Quick Answer
Five of the 30 first-inning sides on Wednesday's 15-game board price past fair, and the three real edges all sit on the runs side. The biggest is Red Sox-Marlins YRFI +130 against a true +123, a 3.3% edge priced up against Sonny Gray's 11 straight clean firsts. The full board, every price against true odds, is below.
Prices pulled 9:55 a.m. ET; the day's first pitch is 1:10 p.m. ET.
Fifteen MLB games carry a first-inning market Wednesday, August 26, and the three stories I'm writing up all point the same way: Dustin May's last first inning was a four-spot the quiet price ignores, Freddy Peralta has been tagged in three of his four starts as a Ray, and Miami's market bought Gray's streak past fair. Saturday's board handed back 11 edges; Wednesday's hands back five. Smallest number first; the headline lands last.
Dustin May's Last First Inning Was A Four-Spot
Brewers At Mets — May Vs. Stock, YRFI +112
The market prices this first as settled quiet, and neither arm's track record backs that. May is clean in four of five starts for Milwaukee, but the miss was his most recent: four first-inning runs last Wednesday. Robert Stock has made four starts for the Mets and took a three-run first on Aug. 8. Everything else sits mid-range, both teams' YRFI rates in the 47-49% band, Citi Field a tick under the league's 50% baseline.
The trend read: two short-sample arms with live blow-up risk, priced at -112 like settled quiet. The +112 back beats its true +108.
Peralta Has Been Tagged In Three Of His Four Starts As A Ray
Rays At Tigers — Peralta Vs. Melton, YRFI +122
The quiet case here is legitimate: Comerica Park sees a first-inning run 40% of the time, the second-quietest building on today's card, and both teams run sub-50% YRFI rates. That's why NRFI is juiced to -127 against a true -116. The juice skips the visitor's arm. Peralta has allowed a first-inning run in three of his four starts for Tampa Bay, four runs in that span, and Troy Melton's eight clean firsts in 10 only cover half the inning.
The trend read: the building and the team rates are in the price; the starter who keeps getting tagged isn't. The overshoot leaves +122 past fair.
Sonny Gray Hasn't Allowed A First-Inning Run Since June 18
Red Sox At Marlins — Gray Vs. Gusto, YRFI +130
Here's the number I keep coming back to. Gray's streak is real: 11 straight clean firsts, one of two 11-start runs on this card alongside Kyle Bradish. Ryan Gusto is clean in eight of 10, loanDepot park runs 43%, and Boston's own bats have scored a first-inning run just three times in its last 15 games. I believe every piece of that, and so does the market: all of it is packed into NRFI -130 against a true -123. On an efficient board, the leftover is the play.
The Worked Example: What +130 Breaks Even At
+130 breaks even at 43.5%; the board's true +123 puts this first inning at 44.8%. Buying that 1.3-point gap at plus-money odds is what produces the board-best 3.3% edge, a number measured in expected value, not in raw probability points.
The trend read: the streak is fully bought, and then some. The only number past fair is the one that pays when it ends.
Where Wednesday's Board Goes From Here
The other two positives are quiet-side scraps, Rockies-Nationals NRFI +112 and Cubs-D-backs NRFI -102, each less than a point past fair: I treat both as shopping targets, not stories, especially with Washington's Matt Waldron carrying zero starts in the 2026 log. My watch items: the Yankees had no starter named at write time, and every number here moves as lineups post.
New to these markets? Our NRFI betting explainer covers how first-inning prices get built, how to remove the vig shows where those true odds come from, and the MLB betting terms glossary squares away the shorthand.
Run the card yourself: the first-inning Odds Screen shops every NRFI/YRFI number across 100-plus books, the full live odds screen does the same for game lines so you can shop the number across every major book, and OS Pro's no-vig pricing prints the true line beside each so you can find the sides that beat fair. If a plus-money win leaves you a free bet, the free bet converter turns it into cash value. OS Pro comes with a seven-day free trial, and code NRFI takes 20% off your first month.
