Fifteen MLB games carry a first-inning market Wednesday, September 16. Two of the board's three best edges have a trend behind them; the third argues with its price. Cristian Javier has not allowed a first-inning run since April 8. Coors pays plus money on the NRFI side. Zebby Matthews has allowed a first-inning run in six of his last ten, yet the price leans Yankees-Twins NRFI.
The Quick Answer
Six of the 30 sides beat fair Wednesday. Royals-Astros NRFI +108 (0.8%), Padres-Rockies NRFI +128 (1.8%) and Yankees-Twins NRFI -111 (1.8%) get sections below. The lone runs side over fair, Phillies-Nationals YRFI +105 (0.8%), rides Jared Simpson's first MLB start; I pass.
Javier Has Not Allowed A First-Inning Run Since April 8
Royals At Astros (8:10 ET): Lynch IV Vs. Javier, NRFI +108 / YRFI -114
Seven straight clean firsts since his July return, nine of ten, from a 5.50-ERA arm. Daniel Lynch IV is the leak: four clean in seven starts this season, one a four-run first on September 4.
The trend read: NRFI +108, a +106 fair. The price charges for Lynch's September 4, nothing for Javier, and Houston games have a first-inning run in six of their last 15.
Coors Pays Plus Money On The NRFI Side
Padres At Rockies (8:40 ET): Ray Vs. Adams, NRFI +128 / YRFI -130
Coors runs a 69.9% first-inning rate, yet NRFI pays +128 against a true +124 that knocks the park to 55%. The case: San Diego's 41% season rate, the board's lowest, Mason Adams' four for four since his August 25 debut, and Robbie Ray's six of seven as a Padre. But San Diego has scored in the first in seven of its last 15.
The trend read: tied for the board's best edge; the Coors number I would take.
Matthews Has Allowed A First-Inning Run In 6 Of His Last 10
Yankees At Twins (1:40 ET): Rodón Vs. Matthews, NRFI -111 / YRFI +108
Nine first-inning runs allowed in his last ten starts; Minnesota games see a first-inning run at a 60% clip, behind only Colorado, ten of its last 15. Rodón is the other half, clean in eight of ten.
The trend read: NRFI -111. The -115 fair leans quiet despite Matthews, and Yankees games have a first-inning run in eight of their last 15; YRFI +108 misses fair by 3.4%.
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More on this: NRFI Picks Today: Only 1 of 15 Games Has Value · MLB Picks Hub: Today's Live Boards and Series · MLB Hit Props Today · MLB Strikeout Props Today · MLB Total Bases Props Today
Wednesday's Full First-Inning Board
| Game (ET) | NRFI / YRFI | Away SP (clean 1st) | Home SP (clean 1st) | Team YRFI (Away / Home) | Park YRFI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White Sox At Guardians (1:10) | -127 / +120 | Anthony Kay (8/10) | Parker Messick (7/10) | 54% / 44% | Progressive 46% |
| Giants At Cardinals (1:15) | -110 / +106 | Anthony Molina (2/3*) | Matthew Liberatore (6/10) | 52% / 48% | Busch 42% |
| Yankees At Twins (1:40) | -111 / +108 | Carlos Rodón (8/10) | Zebby Matthews (4/10) | 49% / 60% | Target Field 51% |
| Tigers At Blue Jays (3:07) | -108 / -105 | Keider Montero (6/10) | Max Scherzer (4/10) | 49% / 49% | Rogers Centre 52% |
| Dodgers At Reds (6:40) | -113 / +108 | Blake Snell (6/7*) | Andrew Abbott (6/10) | 49% / 53% | Great American 47% |
| Athletics At Rays (6:40) | -111 / +101 | Brady Basso (3/5*) | Nick Martinez (8/10) | 54% / 47% | Tropicana 49% |
| Brewers At Pirates (6:40) | -129 / +120 | Logan Henderson (9/10) | Jared Jones (9/10) | 50% / 48% | PNC 49% |
| Phillies At Nationals (6:45) | -108 / +105 | Zack Wheeler (7/10) | Jared Simpson (first MLB start) | 53% / 49% | Nationals Park 49% |
| Orioles At Mets (7:10) | +104 / -108 | Chris Bassitt (7/10) | Robert Stock (6/7*) | 45% / 51% | Citi Field 50% |
| Braves At Cubs (7:40) | -113 / +108 | JR Ritchie (6/8*) | Shota Imanaga (6/10) | 49% / 47% | Wrigley 56% |
| Red Sox At Rangers (8:05) | -116 / +112 | Jake Bennett (8/10) | MacKenzie Gore (8/10) | 51% / 58% | Globe Life 60% |
| Royals At Astros (8:10) | +108 / -114 | Daniel Lynch IV (4/7*) | Cristian Javier (9/10) | 50% / 54% | Daikin Park 51% |
| Padres At Rockies (8:40) | +128 / -130 | Robbie Ray (6/7*) | Mason Adams (4/4*) | 41% / 60% | Coors 70% |
| Mariners At Angels (9:38) | -115 / +113 | George Kirby (5/10) | Yusei Kikuchi (9/10) | 55% / 50% | Angel Stadium 54% |
| Marlins At Diamondbacks (9:40) | -102 / -114 | Ryan Gusto (9/10) | Merrill Kelly (9/10) | 42% / 53% | Chase 53% |
Rate stats: bold = over fair; clean first = no first-inning run allowed, last 10 club starts (*fewer); team/park YRFI = games with a first-inning run by either side (league 50%). Trends describe the past; prices move by first pitch. 21+ where legal.