Kentucky led 17-13 at halftime.Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell threw two interceptions and took four sacks before the break. The Tide had 5 rushing yards. Then Alabama won the second half 32-0: 24 carries for 150 yards, no sacks allowed, Kentucky held to 62 yards on 26 plays. I expect the second-half team to show up.
Prices as of Saturday, September 19, 2026, 10:40 a.m. ET.
Florida State shocked Alabama last August.
The Seminoles were unranked 13.5-point underdogs in Tallahassee. They ran for 230 yards, won 31-17 and ended the Tide's 23-game winning streak in season openers. Alabama went home with 87 rushing yards and a No. 8 ranking it wouldn't keep.
Three numbers say it doesn't happen again. Alabama's opponents are 1 of 23 on third down, the best mark in the country. Those 87 rushing yards are 191 a game now. And Florida State just lost at home to SMU.
The rematch is in Bryant-Denny. I'm on Alabama, and I'd play it up to -20.5.
Four Points Gone, Still Value Left
The line kept climbing after the Kentucky win, and I still think 19.5 is short of what this matchup is worth.
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How Florida State Won Last August
Florida State earned that upset. Alabama threw 43 times because it couldn't run, and in the second half only 26% of its plays gained enough to count as a successful play. Ty Simpson finished with 254 passing yards, but not one Alabama touchdown came on the ground. Tommy Castellanos carried 16 times for 78 yards and scored.
Castellanos had told everyone it was coming. In June 2025 he said Alabama didn't "have Nick Saban to save them. I just don't see them stopping me." Defensive coordinator Kane Wommack still brings that game up. "You think about the Florida State game last year and we got embarrassed in the first game of the season," he said Monday.
What's Different For Alabama
Three Backs, Seven Rushing Touchdowns
Alabama's leading rusher in the 2025 loss had 31 yards. This year, Daniel Hill, EJ Crowell and Trae'shawn Brown have each run for a touchdown in both games. Hill has 151 yards and three touchdowns, 104 of those yards at Kentucky. Crowell and Brown have two touchdowns apiece. Crowell was the No. 1 running back in the 2026 class and is playing as a true freshman. Kevin Riley is getting carries too, and AK Dear hasn't even played yet because of an ankle injury. Altogether the backs have 58 carries for 271 yards and seven touchdowns.
Splitting the carries that many ways keeps Alabama's backs fresh for the fourth quarter, which is bad news for a Florida State defense that SMU just ran on for 155 yards. "It feels good to be able to run the ball, and that's something that we've got to keep doing all year," Hill said after Kentucky.
Opponents Are 1 Of 23 On Third Down
East Carolina went 0 of 9 on third down in Tuscaloosa, and Kentucky went 1 of 14. Nobody in the country has a better third-down defense through two games. Add seven sacks, 11 tackles for loss and two defensive touchdowns, including Yhonzae Pierre's pick-six against East Carolina. Now it gets a Florida State offense that has been just as helpless on third down.
The Run Game Has Switched Sides
Against East Carolina and Kentucky, Alabama has owned the line of scrimmage, by a bigger margin than Florida State owned it last August.
What's Wrong With Florida State
Florida State's roster has 62 newcomers, with 10 of them starting the opener, so this team could look very different by October. Duce Robinson led the ACC in receiving yards last season, Ousmane Kromah has 231 yards on 36 carries, and quarterback Ashton Daniels can run. But the defense has allowed 904 yards in two games.
The SMU Loss Was Worse Than 27-24
Kevin Jennings threw for 430 yards, and SMU gained 585 at 8.8 yards a play. Florida State didn't sack him once. It won the turnover battle 4-1 and still lost at home.
Third Down Is Broken At Both Ends
The offense went 2 of 15 against SMU and missed its first 10. The defense let New Mexico State, a 30.5-point underdog, convert 10 of 17 and throw for 272 yards in a game the Seminoles won by only 17. Mike Norvell after the loss: "It wasn't good. It's awful. Defensively, we struggled mightily in third down the first two games."
No Road Win Since November 2023
Saturday is Florida State's first road game of the year, and the Seminoles are 0-11 away from Tallahassee since their last road win in November 2023. Going nearly three years without a road win is shocking for a program of this caliber.
My Take
The line of scrimmage decided last year's game, and that matchup has flipped. Alabama has the backs to attack an FSU defense that just gave up 585 yards, and a defensive front that has been elite at getting off the field on third down.
Alabama at home, with last August on its mind. I'll lay the points.
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