract Expiration | March 30, 2027 |
This page is re-scored when the story moves: a starter named, a designation changed, a contract added. Prices and panel numbers as of August 23, 2026.
How To Read These Prices
- Eligibility. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, not a sportsbook. 18+, and availability varies by state as of August 2026.
- The Overround. The 26 named midpoints sum to about 112 cents, normal inflation for a two-sided book with a long tail. Re-scaled against that sum, Price's 12.5 cents is closer to an 11.2% implied probability, which makes the panel's 16.5% a wider disagreement than the raw cents suggest.
- Liquidity. About 982,900 contracts have traded across the event, concentrated at the top. Mike Washington Jr. quotes 3 cents bid against 8 cents asked: a five-cent spread on a contract that traded roughly 49,600 times in the last day, which is a thin book absorbing a burst of interest, not a settled price. Treat the wide-spread tail accordingly.
- Time. This market can run to its March 30, 2027 expiration; capital is committed through NFL Honors.
- Not Advice. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
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The Bottom Line
The market is still pricing April. The panel is pricing August. Kalshi's top two contracts are the No. 1 and No. 3 overall picks, and both have a specific, documented reason they may not be full-time players in September: a $172 million veteran in one case, a high ankle sprain in the other. Meanwhile the exchange's own August 12 additions tell you the exchange knows this: it listed four camp risers, including a second-round receiver who is now the panel's third-favorite contract.
What the eight models converged on is not a hot take about talent. It is a rule about this award: it is voted at the end of the regular season by people who watched games, and it goes to rookies who play from Week 1. The board's cleanest Week 1 role belongs to a running back drafted 32nd whose incumbent is on the PUP list, and he costs 12.5 cents. When the AP announces the award at NFL Honors, every number above gets graded in public, next to the same panel's boards for the NFL MVP field and the full Kalshi NFL awards hub.
