Fifteen MLB games carry a first-inning market Friday, September 11, and it reads backwards: two of its three best runs-side prices sit behind quiet arms. Drew Rasmussen has not allowed a first-inning run since July 4; Washington has seen one in three of its last 15; Max Scherzer has allowed 12 in 10 starts.
The Quick Answer
The three best prices are all runs-side: Angels-Nationals YRFI +125 (3.9%), Orioles-Blue Jays +115 (1.7%) and Astros-Rays +111 (1.4%). Only one has a trend pointing the same way. Quiet side first.
Rasmussen Has Not Allowed A First-Inning Run Since July 4
Astros At Rays: Ullola Vs. Rasmussen, NRFI -113 / YRFI +111
Ten starts, ten clean first innings — the board's only perfect last-10 and longest streak. Tampa Bay has seen one in five of its last 15 at a 49% Tropicana Field. Across from him, Miguel Ullola makes his first big-league start after five relief outings; Houston has scored first in five of 15.
The trend read: the board's quietest arm, and NRFI -113 already 2.1% through fair.
Washington Has Seen A First-Inning Run In 3 Of Its Last 15
Angels At Nationals: Kikuchi Vs. Cavalli, NRFI -124 / YRFI +125
The fewest on the board, and the arms mostly match. Cade Cavalli is clean in nine of his last 10 Nationals starts, the miss two runs last time out; Yusei Kikuchi in eight of 10, all three since returning August 23. Washington has scored first once in 15, in a 48% park.
The trend read: the trends argue NRFI, but -124 is 2.8% through fair; the 3.9% is on the other side.
Scherzer Has Allowed A First-Inning Run In 4 Of His Last 5
Orioles At Blue Jays: Bassitt Vs. Scherzer, NRFI -112 / YRFI +115
Twelve first-inning runs across his last 10 Toronto starts, a board high tied with Framber Valdez — five in the April 24 outing that opens the window. Toronto has allowed one in 31% of its games and seen one in nine of its last 15, at a 51% Rogers Centre. Chris Bassitt counters at seven of 10 clean.
The trend read: the one I keep coming back to — the only top-three price its trend supports.
True prices come from OS Pro's no-vig pricing; the first-inning Odds Screen carries all 30 sides; the live odds screen — shop the number across every major book covers the rest. Nine beat fair Friday. Code NRFI takes 20% off OS Pro.
More on this: NRFI Picks Today: Only 1 of 15 Games Has Value · MLB Hit Props Today · MLB Strikeout Props Today · MLB Total Bases Props Today · MLB Picks Hub: Today's Live Boards and Series
Friday's Full First-Inning Board
| Game (ET) | NRFI / YRFI | Away SP (clean 1st) | Home SP (clean 1st) | Team YRFI (Away / Home) | Park YRFI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates At Cubs (2:20) | -106 / +102 | Wilber Dotel (†) | Shota Imanaga (7/10) | 47% / 46% | Wrigley 56% |
| Rockies At Tigers (6:40) | -109 / +108 | Mason Adams (3/3*) | Framber Valdez (6/10) | 60% / 49% | Comerica 40% |
| Angels At Nationals (6:45) | -124 / +125 | Yusei Kikuchi (8/10) | Cade Cavalli (9/10) | 49% / 49% | Nationals Park 48% |
| Mets At Yankees (7:05) | -114 / +111 | Nolan McLean (7/10) | Carlos Rodón (7/10) | 50% / 48% | Yankee Stadium 49% |
| Orioles At Blue Jays (7:07) | -112 / +115 | Chris Bassitt (7/10) | Max Scherzer (4/10) | 44% / 49% | Rogers Centre 51% |
| Royals At Red Sox (7:10) | -104 / +100 | Seth Lugo (5/10) | Sonny Gray (9/10) | 50% / 52% | Fenway 53% |
| Astros At Rays (7:10) | -113 / +111 | Miguel Ullola (†) | Drew Rasmussen (10/10) | 54% / 47% | Tropicana 49% |
| Dodgers At Marlins (7:10) | -129 / +127 | TBD | Ryan Gusto (8/10) | 50% / 42% | loanDepot 43% |
| Phillies At Braves (7:15) | -125 / +122 | Aaron Nola (7/10) | Chris Sale (9/10) | 52% / 48% | Truist 47% |
| Reds At Brewers (7:45) | -109 / +107 | Andrew Abbott (6/10) | Dustin May (6/8*) | 53% / 50% | American Family 55% |
| Guardians At Twins (8:10) | -133 / +122 | Parker Messick (7/10) | Taj Bradley (5/10) | 44% / 60% | Target Field 52% |
| White Sox At Cardinals (8:15) | -108 / +106 | Anthony Kay (9/10) | Matthew Liberatore (7/10) | 55% / 48% | Busch 42% |
| Mariners At Athletics (9:40) | +122 / -127 | George Kirby (6/10) | Jeffrey Springs (5/10) | 54% / 53% | Sutter Health 55% |
| Rangers At D-Backs (9:40) | +100 / -106 | TBD | TBD | 59% / 54% | Chase 54% |
| Padres At Giants (10:15) | -125 / +114 | Robbie Ray (6/7*) | Anthony Molina (1/2*) | 39% / 51% | Oracle 43% |
Rate stats: clean first = no first-inning run allowed, last 10 starts with the club (*fewer than 10; †no 2026 starts, relief only); team/park YRFI = share of 2026 games with a first-inning run by either side (league 50%). Trends describe the past; prices move by first pitch. Two games still list TBD starters. 21+ where legal.