Wednesday's Full First-Inning Board
| Game (ET) | NRFI / YRFI | Away SP (clean 1st, L10) | Home SP (clean 1st, L10) | Team YRFI (Away / Home) | Park YRFI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays At Tigers (1:10) | -127 / +122 | Freddy Peralta (1/4*) | Troy Melton (8/10) | 48% / 49% | Comerica 40% |
| Cubs At D-Backs (3:40) | -102 / +100 | Matthew Boyd (7/10) | Eduardo Rodriguez (7/10) | 46% / 56% | Chase 56% |
| Reds At Giants (3:45) | -123 / +116 | Nick Lodolo (8/10) | Landen Roupp (8/10) | 51% / 48% | Oracle 39% |
| Guardians At Angels (4:07) | -109 / +102 | Joey Cantillo (7/10) | Grayson Rodriguez (5/10) | 43% / 51% | Angel Stadium 54% |
| Pirates At Padres (4:10) | -101 / -102 | Bubba Chandler (8/10) | Randy Vásquez (6/10) | 48% / 39% | Petco 41% |
| Phillies At Mariners (4:10) | -140 / +130 | Jesús Luzardo (9/10) | Bryan Woo (8/10) | 53% / 54% | T-Mobile 55% |
| Red Sox At Marlins (6:40) | -130 / +130 | Sonny Gray (10/10) | Ryan Gusto (8/10) | 52% / 43% | loanDepot 43% |
| Rockies At Nationals (6:45) | +112 / -114 | Tanner Gordon (4/6*) | Matt Waldron (0 starts*) | 63% / 52% | Nationals Park 52% |
| Astros At Yankees (7:05) | +100 / -113 | Peter Lambert (7/10) | TBD | 56% / 49% | Yankee Stadium 50% |
| Royals At Blue Jays (7:07) | -107 / -109 | Randy Dobnak (6/7*) | Spencer Miles (4/4*) | 50% / 48% | Rogers Centre 51% |
| Brewers At Mets (7:10) | -112 / +112 | Dustin May (4/5*) | Robert Stock (3/4*) | 47% / 49% | Citi Field 49% |
| Dodgers At Braves (7:15) | +107 / -114 | Roki Sasaki (9/10) | AJ Smith-Shawver (2/2*) | 50% / 49% | Truist 47% |
| Rangers At White Sox (7:40) | -115 / +108 | MacKenzie Gore (7/10) | Sean Burke (8/10) | 60% / 55% | Rate Field 52% |
| Orioles At Cardinals (7:45) | -115 / +102 | Kyle Bradish (10/10) | Michael McGreevy (7/10) | 44% / 47% | Busch 42% |
| Twins At Athletics (9:05) | +118 / -132 | Connor Prielipp (5/10) | J.T. Ginn (8/10) | 58% / 54% | Sutter Health 56% |
*Fewer than 10 counted starts (small sample). Clean-first counts cover a starter's games for his current club in the 2026 log; "0 starts" = none in the 2026 game log.
Rate stats: a clean first is a start with no first-inning run allowed; team and park YRFI rates are the share of games with a first-inning run by either side (league average 50%). Trends describe what has happened; prices move by first pitch. Board analysis, not a wager directive. 21+, legal states only.
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FAQ
What are the best NRFI picks today, Wednesday, August 26? Five of the board's 30 sides price past fair, and the three real edges are all YRFI: Red Sox-Marlins +130 (true +123) against Sonny Gray's streak, Rays-Tigers +122 (true +116) behind Freddy Peralta's rough firsts, and Brewers-Mets +112 (true +108). The two quiet-side positives grade under a point: reads to shop, not chase.
What do NRFI and YRFI mean? NRFI ("no runs first inning") cashes if neither team scores in the first inning; YRFI ("yes runs first inning") cashes if either team does. It's a single-inning bet on both starters and the top of both lineups.
Where can I shop first-inning odds? The OddsShopper first-inning Odds Screen lists NRFI/YRFI prices across 100-plus books, and OS Pro's no-vig pricing shows the true line next to each so you can find the best number.
