Quick Answer
Eleven of the 30 first-inning sides on Saturday's 15-game board price past fair. The one I care about is Twins-Padres YRFI +113 against a true +103, a 5.1% edge: Minnesota's third-loudest first inning in baseball walking into San Diego's fully priced quiet. Two NRFI spots, Arizona and Houston, carry the rest of the headline value. The full board, every price against true odds, is below.
Prices pulled 8:25 a.m. ET; the day's first pitch is 1:35 p.m. ET.
Fifteen MLB games carry a first-inning market Saturday, August 22: Michael Soroka's nine clean firsts meet even money in a 58% park, Jacob Lopez's nine-of-10 run hides inside a juiced number in Houston, and Minnesota's loud first meets a quiet-price tax at Petco. Thursday's nine-game board handed back four edges; Saturday's hands back 11. Quiet side first; the biggest number lands last.
Even Money For Nine Clean Firsts In A 58% Park
Reds At D-Backs — Lowder Vs. Soroka, NRFI +100
Chase Field sees a first-inning run 58% of the time and Arizona's own rate is 57%, top-five in MLB, so the market leaned loud. The arms lean the other way: Michael Soroka is clean in nine of his last 10 starts, five straight, Rhett Lowder in seven of 10, and the Reds have scored a first-inning run twice in their last 15 games. That environment tilt is why NRFI sits at even money against a true -104.
The trend read: the building juiced the runs side; the form on the mound got left at even money.
Houston's Loud Environment Is Already In The Number, And Then Some
Athletics At Astros — Lopez Vs. Brown, NRFI -106
The surface says runs: a first-inning run in 10 of the Athletics' last 15 games, Houston at 57%, Daikin Park at 53%. The counterweight is Jacob Lopez, one first-inning run allowed across his last 10 starts, clean in nine. Hunter Brown, tagged in the first in his most recent start but clean in seven of 10, is the shakier half, and the market priced all that loudness a shade past fair: NRFI -106 against a true -110.
The trend read: a thin 1.8% edge, but a real one. The environment is priced; Lopez isn't.
Minnesota's Loud First Meets San Diego's Quiet Tax
Twins At Padres — Kremer Vs. Mize, YRFI +113
Here's the number I keep coming back to. San Diego sees a first-inning run in a league-low 40% of its games, Petco runs 42%, and Dean Kremer and Casey Mize are a combined six-for-six on clean firsts. The market bought all of it at NRFI -115 against a true -103. What that price ignores: both spotless records are three-start samples, and Minnesota brings the third-loudest first inning in baseball, 58% with a run in 10 of its last 15 games.
The Worked Example: What +113 Breaks Even At
+113 breaks even at 46.9%; the board's true +103 puts this first inning closer to 49.3%. Buying that gap at plus money is what produces the board-best 5.1% edge in expected value.
The trend read: the quiet trend is real and fully bought. The loud team crossing into it is what's underpriced.
Where Saturday's Board Goes From Here
The featured three average a 3.0% edge; the other eight positives average under 1%, Pirates-Dodgers YRFI +125 the best of them at 1.6%. Rays-Orioles is the card's oddity, both sides a tick past fair at -114/+115 because the hold there has been shopped to almost nothing. I treat all eight as shopping targets, not stories. Watch items: St. Louis had no starter named at write time, Seattle's Kade Anderson brings zero starts in the 2026 log, and prices move as lineups post.
New to these markets? Our NRFI betting explainer covers how first-inning prices get built, how to remove the vig shows where those true odds come from, and Thursday's edition is what a four-edge board looks like.
Run the card yourself: the first-inning Odds Screen shops every NRFI/YRFI number across 100-plus books, the full live odds screen does the same for game lines, and OS Pro's no-vig pricing prints the true line beside each so you can find the sides that beat fair. If a plus-money win leaves you a free bet, the free bet converter turns it into cash value. OS Pro comes with a seven-day free trial, and code NRFI takes 20% off your first month.
