Fifteen MLB games carry a first-inning market on Friday, August 21, and the visible stories are already paid for. Trevor Rogers takes 14 straight clean firsts into baseball's quietest park. The Pirates and Dodgers start quiet-first arms, yet the value landed on runs. Coors is Coors at 73%. Three first-inning trends, quiet side first.
The Quick Answer
Friday's best takeable first-inning value is the Pirates-Dodgers YRFI at +115 (true +112, +1.4% edge). The biggest raw edge, Cardinals-Phillies NRFI -108 (true -113, +2.0%), is a watch, not a play: St. Louis hadn't named a starter. The full 15-game board is below.
Rogers Hasn't Allowed A First-Inning Run Since May 24
Rays At Orioles: Peralta Vs. Rogers, NRFI -118
Rogers has opened clean in 20 of 23 starts, nothing since May 24, 14 starts ago, on a 1.17 first-inning ERA. Camden Yards is the quietest first-inning park at 34%, the Orioles have a first-inning run in 5 of their last 15, and Freddy Peralta's 19 clean firsts in 25 hold the other half. The payout is gone: NRFI -118 against a true -111 is a -2.6% edge.
The trend read: the board's best NRFI story, fully priced; don't pay -118.
Two Quiet Starters In Los Angeles, Yet The Value Sits On Runs
Pirates At Dodgers: Chandler Vs. Yamamoto, YRFI +115
Markets overpay quiet stories too. Bubba Chandler has kept the first scoreless in 18 of 23 starts, Yoshinobu Yamamoto in 16 of 22, and the Pirates' 47%, Dodgers' 48% and Dodger Stadium's 48% all under the 50.3% league rate. The books shaded the quiet side past fair: NRFI -120 gives back -3.1%; YRFI +115 beats its true +112.
The trend read: a price play, not a runs story; only the plus-money side beats fair.
Coors Games See A First-Inning Run 73% Of The Time
Guardians At Rockies: Cantillo Vs. Gordon, YRFI -118
Coors is the loudest first-inning park at 73%, the Rockies run 64% with a first-inning run in 10 of their last 15, and Tanner Gordon has managed a scoreless first in just 3 of 5. Joey Cantillo's 20 clean firsts in 26 push back, but he allowed a first-inning run on August 15. Unlike Camden, the price hasn't caught up: YRFI -118 is +0.9% against a true -120.
The trend read: small edge, real edge, the rare trend the market hasn't finished charging for.
Friday's Full First-Inning Board
Clean-first counts, team and park YRFI rates, captured prices; times ET.
| Game (First Pitch ET) | Starters (clean firsts) | Team YRFI rates | Park YRFI | Prices |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves At Brewers (4:10) | Sale 19/22 · Misiorowski 19/23 | 50% / 48% | Am. Family 53% | NRFI -190 · YRFI +165 |
| Cardinals At Phillies (6:40) | TBD · Luzardo 24/25 | 46% / 52% | Citizens Bank 57% | NRFI -108 · YRFI +115 |
| Blue Jays At Yankees (7:05) | Fluharty 2/3 · Schlittler 22/26 | 48% / 50% | Yankee Stadium 52% | NRFI -125 · YRFI +108 |
| Giants At Red Sox (7:10) | Webb 18/22 · Gray 16/23 | 47% / 53% | Fenway 54% | NRFI -150 · YRFI +135 |
| Nationals At Marlins (7:10) | Lord 2/3 · Gusto 8/11 | 52% / 43% | loanDepot 43% | NRFI -111 · YRFI +104 |
| Rays At Orioles (7:15) | Peralta 19/25 · Rogers 20/23 | 48% / 45% | Camden 34% | NRFI -118 · YRFI +105 |
| Mets At White Sox (7:40) | Manaea 8/12 · Burke 15/21 | 49% / 55% | Rate Field 52% | NRFI -120 · YRFI +112 |
| Tigers At Royals (8:10) | Melton 9/14 · Cameron 19/23 | 49% / 50% | Kauffman 54% | NRFI -124 · YRFI +106 |
| Athletics At Astros (8:10) | Ginn 18/22 · Wesneski 3/4 | 55% / 57% | Daikin 54% | NRFI -112 · YRFI +100 |
| Angels At Rangers (8:15) | Detmers 19/25 · Gore 18/26 | 52% / 60% | Globe Life 65% | NRFI -121 · YRFI +116 |
| Guardians At Rockies (8:40) | Cantillo 20/26 · Gordon 3/5 | 42% / 64% | Coors 73% | NRFI +117 · YRFI -118 |
| Reds At D-Backs (9:40) | Lodolo 11/14 · Rodriguez 15/25 | 50% / 56% | Chase 57% | NRFI -113 · YRFI +108 |
| Twins At Padres (9:40) | Prielipp 10/17 · TBD | 58% / 39% | Petco 41% | NRFI -105 · YRFI -105 |
| Pirates At Dodgers (10:10) | Chandler 18/23 · Yamamoto 16/22 | 47% / 48% | Dodger Stadium 48% | NRFI -120 · YRFI +115 |
| Cubs At Mariners (10:10) | Boyd 11/15 · Hancock 18/23 | 45% / 53% | T-Mobile 53% | NRFI -115 · YRFI +102 |
The row that stings is Philadelphia: Jesús Luzardo, 24 clean firsts in 25 starts, a 0.00 first-inning ERA, and no play until the Cardinals name their starter. As on Tuesday's board, the trend says where to look; the first-inning Odds Screen says whether any book beats its true, no-vig price, and the live odds screen shops the number across the books; the free bet converter turns stray promos into cash.
OddsShopper devigs every book's first-inning price to its true number. Code NRFI takes 20% off your first month of OddsShopper Pro.
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The Fine Print
Clean firsts count scoreless first innings across a pitcher's starts; a team or park YRFI rate is the share of its 2026 games with a first-inning run by either side (league: 50.3%). Trends describe the past, not the future; prices move until first pitch. MLB betting terms, the NRFI hub and free expert picks cover the rest. 21+ where legal; bet within your means.
