Quick Answer
Seven of Friday's 30 first-inning sides beat fair, six on the runs side. My headline is Dodgers-Tigers YRFI +135 against a true +129, built on Tarik Skubal's rough firsts. The full board, with true odds, is below.
Fifteen MLB games carry a first-inning market Friday, August 28, and three trends drive my card: the Angels have stopped scoring early, the Twins have not, and Comerica's -140 prices Anderson's streak, not Skubal's firsts. Wednesday's board gave five edges; Friday gives seven.
The Angels Have Scored First-Inning Runs In 4 Of Their Last 15
Phillies At Angels — Painter Vs. Detmers, NRFI -103
It's near pick'em: Andrew Painter has allowed 13 first-inning runs in his last 10. The quiet case: Reid Detmers has four straight clean firsts, and the Angels have scored early in just four of their last 15.
The trend read: Painter is in the price; the Angels' quiet month isn't; -103 beats a true -106.
The Twins Have Seen A First-Inning Run In 10 Of Their Last 15
White Sox At Twins — Castillo Vs. Kremer, YRFI -106
Minnesota's 58% team YRFI rate ranks third on the card, with a first-inning run in 10 of its last 15. For Chicago, Luis Castillo has allowed three first-inning runs in five starts since joining the White Sox.
The trend read: -106 against a true -110; I'll take a favorite priced under fair.
Skubal Has Allowed Four First-Inning Runs In Four Dodger Starts
Dodgers At Tigers — Skubal Vs. Anderson, YRFI +135
The -140 juice is earned: Comerica sees a first-inning run 39% of the time, tied with Oracle for quietest on the card, and Drew Anderson owns six clean firsts in six Detroit starts. The juice skips half the inning: Skubal has allowed four first-inning runs in his four Dodger starts.
Worked Example: The +135 Break-Even
+135 breaks even at 42.6%; the true +129 implies 43.7%. That 1.1-point gap is what produces the board-best 2.7% edge, in expected value.
The trend read: the park and Anderson are fully bought; Skubal's firsts are my edge.
My watch items: Mariners-Blue Jays YRFI +141 (true +137) has no named Seattle starter yet, nor the Athletics; the other three positives, Red Sox-Yankees +125, Astros-Mets +115 and Rangers-Brewers +111, grade under a point past fair. Every price above is shoppable on the live odds screen's first-inning board, beside the OS Pro no-vig pricing that turned this board into seven playable numbers. OS Pro has a seven-day free trial; code NRFI takes 20% off your first month.
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Friday's Full First-Inning Board
| Game (ET) | NRFI / YRFI | Away SP (clean 1st) | Home SP (clean 1st) | Team YRFI (Away / Home) | Park YRFI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds At Cubs (2:20) | +100 / -104 | Rhett Lowder (8/10) | David Peterson (6/9*) | 51% / 46% | Wrigley 54% |
| Dodgers At Tigers (6:40) | -140 / +135 | Tarik Skubal (2/4*) | Drew Anderson (6/6*) | 51% / 48% | Comerica 39% |
| Marlins At Nationals (6:45) | -112 / +100 | Eury Pérez (9/10) | Jackson Kent (1/3*) | 43% / 52% | Nationals Park 52% |
| Royals At Guardians (7:10) | -111 / +110 | Michael Wacha (8/10) | Tanner Bibee (9/10) | 50% / 43% | Progressive 45% |
| Astros At Mets (7:10) | -119 / +115 | Hunter Brown (7/10) | Christian Scott (9/10) | 56% / 49% | Citi Field 49% |
| Padres At Rays (7:10) | -110 / +105 | Casey Mize (3/4*) | Shane McClanahan (8/10) | 39% / 47% | Tropicana 49% |
| Mariners At Blue Jays (7:15) | -143 / +141 | TBD | Dylan Cease (9/10) | 55% / 48% | Rogers Centre 51% |
| Rockies At Braves (7:15) | +113 / -120 | Tomoyuki Sugano (3/10) | Grant Holmes (10/10) | 63% / 50% | Truist 49% |
| Red Sox At Yankees (7:15) | -130 / +125 | Patrick Sandoval (6/8*) | Cam Schlittler (7/10) | 53% / 49% | Yankee Stadium 50% |
| Rangers At Brewers (7:40) | -120 / +111 | Cody Bradford (3/4*) | Logan Henderson (9/10) | 60% / 47% | American Family 53% |
| White Sox At Twins (8:10) | +104 / -106 | Luis Castillo (3/5*) | Dean Kremer (4/4*) | 55% / 58% | Target Field 49% |
| Pirates At Cardinals (8:15) | -120 / +115 | Jared Jones (8/10) | Quinn Mathews (2/3*) | 47% / 47% | Busch 42% |
| Phillies At Angels (9:38) | -103 / +106 | Andrew Painter (5/10) | Reid Detmers (8/10) | 53% / 52% | Angel Stadium 54% |
| Orioles At Athletics (9:40) | +106 / -113 | Brandon Young (8/10) | TBD | 44% / 55% | Sutter Health 57% |
| D-Backs At Giants (10:15) | -106 / +100 | Kohl Drake (2/4*) | Blade Tidwell (2/4*) | 56% / 48% | Oracle 39% |
Rate stats: clean first = no first-inning run allowed, counted for his current club (*under 10 starts); team/park YRFI = share of games with a first-inning run by either side (league avg 50%). Trends describe the past and prices move by first pitch; analysis, not a wager directive. 21+, legal states only.
