Prices as of Tuesday, September 15, 2026, 9:30 p.m. ET.
Florida State ran for 230 yards on Alabama last August.
The Seminoles were unranked 13.5-point underdogs. They sent No. 8 Alabama home from Tallahassee with a 31-17 loss that ended the Tide's 23-game winning streak in season openers. Alabama ran 29 times for 87 yards, and Tommy Castellanos ran for 78 by himself. After that, Florida State lost seven of its last nine and finished 5-7, which only made that Saturday look worse for Alabama.
The rematch is in Bryant-Denny. Alabama is 2-0 and has outscored East Carolina and Kentucky 93-27. Florida State is 1-1 after failing to cover against New Mexico State and then losing at home to SMU.
I'm on Alabama, and I'd play it up to -20.5.
Four Points Gone, Still Value Left
The line kept climbing after the Kentucky win, and I still think 19.5 is short of what this matchup is worth.
Exchange prices in cents, sportsbook prices in American odds.
What Went Wrong In Tallahassee
Florida State earned that upset. Alabama threw 43 times because it couldn't run. Ty Simpson finished with 254 passing yards, but not one Alabama touchdown came on the ground. Florida State ran 49 times, 16 of them by Castellanos, who also scored. In the second half, only 26% of Alabama's plays gained enough to count as a successful play. After the loss, Alabama dropped from No. 8 to No. 21.
Castellanos had told everyone it was coming. In June 2025 he said Alabama didn't "have Nick Saban to save them. I just don't see them stopping me." Defensive coordinator Kane Wommack still brings that game up. "You think about the Florida State game last year and we got embarrassed in the first game of the season," he said Monday.
Against East Carolina and Kentucky, Alabama has been the team winning up front.
What's Different This Year
The Backfield Goes Three Deep
Alabama's leading rusher in the 2025 loss had 31 yards. This year, Daniel Hill, EJ Crowell and Trae'shawn Brown have each run for a touchdown in both games. Hill has 151 yards and three touchdowns, including 104 yards at Kentucky, and Crowell and Brown have two touchdowns apiece. Crowell was the No. 1 running back in the 2026 class and is playing as a true freshman. Kevin Riley is getting carries too, and AK Dear hasn't even played yet because of an ankle injury. Altogether the backs have 58 carries for 271 yards and seven touchdowns.
Splitting the carries that many ways keeps Alabama's backs fresh for the fourth quarter, which is bad news for a Florida State defense that SMU just ran on for 155 yards. "It feels good to be able to run the ball, and that's something that we've got to keep doing all year," Hill said after Kentucky.
Kentucky Got One Good Half
Kentucky led 17-13 at halftime. Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell threw two interceptions and was sacked four times before the break. The Tide had 5 rushing yards.
Then Alabama won the second half 32-0. It ran 24 times for 150 yards without allowing a sack and was successful on 58% of its plays. Kentucky got 62 yards out of 26 second-half plays, while its quarterback, Kenny Minchey, was sacked twice in the third quarter. If Russell gives Florida State that first half, 19.5 gets hard. I expect the second-half team to show up.
Opponents Are 1 Of 23 On Third Down
East Carolina went 0 of 9 on third down in Tuscaloosa, and Kentucky went 1 of 14. Nobody in the country has a better third-down defense through two games. Alabama also has seven sacks, 11 tackles for loss and two defensive touchdowns, including Yhonzae Pierre's pick-six against East Carolina. Now it gets a Florida State offense that went 2 of 15 on third down against SMU and missed its first 10.
Two Shaky Games Before The First Road Trip
The New Mexico State win looked fine on the scoreboard, but the Seminoles were 30.5-point favorites and won by 17. The Aggies went 10 of 17 on third down and threw for 272 yards. A week later, SMU's Kevin Jennings threw for 430 yards in Tallahassee. SMU gained 585 yards, averaged 8.8 yards a play, and wasn't sacked once. Florida State won the turnover battle 4-1 and still lost at home. Mike Norvell was blunt about it: "It wasn't good. It's awful. Defensively, we struggled mightily in third down the first two games."
Saturday is also Florida State's first road game of the year. The Seminoles last won one in November 2023 and are 0-11 away from Tallahassee since.
Florida State's roster has 62 newcomers, with 10 of them starting the opener, so this team could look very different by October. Duce Robinson led the ACC in receiving yards last season. Ousmane Kromah has 231 yards on 36 carries, and quarterback Ashton Daniels can run. The defense has allowed 904 yards in two games.
My Take
The line of scrimmage decided last year's game, and that matchup has flipped. Alabama has the backs to attack an FSU defense that just gave up 585 yards, and a defensive front that has been elite at getting off the field on third down.
Alabama at home, with last August on its mind. I'll lay it.
