Fifteen MLB games carry a first-inning market Tuesday, September 8. Sandy Alcantara has not allowed a first-inning run since June 17, Jack Perkins has allowed 14 first-inning runs in his last 10, and both sides of the Rays-Braves first beat fair.
The Quick Answer
Tuesday's three biggest edges: Rays-Braves YRFI +100 (true -106, 2.8% edge), Blue Jays-Athletics YRFI +100 (true -106, 2.7%) and Rays-Braves NRFI +111 (true +106, 2.6%). Each trend is below.
Alcantara Has Not Allowed A First-Inning Run Since June 17
Mets At Marlins: Manaea Vs. Alcantara, NRFI -110
Alcantara has opened clean in 14 straight, but the streak is as much address as arm: a 43% park and a Marlins staff that has allowed a first-inning run in 25.5% of its games. The market has bought that: true -108, and -110 gives 0.9% back. Sean Manaea has been scored on in the first in his last two starts (two runs Aug. 27, one Sept. 1), and YRFI +111 beats fair by 1.5%.
The trend read: the streak is environment, already paid for; the small edge sits on the runs side.
Perkins Has Allowed 14 First-Inning Runs In 10 Starts
Blue Jays At Athletics: Soriano Vs. Perkins, YRFI +100
Perkins is clean in six of 10, but the misses were loud: six runs July 3, three July 21, two Aug. 1, three Sept. 3. Toronto has seen a first-inning run in 10 of its last 15, and Sutter Health Park plays to 56%. José Soriano's eight clean firsts in eight Blue Jays starts are why fair is only -106; the +100 on the screen is 2.7% clear of that.
The trend read: nine of Perkins' 14 came in two starts, a blow-up profile, not a drip; a 56% park makes that tail matter.
Both Sides Of The Rays-Braves First Beat Fair
Rays At Braves: Peralta Vs. Smith-Shawver, YRFI +100
The one I keep coming back to is a price. Fair is -106 YRFI and +106 NRFI, and both sides are available above fair: YRFI +100 by 2.8% and NRFI +111 by 2.6%, prices that sum to 97.4%, a negative hold. The runs case is Freddy Peralta, a first-inning run allowed in four of six Tampa Bay starts, against AJ Smith-Shawver, four-for-four clean since July 29.
The trend read: Peralta's firsts point to runs; the negative hold says the market hasn't settled it.
Every true number is OS Pro's no-vig price; the first-inning Odds Screen and the live odds screen show which book holds each number, the Rays-Braves pair included. Code NRFI takes 20% off OS Pro.
More on this: NRFI Picks Today: Only 1 of 15 Games Has Value · MLB Hit Props Today · MLB Strikeout Props Today · MLB Total Bases Props Today · MLB Picks Hub: Today's Live Boards and Series
Tuesday's Full First-Inning Board
| Game (ET) | NRFI / YRFI | Away SP (clean 1st) | Home SP (clean 1st) | Team YRFI (Away / Home) | Park YRFI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guardians At Orioles (6:35) | -110 / +102 | Tanner Bibee (10/10) | Brandon Young (8/10) | 43% / 43% | Camden Yards 36% |
| Twins At Tigers (6:40) | -114 / +100 | Dean Kremer (5/6*) | Drew Anderson (8/8*) | 60% / 49% | Comerica 39% |
| Astros At Phillies (6:40) | +104 / -110 | Hayden Wesneski (6/7*) | Andrew Painter (4/10) | 55% / 53% | Citizens Bank 58% |
| Mets At Marlins (6:40) | -110 / +111 | Sean Manaea (6/10) | Sandy Alcantara (10/10) | 50% / 42% | loanDepot 43% |
| Angels At Red Sox (6:45) | -125 / +120 | Reid Detmers (8/10) | Patrick Sandoval (8/10) | 50% / 52% | Fenway 54% |
| Rockies At Yankees (7:05) | -104 / +102 | Gabriel Hughes (5/10) | Cam Schlittler (8/10) | 60% / 48% | Yankee Stadium 49% |
| Rays At Braves (7:15) | +111 / +100 | Freddy Peralta (2/6*) | AJ Smith-Shawver (4/4*) | 47% / 49% | Truist 47% |
| D-Backs At Royals (7:40) | +100 / -110 | Corbin Burnes (first 2026 start) | Michael Wacha (7/10) | 55% / 51% | Kauffman 55% |
| Pirates At White Sox (7:40) | -116 / +108 | Bubba Chandler (7/10) | Sean Burke (9/10) | 47% / 55% | Rate Field 52% |
| Cubs At Brewers (7:40) | -135 / +118 | David Peterson (7/10) | Jacob Misiorowski (7/10) | 46% / 49% | American Family 54% |
| Nationals At Padres (9:40) | -111 / +104 | Riley Cornelio (first 2026 start) | Casey Mize (5/6*) | 49% / 40% | Petco 41% |
| Rangers At Mariners (9:40) | -120 / +100 | TBD | TBD | 60% / 54% | T-Mobile 54% |
| Blue Jays At Athletics (9:40) | +106 / +100 | José Soriano (8/8*) | Jack Perkins (6/10) | 50% / 54% | Sutter Health 56% |
| Cardinals At Giants (9:45) | -127 / +114 | Quinn Mathews (4/5*) | Landen Roupp (9/10) | 48% / 50% | Oracle 41% |
| Reds At Dodgers (10:10) | -108 / +106 | Nick Lodolo (7/10) | Tarik Skubal (3/6*) | 54% / 50% | Dodger Stadium 51% |
Rate stats: clean first = no first-inning run allowed, over the pitcher's last 10 starts with his current club (*fewer than 10); team/park YRFI = share of 2026 games with a first-inning run by either side (league 50%). Trends describe the past; prices move by first pitch. 21+ where legal.
