Reds vs Diamondbacks Today: First Pitch, Pitchers & Moneyline
First pitch Sat 8:10 PM ET. On the mound: Rhett Lowder (Reds) vs Michael Soroka (Diamondbacks). Moneyline: Reds +149 (Betcris) at Diamondbacks -155 (OnyxOdds) — best prices across 4 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
The Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks board opens with Corbin Carroll at +525 to homer. Every priced bat for tonight is below, with the best book on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Toglia (CIN) | +475 | PointsBet | 17.4% | 1 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | +525 | Fanatics | 16.0% | 37 |
| Sal Stewart (CIN) | +600 | Unibet | 14.3% | 36 |
| Eugenio Suárez (CIN) | +600 | Unibet | 14.3% | 34 |
| Max Kepler (ARI) | +650 | Fanatics | 13.3% | 34 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | +650 | Unibet | 13.3% | 37 |
| JJ Bleday (CIN) | +650 | Fanatics | 13.3% | 36 |
| Lars Nootbaar (ARI) | +725 | BetMGM 🎁 | 12.1% | 31 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 22, 2026 · 01:05 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Chase Field: park index 105.4 · roof/indoors — weather neutral.
- Sal Stewart (CIN) — punishes four-seam fastballs 16% of the time, and that is 32% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +550 at Fanatics
- Eugenio Suárez (CIN) — 33% of his damage flies pull-side · homers every 15 PA against righties. (model confidence B)
- books: best +525 at Fanatics
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — homers every 21 PA against righties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +500 at Fanatics
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +650 at BetMGM
- Gabriel Moreno (AZ) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +950 at Fanatics
- Tim Tawa (AZ) — homers every 28 PA against righties. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1050 at Fanatics
- JJ Bleday (CIN) — 31% of his damage flies pull-side. (model confidence B)
- books: best +600 at Fanatics
- Matt McLain (CIN) — no edge in the conditions — this starter's mix is an awkward one for him. (model confidence B)
- books: best +800 at Fanatics
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Cobi O'Connell on Tails (#6 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+615). Bet now → FanDuel
- KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS on Tails likes Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline (-141). Bet now
- DylansDailyLocks on Tails likes Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline (-140). Bet now
- Bank of Dennis on Tails likes Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-137). Bet now
- FOTP on Tails (#8 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Eduardo Rodriguez Under 5.5 Total Strikeouts (-146). Bet now
- The Bet Baba on Tails likes Arizona Diamondbacks -0.5 Run Line 1st5 (+110). Bet now → FanDuel
More from these experts on Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks. Cobi O'Connell, FOTP, KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS, The Bet Baba post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers · Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners · Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies · Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals · Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers · Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres · New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox · Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers · San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