Saturday's Full First-Inning Board
| Game (ET) | NRFI / YRFI | Away SP (clean 1st, L10) | Home SP (clean 1st, L10) | Team YRFI (Away / Home) | Park YRFI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twins At Padres (8:40) | -115 / +113 | Dean Kremer (3/3*) | Casey Mize (3/3*) | 58% / 40% | Petco 42% |
| Reds At D-Backs (8:10) | +100 / +100 | Rhett Lowder (7/10) | Michael Soroka (9/10) | 50% / 57% | Chase 58% |
| Athletics At Astros (7:10) | -106 / +105 | Jacob Lopez (9/10) | Hunter Brown (7/10) | 54% / 57% | Daikin 53% |
| Pirates At Dodgers (7:15) | -130 / +125 | Jared Jones (8/10) | Tarik Skubal (2/3*) | 48% / 49% | Dodger Stadium 48% |
| Nationals At Marlins (4:10) | -126 / +122 | Jake Irvin (8/10) | Eury Pérez (9/10) | 52% / 43% | loanDepot 42% |
| Braves At Brewers (2:10) | -120 / +117 | Martín Pérez (7/10) | Logan Henderson (9/10) | 49% / 47% | Am Fam 52% |
| Cubs At Mariners (7:15) | -113 / +111 | David Peterson (6/8*) | Kade Anderson (0 starts*) | 46% / 54% | T-Mobile 54% |
| Rays At Orioles (7:05) | -114 / +115 | Shane McClanahan (8/10) | Brandon Young (7/10) | 48% / 45% | Camden 35% |
| Mets At White Sox (7:10) | -108 / +106 | Christian Scott (8/10) | Luis Castillo (3/4*) | 49% / 55% | Rate Field 51% |
| Giants At Red Sox (7:15) | -120 / +117 | Blade Tidwell (1/3*) | Patrick Sandoval (6/7*) | 46% / 52% | Fenway 53% |
| Guardians At Rockies (8:10) | +125 / -129 | Tanner Bibee (9/10) | Gabriel Hughes (3/7*) | 43% / 64% | Coors 73% |
| Tigers At Royals (7:15) | -111 / +104 | Drew Anderson (5/5*) | Michael Wacha (8/10) | 48% / 50% | Kauffman 53% |
| Cardinals At Phillies (6:05) | +106 / -115 | TBD | Andrew Painter (5/10) | 46% / 52% | Citizens Bank 58% |
| Blue Jays At Yankees (1:35) | -165 / +150 | Dylan Cease (8/10) | Ryan Weathers (7/10) | 48% / 49% | Yankee Stadium 51% |
| Angels At Rangers (7:05) | +100 / -111 | Ryan Johnson (8/10) | Cody Bradford (3/3*) | 51% / 60% | Globe Life 64% |
*Fewer than 10 starts this season (small sample); "0 starts" = no starts in the 2026 game log.
Rate stats: a clean first is a start with no first-inning run allowed; team and park YRFI rates are the share of games with a first-inning run by either side (league average 50%). Trends describe what has happened; prices move by first pitch. Board analysis, not a wager directive. 21+, legal states only.
- NRFI Picks Today: Only 1 of 15 Games Has Value
- MLB Hit Props Today
- MLB Home Run Picks Today (8/22): Shohei Ohtani & More
- MLB Strikeout Props Today
- MLB Total Bases Props Today
FAQ
What are the best NRFI picks today, Saturday, August 22? Eleven of the board's 30 sides price past fair. The biggest edge is a runs side, Twins-Padres YRFI +113 (true +103), and the quiet-side spot I trust most is Reds-D-backs NRFI +100 (true -104) behind Michael Soroka's nine clean firsts in 10 starts, with Athletics-Astros NRFI -106 (true -110) behind Jacob Lopez close behind. The other eight positives grade at 1.6% or less: reads to shop, not chase.
What do NRFI and YRFI mean? NRFI ("no runs first inning") cashes if neither team scores in the first inning; YRFI ("yes runs first inning") cashes if either team does. It's a single-inning bet on both starters and the top of both lineups.
Where can I shop first-inning odds? The OddsShopper first-inning Odds Screen lists NRFI/YRFI prices across 100-plus books, and OS Pro's no-vig pricing shows the true line next to each so you can find the best number.
