Fifteen MLB games carry a first-inning market on Tuesday, August 25. Walbert Ureña has opened clean in 10 straight starts; George Kirby has leaked nine first-inning runs in ten starts; and the quietest matchup on the board, Skenes against King at Petco, carries its loudest price. Three trends below, quiet side first; the widest gap comes last.
The Quick Answer
Tuesday's three biggest first-inning edges all sit on the runs side: Pirates-Padres YRFI +144 (true +133, +4.9%), Guardians-Angels +150 (true +141, +3.6%), Phillies-Mariners +113 (true +109, +2.0%). The best NRFI edge is Astros-Yankees +113 (+1.7%). The trends behind those prices, and the full 15-game board, are below.
Ureña Has Opened Clean In 10 Straight Starts
Guardians At Angels: Williams Vs. Ureña, NRFI -145
Walbert Ureña brings one of Tuesday's cleanest first innings: zero first-inning runs in his last 10 starts. Gavin Williams nearly matches him at 9 of 10, and Cleveland's 42% team YRFI rate is the board's second-quietest. The venue pushes back: Angel Stadium plays to 53%, the Angels to 51%, both above the 50.5% league rate. Still, NRFI -145 gives back -1.1% against a true -141, while the same devig makes YRFI +150 the board's second-biggest edge at +3.6%.
The trend read: the streak is fully paid for; the value math points at the +150, not the quiet.
Seattle Has A First-Inning Run In 12 Of Its Last 15
Phillies At Mariners: Nola Vs. Kirby, YRFI +113
Seattle sat at 11 of 15 on Monday's board; last night made it 12 of the last 15. George Kirby's line is the loudest part: nine first-inning runs allowed in his last ten starts, clean in just six, and Aaron Nola matches that six-of-ten, five runs to Kirby's nine. T-Mobile Park has a pitcher-friendly reputation, but it plays to a 56% YRFI rate this season, above the 50.5% league mark. Of Tuesday's three biggest edges, this is the only one where trend and price point the same way: YRFI +113 beats its true +109 by +2.0%.
The trend read: the loud open is still paid above fair here; no argument between the trend and the price.
The Quietest Matchup Carries The Board's Widest Price Gap
Pirates At Padres: Skenes Vs. King, YRFI +144
Here is the promised gap. On paper this is the night's surest quiet first: Paul Skenes and Michael King have combined for 16 clean firsts in their last 20 starts, King on five straight, San Diego's 39% team rate is the board's lowest, and Petco plays to 42%. Yet the books charge only -135 for all of that, a true -133 by the devig, leaving the runs side at +144 against a true +133. Same story as Ureña in Anaheim, one edge wider, and the number I keep coming back to: at +4.9%, Tuesday's biggest gap over fair. Pittsburgh has a first-inning run in 8 of its last 15.
The trend read: the trend says quiet; the price says the quiet costs too much at -135.
Tuesday's Full First-Inning Board
Clean firsts = last 10 starts (or fewer, as shown); team/park rates = season YRFI; times ET; prices from the first-inning Odds Screen.
| Game (First Pitch ET) | Starters (clean firsts, last 10 or fewer) | Team YRFI rates | Park YRFI | Prices |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays At Tigers (6:40) | Seymour 8/10 · Jobe 1/3 | 48% / 49% | Comerica 41% | NRFI -113 · YRFI +105 |
| Red Sox At Marlins (6:40) | Tolle 6/10 · MIA TBD | 53% / 43% | loanDepot 43% | NRFI -128 · YRFI +123 |
| Rockies At Nationals (6:45) | COL TBD · Alvarez 10/10 | 63% / 52% | Nationals Park 53% | NRFI -110 · YRFI +100 |
| Astros At Yankees (7:05) | Pecko 1/1 · Warren 5/10 | 57% / 49% | Yankee Stadium 51% | NRFI +113 · YRFI -117 |
| Royals At Blue Jays (7:07) | Lugo 6/10 · Scherzer 4/10 | 50% / 48% | Rogers Centre 50% | NRFI -106 · YRFI -105 |
| Brewers At Mets (7:10) | Harrison 8/10 · Thornton 4/9 | 47% / 49% | Citi Field 49% | NRFI -125 · YRFI +120 |
| Dodgers At Braves (7:15) | Glasnow 5/7 · Elder 8/10 | 50% / 49% | Truist 46% | NRFI +100 · YRFI -102 |
| Rangers At White Sox (7:40) | deGrom 6/10 · Kay 8/10 | 60% / 55% | Rate Field 52% | NRFI -122 · YRFI +120 |
| Orioles At Cardinals (7:45) | Bassitt 7/10 · STL TBD | 44% / 47% | Busch 42% | NRFI -107 · YRFI -104 |
| Guardians At Angels (9:38) | Williams 9/10 · Ureña 10/10 | 42% / 51% | Angel Stadium 53% | NRFI -145 · YRFI +150 |
| Cubs At D-Backs (9:40) | Holmes 2/3 · Pfaadt 8/10 | 46% / 56% | Chase 57% | NRFI -114 · YRFI +106 |
| Pirates At Padres (9:40) | Skenes 8/10 · King 8/10 | 48% / 39% | Petco 42% | NRFI -135 · YRFI +144 |
| Twins At Athletics (9:40) | Bradley 5/10 · Jump 6/10 | 58% / 55% | Sutter Health 57% | NRFI +105 · YRFI -117 |
| Phillies At Mariners (9:40) | Nola 6/10 · Kirby 6/10 | 53% / 55% | T-Mobile 56% | NRFI -113 · YRFI +113 |
| Reds At Giants (9:45) | Singer 8/10 · Houser 4/10 | 51% / 47% | Oracle 38% | NRFI -114 · YRFI -102 |
The row worth a second look is Astros-Yankees: New York has a first-inning run in just 3 of its last 15, and NRFI +113 against a true +109 is the board's best NRFI edge, with the caveat that Will Warren has allowed seven first-inning runs over his last ten starts. The first-inning Odds Screen shows which book beats the consensus, the full live odds screen shops the rest of the board across every major book, and the free bet converter turns stray promos into cash.
OddsShopper devigs every book's first-inning price to its true number. Code NRFI takes 20% off your first month of OddsShopper Pro.
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The Fine Print
Clean firsts are scoreless first innings; a team or park YRFI rate is the share of its 2026 games with a first-inning run by either side (league: 50.5%). Trends describe what has happened; prices move until first pitch. MLB betting terms, the NRFI hub and free expert picks cover the rest. 21+ where legal; bet within your means.
