Connor Bedard got the C from the Blackhawks on Tuesday and his Hart Trophy price on Kalshi never moved a cent, and only two explanations fit. Either the market had already priced him as Chicago's guy and is waiting on the standings, or the board is too thin for news to move it. The 14 names on that board add up to 253 percent, which is the strongest evidence for the second one. Bedard sits at 14 percent, about +614 in sportsbook terms, the same price he carried Monday, with six players bunched between 24 and 30 percent above him.
The Numbers
| Player | Chance to win the Hart |
|---|---|
| Connor Bedard | 14% |
| Connor McDavid | 30% |
| Matthew Tkachuk | 30% |
| Mitch Marner | 29% |
| Sidney Crosby | 28% |
| Macklin Celebrini | 25% |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 24% |
| Leon Draisaitl | 14% |
| Cale Makar | 13% |
| Connor Hellebuyck | 12% |
| Jack Hughes | 11% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 10% |
| Auston Matthews | 7% |
| Nick Suzuki | 6% |
Kalshi, as of 11:14 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Sept. 15, 2026. A price quoted in cents reads as a chance, and a contract pays 100 cents if it hits.
Why The Board Adds Up To 253 Percent
In a race with one winner, true chances add to 100 percent. The 14 names above add to 253 percent before counting anyone else. That happens on Kalshi because each player trades as his own yes-or-no contract, and nothing forces the prices to agree with each other.
A board priced that loosely is a board few people are trading, which is the likeliest reason a captaincy announcement moved nothing. Every other name held its price to the cent that day as well.
Scale every price down by the same proportion and the picture changes. Bedard drops from 14 percent to about 5.5 percent, or roughly +1700, and McDavid and Tkachuk drop to about 12 percent each. That adjustment assumes the overpricing is spread evenly and ignores names off this list, but it puts this board on the same footing as a sportsbook futures price.
A Six-Man Logjam With No Favorite
Look at the top of this board. Connor McDavid and Matthew Tkachuk are priced at 30 percent each, Mitch Marner at 29, Sidney Crosby at 28, Macklin Celebrini at 25 and Nathan MacKinnon at 24. Six names sit inside six points, and nobody is priced as a true favorite. Award boards usually have somebody out front, and this one has a traffic jam instead.
That shape gives a 14 percent name a real path. Bedard needs to climb into a band nobody owns, which is an easier ask than chasing down one dominant favorite, and a top tier this crowded tends to sort itself out once games start.
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Chicago's Standings Are The Real Gate
The Blackhawks finished 2025-26 at 29-39-14 for 72 points (29 wins, 39 regulation losses, 14 overtime or shootout losses), eighth in the Central Division and out of the playoffs for a sixth straight season, per NHL.com's 2026-27 season preview. Hart voting has in practice rewarded players whose teams matter in the standings. If that read holds, his 14 percent describes the roster around him at least as much as it describes him.
He has already given the market something to work with. Bedard set career highs with 30 goals, 45 assists and 75 points in 69 games last season, up from 23 goals, 44 assists and 67 points in 82 games the year before, per ESPN, and he became only the third player in Blackhawks history with a 30-goal season at age 20 or younger, according to NBC Chicago. Chicago handed the same letter to Jonathan Toews at 20, and he brought back three Stanley Cups. Another step the size of last season's, plus a Chicago team still playing meaningful games in the spring, is the shape of a move from 14 percent into the mid-20s.
