Mets vs White Sox Today: First Pitch, Pitchers & Moneyline
First pitch Sat 7:10 PM ET. On the mound: Christian Scott (Mets) vs Luis Castillo (White Sox). Moneyline: Mets +106 (OnyxOdds) at White Sox -109 (Betcris) — best prices across 4 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Munetaka Murakami at +319 headlines the New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox home run board — 8 bats priced to go deep tonight, and the board below shows the book paying the most on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munetaka Murakami (CHW) | +319 | Polymarket 🎁 | 23.9% | 36 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | +363 | ProphetX | 21.6% | 38 |
| Colson Montgomery (CHW) | +381 | Polymarket 🎁 | 20.8% | 36 |
| Miguel Vargas (CHW) | +434 | Polymarket 🎁 | 18.7% | 36 |
| Jared Young (NYM) | +519 | ProphetX | 16.2% | 34 |
| Carson Benge (NYM) | +559 | ProphetX | 15.2% | 36 |
| Francisco Alvarez (NYM) | +579 | Underdog 🎁 | 14.7% | 34 |
| Luis Robert (NYM) | +600 | Fanatics | 14.3% | 35 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 22, 2026 · 01:11 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Rate Field: park index 102.4 · wind 8 mph.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — 20% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · homers every 13 PA against righties · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +319 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +319 · ProphetX +299
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) — 31% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind. (model confidence B)
- books: best +381 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +381
- Francisco Lindor (NYM) — punishes four-seam fastballs 14% of the time, and that is 43% of what this starter throws · 33% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · homers every 24 PA against righties. (model confidence B)
- books: best +363 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +358 · ProphetX +363
- Brett Baty (NYM) — 12% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · homers every 26 PA against righties. (model confidence B)
- books: best +625 at Bet365 | exchanges: NoVig +506
- Jared Young (NYM) — punishes four-seam fastballs 14% of the time, and that is 43% of what this starter throws · 24% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind. (model confidence C)
- books: best +519 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +519 · NoVig +471
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) — punishes sliders 14% of the time, and that is 33% of what this starter throws · 30% of his damage flies pull-side. (model confidence B)
- books: best +434 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +434
- Carson Benge (NYM) — 10% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +539 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +539
- A.J. Ewing (NYM) — 18% of his damage flies pull-side, into tonight's wind · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +700 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +698
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- CharlieChip on Tails likes Chicago White Sox Moneyline (-118). Bet now
- KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS on Tails likes Chicago White Sox Moneyline (-145). Bet now
- Bank of Dennis on Tails likes these plays:
- BGrebbs on Tails (#7 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes these plays:
- FOTP on Tails (#8 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Sean Manaea Over 5.5 Total Strikeouts (-144). Bet now
- SEvansBets on Tails (#10 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Both Teams Over 0.5 Total Runs 1I (+127). Bet now
- Nothin' But Dingers on Tails likes Brett Baty Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+850). Bet now → Bet365
- JediModi on Tails likes Miguel Vargas Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+340).
- EdgeAI Plus on Tails (#5 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Chicago White Sox Moneyline (-140). Bet now → DraftKings
More from these experts on New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox. BGrebbs, CharlieChip, EdgeAI Plus, FOTP, JediModi, KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS, SEvansBets post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers · Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners · Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies · Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals · Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers · Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres · Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers · San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
