Ten MLB games carry a first-inning market on Monday, August 24. Sandy Alcantara has not allowed a first-inning run since June 17, Braxton Ashcraft has allowed nine first-inning runs in his last ten starts, and Seattle has a first-inning run in 11 of its last 15. Three first-inning trends below, quiet side first; every price beating fair sits on the runs side.
The Quick Answer
Monday's only positive first-inning edges are YRFIs: Pirates-Padres +127 (true +120, +3.4%), Phillies-Mariners +150 (+2.1%), Red Sox-Marlins +129 (+0.4%). No NRFI beats fair. The three trends, and the full 10-game board, are below.
Alcantara Has Not Allowed A First-Inning Run Since June 17
Red Sox At Marlins: Suárez Vs. Alcantara, NRFI -130
Sandy Alcantara owns Monday's cleanest first inning: 11 straight scoreless firsts since June 17. Miami cooperates: a first-inning run in 44% of Marlins games this season, just 5 of the last 15, in a 44% park, all under the 50.5% league rate. Ranger Suárez adds 8 clean firsts in 10. The books priced it: NRFI -130 vs a true -128 gives back -0.6%; the thin edge hides at YRFI +129 (+0.4%).
The trend read: the streak is fully paid for; the sliver of value points at the runs.
Ashcraft Has Allowed Nine First-Inning Runs In Ten Starts
Pirates At Padres: Ashcraft Vs. Ray, YRFI +127
The market charges Alcantara's first inning -130 in Miami; here it pays +127 for the opposite story. Braxton Ashcraft opened the year with 12 straight scoreless firsts; since June 24, nine first-inning runs and clean opens in just 5 of 10. Pittsburgh has a first-inning run in 9 of its last 15. Petco Park (42%), the board's quietest team (San Diego, 40%) and Robbie Ray's 3 clean firsts in 4 starts push back, yet the consensus still devigs YRFI to +120. At +127, that is a +3.4% edge, the number I keep coming back to.
The trend read: the board's best price backs the leak, not the park.
Seattle Has A First-Inning Run In 11 Of Its Last 15 Games
Phillies At Mariners: Wheeler Vs. Gilbert, YRFI +150
Zack Wheeler against Logan Gilbert reads like an automatic NRFI, which is why the price is interesting. Wheeler has opened clean in 9 of his last 10, Gilbert in 8 of 10, yet Seattle keeps opening loud anyway: 11 of the last 15, in a 55% park. Same shape as Miami, only louder. NRFI -152 concedes -1.9% against a true -145; YRFI +150 beats its true +145 by +2.1%.
The trend read: two front-line starters, one loud home trend, and the price pays the trend.
Monday's Full First-Inning Board
Clean firsts = last 10 starts; team/park rates = season YRFI; times ET.
| Game (First Pitch ET) | Starters (clean firsts, last 10 or fewer) | Team YRFI rates | Park YRFI | Prices |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays At Tigers (6:40) | Rasmussen 9/10 · Valdez 7/10 | 48% / 49% | Comerica 40% | NRFI -115 · YRFI +112 |
| Red Sox At Marlins (6:40) | Suárez 8/10 · Alcantara 10/10 | 53% / 44% | loanDepot 44% | NRFI -130 · YRFI +129 |
| Rockies At Nationals (6:45) | Feltner 6/10 · Cavalli 9/10 | 64% / 52% | Nationals Park 54% | NRFI -114 · YRFI +100 |
| Rangers At White Sox (7:40) | Rocker 6/10 · CWS TBD | 60% / 55% | Rate Field 51% | NRFI +100 · YRFI -105 |
| Guardians At Angels (9:38) | Messick 8/10 · Klassen 4/5 | 43% / 51% | Angel Stadium 54% | NRFI -120 · YRFI +108 |
| Cubs At D-Backs (9:40) | Gausman 3/4 · Kelly 7/10 | 47% / 57% | Chase 58% | NRFI +106 · YRFI -113 |
| Pirates At Padres (9:40) | Ashcraft 5/10 · Ray 3/4 | 49% / 40% | Petco 42% | NRFI -125 · YRFI +127 |
| Twins At Athletics (9:40) | Matthews 5/10 · Springs 5/10 | 58% / 54% | Sutter Health 56% | NRFI +126 · YRFI -139 |
| Phillies At Mariners (9:40) | Wheeler 9/10 · Gilbert 8/10 | 53% / 54% | T-Mobile 55% | NRFI -152 · YRFI +150 |
| Reds At Giants (9:45) | Burns 9/10 · SF TBD | 50% / 47% | Oracle 37% | NRFI -132 · YRFI +122 |
The row to skip is Rockies-Nationals: Colorado runs a board-high 64%, yet YRFI +100 against a true +109 gives back -4.5%, the board's widest. As on Sunday's board, the first-inning Odds Screen shows which book beats the consensus, the full live odds screen shops the rest of the board across every major book, and the free bet converter turns stray promos into cash.
OddsShopper devigs every book's first-inning price to its true number. Code NRFI takes 20% off your first month of OddsShopper Pro.
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The Fine Print
Clean firsts are scoreless first innings; a team or park YRFI rate is the share of its 2026 games with a first-inning run by either side (league: 50.5%). Trends describe what has happened; prices move until first pitch. MLB betting terms, the NRFI hub and free expert picks cover the rest. 21+ where legal; bet within your means.
