The Blackhawks put the C on Connor Bedard on Tuesday, and Kalshi held his Hart Trophy chance at 14 percent, the exact price he carried on Monday. Every other name on the MVP board sat just as still. Chicago gave its franchise player the loudest endorsement a hockey team has to give, and the one market built to react to news did not flinch. Two explanations: The price already knew Bedard was the guy and is waiting on Chicago's standings, or the board is too thin for anything to move it.
The Quick Answer
Bedard is priced at a 14 percent chance to win the 2026-27 Hart Memorial Trophy, the NHL's most valuable player award, on Kalshi, a federally regulated exchange where people trade contracts on real-world outcomes, as of 11:14 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Sept. 15, 2026. In sportsbook terms, 14 percent works out to roughly +614. Six players sit between 24 and 30 percent above him, and Leon Draisaitl matches him at 14. Nothing on the board changed from a day earlier, so the captaincy produced no price movement anywhere. His case runs through Chicago's place in the standings, and the board's pricing deserves a hard look before anyone trades it.
The Numbers
| Item | Figure |
|---|---|
| Connor McDavid, Chance To Win The Hart | 30% |
| Matthew Tkachuk, Chance To Win The Hart | 30% |
| Mitch Marner, Chance To Win The Hart | 29% |
| Sidney Crosby, Chance To Win The Hart | 28% |
| Macklin Celebrini, Chance To Win The Hart | 25% |
| Nathan MacKinnon, Chance To Win The Hart | 24% |
| Leon Draisaitl, Chance To Win The Hart | 14% |
| Connor Bedard, Chance To Win The Hart | 14% |
| Cale Makar, Chance To Win The Hart | 13% |
| Connor Hellebuyck, Chance To Win The Hart | 12% |
| Jack Hughes, Chance To Win The Hart | 11% |
| Nikita Kucherov, Chance To Win The Hart | 10% |
| Auston Matthews, Chance To Win The Hart | 7% |
| Nick Suzuki, Chance To Win The Hart | 6% |
| Sum Of The 14 Listed Hart Prices | 253% |
| Bedard, 2025-26 Goals, Assists, Points | 30, 45, 75 |
| Bedard, 2025-26 Games Played | 69 |
| Bedard, 2024-25 Goals, Assists, Points | 23, 44, 67 |
| Bedard, 2024-25 Games Played | 82 |
| Blackhawks, 2025-26 Record | 29-39-14, 72 points |
| Blackhawks, 2025-26 Central Division Finish | Eighth |
| Blackhawks, Consecutive Seasons Out Of The Playoffs | Six |
Why Chicago Handed The C To A 21-Year-Old
Bedard set career highs in goals, assists and points in 2025-26 and became only the third player in Blackhawks history to record a 30-goal season at age 20 or younger, according to NBC Chicago's Sept. 15 report on the announcement.
That franchise-history line is the organization's own argument for giving the job to a player this young. They did it with Jonathan Toews (who was 20), and he led the Hawks to three Stanley Cups. It is also a statement about identity, because a team that finished near the bottom of its division is telling everyone whose room it is now.
A Six-Man Logjam With No Favorite
Look at the top of this board. Connor McDavid and Matthew Tkachuk are priced at 30 percent each, Mitch Marner at 29, Sidney Crosby at 28, Macklin Celebrini at 25 and Nathan MacKinnon at 24. Six names sit inside six points, and nobody is priced as a true favorite. Award boards usually have somebody out front, and this one has a traffic jam instead.
That shape gives a 14 percent name a real path. Bedard needs to climb into a band nobody owns, which is an easier ask than chasing down one dominant favorite, and a top tier this crowded tends to sort itself out once games start.
The Board Adds Up To 253 Percent
In a race with one winner, true chances add to 100 percent. The 14 names listed here add to 253 percent before counting anyone else on the board. That can happen on Kalshi because each player trades as his own yes-or-no contract, and nothing forces the prices to agree with each other.
Scale every price down by the same proportion and the picture changes. Bedard drops from 14 percent to about 5.5 percent, or roughly +1700, and McDavid and Tkachuk drop to about 12 percent each. That adjustment assumes the overpricing is spread evenly and ignores names off this list, but it puts this board on the same footing as a sportsbook futures price.
The Standings Are The Real Gate
The Blackhawks finished 2025-26 at 29-39-14 for 72 points, eighth in the Central Division and out of the playoffs for a sixth straight season, per NHL.com's 2026-27 season preview. Hart voting has in practice rewarded players whose teams matter in the standings. If that read holds, his 14 percent describes the roster around him at least as much as it describes him.
Last season Bedard recorded 30 goals, 45 assists and 75 points in 69 games, up from 23 goals, 44 assists and 67 points in 82 games the year before, per ESPN. He produced more in 13 fewer games, and a jump that size moves a price when the team comes with it. Another step like it, plus a Chicago season that stays relevant into the spring, is the shape of a move from 14 percent into the mid-20s.
About The Numbers
A Kalshi price is quoted in cents and reads as a chance: A contract at 14 cents corresponds to roughly a 14 percent chance, and it pays 100 cents if the outcome happens. Every Hart figure above comes from Kalshi's NHL Hart Memorial Trophy market at the as-of time in the first section, and these prices change throughout the day, so your screen may show something else. Bedard's goals, assists, points and games are full regular-season totals for 2025-26 and for 2024-25. Chicago's 29-39-14 reads as wins, regulation losses, then overtime and shootout losses combined, which together produced 72 points over the 2025-26 regular season.
